China

[abyli]

On 4/13/2024 at 2:27 PM, RichardGibbons said:

I mean, even the Luca's "China's raising everyone up rather than just helping rich people" argument doesn't actually align with reality.  Pretty well every democratic country on earth has a lower Gini coefficient than China.

 

My guess is what he thinks of as evidence is actually propaganda, and he's ignoring the actual outcomes of the last 150 years of authoritarianism and communism.

 

It's pretty amazing to me that managed economies have been tried since Marx, and not one has even had close to the astounding beneficial results that arise from liberal free-market economies. And even more amazing that many people are so eager to completely ignore that evidence in favor of a story.

 

I am Chinese. I was born in China and now in US. I can tell that Luca has no clue what he is talking about. In China, 2.xx% people own 80% assets and 93% of people (around 1.3 Billion) owns 7% of total assets. Now the housing bubble is bursting (already down 30-40% from the peak in 2021), large home builders are filing bankruptcy one after another. (Hengda, BiGuiyuan, Wanke... ), local government owe so much debt (40 Trillion RMB + 60 Trillion RMB of City Investments companies, that is about total $14Trillion US dollar debt just for the local gov) that they do not even have cash to pay government employees. Financial crisis is ongoing because all those debts borrowed from big banks. All wakeup Chinese are trying to get out of the country, rich or poor. There is no future, no hope in the country. 

[formthirteen]

On 4/13/2024 at 6:20 PM, Ulti said:

https://www.britannica.com/topic/philosopher-king

 

This seems to have been implemented in Iran. This is from the brittanica.com link:

 

Quote

Meanwhile, in the Islamic world, the medieval philosopher Abū Naṣr al-Fārābī had championed the notion of a religiously devout philosopher king. More than 1,000 years later the notion of such a figure acting as the interpreter of law inspired the Ayatollah Khomeini and the revolutionary state that he shaped in Iran. Finally, and more broadly, the notion of the philosopher ruler has come to signify a general claim to domination by an unaccountable, if putatively beneficent, elite, as in certain forms of Marxism and other revolutionary political movements.

 

[Ulti]

19 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

More than 1,000 years later the notion of such a figure acting as the interpreter of law inspired the Ayatollah Khomeini and the revolutionary state that he shaped in Iran.

I read that and thought of the late 19th century quote .. to paraphrase...

Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.. Seems to be catching on all over the world.

https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/absolute-power-corrupts-absolutely.html

[Parsad]

Chinese accounting books are about as fair and accurate:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-runner-win-invites-suspicion-115741551.html

 

Hilarious!  They're waving him forward because he was still so slow compared to them running at half speed.

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-city-zhengzhou-tells-state-055850040.html

 

Cheers!

[whatstheofficerproblem]

14 hours ago, abyli said:

All wakeup Chinese are trying to get out of the country, rich or poor. There is no future, no hope in the country. 

 

I don't know if you're being sarcastic here. Sure, China has its flaws & ofcourse there is propaganda around but this statement seems a little farfetched.

 

I notice that you've had positions in China in the past, you've held PDD since IPO, do you still hold it? Also JD & BABA. What is your view on Chinese equities right now if you don't mind me asking. How do you see the equities market in China going forward, has your perception changed over the years? How much significance do you place on the broader macro here? Since you're from the country originally, your insight would be worth knowing.

[Hektor]

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/china-growth-forecasts-alibaba-stock-155814f4

 

Chinese growth blew past expectations in the first quarter, but official figures of gross domestic product (GDP) released Tuesday belie wider weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, including persistent pressures from the property sector. 

Analysts see China’s economic recovery—on which the fortunes of some widely-held stocks rest—as fragile.

 

 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

Chinese growth blew past expectations in the first quarter, but official figures of gross domestic product (GDP) released Tuesday belie wider weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, including persistent pressures from the property sector.

 

Bold of you to post it on here knowing it will be called fake. The hate China gets is somewhat justified, but this thread has the same arguments repeated over and over with the same rebuttals given over and over. This thread has taken a couple inches off my hairline, a very frustrating read.

[Sweet]

7 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

Bold of you to post it on here knowing it will be called fake. The hate China gets is somewhat justified, but this thread has the same arguments repeated over and over with the same rebuttals given over and over. This thread has taken a couple inches off my hairline, a very frustrating read.

Why is it bold to post that? 

 

I didn’t detect anyone complaining about commentary like this.

[Hektor]

7 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Bold of you to post it on here knowing it will be called fake. The hate China gets is somewhat justified, but this thread has the same arguments repeated over and over with the same rebuttals given over and over. This thread has taken a couple inches off my hairline, a very frustrating read.

Not my opinion. It’s an excerpt from the article, so that one can decide to click and read more or simply ignore

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, Hektor said:

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/china-growth-forecasts-alibaba-stock-155814f4

 

 

Chinese growth blew past expectations in the first quarter, but official figures of gross domestic product (GDP) released Tuesday belie wider weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, including persistent pressures from the property sector. 

Analysts see China’s economic recovery—on which the fortunes of some widely-held stocks rest—as fragile.

 

 

Alibaba falling seems to be a case of where economic good news is bad news for the stock market. I have heard another economic forecaster talking about the Chinese economy looking stronger than predicted.

 

Here is the version on Archive:

https://archive.ph/IRPMZ

[abyli]

15 hours ago, Hektor said:

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/china-growth-forecasts-alibaba-stock-155814f4

 

 

Chinese growth blew past expectations in the first quarter, but official figures of gross domestic product (GDP) released Tuesday belie wider weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, including persistent pressures from the property sector. 

Analysts see China’s economic recovery—on which the fortunes of some widely-held stocks rest—as fragile.

 

 

 

Q1 2024 29.6Trillion

Q1 2023 28.5 Trillion

 

29.6/28.5 = 103.9%, that was 3.9% increase from Q1 2023, where did the 5.3% come from? 

 

Q4 2023 34.4Trillion

29.6/34.4 = 86%, so Q1 2024 was down 14% from last quarter Q4 2023. 

 

It is obvious all those GDP numbers are faked.... 

 

 

[abyli]

16 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

I don't know if you're being sarcastic here. Sure, China has its flaws & ofcourse there is propaganda around but this statement seems a little farfetched.

 

I notice that you've had positions in China in the past, you've held PDD since IPO, do you still hold it? Also JD & BABA. What is your view on Chinese equities right now if you don't mind me asking. How do you see the equities market in China going forward, has your perception changed over the years? How much significance do you place on the broader macro here? Since you're from the country originally, your insight would be worth knowing.

 

No, I dare not touch Chinese equities any more. I like PDD the company, I trust the management team. The key question is if CEO of any Chinese company cannot even protect his own life, how can he/she protect your interest? Remember, this is a communist country. There is no law to protect private properties. The government can take away your house anytime, can make you disappear any day. The communist party control the government, control the police, control the court, control all the big banks, control all the media. Now with digital tools, the gov can control every single posts online (they can remove your posts, can block your accounts, can send you into prison just because you said one word they considered wrong), they have records of every word you typed in WeChat. Before 2012, the top 7 guys from CCP make big decisions as a group. Now Xi has the power to stay there forever.... 

[Sweet]

6 hours ago, abyli said:

 

Q1 2024 29.6Trillion

Q1 2023 28.5 Trillion

 

29.6/28.5 = 103.9%, that was 3.9% increase from Q1 2023, where did the 5.3% come from? 

 

Q4 2023 34.4Trillion

29.6/34.4 = 86%, so Q1 2024 was down 14% from last quarter Q4 2023. 

 

It is obvious all those GDP numbers are faked.... 

 

 

Where are you getting those GDP figures from?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Thanks for the insight @abyli, but wasn't this the case a few years ago too? Everything you mentioned has been that way since Xi came into power. You were bullish then, what was the nail in the coffin for you? the virus?

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, Sweet said:

Where are you getting those GDP figures from?

Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Thanks for the insight @abyli, but wasn't this the case a few years ago too? Everything you mentioned has been that way since Xi came into power. You were bullish then, what was the nail in the coffin for you? the virus?

Xi came into power in 2013 but it did only became gradually obvious that Chinese way of checks and balances within the party (via committees and fractions and term limits  ) are replaced with one man Neo Maoist rule.

 

The Frog is slowly getting boiled, I guess.

 

I have a few shares of BABA which I intend to hold, but I have a hard time seeing me making a large investment in Chinese equities until something changes for the better.

Edited April 17 by Spekulatius

[Sweet]

16 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html

 

17 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html

Thanks.  That’s not 5.3%

[zippy1]

2 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Thanks.  That’s not 5.3%

Some suspected that the Q1 2023 GDP was "quietly" revised down to make the Q1 2024 5.3% growth.
Of course, that begs the question whether later on the Q1 2024 GDP number would be revised down quietly...

[abyli]

5 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Thanks for the insight @abyli, but wasn't this the case a few years ago too? Everything you mentioned has been that way since Xi came into power. You were bullish then, what was the nail in the coffin for you? the virus?

 

Yes, you are right. You know, all Chinese were brain-washed since they were born, and they are still brain-washed 24 hours every day. That is why China blocked all international websites so that they can run their propaganda machine powerfully. The covid-19 woke me up. 

[crs223]

2 hours ago, abyli said:

 

all Chinese were brain-washed since they were born, and they are still brain-washed 24 hours every day.

 

What are some things that Chinese people don't know?

[abyli]

1 hour ago, crs223 said:

 

What are some things that Chinese people don't know?

Give you a few example: 1. In World War II, it was Communists who fought Japanese mainly. 2. In 1949 Communists won the domestic war because Communists are popular in China. 3. All major global issues happen because of USA: Russia went into Ukraine because of NATO and USA. 4. The China economy is not currently doing well because US sanctions China. 5. USA the empire always wants to overthrow China. (美帝国主义忘我之心不死)。。。

[Sweet]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-68838219

 

Good article that mixes the concerns of the West, the receding of manufacturer from China, and shows that even though we are not at war with China there is a real human cost to this as well.  Can't help but feel sorry for the many ordinary Chinese - although I would note that 40 years ago it was Western workers that were in the same boat.  Still a sober story.

[Sweet]

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/china-jan-mar-foreign-direct-investment-fell-26-1-on-year-to-cny301-67-bln-1f812956

 

FDI into China dropped 26% yoy

[Spekulatius]

Pretty good and short assessment of the situation from Sarah Paine :

 

She is correct (imo) that dictators tend to tell anyone who will listen what they are going to do, before they do it. She very well explains the difference between maritime and continental order and how cooperation creates wealth via win win versus expansion and win-lose.

Edited April 21 by Spekulatius