Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, tnp20 said:

Ukraine has the upper hand in morale, equipment and momentum. Where does Ukraine stop and declare a ceasefire ? Is Crimea also included in that plan to liberate ?

 

Will Russia just sit back and take the losses and  say oh, we are done, we are going to just withdraw with tail between our legs ?

 

Outside of a coupe and Putin being forced from power, it only escalates from here. No way a cornered rat like Putin not bring nuclear weapons into the conflict. The referendum is just a way to expand the boundaries for what is officially Russia and when mother Russia is threatened, they will legitimize the use of nuclear weapons. Initially it will be via warnings and threats and red lines and some point when those red lines are over run - they will make escalate nuclear posture and use it - and say we told you so and you crossed our red line and we had no option but to use nuclear weapons.

 

We need an exit plan for both sides. We need a face saving way to get Putin off the ledge and end this. In negotiations no one is happy. Everyone has to give a little.

 

 

 

 

There is a low chance of a coup. There is more power concentrated today in the Kremlin than it has ever been. 

[Viking]

It looks to me like this war is just getting started. Putin just confirmed this. Off-ramp? Both side think they are winning. So my very uninformed guess is this will be a war that is waged until a victor emerges. And if it is Ukraine, the tail risks stop being tail risks. 

[Dinar]

50 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

@Dinar

 

Back in Feb-March, I argued for exit ramp, fortunately for Kiev (and unfortunately for the Kremlin) the conflict unfolded in a way that exit ramp is looking more and more remote. The sinking of the flagship in the Black Sea didn’t help either. 
 

We have for all intent and purposes linked ourselves as the “weapon supplier of last resort”. Kiev pretty much owns the narrative. 

The moment the West stops supplying weapons and money, Ukraine loses the war, so the West has leverage.

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-warns-russia-of-catastrophic-consequences-of-using-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-11664116188

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/

[Spekulatius]

With the more of less full mobilization and Russia switching to war economy, I can not see that this ends up in anything but an economic train wreck for them. I think they are likely to see a double digit decline in their economy.

 

headwinds are:

1) Sanctions

2) No NG exports to Europe (their own choice)

3) Mobilization & switch to war economy and war expenses

4) lower oil prices and having to sell oil at deep discounts

 

[Warner]

Never underestimate the Russian ability to sacrifice their own people. They have a long history of fighting this way.

“Don't cry, my lord, Russian mothers will produce more sons.” -this was told to Peter the Great on his defeat in Narva.

Sanctions have no affect on the majourity of the Russian people. Sanctions will not affect the general population like it would for Western countries.

Russia will likely win. What they get is the only question.

Putin remains in full control of Russian gov't. He is not going anywhere. 

BTW, the line up leaving Moscow to the Samara - Uralsk border point is 40km.

 

[Castanza]

Nobody is going to guess the outcome of this war based on single battles. Winter is coming and Russia is drafting. That gives some time for training with new troops even if it's nothing but navigation and simple tactics. Entrenchment seems likely. The first snow has already fallen in Ukraine. 

 

Remember, many of our boys in Vietnam got less than their "required" 8 weeks of training. The individuals being drafted may be against the fight but when that first bullet flies past their head their allegiance will be to the man next to them and they will fight. 
 

Russia in general doesn’t have the training facilities that we have in the US. It’s typical of their military to be trained once at command. The drafted will likely be divided into prior service etc. everything going on right now is to sure of the lines for winter so that they can attempt to fix their supply issues the . Some say that Putin is grasping at straws and that this is a last ditch effort. Is it? Because if this would have been done sooner it would have been an even bigger mess to try to manage counter attacks while also onboarding a new force. 
 

This is unprecedented an nobody has seen anything remotely close since WWII. The experts are in the dark on how this will turn out. But the one certain thing is, Russia is digging in. 

 

Giving Ukraine nuclear weapons would be a mistake. It does nothing but escalate the situation. It puts those assets at risk of capture or misuse. It also makes the US a target. Remember, in 2018 Russian Nuclear subs were found just 12 miles off the US coast. How long can support from the West last? If this war drags on for years can we continue to support Ukraine? 
 

Nuclear weapons are historically used defensively, not offensively. The likelihood of use goes up if the Russian military gets routed to a point that is unrecoverable. 

 

What does Russia have to lose at this point?  ...

 

Politicians in the West should be looking for an off-ramp. Otherwise, if you're 35 and under you might want to implement a timed mile, push-up, pull-up, sit-up regiment into your weekly schedule  

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Castanza

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Warner said:

Never underestimate the Russian ability to sacrifice their own people.

 

And we shouldn't forget that 20 million of them that died in WWII......the bodycount far exceeding any losses by any of the Allied forces in defeating Hitler. Putin doesnt forget of course......he draws a line in history from Russia's contribution to WWII , to the fall of the Berlin wall and assurances given to Gorbachev in 1990's during German re-unification about NATO aspirations to the East...& then of course the April 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit declaration from Bush out of nowhere around Ukraine/Georgia potnetially joining NATO.........and then the invasion by Russia into Georgia a few short months later ..bit of a conincidence.........then of course the 2014 Russia Crimea invasion after further NATO saber rattling.......then of course the recent phone calls from the United States president in 2019 to the President of Ukraine telling him to investigate his US rival or the ex-Vice Presidents son sitting on the board of Ukraine largest gas company with no energy experience........I dunno its like Ukraine was getting a bit puppety on the US side, dont you think.........then you got the Feb 2022 Russian invasion.......and I guess to the uninterested outsider it seemed it like it came out of nowhere cause Putin is a "lunatic".......god forbid we might for second think about why this is happening & what to do about it in a way that strips the whole sorry affair of nonsense narratives of good guys/bad guys....democracy/autocracy.......and have a think about solutions that dial down the aggregate human misery, the death and destruction and reduce the overarching probability of total nuclear annihilation (however slight that possibility is, it can ALWAYS & should always be made lower) 

Edited September 26, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

Nobody is going to guess the outcome of this war based on single battles. Winter is coming and Russia is drafting. That gives some time for training with new troops even if it's nothing but navigation and simple tactics. Entrenchment seems likely. The first snow has already fallen in Ukraine. 

 

Remember, many of our boys in Vietnam got less than their "required" 8 weeks of training. The individuals being drafted may be against the fight but when that first bullet flies past their head their allegiance will be to the man next to them and they will fight. 

 

 

Very well said.

 

@changegonnacome

+20 million Soviets i would argue ... not just Russians

 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

And we shouldn't forget that 20 million of them that died in WWII......the bodycount far exceeding any losses by any of the Allied forces in defeating Hitler. Putin doesnt forget of course......he draws a line in history from Russia's contribution to WWII , to the fall of the Berlin wall and assurances given to Gorbachev in 1990's during German re-unification about NATO aspirations to the East...& then of course the April 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit declaration from Bush out of nowhere around Ukraine/Georgia potnetially joining NATO.........and then the invasion by Russia into Georgia a few short months later ..bit of a conincidence.........then of course the 2014 Russia Crimea invasion after further NATO saber rattling.......then of course the recent phone calls from the United States president in 2019 to the President of Ukraine telling him to investigate his US rival or the ex-Vice Presidents son sitting on the board of Ukraine largest gas company with no energy experience........I dunno its like Ukraine was getting a bit puppety on the US side, dont you think.........then you got the Feb 2022 Russian invasion.......and I guess to the uninterested outsider it seemed it like it came out of nowhere cause Putin is a "lunatic".......god forbid we might for second think about why this is happening & what to do about it in a way that strips the whole sorry affair of nonsense narratives of good guys/bad guys....democracy/autocracy.......and have a think about solutions that dial down the aggregate human misery, the death and destruction and reduce the overarching probability of total nuclear annihilation (however slight that possibility is, it can ALWAYS & should always be made lower) 

I think it is really not all that complicated to understand what is going on in Ukraine. It is a good old fashioned land grab. An old, tired and failed empire disintegrated about 30 years ago. Pretty much all countries on the periphery (about 15) have been for decades pivoting to Europe and the West and away from Russia. What is the driver? These countries feel being aligned with Europe/the West provides the best opportunity to them and their kids to have a better life. Ukraine was late to pivot away from Russia. Unfortunately for Ukraine, Russia decided it needed more land. Unfortunately for Russia, Ukraine, with the blood of its citizens, has decided to fight. Simply amazing what a taste of freedom does to people.  Something we should all remember.

—————

Russia wants to turn back the clock. The countries it wants to subjugate disagree. And they are willing to fight. Self determination is a powerful force. Not that complicated.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Viking

[Xerxes]

41 minutes ago, Viking said:

I think it is really not all that complicated to understand what is going on in Ukraine. It is a good old fashioned land grab. An old, tired and failed empire disintegrated about 30 years ago. Pretty much all countries on the periphery (about 15) have been for decades pivoting to Europe and the West and away from Russia. What is the driver? These countries feel being aligned with Europe/the West provides the best opportunity to them and their kids to have a better life. Ukraine was late to pivot away from Russia. Unfortunately for Ukraine, Russia decided it needed more land. Unfortunately for Russia, Ukraine, with the blood of its citizens, has decided to fight. Simply amazing what a taste of freedom does to people.  Something we should all remember.

—————

Russia wants to turn back the clock. The countries it wants to subjugate disagree. And they are willing to fight. Self determination is a powerful force. Not that complicated.

 

The largest country in the world does not need more land. And actually yes it is complicated.

 

What Russia needed was an empire and its buffer-states/protectorates to defend itself against military, economical and ideological threats as seen from the Moscow/St-Petersburg (with the rare exception of Peter the Great who opened toward West, most of their leaders looked inward).

 

Going back to days of Charles XII, Napoleon, Hitler & now NATO, the West always moved eastward. I bet you never seen Charles XII, Napoleon, Hitler & NATO in the same sentence. Russians do. Outrageous isn't ? Westereners may not understand that concept (yes yes yes NATO never threaten etc etc.) but that is because it is being seen from a Western centric point of view. 

 

That being said, what Putin specifically needed, even more than empire, was to destroy the what-could-have-been scenario as Ukraine became more and more Westernized & modernized while its own society degraded and stagnated. 

 

Russia is not turning the clock, because there is no clock for Russia to turn back. Just because we may have a clock in the West does not mean that they do as well. What happened in the 1990s was merely a blip, just like the October Revolution in 1917 was a blip, before its resurrgence under a different avatar: Soviet Union.

 

This documenatry is from pre-invasion, pre-Covid era. Great documentary on Russia's imperial past. The host is the same BBC gentleman that reports from Moscow today on the current conflict.

 

I would highly recommend for folks to read up on Russian history. Actual books. No blogs. No 5 min YouTube.

Do not outsource.

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

And @Viking you and others talk about self-determination and why there is a need for an empire in the 21st centuary. And i would agree with you as Westerner.

 

 But the world does not moves as fast as the West thinks it ought to or it should to.

 

Just because the Western world is done squeezing its imperial subjects in Africa and Asia with their shiny imperial boots rubbing on their subject' necks does not mean that other power have the same timeline.

 

What if you were a Mughul aristocrat or a merchant living in India few hundred years ago enjoying the good life, discussing investment thesis on Dutch East India company on message boards, you may have objected the Dutch and the British slowly but surely eroding and strangling the living light out of Mughul Empire. From your perspective, why is this happening ??? 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

I think it is really not all that complicated to understand what is going on in Ukraine. It is a good old fashioned land grab. An old, tired and failed empire disintegrated about 30 years ago. Pretty much all countries on the periphery (about 15) have been for decades pivoting to Europe and the West and away from Russia. What is the driver? These countries feel being aligned with Europe/the West provides the best opportunity to them and their kids to have a better life. Ukraine was late to pivot away from Russia. Unfortunately for Ukraine, Russia decided it needed more land. Unfortunately for Russia, Ukraine, with the blood of its citizens, has decided to fight. Simply amazing what a taste of freedom does to people.  Something we should all remember.

—————

Russia wants to turn back the clock. The countries it wants to subjugate disagree. And they are willing to fight. Self determination is a powerful force. Not that complicated.

Putin stated on several occasions that he regards Ukraine as part of Russia. He claims it is an artificial construct created by the Bolshewiks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/world/europe/putin-ukraine.html

 

No reason to overthink this. It's good old fashioned imperialism.  All his talk about NATO threat is just a pretense and is all BS. He clearly want to make Ukraine part of Russia again.

 

Why should the west or Ukraine accept narratives and red lines that Putin draws up nilly willy as he sees fit? I know about Russian history but that does not mean I accept his narratives. As far as I know, the Allied did not accept Hitler's narrative too. He saw himself in the line of Barbarossa (chosen as the campaign name for the attack against Russia) Karl the Great ,Friedrich the Great and what not. Every Dictator tries to a justify his acts based on history and lineage. they do this to justify what they are doing. Nothing special and profound about this and doesn't make it right either.

 

 

 

 

[Viking]

@Xerxes yes history tends to move in very long and slowly changing arcs. Sometimes it pivots abruptly. All empires end. The Russian/Soviet empire that Putin harkens to is dead. Where is the Austro-Hungarian empire today? Where is the Ottoman empire today? These are two of many examples of empires that lasted for hundreds of years that are no more (well they are still around… just much smaller). Now when empires die they never go quietly into the night. 
 

Putin is doing his best to channel Peter the Great. The people in Russia who support Putin are typically old - and they yearn for ‘the good old days’. The geopolitical world that existed 50 or 100 or 200 or 300 years ago no longer exists. Russia is trying to turn back the clock and live in the past. Except the countries on its borders, Europe and the world has moved on. So in trying to return to past glory (and empire) Putin is only accelerating Russia’s decline. 

[Viking]

17 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

And @Viking you and others talk about self-determination and why there is a need for an empire in the 21st centuary. And i would agree with you as Westerner.

 

 But the world does not moves as fast as the West thinks it ought to or it should to.

 

But just because the Western world is done squeezing its imperial subjects in Africa and Asia with their shiny imperial boots rubbing on their subject' necks does not mean that other power have the same timeline.

 

What if you were a Mughul aristocrat leaving in India few hundred years ago enjoying the good life, discussing investment thesis on Dutch East India company on message boards, you may have objected the Dutch and the British slowly but surely eroding and strangling the living light out of Mughul Empire. From your perspective, why is this happening ??? 

@Xerxes i appreciate the debate   With my comments on Russia i am not inferring anything about past imperialist actions of ‘Western’ nations. I have said numerous times that what the US/West did in Iraq was a catastrophe. The world is an imperfect place. 

[Xerxes]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Why should the west or Ukraine accept narratives and red lines that Putin draws up nilly willy as he sees fit? I know about Russian history but that does not mean I accept his narratives. As far as I know, the Allied did not accept Hitler's narrative too. He saw himself in the line of Barbarossa (chosen as the campaign name for the attack against Russia) Karl the Great ,Friedrich the Great and what not. Every Dictator tries to a justify his acts based on history and lineage. they do this to justify what they are doing. Nothing special and profound about this and doesn't make it right either.

 

You should not. I dont think anyone here agrees with those narratives, but it does not change the fact that there is a Kremlin point of view in all this. Perhaps, half false, half correct, but it is there.

 

[Xerxes]

8 minutes ago, Viking said:

@Xerxes yes history tends to move in very long and slowly changing arcs. Sometimes it pivots abruptly. All empires end. The Russian/Soviet empire that Putin harkens to is dead. Where is the Austro-Hungarian empire today? Where is the Ottoman empire today? These are two of many examples of empires that lasted for hundreds of years that are no more (well they are still around… just much smaller). Now when empires die they never go quietly into the night. 
 

Putin is doing his best to channel Peter the Great. The people in Russia who support Putin are typically old - and they yearn for ‘the good old days’. The geopolitical world that existed 50 or 100 or 200 or 300 years ago no longer exists. Russia is trying to turn back the clock and live in the past. Except the countries on its borders, Europe and the world has moved on. So in trying to return to past glory (and empire) Putin is only accelerating Russia’s decline. 

 

Thanks for the reponse.

Putin is no Peter the Great though, despite what he says. The latter pulled Russia out of medievalism and opened it to the West and pulled forward kicking and screaming.

 

The Ottoman empire lasted for 800 years (pretty long if you ask me) if I were to go to its origin of House of Osman. It was in fact suppose to end much sooner than it did was it not for the rivalery between Western powers and Russia that perserve it not create a vaccum of power for Russia to step in. Ottomans are actually a good analogy to Russia as they sat as overlords over their dominions with no notion of such thing as "Turkey proper". The Turkish nationhood came after.

 

The Austro-Hungarian empire is not a good example. That multi-facet empire was not going to have a long life anyways. It died soon after childbirth. The Habsburg did though last for a very long time, just not in their last incarnation.

 

[Xerxes]

Meet the new intelligent officer of the Red Army

 

Edward Snowden granted Russian citizenship - BBC News 

[Spekulatius]

Another thing I learned when listening to a long form documentary about the energy crisis. it is astonishing to which extend Russia had impact on the the European energy infrastructure and part of the info is new to me. I knew that Russia owned pipelines to Europe, refineries but I didn't know they even owned the strategic gas storage facilities.

 

There actually were experts sounding alarms in Europe that Russia was sending less NG to Europe as early as spring 2021. What this meant is that the NG storage was relatively low in 2021 and of course in early 2022 when the invasion got started.

 

The likely conclusion is that Russia laid the groundwork for the offensive probably as early as 2020/21 and started to reduce the European gas storage via lower flows while European politicians were asleep at the wheel. That was obviously done to put the screws on Europe once the military actions was getting started to counter sanctions.

 

On another note, the offensive in the East doesn't seem to be done yet. It looks like the Ukraine has achieved another breakthrough east of Izium. That one could end up as an encirclement of sizable amount of Russian troops in Lyman.

 

It's slower moving than the Blitz from Kharkiv  2 weeks ago, but seems to gaining traction, especially if Ukraine can gain ground from the Southern direction near Swerdonesk as well.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

16 hours ago, Dinar said:

The moment the West stops supplying weapons and money, Ukraine loses the war, so the West has leverage.

 

No doubt. Russia does not have the resources that the US & Europe can provide for motivated fighters like Ukraine. This will get more and more costly for Russia. It took them 10 years to pacify Chechnya - Ukraine is vastly larger. This can go on forever with Western aid.

 

Then nukes come into the conversation. NO ONE knows what Putin will do.

[Castanza]

35 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Putin stated on several occasions that he regards Ukraine as part of Russia. He claims it is an artificial construct created by the Bolshewiks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/world/europe/putin-ukraine.html

 

No reason to overthink this. It's good old fashioned imperialism.  All his talk about NATO threat is just a pretense and is all BS. He clearly want to make Ukraine part of Russia again.

 

Why should the west or Ukraine accept narratives and red lines that Putin draws up nilly willy as he sees fit? 

 

Lines are not accepted, they're defended and then tolerated. Ukraine has no more right to exist than Russia. If you want that "right" you secure it. If you don't like your country you leave or rise up and overthrow it. All of history boils down to that. Conquer or be conquered, govern or be governed, enslave or be enslaved.

 

Ukraine gave up it's nukes and Russia is trying to capitalize on that. 

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

 

Ukraine gave up it's nukes and Russia is trying to capitalize on that. 

 

Yup - clearly a strategic risk that backfired big time.

 

The US could have help immensely by sending more than blankets & MRE's when 

Ukraine asked.  Too afraid to insult and appease a dictator.  Europe compounds their

own mistakes by listening to the green crowd idiots and putting their future in

the hands of Russia's energy supply. Governments never seem to learn from history.

[Castanza]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Yup - clearly a strategic risk that backfired big time.

 

The US could have help immensely by sending more than blankets & MRE's when 

Ukraine asked.  Too afraid to insult and appease a dictator.  Europe compounds their

own mistakes by listening to the green crowd idiots and putting their future in

the hands of Russia's energy supply. Governments never seem to learn from history.

 

EU in general dropped the ball. Ukraine is the only ground force large enough to actually defend against an attack. Luckily they have been getting us training since the mid 2000's. 

 

I'm not a fan of the lack of oversight there is on US funding. So far it's estimated that only 30% of money given to Ukraine by the US has actually been put towards the war effort. The other 70%? Poof

 

My question is, how long can the west afford to fund this? Germany, Poland, France, Spain, Finland,  etc. all need to step up. All of these nations have been getting training from the US for the past two decades. Time to put that to work. Again, I'm not against US support. But I don't like the lack of oversight.

 

The US has plenty of problems right here at home and handing out money without any oversight can't go on forever. 

 

 

[cubsfan]

^^^ I'd agree - the Europeans need to continue to take a lot of the lead here. But weapons

like shoulder fired missiles were always available to Ukraine, but denied by Obama, which

was idiotic. 

 

And, yes,  Ukrainian corruption has always made this more complicated.

[changegonnacome]

43 minutes ago, Castanza said:

So far it's estimated that only 30% of money given to Ukraine by the US has actually been put towards the war effort. The other 70%? Poof

 

 

DXY strength = Ukraine proxy war with Russia's price just went down. Jay Powell is a war hero.

 

There is shit load of people getting filthy rich of this war in Ukraine.....they wont want it to ever stop.

 

Everybody wants it to be good guys versus the bad guys.......Ukraine is a questionable emerging democracy with severe corruption problems........only such a place would allow speed ball coked up son of a former US VP on to the board of  their largest company.

 

Get both Russia and Ukraine to table ASAP.....get them both some kind of PR win.......about 300 million people globally are about to experience food insecurity because energy prices, potash & grain issues.....what above those people.

 

I'll make a prediction - if Russia dropped a tactical nuke in Ukraine........the West will do absolutely nothing.......how do I know......cause to date not a single drop of Western blood has been spilled in the soil in Ukraine and not a drop will be. We dont care enough.....you know who does care........Putin.....thousands of Russians have tied