China

[CGJB]

20 hours ago, Parsad said:

War, U.S. issues, Taiwan invasion...these seem like remote problems...unless Trump wins.  

 

Respectfully disagree that war with China would be more likely if Trump wins. Trump would be very aggressive toward China with things like trade restrictions and tariffs, but he has never shown any inclination to getting into a kinetic war with them.

[Parsad]

6 minutes ago, CGJB said:

 

Respectfully disagree that war with China would be more likely if Trump wins. Trump would be very aggressive toward China with things like trade restrictions and tariffs, but he has never shown any inclination to getting into a kinetic war with them.

 

That's exactly why China would probably be more inclined to go after Taiwan, as they know that Trump would do nothing to protect Taiwan.  Cheers!

[CGJB]

36 minutes ago, Castanza said:

My Sberbank investment in Russia is actually mostly impossible to access because of the US not Russia. My 5k investment that’s worth 45k is just stuck….in limbo until the US decides to allow ADRs again if ever. 

 

I'm so glad to see you posted this. I have some Russian ADRs myself. The action the US took on this doesn't "stick it to Putin" or whatever, it just screws over American citizens. What a mess.

Edited January 24 by CGJB

[CGJB]

29 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

That's exactly why China would probably be more inclined to go after Taiwan, as they know that Trump would do nothing to protect Taiwan.  Cheers!

 

It's not easy at all for China to go after Taiwan militarily. But Biden has been playing footsie with the third rail (Taiwan sovereignty), and that's a casus belli for China. Nothing else is. Keep the status quo in Taiwan, and China will take no risks. Taiwan is not defensible with America's current navy. We can't shoot down hypersonic missiles, for example.

Edited January 24 by CGJB

[Parsad]

41 minutes ago, CGJB said:

 

It's not easy at all for China to go after Taiwan militarily. But Biden has been playing footsie with the third rail (Taiwan sovereignty), and that's a casus belli for China. Nothing else is. Keep the status quo in Taiwan, and China will take no risks. Taiwan is not defensible with America's current navy. We can't shoot down hypersonic missiles, for example.

 

I agree!  Will Trump keep the status quo?  Other than the Middle East and North Korea, he essentially indicated that the U.S. reach will decrease during his previous term. 

 

If Trump wins, I suspect we will see considerable pullback of U.S. interests abroad, which subsequently will have an effect on the behavior of other nation states...China included.  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

Yea amazing how people forget that it was the US government that stole everyone’s Russian assets. 

[Gmthebeau]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

My Sberbank investment in Russia is actually mostly impossible to access because of the US not Russia. My 5k investment that’s worth 45k is just stuck….in limbo until the US decides to allow ADRs again if ever. 

Russia invaded another country.  There are consequences to that, same as if China does.  ASML was asked to not sell certain equipment to China.  Imagine if they don’t comply.  There would be consequences from the US government.  It is simply better to stick to home cooking otherwise you are taking on political and other unforeseen risks.

[Castanza]

41 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

Russia invaded another country.  There are consequences to that, same as if China does.  ASML was asked to not sell certain equipment to China.  Imagine if they don’t comply.  There would be consequences from the US government.  It is simply better to stick to home cooking otherwise you are taking on political and other unforeseen risks.

China and Mexico are flooding our country with Fentanyl which has killed close to 500k US citizens in the last 6 years.…are their equities banned? China took over Hong Kong just a few years ago…they also leaked a virus that killed millions globally and caused untold amounts of financial damage. 
 

There is zero consistency to this nonsense. “Morality” and investing don’t go hand in hand. 

Edited January 24 by Castanza

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Castanza said:

China and Mexico are flooding our country with Fentanyl which has killed close to 500k US citizens in the last 6 years.…are their equities banned? China took over Hong Kong just a few years ago…they also leaked a virus that killed millions globally and caused untold amounts of financial damage. 
 

There is zero consistency to this nonsense. “Morality” and investing don’t go hand in hand. 

 

Big difference between drugs flooding other countries and a dictator invading another sovereign nation.  Yes, deaths are deaths, but I would imagine more people die every year from poor air quality...who are you going to blame for that and stopping it is as difficult as stopping the drug trade?

 

Also, it was a handover by the British government, not China invading Hong Kong.  

 

Cheers!

[Gmthebeau]

6 hours ago, Castanza said:

China and Mexico are flooding our country with Fentanyl which has killed close to 500k US citizens in the last 6 years.…are their equities banned? China took over Hong Kong just a few years ago…they also leaked a virus that killed millions globally and caused untold amounts of financial damage. 
 

There is zero consistency to this nonsense. “Morality” and investing don’t go hand in hand. 

 

Drugs have been flooding this country far longer than 6 years.  I remember the first drug czar decades ago.  The only thing that changes is the drugs and countries involved.  Americans need to learn to stop using drugs.   If there wasn't a demand the supply would not matter.   

 

I feel like investing in any foreign country that is KNOWN enemy of the United States, such as Russia, China, etc will likely end up with a bad outcome on a long enough timeline.  

[Luca]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3249635/german-firms-plan-increase-china-investment-next-2-years-despite-reality-check-2023?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

 

German firms plan to increase China investment in next 2 years despite ‘reality check’ in 2023

[Luca]

“The economy is the body, and finance is the blood. The two coexist and prosper together,” its commentary said on Wednesday.

Earlier this week, Beijing made moves to improve market sentiment, with Premier Li Qiang pledging increased support for capital markets at a State Council meeting on Monday.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said on Tuesday that it would introduce more long-term institutional investors and avoid releasing policies that could dampen market expectations.

 

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3249606/china-cut-banks-reserve-requirement-ratio-set-inject-1-trillion-yuan-market?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

[Castanza]

3 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:

 

Drugs have been flooding this country far longer than 6 years.  I remember the first drug czar decades ago.  The only thing that changes is the drugs and countries involved.  Americans need to learn to stop using drugs.   If there wasn't a demand the supply would not matter.   

 

I feel like investing in any foreign country that is KNOWN enemy of the United States, such as Russia, China, etc will likely end up with a bad outcome on a long enough timeline.  

 

So which is it? The here and now that matters for which equities are banned and blocked? Or further back in history? Because Russia owned Ukraine a dozen times over the last 800 years. I also seem to remember Russia being a vital ally to the US during WWII....again...inconsistency regarding actions in both the historical and present perspectives. 

[ICUMD]

Seems like a lot of the Mexican drug trade entering the US is a result of the smuggling of American firearms into Mexico, arming the drug cartels.

 

Apparently there is only one legal gun shop in all of Mexico, under military control.

 

Now that's irony!

 

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10/19/how-a-booming-gun-business-in-the-u-s-arms-mexicos-cartels/

 

[Gmthebeau]

12 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

So which is it? The here and now that matters for which equities are banned and blocked? Or further back in history? Because Russia owned Ukraine a dozen times over the last 800 years. I also seem to remember Russia being a vital ally to the US during WWII....again...inconsistency regarding actions in both the historical and present perspectives. 

 

Russia has not been a US ally or friend for decades so unless you bought during WWII I fail to see your point.

[Gmthebeau]

I fail to see why anyone would buy Chinese equities.  There have been talks to blocking them in the past.  China is clearly not a US friend.  The US Government Thrift Savings Plan (401k for government employees) have changed their international tracking index to remove Chinese equities.  The writing is on the wall, if you fail to listen you have nobody to blame but yourself when it goes bad.

[Castanza]

16 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Seems like a lot of the Mexican drug trade entering the US is a result of the smuggling of American firearms into Mexico, arming the drug cartels.

 

Apparently there is only one legal gun shop in all of Mexico, under military control.

 

Now that's irony!

 

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10/19/how-a-booming-gun-business-in-the-u-s-arms-mexicos-cartels/

 

 

Yes and gun crime went up with the ban for law abiding citizens ownership....irony

 

15 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

 

Russia has not been a US ally or friend for decades so unless you bought during WWII I fail to see your point.

 

1. You said Russia securities are banned because of the current invasion of Ukraine

2. I said ok, why are Chinese and MX securities not banned because of the current drug situation

3. You said the drug history goes back further in time then the quoted 6 years

4. And I said yeah and Russia Ukraine conflicts go back further as well so why are securities only banned now? 

5. You said securities of KNOWN enemies should be banned or excepted to be banned. 

 

So why the inconsistency is my point...and why the double standards on which equities to ban. That is my point. Russia and China have both invaded countries in the last 5 years. Yet every talking head on the news and hedge fund manager is saying "We need to start investing in China." When China is doing far more directly against the US than Russia is. 

 

Blocking investments is just a stupid way to handle the situation. Either let people assume their own risk and invest where they want (free market) or don't and block all foreign adversarial exchanges. I knew the risk when investing in Russian ADRs...that's why it was a small beer money bet. But my initial point was pointing out the hypocrisy that it wasn't Russia who stole my shares....it was the US. 

 

6 hours ago, Parsad said:

Also, it was a handover by the British government, not China invading Hong Kong

 

That was decades ago and although linked, it was different than the conflict in 2018-2020....

 

China broke the agreement to maintain the segregation of govt and laws in Hong Kong post handover from the British. CCP worked their way into Hong Kong through legislative annexation. They imprisoned protesters and advocates of democracy since the mid 2000's and additional change in 2018-19 basically removed all freedom or independence of Hong Kong. Simply a different approach. 

 

Many many changes

- Freedom of press gone

- Bogus elections with CCP stooges put in office

- Extradition laws on the books and anti protest/democracy laws put in place to silence any dissident. 

 

Same thing China will likely do with Taiwan imo....China is damn good at invading through means of the nuanced legal process with no small degree of corruption. 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________

 

All this to be said: Investing in foreign countries comes with risk 100000%. But that risk is not consistent and often times the risk does not come from the foreign power. It comes from out own country. So to the initial post I responded to....Russia was not the problem with Russian ADR's....it was the US who screwed it's own citizen shareholders. Some consistency from OUR government would be nice. Either make it clear what we can and cannot invest in or don't interfere. Also the brokerages are to blame to an extent. Some of them took it upon themselves to block ADR's and I think that's very wrong. Right in line with banks choosing to lock up finances of businesses they don't support. That's not capitalism and free market. 

 

 

[Luca]

9 minutes ago, Castanza said:

But my initial point was pointing out the hypocrisy that it wasn't Russia who stole my shares....it was the US. 

Well said, nobody in Russia stole the shares, the US randomly banned selected Russian billionaires, stole some of their assets and blocked shareholders from having access to their rightly owned shares. Everybody blaming russia but they did nothing here haha

[John Hjorth]

1 minute ago, Luca said:

Well said, nobody in Russia stole the shares, the US randomly banned selected Russian billionaires, stole some of their assets and blocked shareholders from having access to their rightly owned shares. Everybody blaming russia but they did nothing here haha

 

This is actually true. It is one of many consequences of various sactions, not thought out well, designed and imposed properly, and according to purpose.

 

Well, now back to China.

[Castanza]

  +  = US Gov't/Policy

 

 +  = US Citizens

Edited January 24 by Castanza

[Gmthebeau]

The federal government is not your risk manager.  Wall Street will sell you anything they can make a buck on.  Buyer beware.

[Castanza]

10 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

The federal government is not your risk manager.  Wall Street will sell you anything they can make a buck on.  Buyer beware.

 

Then stop trying to managing my risk by blocking ADRs....Allow me to trade the ADR's I wish and if Russia decided to block my shares then that's my mistake and my risk. Same for China and any other country. Not sure how I can make this more clear for you lol 

Edited January 24 by Castanza

[Luca]

8 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

The federal government is not your risk manager.  Wall Street will sell you anything they can make a buck on.  Buyer beware.

Id expect from my government that they dont destroy my equity I own in other countries. Sanctions never helped, all it did drive Russia further away, permanent resource loss for Europe that desperately depended on them, right into the arms of china that used the opportunity perfectly. 

[Gmthebeau]

1 minute ago, Luca said:

Id expect from my government that they dont destroy my equity I own in other countries. Sanctions never helped, all it did drive Russia further away, permanent resource loss for Europe that desperately depended on them, right into the arms of china that used the opportunity perfectly. 

 

I have not tracked all the issues with this because I would have never invested in Russia to begin with, but I thought besides the US blocking these, the Russians passed a law saying ownership had to be by Russians?  Is that not correct?

[Castanza]

2 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

 

I have not tracked all the issues with this because I would have never invested in Russia to begin with, but I thought besides the US blocking these, the Russians passed a law saying ownership had to be by Russians?  Is that not correct?

 

That's not correct. OFAC is the main problem for US investors. Other countries have similar issues. 

 

More can be read about it on the Sberbank thread.