Russia-Ukrainian War

[Dinar]

23 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

The 51st Mounted Vodka Brigade is already celebrating the victory over Poland:

 

 

No opinion on the war other than it will be a long one and both sides seem to be losing.

You know Poles crushed Communists when they invaded Poland in 1919, thank God for Pilsudski

[Xerxes]

Viking

agreed that we don’t know anything nor have all the facts. 

[Pelagic]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

I guarantee you (IMO) that of all the things that has happened here in the past six months, the two missile that accidentally (allegedly) went on the other side is not going to high on the list. Once the powwow settles down and once media are done amplifying it and moved on to the next story to amplify. 

 

I think broadly speaking you're right. But there's a handful of factions within NATO that can be categorized by their support for Ukraine, and this extends to factions within member states as well. They range from direct military intervention in Ukraine to let Ukraine kill Russians until the last Ukrainian. So far the US has taken a more restrained approach fearing more involvement and aid on their end could provoke Russia even more evidenced by them not providing things ATACAMs, fighter aircraft, western main battle tanks, etc.

 

Poland on the other hand has been one of the factions calling for NATO to do more to aid Ukraine. If it turns out Russian missiles struck Poland and killed Polish citizens, the Polish faction's voice becomes a lot louder and more insistent on the point of giving Ukraine what it needs to win. At the absolute minimum I think we see a bubble of NATO air defense that extends over western Ukraine and takes a proactive approach to shooting down anything Russian that comes near the Polish border.

[shhughes1116]

4 hours ago, Luca said:

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-missiles-kill-two-people-in-nato-member-poland-us-intelligence-official-says-12748369

 

This is bad, wondering if NATO will do something.

I don’t think NATO’s approach to this conflict will change on the basis of two missiles that landed in Poland.  They’ll continue to provide arms for Ukraine, and maybe they’ll expedite some air defense equipment.  
 

Poland, Slovakia, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia will likely argue for an air defense “umbrella” covering the western portion of Ukraine, using units based in Poland.  I don’t think other NATO countries will be interested in doing this since it will appear to escalate the conflict.  

Edited November 15, 2022 by shhughes1116

[shhughes1116]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

Shhughes you seem to be pretty close to the situation. Or following very closely.  
 

The only part of your post I could relate too or comment about is that it was fall of Sevastopol that gained Von Manstein his Field Marshal’ Baton !! 

Manstein was an impressive tactician and strategist, and his most notable successes were when the odds were stacked against him.  His work to execute a fighting withdrawal after Operation Uranus while at the same time extricating Army Group  A from the Caucasus region was genius.  Bubblegum and some string to hold the German lines together.

 

I follow the events in Ukraine closely.  I have a handful of Russian and Ukrainian sources that aren’t well-followed but have been reliable.  But the bulk of my analysis is based on an understanding of the geography, an understanding of each country’s system of warfare and logistics,  an understanding of their underlying capabilities for generating and maintaining an army in the field, etc.  Pattern recognition.  

[no_free_lunch]

The missile attack, regardless of intent, is not going to trigger article 5. I think pelagic is right it can be used to boost aid or direct air defense, maybe a few more sanctions but that's it.  The Ukrainian sources I follow would obviously like escalation but nobody really seems to expect it.

Edited November 16, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

 

President Andrzej Duda said the projectile was “Russian-made” and variously referred to it as either a missile or a rocket.

“What happened was an isolated incident,” said Duda, who added that an investigation is underway. “There is no indication that more will take place”

Poland is a member of NATO. The development set off a chain of diplomatic activity among members of the alliance and Ukraine, which is not a NATO member but which gets massive military aid from the alliance.

U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Duda and “offered full U.S. support for an assistance with Poland’s investigation,” the White House said. “President Biden reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to NATO.”

 

From CNBC

Missile strike Poland called 'isolated incident'; allies 'on standby' (cnbc.com)

[Xerxes]

Here is another situation, where in this case NATO bombed the Chinese embassy, an entire building, and called it an accident. If that was an accident, than I think one can let go suspision of Kremlin targetting poor farmers in Poland and for what.

 

The night the US bombed a Chinese embassy - BBC News

United States bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade - Wikipedia

 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Xerxes

[Dinar]

13 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Here is another situation, where in this case NATO bombed the Chinese embassy, an entire building, and called it an accident. If that was an accident, than I think one can let go suspision of Kremlin targetting poor farmers in Poland and for what.

 

The night the US bombed a Chinese embassy - BBC News

United States bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade - Wikipedia

 

 

Don't forget Kursk submarine accident.  If I remember correctly, there were rumors that a US sub accidentally rammed it.  

[no_free_lunch]

Agree with you both. There is also the time that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter along the Syrian Turkish border.  That too did not result in ww3 or really any reaction from Russia so there is obviously some room for a NATO response here, if needed. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown

[UK]

Seems like some friendly fire after all. However, not sure how much it is true, but it also seems that a very high percentage of  Russian rockets from the last barrage were very successfully taken down by improving Ukraine air defense. Germany and other western countries have some really effective hardware:)

[Gregmal]

So it actually might have been Ukraine? Lol

 

But hey, it’s newsworthy and clickbait because everyone knows tons of people always take the Russia bait. 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, UK said:

Seems like some friendly fire after all. However, not sure how much it is true, but it also seems that a very high percentage of  Russian rockets from the last barrage were very successfully taken down by improving Ukraine air defense. Germany and other western countries have some really effective hardware:)

The problem is that Ukraine's airspace is huge, so it's hard to cover it all.

The likely solution is longer range missiles so Ukraine can destroy the drone and missile bases where these missiles and drones are coming from. The location of those is known and some come from Crimea and Russian ships.

Same idea when Himars were delivered to counter the Russian artillery barrages in Summer with something more precise and with longer range. That artillery advantage went away quickly when those Himars went on the battle field.

 

Same will happen when Ukraine gets a weapon to counter these rocket and drone barrages.

[aws]

10 hours ago, Gregmal said:

So it actually might have been Ukraine? Lol

 

But hey, it’s newsworthy and clickbait because everyone knows tons of people always take the Russia bait. 

 

Two people dying is hardly clickbait. It is clearly a newsworthy event that would be published quickly, and it is impossible to know all the facts right away. It is Russia's responsibility regardless, the only question was if it was an intentional strike on another country. It is likely that either it is a remnant from an intercepted missile, or an air defense missile that missed its mark, but either way those people would not have been dead unless Russia launched those missiles at targets near Poland's border.

Edited November 16, 2022 by aws

[Xerxes]

 

finally someone who knows what he is talking about.

I mean within the circle of officials. Not commenting against anyone in this thread. I am equally ignorant. 

[Spekulatius]

4 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

finally someone who knows what he is talking about.

I mean within the circle of officials. Not commenting against anyone in this thread. I am equally ignorant. 

Actually, he said that a victory soon (which he has defined in the next couple of weeks before ) would be unlikely. Nobody here believes that a complete victory is possible in weeks. The commentator from CNN  actually has repeated this  incorrectly.

Kicking the Russians out of Ukraine will take month, maybe another year. I do not see a reason why it is not possible. I also think a political solution is possible. This is not exactly as earth shaking than the CNN reporter makes it sound, imo.

[aws]

Ukraine has taken back slightly over half of the territory occupied since the 2022 invasion. At that rate they could liberate the rest of the country by sometime in 2023, but I wouldn't expect the progress to be linear throughout the war. Russia has taken astounding losses in materiel that they cannot replace. They have new manpower after the mobilization, but they are equipping them with body armor from Alibaba, Mosin-Nagant rifles from the late 1800s, and T-62 tanks. The Russian war machine is too hollowed out by corruption to be able build back up to the fighting strength they had at the start of the war. The way I see it going for Russia, to paraphrase Hemingway:

 

How did you lose the war?
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

Edited November 18, 2022 by aws

[no_free_lunch]

Some serious strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure in the past couple days.  It will be tough times for the population.  That said they will get through it. With so much of the weapon supply coming from abroad, I'm not sure that Russia can stop the war effort in this manner.  Would these strikes not be better expended on Ukrainian command and control or targeting weapons supply?  Im obviously one sided but stepping back Russia seems weak and flailing.  

Edited November 18, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[UK]

6 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

finally someone who knows what he is talking about.

I mean within the circle of officials. Not commenting against anyone in this thread. I am equally ignorant. 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mark-milley-and-the-coming-civil-military-crisis-joint-chiefs-ukraine-negotiation-russia-politics-president-11668634194

[Xerxes]

39 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Some serious strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure in the past couple days.  It will be tough times for the population.  That said they will get through it. With so much of the weapon supply coming from abroad, I'm not sure that Russia can stop the war effort in this manner.  Would these strikes not be better expended on Ukrainian command and control or targeting weapons supply?  Im obviously one sided but stepping back Russia seems weak and flailing.  

my guess is that they (Russia) has far better intelligence about Ukrainian infrastructure since Ukraine inherited the old Soviet energy, power etc infrastructure. And those are fixed and highly knowable targets.
 

whereas the intelligence from command and control, weapons depot location is not there. As they are far more mobile. And probably better “managed” by the Ukrainians since the start of war given that they are obvious targets.. 
 

lastly, I also think the Russian missile campaign against infrastructure has been months in the making. The media here has painted it as knee-jerk reaction to the bombing of Kerch bridge and Ukrainian rapid advance in Kharkiv. But I believe it was always bound to happen. But the timing was set by the Kremlin to be on the eve of the Winter for maximum impact. Perhaps pulled forward by a few weeks so that can also “package” it as well as a response to Kerch, while they are at it. 
 

 

Edited November 18, 2022 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

16 minutes ago, UK said:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mark-milley-and-the-coming-civil-military-crisis-joint-chiefs-ukraine-negotiation-russia-politics-president-11668634194

 

damn. Paywall. But I got the first paragraph and the jest of it.
 

Well, the general is a student of military history and a no non-sense military man. But he is also subordinate to his civilian commander in chief. And therefore should probably keep in line of the chain of command. 
 

I ll look to find that speech that he supposedly gave to the economic forum. 

[Xerxes]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Actually, he said that a victory soon (which he has defined in the next couple of weeks before ) would be unlikely. Nobody here believes that a complete victory is possible in weeks. The commentator from CNN  actually has repeated this  incorrectly.

Kicking the Russians out of Ukraine will take month, maybe another year. I do not see a reason why it is not possible. I also think a political solution is possible. This is not exactly as earth shaking than the CNN reporter makes it sound, imo.

anything is possible and clearly I am not the one who is going to guess correctly.
 

But I would caution against extrapolating the trend line. You can have multiple reversion to the mean, for various completely unrelated non-military and military reasons. 
 

when a war goes on for 4 years or 6 years, it was never foreseen to last that long in the first year. There could periods where both sides just lick their wounds for months on ! Before another phase of high intensity activities starts. 
 

Edited November 18, 2022 by Xerxes

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/17/ukraine-has-momentum-what-it-needs-now-are-munitions

 

More ambitious still is the third option: a major attack south from Zaporizhia towards Melitopol and beyond to sever Russia’s so-called land bridge to Crimea, and possibly thence along the Sea of Azov coastline to Mariupol. Mr Zelensky had pressed for such an offensive in the summer, but was talked out of it by his own generals, after American and British wargaming showed how difficult and costly such a thrust would be. Russia evidently sees this as a possibility. It is churning out miniature concrete pyramids, known as dragon’s teeth, and probably laying them around Mariupol to block oncoming armour. Satellite images show excavators digging zig-zag trenches at the entrance to Crimea. These entrenchments and fortifications are “old-fashioned and static”, says a Western official, “but also fit for purpose”. There is no doubt that Russia’s army is in poor shape. Ukrainian intelligence says that Russia has only around 120 Iskander ballistic missiles remaining in its arsenal. The situation with artillery ammunition is even worse. Western officials have told The Economist that Russia has around a month’s worth of it left—one reason why it decided to abandon the Kherson front. But Ukraine faces some of the same limitations. It is running short of many different types of ammunition, including the air-defence interceptors needed to parry Iranian-supplied drones and Russian missiles. It has been on the offensive since August. It has also taken heavy casualties. Mark Milley, the chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, said on November 9th that Ukraine, like Russia, had suffered approximately 100,000 casualties, either killed or wounded. Sceptics, including General Milley, argue that Ukraine’s main offensives are probably over for the winter. They argue that Ukraine’s ground offensives in Kherson were not much different from Russia’s in Donbas—slow, crude and relatively ineffective—and that the earlier breakthrough in Kharkiv occurred only because Russian lines were woefully undermanned, a condition that is unlikely to obtain elsewhere as mobilised recruits arrive in greater numbers and Russia redeploys more than 30,000 soldiers freed up from Kherson. Optimists point to Ukraine’s advantages. It has 200,000 to 300,000 combat-capable troops, against fewer than 100,000 Russians in the field. Morale among Ukrainian forces is sky-high, a key factor in winter warfare, in which soldiers must bear acute hardship. It also has the edge in precision firepower, thanks to gps-guided shells and rockets, such as Excalibur artillery rounds. Ukraine’s success in Kherson ultimately offers reasons for both optimism and caution, says Michael Kofman of cna, a think-tank. It shows that Ukraine, if adequately supplied, can take back territory over time, but also that future offensives are more likely to be slow, attritional battles than Kharkiv-like Blitzkrieg. Ammunition, for artillery and air defence, is “the most decisive factor”, argues Mr Kofman. Ukrainian units on the attack will eat through more of it than Russian ones on the defence. They are already consuming a majority of America’s monthly production of gmlrs, the gps-guided rockets fired by himars, according to one source. The good news is that America and its European allies are beginning to expand ammunition production. The bad news is that Ukraine may not feel the benefit until next summer. Mr Zelensky might note that after Churchill more modestly pronounced the end of the beginning after the second battle of El Alamein in 1942, the war still had three long years to run.

 

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/11/16/russia-needs-a-respite-so-the-west-must-help-ukraine-fight-on

 

Some American officials are showing signs of nerves. Mark Milley, America’s top general, has likened the conflict to the stalemate of the first world war. He has cast doubt on Ukraine’s ability to shift the front lines farther and suggested that it should consider negotiations with the Kremlin. His diagnosis and prescription are both flawed. Russia’s army is in dire shape and on the retreat. Its withdrawal from Kherson earlier this month reflects a serious shortage of artillery ammunition. Precision munitions are running out, which is why Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid rely on Iranian drones. And even as the seasons bring mud and bitter cold, Ukraine, well stocked with Western winter gear, will keep fighting.
Russia needs a pause. It should not be given one. For Ukraine to press its advantage, it requires a steady supply of Western arms, ammunition and equipment. Top of the list is air defence. As its Soviet-era systems run low on ammunition it needs additional Western launchers that can be replenished more easily—including longer-range Patriot batteries. Air defences can also spark a virtuous circle that would allow Ukraine to ramp up its own arms production without fear of having factories destroyed. Its army hopes to raise as many as a dozen new brigades for a future offensive. They will need a large fleet of armoured vehicles. On November 15th the Biden administration asked Congress for over $37bn in emergency aid to Ukraine—more than the defence budgets of Australia, Canada or Italy. Europe must show the same sense of urgency. Russia’s air attacks should serve as the trigger for the dispatch of tanks, such as German Leopards. European allies should create a fund to support the provision of Sweden’s Gripen fighter jets, which are easy to maintain and well suited to Ukraine’s flexible operation. This week’s incident, and the danger that setbacks on the battlefield will lead Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to escalate, including with nuclear weapons, show the importance of maintaining channels of communication with Russia. That is why Bill Burns, the director of the cia, was right to meet his Russian counterpart in Turkey on November 14th. The door to a future diplomatic settlement, when both Ukraine and Russia are ready for one, should be left open. But a ceasefire now would be deeply disadvantageous to Ukraine, halting its momentum and giving Russia breathing space to restock its arsenal and prepare a fresh army. This is not the moment to let up.

 

Edited November 18, 2022 by UK

[no_free_lunch]

According to ISW, Russia is self documenting forced deportation of children from Ukraine, a move that is classified as genocide.

 

Quote

Russian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. Prominent Russian milbloggers began circulating a multi-part documentary series on November 9 featuring several Ukrainian children from Donbas after being adopted into Russian families.[1] The documentary series claims that Russian officials have evacuated over 150,000 children from Donbas in 2022 alone.[2] It is unclear exactly how Russian sources are calculating this figure, and Ukrainian officials previously estimated this number to be 6,000 to 8,000.[3] Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov additionally stated he is working with Russian Federation Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova to bring “difficult teenagers” from various Russian regions and occupied Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts to Chechnya to engage in “preventative work” and “military-patriotic education.”[4] Lvova-Belova has continually advocated for deportations and adoptions of Ukrainian children and herself adopted a child from Mariupol.[5] Forced adoption programs and the deportation of children under the guise of vacation and rehabilitation schemes likely form the backbone of a massive Russian depopulation campaign that may amount to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and constitute a wider ethnic cleansing effort, as ISW has previously reported.[6]

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16

[UK]

https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-russias-nuclear-capable-kh-55-missile/