Russia-Ukrainian War

[shhughes1116]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

That didn't take long. Snake Island becomes indefensible for the Russians with the delivery of some HIMARS rocket system. Snake island is about 60 km away from the Ukraine mainland and these rocket systems go for 70km (the longer range version goes 200km. game over for the Russians on Snake Island. Not a huge win right now, but is important to keep Odessa from staying blocked longer term potentially.

 

https://www.npr.org/2022/06/30/1108855805/russia-withdraws-snake-island-ukraine

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-long-range-rocket-systems-arrive-ukraine-minister-2022-06-23/

 

If we give the Ukraine rocket weapons systems that go somewhat further (~300km) then Russia can not safely move ships into Sebastopol harbor any more (distance  from Sebastopol harbor to Ukraine mainland is ~280km). At that point, Crimea and Sebastopol would become more or less strategically worthless as a naval base during war times.

 

Russia has been firing nilly willy with rocket bases from Crimea and with their Ships on the Ukraine mainland and that cannot be allowed forever.

I don’t think the US will provide Ukraine with the ATACMS.
 

But I think this might be used as leverage over Russia to unblock the Black Sea.  “We will unblock Kaliningrad, and you will unblock the Black Sea and let Ukrainian ships sortie out of Odessa with grain.  Otherwise, we will give Ukraine enough ATACMS to wipe Sevastopol off the face of the Earth.”

 

i think the entire reason train and vehicular traffic to Kaliningrad was restricted was in order to create a bargaining chip for Ukraine.  Kaliningrad and Sevastopol are Russia’s only two deep water naval ports that are ice free all year.  If Kaliningrad is blocked by land, and inbound naval traffic can’t reach Sevastopol via the Bosphorous Strait, Russia has big problems with their fleet at sea for almost 50% of the year.   

[shhughes1116]

2 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

I don’t think the US will provide Ukraine with the ATACMS.
 

But I think this might be used as leverage over Russia to unblock the Black Sea.  “We will unblock Kaliningrad, and you will unblock the Black Sea and let Ukrainian ships sortie out of Odessa with grain.  Otherwise, we will give Ukraine enough ATACMS to wipe Sevastopol off the face of the Earth.”

 

i think the entire reason train and vehicular traffic to Kaliningrad was restricted was in order to create a bargaining chip for Ukraine.  Kaliningrad and Sevastopol are Russia’s only two deep water naval ports that are ice free all year.  If Kaliningrad is blocked by land, and inbound naval traffic can’t reach Sevastopol via the Bosphorous Strait, Russia has big problems with their fleet at sea for almost 50% of the year.   

One other point here.  They don’t need ATACMS.  They are about to get a bunch of 40ft patrol boats from the US.  I’ll bet they mount Brinstone Missiles on the back of those boats, just as they did with small trucks.  Not as lethal as a Harpoon, but likely painful enough to keep Russian boats in or near Sevastopol.  And hitting a surfaced submarine would be lethal for the sub. 

[Spekulatius]

12 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

One other point here.  They don’t need ATACMS.  They are about to get a bunch of 40ft patrol boats from the US.  I’ll bet they mount Brinstone Missiles on the back of those boats, just as they did with small trucks.  Not as lethal as a Harpoon, but likely painful enough to keep Russian boats in or near Sevastopol.  And hitting a surfaced submarine would be lethal for the sub. 

You could be correct. I do think it's huge strategic value to unblock Odessa harbor and there are various means to do so.

[Spekulatius]

On 6/30/2022 at 4:05 PM, Spekulatius said:

You could be correct. I do think it's huge strategic value to unblock Odessa harbor and there are various means to do so.

That Odd lots shows a solution:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000568476294
 

The US/NATO navy would escort freights ships through international waters  like thry did in the late 80‘s in the Street of Hormuz during the tanker wars.

 

I think digits the Ukrainians some longer range rockets (which fit on the rocket launchers deliver to Ukraine I think) would make a lot sense. 300km Range gets from thr Ukrainian coast line to Sebastopol. Destroying some Russian warships right in Sebastopols harbor (if possible) would would be nice victory and likely chase them away where they can’t threaten the shipping routes to begin with. Just taking  Putins toys away or make them worthless has a huge strategic value, Imo. It also makes breaking the blockade of Odessa harbor much easier.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

The good admiral Starvidis has been making the rounds in the media on this idea. I think I heard it on Bloomberg Surveillance last week where he is a regular. 
 

what stops the Russian from totally destroying the grain siloes and farm lands & achieving the same objective as blockade etc.

 

Turkey needs to be onboard and allow passage through the straight. 

[Spekulatius]

15 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

The good admiral Starvidis has been making the rounds in the media on this idea. I think I heard it on Bloomberg Surveillance last week where he is a regular. 
 

what stops the Russian from totally destroying the grain siloes and farm lands & achieving the same objective as blockade etc.

 

Turkey needs to be onboard and allow passage through the straight. 

Turkey is a NATO ally. As for the Russians destroying grain silos and harbor infrastructure, I think Odessa has a reasonable air defense and it also takes quite a few rockets to do enough damage. It’s not like hitting a fuel tank that is going to explode. The Russians have been using their cruise missiles fairly sparingly indicating that don’t have that many to spare.

 

In addition, the 300km medium range Rockets would bring most of their Rocket bases on the Crimea within reach, so the Ukrainians could pot. wipe them out. Others were fired of from ships ( they got about 40 ships left in the Black sea), so if we can get rid of those by chasing them away from Sebastopol , then they are not a factor either.

 

Russia has some longer range stuff, but they are even more expensive and probably low on those as well.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

Quick read on the Russian command & control plane. Similar to the NightWatch in the U.S.A.F.

 

I believe the reason why the Doomsday plane was absent in the May Parade in 2022 was meant to be a signal to help the rules of engagement.
 

 

[Spekulatius]

@Xerxes The part obout the  theft of electronic components in Taganrok is pretty hilarious.

[aws]

7 hours ago, Xerxes said:

The good admiral Starvidis has been making the rounds in the media on this idea. I think I heard it on Bloomberg Surveillance last week where he is a regular. 
 

what stops the Russian from totally destroying the grain siloes and farm lands & achieving the same objective as blockade etc.

 

Turkey needs to be onboard and allow passage through the straight. 

 

Russia at least maintains some plausible deniability when they say something like "We have no problem with grain exports, but the Ukrainians will need to demine their harbors in order to allow commercial ships to enter". Then they can say that it is Ukraine causing the lack of grain exports. Ukraine obviously cannot trust any Russian statements that they will not exploit any removal of defenses, so there is a standstill until an external security guarantee is made. If Russia's bluff is called and such a guarantee is made, and then Russia turns around and starts destroying grain deliberately, it gets a lot harder to maintain their narrative and their goal of winning allies in the third world.

 

But with an unwillingness to impose a no-fly zone, it seems unlikely there will be a naval version in time for it to really matter. If they're already harvesting grain and it has nowhere to go, then it's probably too late for any type of good solution to the problem, and Russia will win battles in their wars for world hunger and PR.

[no_free_lunch]

Aws, I see your point but I don't think narratives matter.  To countries outside of Europe, why would they care, they don't.  They just want cheap food.  They will continue to transact with whoever can get them the best price.  If they don't care then we shouldn't care about these countries either.  Clearly not our allies.  Let's just sell our food for max dollar and make the best of this messed up situation.

[Spekulatius]

No fly zone does apply to the Ukraine but not international waters, where this plays put. The US can sent warships to protect convoys in international waters and warplanes as well.

 

Even if we don‘t care  about other countries , we care about Ukraine. Grain exports are a large part of their economy, which Putin want to wreck. We should not allow him to do that.

 

Still think we should give Ukraine  enough rockets to soften up Crimea and Sebastopol ahead of this but priorities are probably elsewhere right now.

[mcliu]

https://www.france24.com/en/video/20220704-ukraine-withdraws-from-battered-lysychansk-russia-claims-major-victory

 

 

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraines-envoy-to-germany-irks-israeli-polish-governments-with-wwii-comments/a-62335288

 

Andriy Melnyk,Ukraine's outspoken ambassador to Germany, drew the ire of Poland, Israel, and Jewish groups on Friday when he defended Ukrainian nationalist leader Stepan Bandera in an interview.

...

"The statement made by the Ukrainian ambassador is a distortion of the historical facts, belittles the Holocaust and is an insult to those who were murdered by Bandera and his people," the Israeli embassy said.

Polish deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz wrote on a local online platform that "such an opinion and such words are absolutely unacceptable."

 

https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/why-is-a-monument-commemorating-a-nazi-ss-division-still-standing-outside-of-toronto

The ‘Banderists’ in particular saw Jews as the “vanguard of Muscovite imperialism,” and were openly willing to commit barbarous crimes against them, as they believed it would lead to Ukraine’s independence from Russia and the Soviet Union. In 1941, under the OUN-B’s command, the Ukrainian People’s Militia spearheaded pogroms which led to the massacre of more than 6,000 Jews in Lviv.

[Xerxes]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@Xerxes The part obout the  theft of electronic components in Taganrok is pretty hilarious.

yeah. And I thought Middle East was bad with corruption. 

[changegonnacome]

4.......nearly 5 months into this and the "peace deal" on the table in February.......is effectively the off ramp where this conflict ends up in the end.....I havent heard a credible alternative. This is:

 

(1) Ukrainian commitment to neutrality / No NATO membership

(2) Minsk-esque agreement for Eastern Ukraine/contested territories

 

Difference now however is that it's a proxy war between the US & Russia...with all those dynamics......and the US (aligned with the Ukrainian right, not Zelensky) will decide when & what the optics of victory for the US political players 'make sense'.......for an embattled UK Prime Minister Ukraine & Zelensky is a positive PR story he wheels out to try and save his administration, for the embattled US president its one place he can appear Presidential while domestically his presidency falls apart. In the process Ukraine gets increasingly destroyed such that whats left will be husk & millions globally are likely to go hungry due to grain shortages. Its time for a shitload of pragmatism in regards to this situation and a concerted effort at 'peace talks'. Suspect there is no interest in this now until after November. 

[aws]

Couldn't possibly disagree more with that cynical take. Ukraine is fighting for their lives and sovereignty against an invader that doesn't acknowledge their right to exist. They aren't fighting to help the democrats win the midterms.

 

Putin has shown his cards, that he thinks he's Peter the Great and will reclaim the former empire. Russia's pretext for the invasion was a lie, and any concessions given to them to stop the fighting just strengthen Russia's position in the future when they will make up some new excuse to expand further.

[Spekulatius]

I am with @awshere. If you study even tiny bit of history, you will see that the likely hood of solving this situation with a peace deal coming from a position of weakness is very low.

 

My thinking is that we are at war with Russia and the sooner we acknowledge the fact the better. It’s the Ukrainian that are fighting for us (and themselves ) so we don’t have to. If we supply them with the weapons to make a stand and even push the Russians back, it will be a crushing defeat for Putin.

If not and Ukraine is lost , we better get ready for another fight somewhere else where we don’t have others to fight for us.
There is now a new iron curtain going up in Europe again and elsewhere that will remain in place  and determine geopolitics for a long time - think a decade rather than a year.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

16 hours ago, aws said:

Couldn't possibly disagree more with that cynical take. Ukraine is fighting for their lives and sovereignty against an invader that doesn't acknowledge their right to exist. They aren't fighting to help the democrats win the midterms.

 

Putin has shown his cards, that he thinks he's Peter the Great and will reclaim the former empire. Russia's pretext for the invasion was a lie, and any concessions given to them to stop the fighting just strengthen Russia's position in the future when they will make up some new excuse to expand further.

Awesome - yup...

 

[shhughes1116]

17 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

4.......nearly 5 months into this and the "peace deal" on the table in February.......is effectively the off ramp where this conflict ends up in the end.....I havent heard a credible alternative. This is:

 

(1) Ukrainian commitment to neutrality / No NATO membership

(2) Minsk-esque agreement for Eastern Ukraine/contested territories

 

Difference now however is that it's a proxy war between the US & Russia...with all those dynamics......and the US (aligned with the Ukrainian right, not Zelensky) will decide when & what the optics of victory for the US political players 'make sense'.......for an embattled UK Prime Minister Ukraine & Zelensky is a positive PR story he wheels out to try and save his administration, for the embattled US president its one place he can appear Presidential while domestically his presidency falls apart. In the process Ukraine gets increasingly destroyed such that whats left will be husk & millions globally are likely to go hungry due to grain shortages. Its time for a shitload of pragmatism in regards to this situation and a concerted effort at 'peace talks'. Suspect there is no interest in this now until after November. 

Boris?  Boris, is that you tweeting from the troll farm in the Urals?

 

kidding aside, your take on this fails to recognize that Putin isn’t interested in negotiation or peace, and never was.  For him, cease fires and peace deals are a time for Russian military forces to regroup, rearm, and prepare for the next military action.  

Three ways this ends:

1. Ukraine ceases to exist;

2. Russian army defeated in the field.

3. Putin dies.

 

#1 will lead to subsequent invasion of Baltic countries. 
 

#2 will lead to #3.

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

^^^^ We can only hope for 2 & 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Something between 1) and 2) could very well happen. Nobody wins outright and this goes into a Cold War with flare ups. We should be prepared for the long haul - a conflict that last years with lower intensity.

[CGJB]

On 7/7/2022 at 12:47 AM, changegonnacome said:

4.......nearly 5 months into this and the "peace deal" on the table in February.......is effectively the off ramp where this conflict ends up in the end.....I havent heard a credible alternative. This is:

 

(1) Ukrainian commitment to neutrality / No NATO membership

(2) Minsk-esque agreement for Eastern Ukraine/contested territories

 

Difference now however is that it's a proxy war between the US & Russia...with all those dynamics......and the US (aligned with the Ukrainian right, not Zelensky) will decide when & what the optics of victory for the US political players 'make sense'.......for an embattled UK Prime Minister Ukraine & Zelensky is a positive PR story he wheels out to try and save his administration, for the embattled US president its one place he can appear Presidential while domestically his presidency falls apart. In the process Ukraine gets increasingly destroyed such that whats left will be husk & millions globally are likely to go hungry due to grain shortages. Its time for a shitload of pragmatism in regards to this situation and a concerted effort at 'peace talks'. Suspect there is no interest in this now until after November. 

 

I agree with this take. Well said.

[Castanza]

On 7/7/2022 at 1:17 AM, aws said:

Couldn't possibly disagree more with that cynical take. Ukraine is fighting for their lives and sovereignty against an invader that doesn't acknowledge their right to exist. They aren't fighting to help the democrats win the midterms.

 

Putin has shown his cards, that he thinks he's Peter the Great and will reclaim the former empire. Russia's pretext for the invasion was a lie, and any concessions given to them to stop the fighting just strengthen Russia's position in the future when they will make up some new excuse to expand further.

 

Does any nation truly have a "right" to exist? You either choose to exist and defend it through strength of arms or you get conquered. That is history. 

 

On 7/7/2022 at 7:20 AM, Spekulatius said:

I am with @awshere. If you study even tiny bit of history, you will see that the likely hood of solving this situation with a peace deal coming from a position of weakness is very low.

 

My thinking is that we are at war with Russia and the sooner we acknowledge the fact the better. It’s the Ukrainian that are fighting for us (and themselves ) so we don’t have to. If we supply them with the weapons to make a stand and even push the Russians back, it will be a crushing defeat for Putin.

If not and Ukraine is lost , we better get ready for another fight somewhere else where we don’t have others to fight for us.
There is now a new iron curtain going up in Europe again and elsewhere that will remain in place  and determine geopolitics for a long time - think a decade rather than a year.

 

Why does the US need to take the lead on this? Ukraine is not a NATO country. EU needs to step up...otherwise what's the point of the EU?

 

Anyone concerned with the lack of oversight regarding funding? This is going to get expensive for the US. Ukraine now announcing that 750 Billion is required to rebuild....

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

 

Does any nation truly have a "right" to exist? You either choose to exist and defend it through strength of arms or you get conquered. That is history. 

 

 

Why does the US need to take the lead on this? Ukraine is not a NATO country. EU needs to step up...otherwise what's the point of the EU?

 

Anyone concerned with the lack of oversight regarding funding? This is going to get expensive for the US. Ukraine now announcing that 750 Billion is required to rebuild....

Ukraine is not part of the EU either. The EU has delivered weapons to the Ukraine as well as monetary aid. They are also taking in millions of refuges - the US does very little on that end.

 

Lots of countries are contributing to the effort - not just the US.

 

The money spent here is well spent, imo.  If Putin wins here (whatever that means) he is going for another adventure and it's going to get more expensive and will cost American lives to stop him.

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

At worse and if for nothing else, Ukraine needs to be supported for no other selfish reasons than bleeding Russia. Like it or not we are at war. 
 

At best, securing a current & future ally against their struggle and doing the right thing. I won’t comment on NATO flip flop which is now history. Water under the bridge. 
 

but I disagree with comments about Putin being made around here. How many of you would have made the same comment about an angry & mad Lyndon Johnson or Richard Nixon as seen from a Vietnamese point of view, who were being pounded into dust.  
 

so is it really about right and wrong for you, or just a matter of who is the current geopolitical enemy. Happily in 2020 that happens to be Russia, so we are aligned. 
 

but in which direction your personal moral compass would be pointing if we lived in a different age. 

[Castanza]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Ukraine is not part of the EU either. The EU has delivered weapons to the Ukraine as well as monetary aid. They are also taking in millions of refuges - the US does very little on that end.

 

Lots of countries are contributing to the effort - not just the US.

 

The money spent here is well spent, imo.  If Putin wins here (whatever that means) he is going for another adventure and it's going to get more expensive and will cost American lives to stop him.

 

That doesn’t answer the question as to why the US is taking the lead. At the end of all this who do you think will incur the majority of the cost? People have been war weary in the states for well over a decade and have been very critical of military spending. Now all of a sudden that stance goes out the window? The US is pricing itself out future power by constantly expending itself and footing the bill. We have enough problems back home to deal with. When you try to apply morality to geo politics you end up with situations like Vietnam, Kosovo, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq. NATO went from being a defensive tool to an offensive regime changing tool and it has failed miserably. NATO is what lead to this entire situation. 
 

If Russia takes Ukraine what changes? I’m skeptical of the view that Russia would push any further. Disregarding their ability to even do so, where would they go and why? 
 

I would rather the US take in the refuges than fork over billions of dollars with zero oversight to a nation with very corrupt politics. 
 

Our current involvement is possibly going to drag us into a land war. Very few militaries including ours is prepared for a land war. Ukraine was one of the largest armies in Europe equipped to fight a land war. While the US and other nations have been perfecting small unit tactics, Russia has been practicing and focusing on large scale land warfare. People are not giving them credit where credit is due. Look at the US in 03. Logistics were a mess and we barely took on an already weak Iraq army. 

From my layman perspective it seems like we are spending a lot of money now and future by prolonging the inevitable. What we’re doing now is simply destroying more infrastructure and ultimately draining resources. 
 

I think negotiation should be top priority