China

[WFF]

1 hour ago, Kizion said:

 

It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? 

If it works as intended, it is the first of many 71B as prescribe in late September.  This is implementation, and help boost sentiment.  Stock crazed bug is in the air from people on the ground zero.

[UK]

1 hour ago, Kizion said:

 

It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? 

I think their goal is to send a message in the first place, rather than to acctualy buy large part of the market to backstop it. Sometimes strong words is enough, so far it is more than just words and if it is not enough, perhaps they can always opt for 'unlimited' version later:)

[WayWardCloud]

China is starting a massive military exercise around Taiwan called Joint Sword-2024B. 2024"A" was last May and lasted for two days. Could this be the start of an actual invasion? It's too soon to tell but if I put on my conspiracy hat a lot of elements are lined up.

 

- October and April are the best two months to attack because of the weather.

- Current US president is mentally impaired from old age.

- US weapons are spread thin around the world with Russia + Middle East fronts

- Weeks before a tight election where Americans are already at each others throat and ready to claim election interference. What if China has a plan to sow enough mistrust about the results that neither side recognizes the other's right to govern?

- They just propped up their stock market 25% on little more than announcements, it could have been to bait western money in while telling party friends at the top to unload their shares.

- Demography shows time is not anymore on the Chinese side.

- AI difference between the two is actually supposed to widen in the next few years according to Ex Google CEO Eric Schmidt giving the US an advantage, so better attack quickly now?

 

Hopefully I'm just scaring myself

Edited October 14, 2024 by WayWardCloud

[crs223]

3 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

China is starting a massive military exercise around Taiwan called Joint Sword-2024B. 2024"A" was last May and lasted for two days. Could this be the start of an actual invasion?

 

According to ChatGPT, these are common:

 

Here is a list of large-scale military exercises that have taken place in Asia over the past 20 years (from around 2004 to 2024). These exercises often involve thousands of troops, advanced military hardware, and international collaboration. The list covers major exercises involving countries across Asia, as well as joint exercises between Asian nations and extra-regional powers:

1. Vostok Series (Russia)

• Timeframe: 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022
• Participants: Russia, China, India, Mongolia, Belarus, and other countries (varies by year)
• Scale: Tens of thousands of troops
• Details: These are among the largest military exercises held in the Eastern Military District of Russia, which extends into Asia. The exercises focus on combined arms operations, live-fire drills, and international coordination.
• Notable Edition: Vostok 2018 involved around 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft, and 36,000 vehicles. It was the largest Russian military exercise since the Cold War.

2. Cobra Gold (Thailand)

• Timeframe: Annual (since the 1980s)
• Participants: Thailand, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and other invited countries
• Scale: Over 10,000 troops regularly, with larger numbers in certain years
• Details: Cobra Gold is the largest joint military exercise in Southeast Asia, co-hosted by Thailand and the U.S. It includes amphibious landings, live-fire drills, and humanitarian exercises.

3. Malabar (India)

• Timeframe: Annual (since 1992, larger scales in recent years)
• Participants: India, the U.S., Japan (since 2007), and Australia (since 2020)
• Scale: Large naval forces, carrier strike groups
• Details: A significant naval exercise originally between India and the U.S., it expanded to include Japan and Australia in response to growing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific. It focuses on anti-submarine warfare, carrier operations, and maritime security.

4. Joint Sea (China-Russia)

• Timeframe: 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023
• Participants: China and Russia
• Scale: Large naval and air forces
• Details: These joint naval exercises focus on enhancing interoperability between the Chinese and Russian navies, including anti-submarine operations, surface warfare, and air defense. Exercises have occurred in the East China Sea, the Sea of Japan, and the Baltic Sea.

5. Talisman Sabre (Australia)

• Timeframe: Biennial (since 2005)
• Participants: Australia, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and others
• Scale: Approximately 30,000 troops
• Details: Although held in Australia, Talisman Sabre involves many Asian nations. It focuses on amphibious landings, air combat, and large-scale multinational operations, serving as a showcase of interoperability between Asia-Pacific forces.

6. Shaheen Series (China-Pakistan)

• Timeframe: Annual (since 2011)
• Participants: China and Pakistan
• Scale: Large-scale air forces
• Details: Focused on air warfare, Shaheen exercises involve fighter jets, bombers, and support aircraft. It serves as a key element of defense cooperation between China and Pakistan, testing air combat skills and coordination.

7. Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC)

• Timeframe: Biennial (since 1971, with many Asian participants)
• Participants: U.S., Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Australia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and others
• Scale: The world's largest naval exercise, involving 25,000–30,000 personnel
• Details: Although centered in the Pacific, many Asian nations participate. RIMPAC includes large naval, air, and amphibious forces, focusing on disaster relief, maritime security, and combat training.

8. Foal Eagle (South Korea-U.S.)

• Timeframe: Annual (discontinued in 2019)
• Participants: South Korea, U.S.
• Scale: Up to 300,000 South Korean and 30,000 U.S. troops in some years
• Details: Foal Eagle was one of the largest combined field training exercises in the world, focusing on the defense of South Korea against potential aggression from North Korea. It involved ground, air, and naval forces in full-scale combat scenarios.

9. Key Resolve/Ulchi Freedom Guardian (South Korea-U.S.)

• Timeframe: Annual (until 2019)
• Participants: South Korea, U.S.
• Scale: Similar in size to Foal Eagle
• Details: These command post exercises (CPX) simulated war scenarios in the event of conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Ulchi Freedom Guardian often involved cyber warfare components and leadership simulations.

10. Zapad (Russia-Belarus)

• Timeframe: Biennial (latest in 2021)
• Participants: Russia, Belarus, and observers from China, India, Pakistan, Mongolia
• Scale: Approximately 200,000 troops (2021)
• Details: While primarily focused on Europe, Zapad 2021 had Asian components and observers, reflecting growing Russia-China military cooperation and the involvement of Central Asian partners.

11. Garuda Shield (Indonesia)

• Timeframe: Annual (since 2007)
• Participants: Indonesia, the U.S., Australia, Japan, and other ASEAN nations
• Scale: Over 5,000 troops
• Details: This exercise has grown significantly in scope, focusing on jungle warfare, humanitarian assistance, disaster response, and combined arms operations. It's one of the most important Southeast Asian military drills.

12. Peace Mission (SCO Anti-Terror Exercise)

• Timeframe: Biennial (since 2007)
• Participants: Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan)
• Scale: Over 10,000 troops
• Details: Focused on counter-terrorism and military cooperation, Peace Mission involves joint maneuvers, tactical operations, and counter-insurgency exercises, reflecting security concerns in Central Asia.

13. Yudh Abhyas (India-U.S.)

• Timeframe: Annual (since 2004)
• Participants: India and the U.S.
• Scale: Approximately 5,000 troops
• Details: A bilateral exercise that focuses on counter-insurgency and anti-terrorism operations, humanitarian relief, and peacekeeping missions. It involves infantry, air, and mechanized forces.

14. Shanti Path (India-Nepal)

• Timeframe: Annual
• Participants: India and Nepal
• Scale: Hundreds to a few thousand troops
• Details: This is one of several bilateral exercises between India and its neighbors, focusing on peacekeeping operations and disaster response.

[WayWardCloud]

Joint Sword-2024B is already over

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-15/china-moves-to-tax-the-ultra-rich-for-overseas-investment-gains

 

China Moves to Tax the Ultra-Rich for Overseas Investment Gains

The move underscores growing urgency within the government to expand its sources of revenue.

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-10-14/bmw-mercedes-and-volkswagen-bmw-mbg-vow-evs-struggle-to-compete-in-china

 

VW, BMW and Mercedes Are Getting Left in the Dust by China’s EVs

After falling behind on tech trends, German carmakers are scrambling to recover in their biggest and most lucrative market.

[james22]

 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

I was looking for a Tyson Foods thread and didn't find one. But thought I'd place it here. I'll play @Luke's advocate.

 

https://www.5newsonline.com/article/news/local/department-labor-child-labor-tyson/527-21c0bd01-6313-45a7-843a-f5f00582b841

 

Why does the western media that harps about sweatshops in China, conveniently forget to cover this news.

[Luke]

https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/notes-chinafile/its-too-convenient-say-xi-jinping-second-mao

 

“It’s Too Convenient to Say That Xi Jinping Is a Second Mao”

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-16/china-s-wild-stock-market-swings-hurt-a-21-trillion-bull-case

 

“Close securities account”

 

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/apple-s-tim-cook-visits-china-talks-data-security-with-minister

 

Apple’s Tim Cook Visits China, Talks Data Security With Minister

 

Apple Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook discussed investments, data security and cloud services with a senior Chinese official during his second trip to the nation this year.

 

“Apple will continue to grow its investments in China and help the high-quality development of the supply chain,” Cook was quoted as saying in the WeChat post

 

 

[james22]

What is increasingly clear, though, is that the Beijing of today will seemingly not much longer tolerate even the mild, limited capitalism that produced today’s economy. It was never really sustainable in their political context. Capitalism requires failure, change, “creative destruction.” Leaders have to take their hands off the wheel and let bad things happen.

 

We have problems doing that even in the US. We keep bailing out failed banks, for example. What we should do is safeguard only the depositors while letting shareholders and unsecured creditors bear the losses. But that means people who made bad choices have to suffer. Even auto and steel companies.

 

Xi Jinping has no problem letting people suffer, but he won’t let market forces decide who it will be. What if the market decides China needs new leaders? That’s unacceptable. The government will always have at least a thumb on the scale… and maybe a foot.

 

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/broken-china

[nsx5200]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-wont-give-failing-economic-model

"Rather, his[Xi's] top-down approach to governance privileges ideological unity over populist concessions and favors state-led investment over individual fiscal support."

"Although ordinary Chinese citizens may have limited agency, collectively they can exert economic pressure on Beijing. By tightening their wallets and prioritizing savings, they effectively express a quiet but potent vote of no confidence in the country’s direction."

 

The power of the people is stronger than it seems in that top-down system.

[Castanza]

30 minutes ago, nsx5200 said:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-wont-give-failing-economic-model

"Rather, his[Xi's] top-down approach to governance privileges ideological unity over populist concessions and favors state-led investment over individual fiscal support."

"Although ordinary Chinese citizens may have limited agency, collectively they can exert economic pressure on Beijing. By tightening their wallets and prioritizing savings, they effectively express a quiet but potent vote of no confidence in the country’s direction."

 

The power of the people is stronger than it seems in that top-down system.

 

Mhmm and who controls the currency? Didn't China experiment with a currency that expires the other year? 

[nsx5200]

37 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Mhmm and who controls the currency? Didn't China experiment with a currency that expires the other year? 

Steering consumer spending through currency manipulation has its own set of systemic risks, which the Chinese government might not want to go down.

 

The Chinese digital currency that expires, was a promotional thing to jump start the adoption as well as running trials.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/15/a-2024-overview-of-the-e-cny-chinas-digital-yuan/

[Castanza]

The entire history of China pretty much boils down to them prioritizing the survival of they system. Sometimes in the short-term this comes at a cost to it's citizens, sometimes it benefits them. I just think it's really hard to make arguments about China turning over a new leaf. It's not a judgement, just an observation taking into account thousands of years of survivorship. 

[nsx5200]

7 hours ago, Castanza said:

The entire history of China pretty much boils down to them prioritizing the survival of they system. Sometimes in the short-term this comes at a cost to it's citizens, sometimes it benefits them. I just think it's really hard to make arguments about China turning over a new leaf. It's not a judgement, just an observation taking into account thousands of years of survivorship. 

You lost me.  What lead you to believe that somebody's arguing that China's turning over a new leaf?  If I was not explicit enough regarding my comment, then it's my fault.  I was pointing out that even in a heavily top-down system, there are feedback pathways, one of which is the collective power of the personal purse mentioned in the article.   A weak pathway, but nevertheless one that can grow to be more influential .

 

Your observation regarding China is applicable to all history.  East and West.  Dark ages, Russian/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza... most people are just trying to survive.  We see it in the U.S. as well, with tons of people barely getting by, leading to the rise of the demagogues.

[Spekulatius]

XI Jinping doesn’t believe in frivolous consumption, He wants to make more stuff and to export it. Good ole mercantilistic ideology. Now the problem is that China is already the largest exporter so how far can this model go ? Most countries are pushing back with tariffs for Chinese goods, so this model is not going to work. 
 

If you want a more sinister explanation what’s  listen to this podcast from Grant with guest David Murrin. Scary if he is even half way right:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-grant-williams-podcast/id1508585135?i=1000674400029

[formthirteen]

 

 

https://research.gavekal.com/article/prejudice-and-china/

[nsx5200]

57 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

https://research.gavekal.com/article/prejudice-and-china/

Thanks for the article.  Here's the NotebookLM summary of it:

Quote

Briefing Doc: China's Industrial Rise and Western Blind Spots
Main Themes:

China's rapid industrial advancement: The document argues that China has significantly progressed across various industries, surpassing Western counterparts in efficiency, productivity, and cost-effectiveness.
Western underestimation of China's capabilities: The author posits several reasons for this blind spot, including COVID-related travel restrictions, preoccupation with internal issues (DEI, ESG), historical prejudice, and media bias.
Potential for China's continued growth: The author believes that despite challenges like the real estate bust and potential trade conflicts, China has strong potential for continued growth, particularly if domestic confidence is revitalized.
Most Important Ideas/Facts:

Chinese industrial dominance:
"The idea that China is suddenly setting the standards that others must now strive to meet is a sea-change compared with the world we lived in just five years ago."
China installs almost twice the number of industrial robots as the rest of the world combined.
China is the global leader in the nuclear industry.
China graduates more engineers each year than the entire OECD.
Western Blind Spots:
COVID and Ukraine: "The simplest, most obvious, and likeliest explanation why most CEOs and investors missed how China leapfrogged the West in industry after industry over the last five years: during that time, no one from the West bothered to visit China."
Prejudice: "To any self-respecting Western capitalist, the word 'communist' implies inefficiencies, poor products, and technological backwardness."
Media bias: "The simplest explanation is that the media is in the “bad news” game." and "In an equity-market-obsessed culture, the performance of the stock market index is quickly equated with the performance of the economy at large."
China's future prospects:
"The Chinese economy today is a coiled spring." Productivity gains are currently manifesting as trade surpluses and capital flight, potentially due to low domestic confidence in the government.
Stimulus and confidence: The success of recent stimulus measures in revitalizing domestic confidence is crucial for future growth.
US-China relations: Improved relations and potential easing of trade tensions could significantly boost China's economic prospects.
Quotes:

On Chinese competitiveness: "Today, we are seeing the results. [Chinese companies are] producing better products for less money—which is what capitalism should be about."
On media influence: "So yes, at a time of record debt and swelling budget deficits, the US government proposes to spend US$325mn a year paying “independent” media (the irony!) to push stories about the negative impact that China may be having around the world."
On the future of Chinese growth: "If [Chinese investors] do, the unfolding bull markets in Chinese equities and the renminbi could really have legs."
Investment Conclusions:

The document suggests a shift in the narrative surrounding China's investment potential. While many have deemed it "uninvestable", the author argues for a reassessment, emphasizing China's growing importance and potential for strong returns. The success of stimulus measures, domestic confidence, and US-China relations are key factors to watch.

The article hits many of the points that Luke's been saying.

 

The biggest criticism that I have with that article is that it's looking at mainly the Chinese advancements that was built on the past period where China was more free market based and ignore the systemic change with Xi, which changes the trend.  We do see some rollback of those changes, such as the tact that the Chinese government took recently to try to resolve the Chinese Indian border dispute (https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/22/asia/india-china-border-agreement-intl-hnk/index.html).

 

Like what the article quote from Munger: "show me the incentives, and I will tell you the outcome.”

 

If the Chinese people feel like they can not benefit from the labor of their hard work, they will simply be less productive, which we see from hard economic numbers, and not from simple news reporting or blog postings.  At the end of the day, the hard numbers speaks a lot more than word in articles...

[Spekulatius]

We can’t even believe the numbers coming from the Beijing as economic data for sure is massaged to meet the CVp’s goalposts,

I am in the China is important  but uninvestible (for the most part) camp.

[formthirteen]

14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I am in the China is important  but uninvestible (for the most part) camp.

 

You can invest in China, but you can't profit from China's success.

 

 

https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-china-is-like-the-19th-century

 

Quote

China, similarly, has not necessarily been a leader in scientific progress, even as it has become an economic juggernaut. China has won just one Nobel Prize in science, and doesn’t seem to have done much better with other scientific prizes. China has just two Breakthrough Prizes (compared to several dozen for the U.S.), no Turing Awards, no Fields Medals, no Kavli Prizes, no Abel Prizes, and no Draper Prizes.2 As late as 2016, Xi Jinping stated that China’s science and technology foundation “remains weak.” Chinese students and scholars often study abroad at foreign institutions for their training, not unlike how U.S. scientists would often study in Germany 100 years ago.

 

Quote

One 1925 novel on immigrant life described how acquiring newly available goods inevitably resulted in a desire for more of them. An immigrant family replaces their rags with real towels, then gets dishes and tableware “so we could all sit down at the table at the same time and eat like people," and continues to want more and more:

“We no sooner got used to regular towels than we began to want toothbrushes… We got the toothbrushes and we began wanting tooth powder to brush our teeth with, instead of ashes. And the more and more we wanted more things, and really needed more things, the more we got them.” 

 

 

 

https://scholars-stage.org/everything-is-worse-in-china/

 

Quote

 

Are you sickened by crass materialism? Wealth chased, gained, and wasted for nothing more than vain display? Are you oppressed by the sight of children denied the joys of childhood, guided from one carefully structured resume-builder to the next by parents eternally hovering over their shoulders? Do you dread a hulking, bureaucratized leviathan, unaccountable to the people it serves, and so captured by special interests that even political leaders cannot control it? Are you worried by a despotic national government that plays king-maker in the economic sphere and crushes all opposition to its social programs into the dust? Do you fear a culture actively hostile to the free exercise of religion? Hostility that not only permeates through every layer of society, but is backed by the awesome power of the state?

 

These too are all worse in China.

 

 

[Luke]

22 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

Like what the article quote from Munger: "show me the incentives, and I will tell you the outcome.”

In diplomacy broadly, Xi himself is also leading from the front. He is the most traveled PRC leader ever, and he has welcomed the most foreign visitors to Beijing, at a greater frequency than any predecessor. He has invested more money in diplomatic outreach. The foreign affairs budget has increased; there are more Chinese embassies and consulates around the world than before. It flows from Xi’s core political agenda.

 

Xi probably wants to be remembered as someone who restored China to its rightful place in the world, whatever that might mean in terms of concrete achievements. The general vibe—and he has already delivered on this part—is a China that gets global attention, a China that is recognized by governments around the world as an important political and economic power, and that is dealt with as such. You could even spin the perceived negatives of “wolf warrior” diplomacy as positives, because if the West is taking China seriously, then you know China is strong, because China is seen as a threat.

 

There is a saying that Mao Zedong achieved jianguo [建国, founding the new Chinese republic], Deng Xiaoping fuguo [富国, enriching China], and Xi has presided over qiangguo [强国, strengthening China]. If we say Xi’s objectives are for China to be economically powerful, militarily powerful, internationally respected, you can argue he’s done much of these three elements, especially the last two.

 

From the article I linked one page ago. 

 

China's current trajectory, in my opinion, is a lot better than Europe or the US, from an economic perspective, an inner political perspective, from a foreign political perspective...just extrapolate the technological development the last 15 years another 15 years into the future, they are growing significantly more than G7 and they actually have competitive manufacturing which is non-existent elsewhere which is why nobody can survive without tariffs anymore. They also, as can be seen via BRICS, have a large part of the global south supportive of them. Where are all the important resources? Not in Europe...a little bit in the US...a lot in SA and Africa...who is heaving the strongest diplomatic outreach and investments over there...? Contrary to all the permanent FUD in western media, the bull train China chuggs along steadily...very very long. 

 

Edited November 2, 2024 by Luke

[Luke]

Now you can come up with the same soap opera of "can we trust their numbers" "can we trust the VIE" "wont Xi just steal the money of the companies" "but they have communism right?"...

 

Just have a walk through whats possible in that country: