crs223 Posted October 9 Posted October 9 Can’t a country just digitally cancel your passport? Why does it have to be physically collected?
backtothebeach Posted October 9 Posted October 9 45 minutes ago, crs223 said: Can’t a country just digitally cancel your passport? Why does it have to be physically collected? Plausibile deniability. "Oh no, there are no travel bans in China. We have rule of law!"
UK Posted October 10 Posted October 10 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-10/pboc-launches-71-billion-liquidity-tool-for-stock-investors
Kizion Posted October 10 Posted October 10 (edited) 3 hours ago, UK said: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-10/pboc-launches-71-billion-liquidity-tool-for-stock-investors It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? Edited October 10 by Kizion
WFF Posted October 10 Posted October 10 1 hour ago, Kizion said: It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? If it works as intended, it is the first of many 71B as prescribe in late September. This is implementation, and help boost sentiment. Stock crazed bug is in the air from people on the ground zero.
UK Posted October 10 Posted October 10 1 hour ago, Kizion said: It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? I think their goal is to send a message in the first place, rather than to acctualy buy large part of the market to backstop it. Sometimes strong words is enough, so far it is more than just words and if it is not enough, perhaps they can always opt for 'unlimited' version later:)
WayWardCloud Posted October 14 Posted October 14 (edited) China is starting a massive military exercise around Taiwan called Joint Sword-2024B. 2024"A" was last May and lasted for two days. Could this be the start of an actual invasion? It's too soon to tell but if I put on my conspiracy hat a lot of elements are lined up. - October and April are the best two months to attack because of the weather. - Current US president is mentally impaired from old age. - US weapons are spread thin around the world with Russia + Middle East fronts - Weeks before a tight election where Americans are already at each others throat and ready to claim election interference. What if China has a plan to sow enough mistrust about the results that neither side recognizes the other's right to govern? - They just propped up their stock market 25% on little more than announcements, it could have been to bait western money in while telling party friends at the top to unload their shares. - Demography shows time is not anymore on the Chinese side. - AI difference between the two is actually supposed to widen in the next few years according to Ex Google CEO Eric Schmidt giving the US an advantage, so better attack quickly now? Hopefully I'm just scaring myself Edited October 14 by WayWardCloud
crs223 Posted October 14 Posted October 14 3 hours ago, WayWardCloud said: China is starting a massive military exercise around Taiwan called Joint Sword-2024B. 2024"A" was last May and lasted for two days. Could this be the start of an actual invasion? According to ChatGPT, these are common: Here is a list of large-scale military exercises that have taken place in Asia over the past 20 years (from around 2004 to 2024). These exercises often involve thousands of troops, advanced military hardware, and international collaboration. The list covers major exercises involving countries across Asia, as well as joint exercises between Asian nations and extra-regional powers: 1. Vostok Series (Russia) Timeframe: 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 Participants: Russia, China, India, Mongolia, Belarus, and other countries (varies by year) Scale: Tens of thousands of troops Details: These are among the largest military exercises held in the Eastern Military District of Russia, which extends into Asia. The exercises focus on combined arms operations, live-fire drills, and international coordination. Notable Edition: Vostok 2018 involved around 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft, and 36,000 vehicles. It was the largest Russian military exercise since the Cold War. 2. Cobra Gold (Thailand) Timeframe: Annual (since the 1980s) Participants: Thailand, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and other invited countries Scale: Over 10,000 troops regularly, with larger numbers in certain years Details: Cobra Gold is the largest joint military exercise in Southeast Asia, co-hosted by Thailand and the U.S. It includes amphibious landings, live-fire drills, and humanitarian exercises. 3. Malabar (India) Timeframe: Annual (since 1992, larger scales in recent years) Participants: India, the U.S., Japan (since 2007), and Australia (since 2020) Scale: Large naval forces, carrier strike groups Details: A significant naval exercise originally between India and the U.S., it expanded to include Japan and Australia in response to growing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific. It focuses on anti-submarine warfare, carrier operations, and maritime security. 4. Joint Sea (China-Russia) Timeframe: 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023 Participants: China and Russia Scale: Large naval and air forces Details: These joint naval exercises focus on enhancing interoperability between the Chinese and Russian navies, including anti-submarine operations, surface warfare, and air defense. Exercises have occurred in the East China Sea, the Sea of Japan, and the Baltic Sea. 5. Talisman Sabre (Australia) Timeframe: Biennial (since 2005) Participants: Australia, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and others Scale: Approximately 30,000 troops Details: Although held in Australia, Talisman Sabre involves many Asian nations. It focuses on amphibious landings, air combat, and large-scale multinational operations, serving as a showcase of interoperability between Asia-Pacific forces. 6. Shaheen Series (China-Pakistan) Timeframe: Annual (since 2011) Participants: China and Pakistan Scale: Large-scale air forces Details: Focused on air warfare, Shaheen exercises involve fighter jets, bombers, and support aircraft. It serves as a key element of defense cooperation between China and Pakistan, testing air combat skills and coordination. 7. Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) Timeframe: Biennial (since 1971, with many Asian participants) Participants: U.S., Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Australia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and others Scale: The world's largest naval exercise, involving 25,000–30,000 personnel Details: Although centered in the Pacific, many Asian nations participate. RIMPAC includes large naval, air, and amphibious forces, focusing on disaster relief, maritime security, and combat training. 8. Foal Eagle (South Korea-U.S.) Timeframe: Annual (discontinued in 2019) Participants: South Korea, U.S. Scale: Up to 300,000 South Korean and 30,000 U.S. troops in some years Details: Foal Eagle was one of the largest combined field training exercises in the world, focusing on the defense of South Korea against potential aggression from North Korea. It involved ground, air, and naval forces in full-scale combat scenarios. 9. Key Resolve/Ulchi Freedom Guardian (South Korea-U.S.) Timeframe: Annual (until 2019) Participants: South Korea, U.S. Scale: Similar in size to Foal Eagle Details: These command post exercises (CPX) simulated war scenarios in the event of conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Ulchi Freedom Guardian often involved cyber warfare components and leadership simulations. 10. Zapad (Russia-Belarus) Timeframe: Biennial (latest in 2021) Participants: Russia, Belarus, and observers from China, India, Pakistan, Mongolia Scale: Approximately 200,000 troops (2021) Details: While primarily focused on Europe, Zapad 2021 had Asian components and observers, reflecting growing Russia-China military cooperation and the involvement of Central Asian partners. 11. Garuda Shield (Indonesia) Timeframe: Annual (since 2007) Participants: Indonesia, the U.S., Australia, Japan, and other ASEAN nations Scale: Over 5,000 troops Details: This exercise has grown significantly in scope, focusing on jungle warfare, humanitarian assistance, disaster response, and combined arms operations. It's one of the most important Southeast Asian military drills. 12. Peace Mission (SCO Anti-Terror Exercise) Timeframe: Biennial (since 2007) Participants: Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) Scale: Over 10,000 troops Details: Focused on counter-terrorism and military cooperation, Peace Mission involves joint maneuvers, tactical operations, and counter-insurgency exercises, reflecting security concerns in Central Asia. 13. Yudh Abhyas (India-U.S.) Timeframe: Annual (since 2004) Participants: India and the U.S. Scale: Approximately 5,000 troops Details: A bilateral exercise that focuses on counter-insurgency and anti-terrorism operations, humanitarian relief, and peacekeeping missions. It involves infantry, air, and mechanized forces. 14. Shanti Path (India-Nepal) Timeframe: Annual Participants: India and Nepal Scale: Hundreds to a few thousand troops Details: This is one of several bilateral exercises between India and its neighbors, focusing on peacekeeping operations and disaster response.
Hektor Posted October 15 Posted October 15 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-15/china-moves-to-tax-the-ultra-rich-for-overseas-investment-gains China Moves to Tax the Ultra-Rich for Overseas Investment Gains The move underscores growing urgency within the government to expand its sources of revenue.
Hektor Posted October 15 Posted October 15 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-10-14/bmw-mercedes-and-volkswagen-bmw-mbg-vow-evs-struggle-to-compete-in-china VW, BMW and Mercedes Are Getting Left in the Dust by China’s EVs After falling behind on tech trends, German carmakers are scrambling to recover in their biggest and most lucrative market.
whatstheofficerproblem Posted October 16 Posted October 16 I was looking for a Tyson Foods thread and didn't find one. But thought I'd place it here. I'll play @Luke's advocate. https://www.5newsonline.com/article/news/local/department-labor-child-labor-tyson/527-21c0bd01-6313-45a7-843a-f5f00582b841 Why does the western media that harps about sweatshops in China, conveniently forget to cover this news.
Luke Posted October 16 Posted October 16 https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/notes-chinafile/its-too-convenient-say-xi-jinping-second-mao “It’s Too Convenient to Say That Xi Jinping Is a Second Mao”
UK Posted October 16 Posted October 16 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-16/china-s-wild-stock-market-swings-hurt-a-21-trillion-bull-case “Close securities account”
Hektor Posted October 23 Posted October 23 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/apple-s-tim-cook-visits-china-talks-data-security-with-minister Apple’s Tim Cook Visits China, Talks Data Security With Minister Apple Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook discussed investments, data security and cloud services with a senior Chinese official during his second trip to the nation this year. “Apple will continue to grow its investments in China and help the high-quality development of the supply chain,” Cook was quoted as saying in the WeChat post
james22 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 What is increasingly clear, though, is that the Beijing of today will seemingly not much longer tolerate even the mild, limited capitalism that produced today’s economy. It was never really sustainable in their political context. Capitalism requires failure, change, “creative destruction.” Leaders have to take their hands off the wheel and let bad things happen. We have problems doing that even in the US. We keep bailing out failed banks, for example. What we should do is safeguard only the depositors while letting shareholders and unsecured creditors bear the losses. But that means people who made bad choices have to suffer. Even auto and steel companies. Xi Jinping has no problem letting people suffer, but he won’t let market forces decide who it will be. What if the market decides China needs new leaders? That’s unacceptable. The government will always have at least a thumb on the scale… and maybe a foot. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/broken-china
nsx5200 Posted October 31 Posted October 31 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-wont-give-failing-economic-model "Rather, his[Xi's] top-down approach to governance privileges ideological unity over populist concessions and favors state-led investment over individual fiscal support." "Although ordinary Chinese citizens may have limited agency, collectively they can exert economic pressure on Beijing. By tightening their wallets and prioritizing savings, they effectively express a quiet but potent vote of no confidence in the country’s direction." The power of the people is stronger than it seems in that top-down system.
Castanza Posted October 31 Posted October 31 30 minutes ago, nsx5200 said: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-wont-give-failing-economic-model "Rather, his[Xi's] top-down approach to governance privileges ideological unity over populist concessions and favors state-led investment over individual fiscal support." "Although ordinary Chinese citizens may have limited agency, collectively they can exert economic pressure on Beijing. By tightening their wallets and prioritizing savings, they effectively express a quiet but potent vote of no confidence in the country’s direction." The power of the people is stronger than it seems in that top-down system. Mhmm and who controls the currency? Didn't China experiment with a currency that expires the other year?
nsx5200 Posted October 31 Posted October 31 37 minutes ago, Castanza said: Mhmm and who controls the currency? Didn't China experiment with a currency that expires the other year? Steering consumer spending through currency manipulation has its own set of systemic risks, which the Chinese government might not want to go down. The Chinese digital currency that expires, was a promotional thing to jump start the adoption as well as running trials. https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/15/a-2024-overview-of-the-e-cny-chinas-digital-yuan/
Castanza Posted October 31 Posted October 31 The entire history of China pretty much boils down to them prioritizing the survival of they system. Sometimes in the short-term this comes at a cost to it's citizens, sometimes it benefits them. I just think it's really hard to make arguments about China turning over a new leaf. It's not a judgement, just an observation taking into account thousands of years of survivorship.
nsx5200 Posted October 31 Posted October 31 7 hours ago, Castanza said: The entire history of China pretty much boils down to them prioritizing the survival of they system. Sometimes in the short-term this comes at a cost to it's citizens, sometimes it benefits them. I just think it's really hard to make arguments about China turning over a new leaf. It's not a judgement, just an observation taking into account thousands of years of survivorship. You lost me. What lead you to believe that somebody's arguing that China's turning over a new leaf? If I was not explicit enough regarding my comment, then it's my fault. I was pointing out that even in a heavily top-down system, there are feedback pathways, one of which is the collective power of the personal purse mentioned in the article. A weak pathway, but nevertheless one that can grow to be more influential . Your observation regarding China is applicable to all history. East and West. Dark ages, Russian/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza... most people are just trying to survive. We see it in the U.S. as well, with tons of people barely getting by, leading to the rise of the demagogues.
Spekulatius Posted November 1 Posted November 1 XI Jinping doesn’t believe in frivolous consumption, He wants to make more stuff and to export it. Good ole mercantilistic ideology. Now the problem is that China is already the largest exporter so how far can this model go ? Most countries are pushing back with tariffs for Chinese goods, so this model is not going to work. If you want a more sinister explanation what’s listen to this podcast from Grant with guest David Murrin. Scary if he is even half way right: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-grant-williams-podcast/id1508585135?i=1000674400029
formthirteen Posted November 1 Posted November 1 https://research.gavekal.com/article/prejudice-and-china/
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