China

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

It is thought provoking because he completely ignore that there are 25 million people living on the island and most of these do not want to be ruled y CCP, I suppose.. 

Yes of course, the ideal case is Taiwan establishing independence via referendum and gets acknowledged worldwide. And then china accepts it too. Is that realistic though? Anyways folks, i am out of china stocks just now. No more energy with all this geopolitical non sense and war games, takes up way too much mental energy and china moves nowhere for years while the US outperforming on all fronts. I was the last bullish man standing but admit defeat and mistake.

[zippy1]

46 minutes ago, Luke said:

Yes of course, the ideal case is Taiwan establishing independence via referendum and gets acknowledged worldwide. And then china accepts it too. Is that realistic though? Anyways folks, i am out of china stocks just now. No more energy with all this geopolitical non sense and war games, takes up way too much mental energy and china moves nowhere for years while the US outperforming on all fronts. I was the last bullish man standing but admit defeat and mistake.

Some overseas Chinese seem to think that overthrowing CCP and break China into a few countries like the sizes of European countries is the way to go.  I am actually curious about whether that would be better for the Chinese.  

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Some overseas Chinese seem to think that overthrowing CCP and break China into a few countries like the sizes of European countries is the way to go.  I am actually curious about whether that would be better for the Chinese.  

Yep, thats the goal of the western/US politics. Best case is CCP falls due to so much economic and internal unrest, then some sort of democracy can be established and candidates be financed that integrate themselves into the US/EU order. Then only North Korea/Russia and the Islamic regimes have to fall+some trouble makers in SA and Africa.

[Luke]

I think for the US and Taiwan it makes the most sense to just acknowledge the republic of china as a legitimate independent country and risk war with China. Taiwan could run a referendum for which they can easily get a majority to be independent, maybe even rename to republic of taiwan. IF there is a war then the US could use that to end the chinese government once and for all, although with a price to be paid consisting of some dead soldiers on both sides, the world would afterwards have much better stability. Possibly EU troops could also fight there, maybe a combination on both the russian front as well as chinese front.

[Luke]

If those wars are won you would basically have 1.5b additional consumers that join western markets, with the right US president the SP 500 would explode afterwards.

[mcliu]

 

[zippy1]

1 hour ago, mcliu said:

 

Yes, this is similar to what Russia did in Ukraine. However, Taiwanese law, which was passed years ago,  actually does remove these people's Taiwanese citizenship. They can not have dual-citizenship.

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, zippy1 said:

Yes, this is similar to what Russia did in Ukraine. However, Taiwanese law, which was passed years ago,  actually does remove these people's Taiwanese citizenship. They can not have dual-citizenship.

Who would want Chinese citizenship anyways? it just means if you travel in China, you may get treated as a Chinese citizen which means no rights. You are also obligated by law to spy for the CCP. You got to be dumb as a rock to apply for Chinese citizenship.

You are much better off living as a foreigner in China.

[WFF]

46 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Who would want Chinese citizenship anyways? it just means if you travel in China, you may get treated as a Chinese citizen which means no rights. You are also obligated by law to spy for the CCP. You got to be dumb as a rock to apply for Chinese citizenship.

You are much better off living as a foreigner in China.

Don’t know about the laws, but better off as a foreigner is right (lower taxes and access/priority to better schools/etc) 

[james22]

On 1/6/2025 at 8:16 PM, Luke said:

Anyways folks, i am out of china stocks just now. No more energy with all this geopolitical non sense and war games, takes up way too much mental energy and china moves nowhere for years while the US outperforming on all fronts. I was the last bullish man standing but admit defeat and mistake.

 

It is never a defeat or mistake to course correct.

 

Only to refuse to.

[Hektor]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/business/china-central-bank-bonds.html

 

China’s Central Bank Stops Buying Bonds as Deflation Fears Grip Economy

 

In a striking sign of the Chinese economy’s stagnation, the central bank said on Friday that it had temporarily stopped buying government bonds. 

 

The central bank’s unexpected action is aimed at braking a recent shift by investors toward purchasing bonds while shunning riskier assets like stocks and real estate. That shift has driven China’s long-term interest rates to a record low.

 

The decision by the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, was notable because central banks facing weak growth usually buy bonds to pump money into an economy. This is what the Federal Reserve did during the global financial crisis 16 years ago and other recent financial upheavals.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

China looks more and more like Japan

in 1990. Real estate grinding lower, sclerotic SOE dominating the economy, same party running the country with top down control  (even less chance

of change than in Japan since there are

no real elections), lousy demographics and a failed  economic model based on exports.

 

Edited January 10 by Spekulatius

[zippy1]

There are rumors that even rich people like the Rong family moved to Canada. If something like this is happening, it should be good for EWBC.
https://www.westca.com/News/article/sid=1064977/今年開天辟地的大新聞_透露驚人信號/lang=tchinese.html
For an introduction to this family, there is an entry on wikipedia on Yiren Rong, the fomer Vice President of China, the "Red Captialist." 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rong_Yiren

Edited January 10 by zippy1

[nsx5200]

3 hours ago, Hektor said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/business/china-central-bank-bonds.html

 

China’s Central Bank Stops Buying Bonds as Deflation Fears Grip Economy

Seems like the Chinese government doesn't have an uniform policy philosophy.  They seems to operating using two competing philosophies: the western Keynesian one with modern economy theory, and the old Maoist, everything to feed the central entity.  The modern camp wants to use modern economic tools (lower rates, increase money supply, etc) and leverage the free-market to address the issue whereas the Maoist want to address the problem by making short-term but eventually ineffective actions like issuing edicts to stop buying bonds.  They advertise free market, but acts Maoist at the end.  No wonder their citizen and business rationally behave by continue to hoard cash in savings.  They don't believe their government will allow a free-market to operate, so why invest in it?

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-local-governments-settle-overdue-bills-with-apartments-not-cash-50a35053
 

China’s Local Governments Settle Overdue Bills With Apartments, Not Cash

 

 

In recent years, Chinese property developers have been so strapped for cash that they have used unsold apartments to settle debts to construction companies and furniture suppliers

.

Now, Chinese local governments are following suit. 
 

[Blake Hampton]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-local-governments-settle-overdue-bills-with-apartments-not-cash-50a35053
 

China’s Local Governments Settle Overdue Bills With Apartments, Not Cash

 

 

In recent years, Chinese property developers have been so strapped for cash that they have used unsold apartments to settle debts to construction companies and furniture suppliers

.

Now, Chinese local governments are following suit. 
 

China's new currency is unfinished apartments 

[Spekulatius]

51 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

China's new currency is unfinished apartments 

Just in fairness, I think apartments in China get sold unfinished typically.

[nsx5200]

On 1/12/2025 at 12:36 PM, Blake Hampton said:

China's new currency is unfinished apartments 

They just need to tokenize them, and at some point, de-couple the tokens from the apartments.  A new currency is born.

[Spekulatius]

https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-imposes-its-most-stringent-critical-minerals-export-restrictions-yet-amidst#:~:text=China banned shipments of gallium,be subject to greater scrutiny.
 

This is a bigger deal than people think and I ran into this at work. This not just restricts the elements Antimony and Germanium etc  but also materials that contain those. Infrared specialty materials are affected by this and can’t be purchased in China any more.

 

The only alternative source is a large German manufacturer who basically invented these materials in the first place.

 

Without this stuff many high end infrared systems that go into satellites , drones, fighter jets, rockets can’t be build any more. The US has no domestic source for many of these materials.

Edited Sunday at 06:23 PM by Spekulatius

[zippy1]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-imposes-its-most-stringent-critical-minerals-export-restrictions-yet-amidst#:~:text=China banned shipments of gallium,be subject to greater scrutiny.
 

This is a bigger deal than people think and I ran into this at work. This not just restricts the elements Antimony and Germanium etc  but also materials that contain those. Infrared specialty materials are affected by this and can’t be purchased in China any more.

 

The only alternative source is a large German manufacturer who basically invented these materials in the first place.

 

Without this stuff many high end infrared systems that go into satellites , drones, fighter jets, rockets can’t be build any more. The US has no domestic source for many of these materials.

Does this German manufacture has a name? 

Edited Sunday at 11:08 PM by zippy1

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, zippy1 said:

Does this German manufacture has a name? 

It is not a public company.

[zippy1]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It is not a public company.

Sadly, however, I would think this kind of things will continue to happen.   I would certainly pay attention to this kind of situation.
This kind of shift in the supply chain has created great investment  opportunities in Taiwan.  

Edited Monday at 04:58 AM by zippy1

[Spekulatius]

15 hours ago, zippy1 said:

Sadly, however, I would think this kind of things will continue to happen.   I would certainly pay attention to this kind of situation.
This kind of shift in the supply chain has created great investment  opportunities in Taiwan.  

There is a war of tits and tats going on various economic , cyber security as well as on diplomatic levels and of course the war in Ukraine, the issues with Taiwan etc.

 

It is very much like the cold war and it is heating up.