China

[crs223]

Can’t a country just digitally cancel your passport?  Why does it have to be physically collected?

[backtothebeach]

45 minutes ago, crs223 said:

Can’t a country just digitally cancel your passport?  Why does it have to be physically collected?

Plausibile deniability. "Oh no, there are no travel bans in China. We have rule of law!"

[james22]

I give you credit for betting your beliefs, Luke.

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-10/pboc-launches-71-billion-liquidity-tool-for-stock-investors

[Kizion]

3 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-10/pboc-launches-71-billion-liquidity-tool-for-stock-investors

 

It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? 

Edited October 10 by Kizion

[WFF]

1 hour ago, Kizion said:

 

It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? 

If it works as intended, it is the first of many 71B as prescribe in late September.  This is implementation, and help boost sentiment.  Stock crazed bug is in the air from people on the ground zero.

[UK]

1 hour ago, Kizion said:

 

It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? 

I think their goal is to send a message in the first place, rather than to acctualy buy large part of the market to backstop it. Sometimes strong words is enough, so far it is more than just words and if it is not enough, perhaps they can always opt for 'unlimited' version later:)

[WayWardCloud]

China is starting a massive military exercise around Taiwan called Joint Sword-2024B. 2024"A" was last May and lasted for two days. Could this be the start of an actual invasion? It's too soon to tell but if I put on my conspiracy hat a lot of elements are lined up.

 

- October and April are the best two months to attack because of the weather.

- Current US president is mentally impaired from old age.

- US weapons are spread thin around the world with Russia + Middle East fronts

- Weeks before a tight election where Americans are already at each others throat and ready to claim election interference. What if China has a plan to sow enough mistrust about the results that neither side recognizes the other's right to govern?

- They just propped up their stock market 25% on little more than announcements, it could have been to bait western money in while telling party friends at the top to unload their shares.

- Demography shows time is not anymore on the Chinese side.

- AI difference between the two is actually supposed to widen in the next few years according to Ex Google CEO Eric Schmidt giving the US an advantage, so better attack quickly now?

 

Hopefully I'm just scaring myself

Edited October 14 by WayWardCloud

[crs223]

3 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

China is starting a massive military exercise around Taiwan called Joint Sword-2024B. 2024"A" was last May and lasted for two days. Could this be the start of an actual invasion?

 

According to ChatGPT, these are common:

 

Here is a list of large-scale military exercises that have taken place in Asia over the past 20 years (from around 2004 to 2024). These exercises often involve thousands of troops, advanced military hardware, and international collaboration. The list covers major exercises involving countries across Asia, as well as joint exercises between Asian nations and extra-regional powers:

1. Vostok Series (Russia)

• Timeframe: 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022
• Participants: Russia, China, India, Mongolia, Belarus, and other countries (varies by year)
• Scale: Tens of thousands of troops
• Details: These are among the largest military exercises held in the Eastern Military District of Russia, which extends into Asia. The exercises focus on combined arms operations, live-fire drills, and international coordination.
• Notable Edition: Vostok 2018 involved around 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft, and 36,000 vehicles. It was the largest Russian military exercise since the Cold War.

2. Cobra Gold (Thailand)

• Timeframe: Annual (since the 1980s)
• Participants: Thailand, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and other invited countries
• Scale: Over 10,000 troops regularly, with larger numbers in certain years
• Details: Cobra Gold is the largest joint military exercise in Southeast Asia, co-hosted by Thailand and the U.S. It includes amphibious landings, live-fire drills, and humanitarian exercises.

3. Malabar (India)

• Timeframe: Annual (since 1992, larger scales in recent years)
• Participants: India, the U.S., Japan (since 2007), and Australia (since 2020)
• Scale: Large naval forces, carrier strike groups
• Details: A significant naval exercise originally between India and the U.S., it expanded to include Japan and Australia in response to growing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific. It focuses on anti-submarine warfare, carrier operations, and maritime security.

4. Joint Sea (China-Russia)

• Timeframe: 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023
• Participants: China and Russia
• Scale: Large naval and air forces
• Details: These joint naval exercises focus on enhancing interoperability between the Chinese and Russian navies, including anti-submarine operations, surface warfare, and air defense. Exercises have occurred in the East China Sea, the Sea of Japan, and the Baltic Sea.

5. Talisman Sabre (Australia)

• Timeframe: Biennial (since 2005)
• Participants: Australia, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and others
• Scale: Approximately 30,000 troops
• Details: Although held in Australia, Talisman Sabre involves many Asian nations. It focuses on amphibious landings, air combat, and large-scale multinational operations, serving as a showcase of interoperability between Asia-Pacific forces.

6. Shaheen Series (China-Pakistan)

• Timeframe: Annual (since 2011)
• Participants: China and Pakistan
• Scale: Large-scale air forces
• Details: Focused on air warfare, Shaheen exercises involve fighter jets, bombers, and support aircraft. It serves as a key element of defense cooperation between China and Pakistan, testing air combat skills and coordination.

7. Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC)

• Timeframe: Biennial (since 1971, with many Asian participants)
• Participants: U.S., Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Australia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and others
• Scale: The world's largest naval exercise, involving 25,000–30,000 personnel
• Details: Although centered in the Pacific, many Asian nations participate. RIMPAC includes large naval, air, and amphibious forces, focusing on disaster relief, maritime security, and combat training.

8. Foal Eagle (South Korea-U.S.)

• Timeframe: Annual (discontinued in 2019)
• Participants: South Korea, U.S.
• Scale: Up to 300,000 South Korean and 30,000 U.S. troops in some years
• Details: Foal Eagle was one of the largest combined field training exercises in the world, focusing on the defense of South Korea against potential aggression from North Korea. It involved ground, air, and naval forces in full-scale combat scenarios.

9. Key Resolve/Ulchi Freedom Guardian (South Korea-U.S.)

• Timeframe: Annual (until 2019)
• Participants: South Korea, U.S.
• Scale: Similar in size to Foal Eagle
• Details: These command post exercises (CPX) simulated war scenarios in the event of conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Ulchi Freedom Guardian often involved cyber warfare components and leadership simulations.

10. Zapad (Russia-Belarus)

• Timeframe: Biennial (latest in 2021)
• Participants: Russia, Belarus, and observers from China, India, Pakistan, Mongolia
• Scale: Approximately 200,000 troops (2021)
• Details: While primarily focused on Europe, Zapad 2021 had Asian components and observers, reflecting growing Russia-China military cooperation and the involvement of Central Asian partners.

11. Garuda Shield (Indonesia)

• Timeframe: Annual (since 2007)
• Participants: Indonesia, the U.S., Australia, Japan, and other ASEAN nations
• Scale: Over 5,000 troops
• Details: This exercise has grown significantly in scope, focusing on jungle warfare, humanitarian assistance, disaster response, and combined arms operations. It's one of the most important Southeast Asian military drills.

12. Peace Mission (SCO Anti-Terror Exercise)

• Timeframe: Biennial (since 2007)
• Participants: Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan)
• Scale: Over 10,000 troops
• Details: Focused on counter-terrorism and military cooperation, Peace Mission involves joint maneuvers, tactical operations, and counter-insurgency exercises, reflecting security concerns in Central Asia.

13. Yudh Abhyas (India-U.S.)

• Timeframe: Annual (since 2004)
• Participants: India and the U.S.
• Scale: Approximately 5,000 troops
• Details: A bilateral exercise that focuses on counter-insurgency and anti-terrorism operations, humanitarian relief, and peacekeeping missions. It involves infantry, air, and mechanized forces.

14. Shanti Path (India-Nepal)

• Timeframe: Annual
• Participants: India and Nepal
• Scale: Hundreds to a few thousand troops
• Details: This is one of several bilateral exercises between India and its neighbors, focusing on peacekeeping operations and disaster response.

[WayWardCloud]

Joint Sword-2024B is already over

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-15/china-moves-to-tax-the-ultra-rich-for-overseas-investment-gains

 

China Moves to Tax the Ultra-Rich for Overseas Investment Gains

The move underscores growing urgency within the government to expand its sources of revenue.

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-10-14/bmw-mercedes-and-volkswagen-bmw-mbg-vow-evs-struggle-to-compete-in-china

 

VW, BMW and Mercedes Are Getting Left in the Dust by China’s EVs

After falling behind on tech trends, German carmakers are scrambling to recover in their biggest and most lucrative market.

[james22]

 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

I was looking for a Tyson Foods thread and didn't find one. But thought I'd place it here. I'll play @Luke's advocate.

 

https://www.5newsonline.com/article/news/local/department-labor-child-labor-tyson/527-21c0bd01-6313-45a7-843a-f5f00582b841

 

Why does the western media that harps about sweatshops in China, conveniently forget to cover this news.

[Luke]

https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/notes-chinafile/its-too-convenient-say-xi-jinping-second-mao

 

“It’s Too Convenient to Say That Xi Jinping Is a Second Mao”

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-16/china-s-wild-stock-market-swings-hurt-a-21-trillion-bull-case

 

“Close securities account”

 

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/apple-s-tim-cook-visits-china-talks-data-security-with-minister

 

Apple’s Tim Cook Visits China, Talks Data Security With Minister

 

Apple Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook discussed investments, data security and cloud services with a senior Chinese official during his second trip to the nation this year.

 

“Apple will continue to grow its investments in China and help the high-quality development of the supply chain,” Cook was quoted as saying in the WeChat post

 

 

[james22]

What is increasingly clear, though, is that the Beijing of today will seemingly not much longer tolerate even the mild, limited capitalism that produced today’s economy. It was never really sustainable in their political context. Capitalism requires failure, change, “creative destruction.” Leaders have to take their hands off the wheel and let bad things happen.

 

We have problems doing that even in the US. We keep bailing out failed banks, for example. What we should do is safeguard only the depositors while letting shareholders and unsecured creditors bear the losses. But that means people who made bad choices have to suffer. Even auto and steel companies.

 

Xi Jinping has no problem letting people suffer, but he won’t let market forces decide who it will be. What if the market decides China needs new leaders? That’s unacceptable. The government will always have at least a thumb on the scale… and maybe a foot.

 

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/broken-china

[TB]

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-industrial-profits-plunge-september-extending-slump-2024-10-27/

 

Edited October 28 by TB

[nsx5200]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-wont-give-failing-economic-model

"Rather, his[Xi's] top-down approach to governance privileges ideological unity over populist concessions and favors state-led investment over individual fiscal support."

"Although ordinary Chinese citizens may have limited agency, collectively they can exert economic pressure on Beijing. By tightening their wallets and prioritizing savings, they effectively express a quiet but potent vote of no confidence in the country’s direction."

 

The power of the people is stronger than it seems in that top-down system.

[Castanza]

30 minutes ago, nsx5200 said:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-wont-give-failing-economic-model

"Rather, his[Xi's] top-down approach to governance privileges ideological unity over populist concessions and favors state-led investment over individual fiscal support."

"Although ordinary Chinese citizens may have limited agency, collectively they can exert economic pressure on Beijing. By tightening their wallets and prioritizing savings, they effectively express a quiet but potent vote of no confidence in the country’s direction."

 

The power of the people is stronger than it seems in that top-down system.

 

Mhmm and who controls the currency? Didn't China experiment with a currency that expires the other year? 

[nsx5200]

37 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Mhmm and who controls the currency? Didn't China experiment with a currency that expires the other year? 

Steering consumer spending through currency manipulation has its own set of systemic risks, which the Chinese government might not want to go down.

 

The Chinese digital currency that expires, was a promotional thing to jump start the adoption as well as running trials.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/15/a-2024-overview-of-the-e-cny-chinas-digital-yuan/

[Castanza]

The entire history of China pretty much boils down to them prioritizing the survival of they system. Sometimes in the short-term this comes at a cost to it's citizens, sometimes it benefits them. I just think it's really hard to make arguments about China turning over a new leaf. It's not a judgement, just an observation taking into account thousands of years of survivorship. 

[nsx5200]

7 hours ago, Castanza said:

The entire history of China pretty much boils down to them prioritizing the survival of they system. Sometimes in the short-term this comes at a cost to it's citizens, sometimes it benefits them. I just think it's really hard to make arguments about China turning over a new leaf. It's not a judgement, just an observation taking into account thousands of years of survivorship. 

You lost me.  What lead you to believe that somebody's arguing that China's turning over a new leaf?  If I was not explicit enough regarding my comment, then it's my fault.  I was pointing out that even in a heavily top-down system, there are feedback pathways, one of which is the collective power of the personal purse mentioned in the article.   A weak pathway, but nevertheless one that can grow to be more influential .

 

Your observation regarding China is applicable to all history.  East and West.  Dark ages, Russian/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza... most people are just trying to survive.  We see it in the U.S. as well, with tons of people barely getting by, leading to the rise of the demagogues.

[Spekulatius]

XI Jinping doesn’t believe in frivolous consumption, He wants to make more stuff and to export it. Good ole mercantilistic ideology. Now the problem is that China is already the largest exporter so how far can this model go ? Most countries are pushing back with tariffs for Chinese goods, so this model is not going to work. 
 

If you want a more sinister explanation what’s  listen to this podcast from Grant with guest David Murrin. Scary if he is even half way right:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-grant-williams-podcast/id1508585135?i=1000674400029