Russia-Ukrainian War

[formthirteen]

There's a new war, and I'm afraid the Western public support for Ukraine will diminish if Elon and Zuck fight at the Colosseum

 

 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

@Xerxes,

 

I curse you [J/K], now I need to buy that book, too! 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Since the war started last year I have been wondering what has happened to that enormous combination of a gas station and construction work in progress called Gazprom and its financing, because there is a lot [many billions of USD] of western financing on the ongoing pipeline constructions. Are these debt obligations being served or what?

Well, for once, Gazprom has been "investing" in it's own mercenary forces amongst other things.

https://time.com/6254708/gazprom-private-military-wagner-group-russia/

 

I guess Wagner is dead, long live Wagner two. I am sure some Wagner old timers find they way there - after all they are mercenaries.

[Xerxes]

11 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

@Xerxes,

 

I curse you [J/K], now I need to buy that book, too! 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Since the war started last year I have been wondering what has happened to that enormous combination of a gas station and construction work in progress called Gazprom and its financing, because there is a lot [many billions of USD] of western financing on the ongoing pipeline constructions. Are these debt obligations being served or what?

my pleasure. 
I finished reading the book. It was an incredible read. 
 

I think all of us read The Prize (most of us) this book weaves into the world of traders and who kept adapting as macro picture changed. 
 

I have heard a lot of Glendora, Marc Rich, Glasenberg, the commodity trader Andrew Hall at Citigroup and his oil trades, the rivalry between Xtransa and Glencore on the sought after coal assets, this brings all together. 
 

makes me wanted to listen Glencore’ investor day for fiscal 2020, when the virus start the spread 

[Spekulatius]

Inside Prighozin Wagner

Tells the story about how Wagner group evolved in the Ukraine conflict in 2014, their success in Syria, which they are now duplicating in Central African Republic and other states like Mali, Mozambique, Venezuela .

 

I Syria they get 25% of the revenues from any oil field they captures from rebels. It’s industrialized  

Edited July 1, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

Awesome, thank you for sharing, @Spekulatius,

 

Purpose plausible deniability, and in this week we've got videos on Twitter, where Putin is putting numbers on the "chef" activities, and PMC activities, drowned somewhere in the Russian state budget. I only find it a bit amusing, because I've not been contributing to it.

 

The man is simply loosing it.

Edited July 1, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

@John Hjorth The YouTube Clip Form the WSJ is an excellent piece of journalism. It’s funny when people here complain about MSM because as far as I am concerned, if you care to look, you find excellent articles from MSM and other sources. It’s not difficult either.

 

As far as the Wagner group is concerned, I was surprised how they operate as a commercial company with their impressive headquarter and that they operate mines themselves (I thought they operate as security in exchange for a cut before I saw this), drill for oil on their own concessions.

 

Now Wagner probably will be disbanded but you hear already that Russian companies like Gazprom are building their own “ security forces”. It will be interesting to see if the Wagner co will continue to operate in Africa under their old flag or just change superficially. I am sure they won’t just leave and give up gold mines or oil concessions.

[John Hjorth]

Ian Fleming did not know, that what he was "inventing" - making up and thinking up with the use of his imagination and fantasy in 1961 while finishing the manus to Thunderball introducing SPECTRE would end up later to become quite similar to the playbook of Wagner PMC. All, from Russia with love.

 

A tapeworm, but the logo is clearly an Octopus. It's deeply concerning.

[UK]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/

 

 

[cubsfan]

A little clip on the US military response to the Wagner Group in Syria:

 

 

[ValueArb]

33 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

A little clip on the US military response to the Wagner Group in Syria:

 

 

 

Wagner historically seems similar to pirates. Men join because they are promised high pay and a share of plunder from their raids, but the lower level recruits get fed into meatgrinders like this one trying to capture an Oil Refinery, while the higher level guys hang back and take most of the booty when they succeed.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

Wagner historically seems similar to pirates. Men join because they are promised high pay and a share of plunder from their raids, but the lower level recruits get fed into meatgrinders like this one trying to capture an Oil Refinery, while the higher level guys hang back and take most of the booty when they succeed.

The Wagner have a pretty spotty track record according to this article:

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russian-mercenaries-a-string-of-failures-in-africa/
 

If they meet a well equipped and motivated opponent, they don’t tend to do all that well.

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The Wagner have a pretty spotty track record according to this article:

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russian-mercenaries-a-string-of-failures-in-africa/
 

If they meet a well equipped and motivated opponent, they don’t tend to do all that well.

In today's conflict, two equally equipped peers will have difficulty moving the battle lines. This is what we are witnessing from Ukraine/Russia conflict. I think that's going to be the way forward. 

 

The oil refinery fiasco in Syria was the US airforce and precision artilerry having a field day with ground forces with no air or anti-air support.  Russia and Wagner have done a decent job adjusting in the Ukraine/Russian conflict to neutralize HIMARS and take advantage of Ukraine's shorting of anti-air and unleashing the helicopters. 

[John Hjorth]

Has anybody seen any tangible / solid information about the whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin recently [in the last week]?

[UK]

9 hours ago, cubsfan said:

A little clip on the US military response to the Wagner Group in Syria:

 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/wagner-syria-russia-battle-united-states/

 

And the incident also offered an early indication of the tensions to come between Prigozhin and Russia’s military leadership. The apparent loss of dozens of Wagner fighters in a single night in Syria allegedly infuriated Prigozhin, who earlier this month put out his account of the 2018 events on the social media platform Telegram. In his telling, the Wagner expedition was supposed to be the advance force of an “anti-ISIS” operation that would secure control over the plant and its environs with air support from the Russian military. But that support never came, and Prigozhin was left fuming at Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov for allowing his fighters to become U.S. cannon fodder. According to U.S. officials in 2018, their Russian counterparts denied involvement in the battle and, during emergency discussions as the fighting raged, assented to the use of American air power on the scene. A U.S. official told my colleagues five years ago that it was “striking how the Russians themselves have been quick to distance themselves” from what he described as an operation “under Syrian command and in response to Syrian directive.” “The Russian high command in Syria assured us it was not their people,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told senators in testimony in April 2018. He said he directed Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “for the [attacking] force, then, to be annihilated.”

[John Hjorth]

ICPA - Eurojust.

 

Now, just wait patiently and see how this initiative is going to play out.

Edited July 3, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

21 hours ago, cubsfan said:

A little clip on the US military response to the Wagner Group in Syria:

 

 

thanks for posting. I vividly recall that event when it happened.
 

That said, I am not a fan of this specific video because (1)  it was produced recently with recent events in mind (I.e Wagnor) “I.e hey let’s make a video where Wagnor gets destroyed” (2) I was never fan of non-historians writing up stuff into short clips and throwing on YouTube. 

 

I prefer work that was written back then, and not produced now because of the connection to Ukraine War. Two books comes in mind, one of which was cited on Aviation Week. Shown below. Now published. I have not read  

 

another focus specifically on Russian engagement in Syria. I have not read. 
 

https://www.amazon.ca/Operation-Aleppo-Russias-War-Syria/dp/0992945828

 

[cubsfan]

@Xerxes - yeah, definitely understand that position. There was so little news about that incident ever on the news.  It was actively supressed. Thanks for the Aviation Week article - cause that is one I have not seen.

 

Regardless, the Syrian incident is a good account of the Wagner Group in action, driven by their 25% take - and figuring somehow the US might run/cower from the attack. Serious miscalculation.

 

Never heard another think from Putin in Syria after that response.

 

"Plausible deniability at work"

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by cubsfan

[Xerxes]

A lot changed in the past several decades, yet much remains the same: concerns about the economy and the geopolitics 

 

Time magazine cover page in Feb 1984 and March 1984; doom and gloom

 

couple of years later Chernenko died making way for Gorbachev and the economy did just fine 

[Spekulatius]

The problem with Syria of course is that while Wagner lost a few men (which are expendable for them) they remain firmly entrenched there and used their Syrian playbook to repeat their business model in several countries on Africa.

 

The US won a battle and lost the war.

[Xerxes]

Been watching the WSJ documentary on Wagner:

 

- great documentary (WSJ rocks)

 

- I found the comment about “Kremlin could not be reached for comments” hilarious 

 

- given the boss extensive network explained in this documentary, I am thinking he may not actually be “dead man walking” … at least not in the short term 

====Warning: if you are a westerner based in North America and/or Europe, living the dream, you may find this following comment disturbing. Apologies in advance. Perhaps actually don’t read it====

 

- Wagner is basically a modern age version of British East India Company. Without the benefit of existing 200 years ago, which allowed its Western glorification compound faster than facts !  
 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

6 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Been watching the WSJ documentary on Wagner:

 

- great documentary (WSJ rocks)

 

- I found the comment about “Kremlin could not be reached for comments” hilarious 

 

- given the boss extensive network explained in this documentary, I am thinking he may not actually be “dead man walking” … at least not in the short term 

====Warning: if you are a westerner based in North America and/or Europe, living the dream, you may find this following comment disturbing. Apologies in advance. Perhaps actually don’t read it====

 

- Wagner is basically a modern age version of British East India Company. Without the benefit of existing 200 years ago, which allowed its Western glorification compound faster than facts !  
 

 

 

 

 

Upthread it was stated that Wagner are more like pirates, but I think they are more like Privateers. Same job than pirates, but commissioned by the state/crown (British empire mostly).

Difference is that pirates work for their own, Mercenaries work for whoever pays most, but Privateers were private ventures who worked for the crown but used monetary incentives to wage war on the sea on enemy vessels. I am not sure that plausible deniability term existed back then, but I am sure the crown could not be reached for comments back then regarding this business either.

[Spekulatius]

Happy belated 4th of July to all those who check in here:

 

[cubsfan]

^^^^ That was quite enjoyable!

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg [July 6^th 2023] : Russia Gas Giant Warns of Sanctions Risk for Ukraine Energy Firm.

 

This has the potential to turn really bad - for both Europe and Russia. I have mentioned the gas pipelines in Ukraine before upstream in this topic and their importance, everyone seem to skip or disregard this matter / issue.

 

Gazprom PJSC CEO Alexei Miller has for long now looked like something dragged inside the house by the cat, when he has been seen in videos. I think nobody envies him his job. 

 

Really bad, when international trade gets messed up with geopolitics.

 

Personally I speculate that this could evolve and escalate into something worse than last autumn and winter in the European gas markets.

Edited July 7, 2023 by John Hjorth

[UK]

51 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Bloomberg [July 6^th 2023] : Russia Gas Giant Warns of Sanctions Risk for Ukraine Energy Firm.

 

This has the potential to turn really bad - for both Europe and Russia. I have mentioned the gas pipelines in Ukraine before upstream in this topic and their importance, everyone seem to skip or disregard this matter / issue.

 

Gazprom PJSC CEO Alexei Miller has for long now looked like something dragged inside the house by the cat, when he has been seen in videos. I think nobody envies him his job. 

 

Really bad, when international trade gets messed up with geopolitics.

 

Personally I speculate that this could evolve and escalate into something worse than last autumn and winter in the European gas markets.

 

I am not sure, but it seems that these remaining flows is about 9 per cent of total pre war EU gas import from Russia? Still could be painful for some countries (including Hungary), but maybe manageable / already not the issue for most EU?

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by UK