Russia-Ukrainian War

[Luca]

And what will the West do then? WW3? 

 

Maybe consider diplomacy instead of increasing hostilities and fronts!

 

Cheers! 

Edited May 30 by Luca

[cubsfan]

Of course Europe or the US do not want a war with Russia.  Do you think the Russians want a war with them? A war certainly, that Russia can not win?

 

You are seeing the red line being drawn by the Europeans - which should comfort Poland, and the Baltic States. Europe knows exactly what they are doing.

 

Diplomacy is wise - unfortunately for Ukraine, it will cost them the eastern half of their country, but save millions of lives they can not afford to lose. But the cost must be high for Russia as well. A united Europe will see to that.

[Luca]

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Of course Europe or the US do not want a war with Russia.  Do you think the Russians want a war with them? A war certainly, that Russia can not win?

A hot war between nuclear powers will be the end and I don't see enough efforts to prevent this.

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You are seeing the red line being drawn by the Europeans - which should comfort Poland, and the Baltic States. Europe knows exactly what they are doing.

Well, the line moved already and there are more deaths ahead. If you give Ukraine too much potential to hurt Russia they will just use more and more severe attacks, hitting critical infrastructure or at last resort, use tactical nuclear bombs to arrange their security. Ukraine CANT win. 

 

Just released from austrian military: https://www.bundesheer.at/aktuelles/detail/drei-fragen-zum-angriff-auf-das-russische-atomraketen-fruehwarnsystem-oberst-reisner-antwortet

 

"If this is indeed the case, two further conclusions can be drawn: first, the situation in Ukraine is extremely serious and second, the war over Ukraine has escalated again. It now remains to be seen how or if Russia will respond to this attack on its nuclear deterrence capability. The Russian early warning detection system is part of the country's nuclear deterrence strategy. The attack on Armavir could fulfill the conditions that Russia publicly set out in 2020 for adversary attacks that could trigger a nuclear retaliation strike. In addition, possible cooperation between Russia and its close allies in the space has been limited, to the benefit of close US partners."

 

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Diplomacy is wise - unfortunately for Ukraine, it will cost them the eastern half of their country, but save millions of lives they can not afford to lose. But the cost must be high for Russia as well. A united Europe will see to that.

Putin won't knock at Europe door no matter how much the media wants us to believe that to justify further escalation. He even seemed to be willing to let the rest of Ukraine join Europe as long as security assurances were given. This war can be ended right now, lives can be saved, the sanctions can be lifted, we can work on mutual diplomacy with russia and china and develop this world in peace. 

[ValueArb]

34 minutes ago, Luca said:

@ValueArb is probably ready to spend hundreds of billions more and push for deploying Nato/US troops and go for total war against Russia (and probably China too), which the US can do if they want (I hope @ValueArb will fight too)! 

 

Some larger german politicians are already pushing for nato troop deployment...

You know I’m exactly right about Putin so you dodge, deflect and change the topic.

[Luca]

Just now, ValueArb said:

You know I’m exactly right about Putin so you dodge, deflect and change the topic.

No, I do not think you are exactly right about him and I have laid out my view on this situation in this thread already  

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, Luca said:

 

Putin won't knock at Europe door no matter how much the media wants us to believe that to justify further escalation.

 

You have absolutely no idea what is going on in Putin's head. None.

 

Same mistake President Obama made with his "reset button".

"Hey Vlad, give me a little space on this next election, and I'll kill the missile projects"

 

After his very generous concession, Putin took Crimea and then the rest. Fools trust Putin.

[Luca]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

You have absolutely no idea what is going on in Putin's head. None.

 

Same mistake President Obama made with his "reset button".

"Hey Vlad, give me a little space on this next election, and I'll kill the missile projects"

 

After his very generous concession, Putin took Crimea and then the rest. Fools trust Putin.

He certainly isn't planning to knock at Natos door  

[Libs]

50 minutes ago, Luca said:

He certainly isn't planning to knock at Natos door  

 

That's exactly what he might do. As described upthread..... a small incursion into  a remote part of a NATO country. A test of NATO'S resolve. Will Germany risk nuclear war over such a small event? We will find out. It will be very tempting to do nothing. And thus NATO's credibility is shot. The result will not be good.

 

It might be 1938 again.

 

 

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

No, I do not think you are exactly right about him and I have laid out my view on this situation in this thread already  

 

Then why the deflection and attempt to poison the well by accusing me of positions I don't hold?

[Xerxes]

 
Technically speaking both sides are and will be poking holes and see what they can do. And far they can go.  

NATO’ member sovereignty has been breached so many times, and Russia’ national interest has been ignored so many times, that there is enough juice to drop the charade and engage in full scale war.  

But neither sides want that.
So we go on with the charade, and dance the dance. 
 

That is very different than in the late 1930s. and I understand the attraction to keep bringing up Munich for the narrative. However back then Western leaders were just hoping that Herr Hitler would see reason. 
 

There are no such delusions today about Kremlin’ ambitions to torpedo the post-1945 world order. All it takes is a Russian victory in the war and all credibility is lost.
 

The remedy to that however is even worse. Fund and arm Ukraine until they can eject 200,000 troops from their soil. 

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

A hot war between nuclear powers will be the end and I don't see enough efforts to prevent this.

Well, the line moved already and there are more deaths ahead. If you give Ukraine too much potential to hurt Russia they will just use more and more severe attacks, hitting critical infrastructure or at last resort, use tactical nuclear bombs to arrange their security. Ukraine CANT win. 

 

Just released from austrian military: https://www.bundesheer.at/aktuelles/detail/drei-fragen-zum-angriff-auf-das-russische-atomraketen-fruehwarnsystem-oberst-reisner-antwortet

 

"If this is indeed the case, two further conclusions can be drawn: first, the situation in Ukraine is extremely serious and second, the war over Ukraine has escalated again. It now remains to be seen how or if Russia will respond to this attack on its nuclear deterrence capability. The Russian early warning detection system is part of the country's nuclear deterrence strategy. The attack on Armavir could fulfill the conditions that Russia publicly set out in 2020 for adversary attacks that could trigger a nuclear retaliation strike. In addition, possible cooperation between Russia and its close allies in the space has been limited, to the benefit of close US partners."

 

The classic Russian threat to escalate to nukes has been repeated over and over ad nauseum for decades. They've threatened it when the US started aiding Ukraine, when US decided to send HIMARS, when US decided to send ATACMS, when discussion of sending F-16s became public, etc, etc, etc. 

 

The Kremlin isn't going to do it for two reasons

1) They and their families will get incinerated.

2) They don't know how many of their nukes even work anymore.

 

Al most every Russian sub missile test for decades has had failures. Its not likely getting any better with Putin's team of kleptocrats having their fingers deep in the military budgets. And their ABM systems are far worse than the Wests. 

 

1 hour ago, Luca said:

 

Putin won't knock at Europe door no matter how much the media wants us to believe that to justify further escalation. He even seemed to be willing to let the rest of Ukraine join Europe as long as security assurances were given. This war can be ended right now, lives can be saved, the sanctions can be lifted, we can work on mutual diplomacy with russia and china and develop this world in peace. 

 

No one should believe Putin. He's a proven liar who only wants "peace" to rebuild before re-invading. He'll never give they type of assurances that we can trust, so the only way to end the war is to eject Russia from Ukraine and Crimea.

[Luca]

10 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Then why the deflection and attempt to poison the well by accusing me of positions I don't hold?

I am not deflecting, I have made my position clear already before in this thread, and weren't you drumming for Ukraine to continue this war and deliver more and heavier weapons? How far are you willing to go, personally? 

[Luca]

11 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

The classic Russian threat to escalate to nukes has been repeated over and over ad nauseum for decades. They've threatened it when the US started aiding Ukraine, when US decided to send HIMARS, when US decided to send ATACMS, when discussion of sending F-16s became public, etc, etc, etc. 

 

The Kremlin isn't going to do it for two reasons

1) They and their families will get incinerated.

2) They don't know how many of their nukes even work anymore.

 

Al most every Russian sub missile test for decades has had failures. Its not likely getting any better with Putin's team of kleptocrats having their fingers deep in the military budgets. And their ABM systems are far worse than the Wests. 

 

 

No one should believe Putin. He's a proven liar who only wants "peace" to rebuild before re-invading. He'll never give they type of assurances that we can trust, so the only way to end the war is to eject Russia from Ukraine and Crimea.

Sorry, but you don't know how functional their nuclear capabilities are and I think they are very likely to work. Using tactical nukes for strategically important Ukrainian positions won't burn their families but cause huge damage and they play a significant role in this war.  

 

No one should believe anyone, not even NATO...fact is, Putin is willing to negotiate and with the right assurances peace is reachable (on which you disagree). 

 

My predictions: 

 

1. Ukraine will further lose men daily and Russia will accelerate the damage behind the front. 

2. Ukraine will eventually face a dead end due to a lack of men and crumbling infrastructure. 

3. If the West allows Ukraine to attack Russian soil, Russia will intensify the damage to Ukraine to assure its security. 

4. Tactical Nuclear bombs will be used IF Ukraine poses a significant threat to Russian sovereignty

5. Ukraine will lose except if the west joins the war actively.

6. We will then have WW3. 

7. If the West doesn't join, Ukraine will lose and the country will become an empty battlefield zone over time and the government will slowly collapse. Ukraine will become a wasteland. 

 

Sacrificing regions and joining a realistic peace treaty is by far the best option to take for Ukraine and for us. We will know how this war turns out in a couple of years and I am willing to change my mind if things change! 

 

Edited May 30 by Luca

[ValueArb]

44 minutes ago, Libs said:

 

That's exactly what he might do. As described upthread..... a small incursion into  a remote part of a NATO country. A test of NATO'S resolve. Will Germany risk nuclear war over such a small event? We will find out. It will be very tempting to do nothing. And thus NATO's credibility is shot. The result will not be good.

 

It might be 1938 again.

 

 

 

I wouldn't worry much. Any Russian incursion would be in Poland, and would end with Polish troops in Moscow within a month. 

 

Poland has purchased 32 F-35s, 48 F-16s, 48 Patriot batteries, 18 HIMARS launchers, 45 ATACMS launchers, nearly 400 Abrams tanks, 96 Apache helicopters, and 800 JASSM-ER cruise missiles, etc, etc. The Polish military is far stronger than Ukraine's was at the start of the war, with far more modern weapons than Ukraine has even today. 

 

Poland also has a deep institutional memory of the numerous historical genocides Russia inflicted upon them, and its well trained troops can't wait to run through the outdated, poorly lead Russian military like a hot knife through butter.

[Luca]

1 hour ago, Libs said:

That's exactly what he might do. As described upthread..... a small incursion into  a remote part of a NATO country. A test of NATO'S resolve. Will Germany risk nuclear war over such a small event? We will find out. It will be very tempting to do nothing. And thus NATO's credibility is shot. The result will not be good.

 

It might be 1938 again.

 

 

He has absolutely 0 interest in doing that. What would the benefit for him be in doing this? He wants germany as a good buyer of their resources, stability and supplying industrial goods to them back. That job china filled in now   

Edited May 30 by Luca

[ValueArb]

17 minutes ago, Luca said:

I am not deflecting, I have made my position clear already before in this thread, and weren't you drumming for Ukraine to continue this war and deliver more and heavier weapons? How far are you willing to go, personally? 

 

I've said we have at least a thousand Abrams and Bradleys and hundreds of F-16s in long term storage we should be providing Ukraine, along with more ATACMS with unitary warheads for deep strikes. Never did I say we need to send in NATO troops, which was your attempt to poison the well. 

[ValueArb]

14 minutes ago, Luca said:

Sorry, but you don't know how functional their nuclear capabilities are and I think they are very likely to work. Using tactical nukes for strategically important Ukrainian positions won't burn their families but cause huge damage and they play a significant role in this war.  

 

No one should believe anyone, not even NATO...fact is, Putin is willing to negotiate and with the right assurances peace is reachable (on which you disagree). 

 

My predictions: 

 

1. Ukraine will further lose men daily and Russia will accelerate the damage behind the front. 

2. Ukraine will eventually face a dead end due to a lack of men and crumbling infrastructure. 

 

Ukraine doesn't conscript anyone under the age of 25, it may not have as many troops as it would like but its not going to run out for years. It will just keep lowering the conscription age (it was 27 until recently). 

 

14 minutes ago, Luca said:

3. If the West allows Ukraine to attack Russian soil, Russia will intensify the damage to Ukraine to assure its security. 

4. Tactical Nuclear bombs will be used IF Ukraine poses a significant threat to Russian sovereignty

 

Nope. Russia knows they'll be subject to far more long range strikes and possibly direct intervention by NATO if they let the nuclear genie out of the bottle. Its the clearest way to motivate the west to massively increase support for Ukraine.

 

14 minutes ago, Luca said:

5. Ukraine will lose except if the west joins the war actively.

 

Ukraine can't lose. Even if Russia pulled off a miracle break through that put all of Ukraine under their control, their proxy government will be quickly bled to ciollapse from relentless partisan attacks. Ukraine isn't full of pacifists like Germany is. 

 

All that remains for Russia in Ukraine is to bleed their forces and fertilize sunflowers.

 

14 minutes ago, Luca said:

6. We will then have WW3. 

7. If the West doesn't join, Ukraine will lose and the country will become an empty battlefield zone over time and the government will slowly collapse. Ukraine will become a wasteland. 

 

Sacrificing regions and joining a realistic peace treaty is by far the best option to take for Ukraine and for us. We will know how this war turns out in a couple of years and I am willing to change my mind if things change! 

 

 

You are just advocating for surrendering all of Ukraine, because there is no peace treaty that Putin will sign that would truly guarantee Ukraines long term safety. Which at a minimum would require full NATO/EU membership along with full demilitarization of the Donbas and Crimea.

[Luca]

My predictions stand, now the future can prove me wrong! 

[Xerxes]

52 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Poland has purchased 32 F-35s, 48 F-16s, 48 Patriot batteries, 18 HIMARS launchers, 45 ATACMS launchers, nearly 400 Abrams tanks, 96 Apache helicopters, and 800 JASSM-ER cruise missiles, etc, etc.

do you mean “launchers” or missiles and not “batteries”. 
 

There are not many batteries in the whole world I think.
 

Each battery can have many launchers. at most maybe a dozen battery in the whole Europe ?!

[ValueArb]

33 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

do you mean “launchers” or missiles and not “batteries”. 
 

There are not many batteries in the whole world I think.
 

Each battery can have many launchers. at most maybe a dozen battery in the whole Europe ?!

Unclear to me. Latest order included 48 “launch stations”, 644 missiles, and 12 latest radar systems. First (2018) order included 2 “batteries”. So maybe it’s 14 batteries total?

 

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/06/29/us-state-dept-clears-15b-sale-of-missile-defense-system-for-poland/

Edited May 30 by ValueArb

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

Unclear to me. Latest order included 48 “launch stations”, 644 missiles, and 12 latest radar systems. First (2018) order included 2 “batteries”. So maybe it’s 14 batteries total?

 

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/06/29/us-state-dept-clears-15b-sale-of-missile-defense-system-for-poland/

right I think the rule of thumb is 6-8 launchers makes up a battery along with the radar system. Base on the quick search I did. 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2023/05/17/graphics-patriot-missiles-ukraine-russia/70227493007/

[Luca]

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/bundesregierung-deutsche-waffen-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html

 

Germany allows Ukraine to use German weapons in Russian territory! It begins!

Edited May 31 by Luca

[Gamecock-YT]

It just seems to be an ever increasing series of small escalations via 'red lines' that were previously forbidden, suddenly being allowed. So if you follow it to it's logical conclusion, where is the tipping point? Or the point of no return?

 

I would posit it will be if/when NATO member countries are in Ukraine in an 'official' capacity as trainers, or some similar capacity, and they are attacked by Russia. Until that happens everything else is only building until that potential moment. And what the response of the west will be to it. 

 

The other immediate tipping point is the US election results and should Trump win and likely pulls the plug of American support, what is the European response?

 

But I do think we are ever increasingly spiraling towards a larger conflict. Red lines are continuing to be violated with no parties even remotely interested in a resolution or a reduction in combat activities. 

 

[Luca]

Michael von der Schulenburg, former diplomat with the UN and OSCE, was Assistant Secretary-General in UN peace missions in Iraq and Sierra Leone: 

 

https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/understanding-the-ukraine-conflict-michael-von-der-schulenburgs-insights/

 

One must Negotiate with Putin

"The situation must be extremely difficult for the Ukrainians. Through more than two years of war, Ukraine has paid a heavy price in blood on both sides of the front lines, with large parts of the country having been destroyed. The country is deeply divided politically, has become the poorest country in Europe, continues to suffer from widespread corruption, and is in the process of becoming increasingly depopulated. The military situation also looks extremely unfavorable. The Ukrainians are today the cheated people of Europe, also cheated by us. Their country has become a battlefield for geopolitical interests, including Western geopolitical interests. It could now even face the risk of collapsing. If we really want to be friends with Ukraine, as we like to claim, we should now do everything we can to end this war through a negotiated peace."

 

"What he wants is pretty clear: Putin does not want NATO or foreign military bases so close to Russia in Ukraine; he wants to secure Russia’s access to the Black Sea and to protect the security of the pro-Russian population in Ukraine. We can assume that these goals are shared by the vast majority among the Russian elites and among the Russian population. As early as 1997, President Yeltsin already warned US President Clinton against wanting to bring Ukraine into NATO; he emphasized that there is a thick red line for Russia. Russia’s position has not changed since.

 

Michael von der Schulenburg was actually involved with the draft of the piece treaty in Istanbul 2022: 

 

"Yes, I mean the Istanbul Communiqué of March 30, 2022, which both sides accepted and initialed. It was drawn up by the Ukrainians and consisted of 10 proposals. It is an amazing document, a brilliant achievement of Ukrainian diplomacy. In it, Ukraine did not formally give up a single square meter of land. Kiev only accepted that the status of Crimea would be decided peacefully in 15 years. There was no mention of Donbass; that was to be negotiated directly between Zelensky and Putin. At its core, the Istanbul peace proposal was a deal between Ukraine and Russia in which the Ukraine committed itself to remaining neutral and not to allow any other state to establish military bases on its territory. Russia, in return, would guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine and withdraw all invading troops. In this document, Russia even undertook to support Ukrainian membership of the EU. But the West did not want the treaty. A week before Istanbul, there was a special NATO summit in Brussels, which Biden also attended. There, it was decided not to support any negotiations with Russia until Russia withdrew from the whole of Ukraine. This meant nothing other than NATO demanding Russia’s military defeat and, hence, clearing the way for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. When Zelensky nevertheless stuck to the peace negotiations with Russia, British Prime Minister Johnson paid an unexpected visit to Kiev on April 9, 2022, making it unmistakably clear to the Ukrainians that they would lose all support from the West if they signed a peace treaty with Russia. This put an end to the possibility of an early peace."

 

"If the USA continues to escalate with NATO support and, as announced, now sends weapons with which Russia can be hit at its strategically important locations, Russia, as indicated, would not shy away from extreme reactions. The danger of this conflict escalating into a nuclear war is therefore higher today than ever before. NATO should not underestimate Russia’s determination again."

 

"Such demonization of the opponent is common among warring parties. The other party is always the embodiment of evil against whom we, as the good guys, must fight to save the world. We will certainly find similar demonization of the West in Russia. What is perhaps unusual here is that we in the EU behave like a warring party, even though we always claim not to be a party in this war."

 

"I find it frightening that I am now getting reactions from senior German diplomats who are full of hatred for Russia. Such “diplomats” would never be in a position to conduct peace negotiations. But why do we have them then? In wars you need diplomats with a cool head, diplomats who can also understand their opponents and thus look for feasible compromises to end the killing in wars. In doing so, they must not allow themselves to be captured by their own war propaganda or pro-war media. It also plays a role here that we in Germany find it difficult to accept a different point of view, even if it advocates the silencing of weapons and peace negotiations. It’s no coincidence that I can only give this interview to a Swiss magazine, which then also publishes it."

 

"The closest we came to a solution was when the Ukrainians and Russians talked to each other directly, without Western interference. I’m sure there will be talks between the military on both sides; they all know each other because nobody wants all their people to be slaughtered. But we won’t find out about the talks until the time comes. Then it could happen very quickly. I can well imagine that the Russians are making offers to the Ukrainian military that are better than something that could be negotiated here in Switzerland, especially now that Switzerland is likely to have lost a lot of international sympathy as a neutral state due to its stance on the Gaza war."

 

 

[Luca]

https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/with-its-role-in-the-ukraine-war-the-european-union-may-risk-its-own-political-future/

 

With its role in the Ukraine war the European Union may risk its own political future

Is a political elite in the EU risking Europe’s future out of a false sense of self-righteousness?

 

And yet, peace is not part of the EU’s discourse. It is the language of war that unites the majority of European governments and the established media today – and this, although there is no common EU strategy on the Ukraine war, no common approach on what can be achieved and how. The Polish Prime Minister, for example, declared that Europe was already in a pre-war situation, perhaps already at war, and Sweden’s Prime Minister called on Swedish families to prepare for war. The President of the EU Commission can think of nothing else but to demand more and more money, more weapons and more ammunition and demands a conversion of Europe to a war economy. Even Chancellor Scholz, who we must thank for having prevented the deployment of Taurus missiles so far, only talks about Russia not being allowed to win the war. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for him and his European colleagues to think rather about how to win peace in Europe?

 

The acrimonious and irreconcilable attitude of the EU towards Russia is particularly evident in Germany in the two motions tabled by the governing and opposition parties in the Bundestag, the German parliament, on the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine. These motions read more like declarations of war against Russia, in which highly questionable arguments are combined with unrealistic maximum demands and simultaneous threats. They leave no room for compromise. Hence, any attempt at negotiations is made impossible from the outset. After two years of war, this approach is tantamount to a denial of reality. It is a policy of clinging to a continuation of the war, knowing full well that there is no realistic hope of a victorious peace in Ukraine.

 

This may also explain why individual EU member states are plunging into irresponsible actionism.  This includes France’s proposal to send NATO troops to fight in Ukraine and its plans to station French units in Moldova. It also includes once again the believe in a miracle weapon by German political hardliners and their demands on making Taurus missiles available to Ukraine. Such plans appear to be ill-conceived and therefore potentially dangerous. They are also unrealistic. The EU has neither military capabilities, nor sufficient political unity nor any popular support for individual states or the EU as a whole to launch such adventurous ventures. In any case, they would be unlikely to change the course of the war but would lead to further killing and destruction in Ukraine.

 

Furthermore, such plans run the risk of leading to an escalation of the war in Ukraine, with the frightening prospects that this could develop into a pan-European or even a nuclear World War. When a French president claims that such considerations are just a sign of cowardice and a German Green party tells us that there is no nuclear risk at all, even if Moscow or Russian military nuclear installations are attacked, they are gambling with the survival of us all. And for what? Just because we don’t want to admit to ourselves that we can no longer win this war and that negotiations are the only option left.

 

 

@Gamecock-YT   

 

Time is also running out for the EU in another respect. In just a few months, political relationship with the USA could change dramatically should Donald Trump become US President. There are already considerable differences among the EU member states, and a political landslide in the USA could divide the EU member states rather than bring them closer together. With its uncompromising pro-war and anti-Russia policy, the EU will also further isolate itself from most non-NATO states in the world. There will be no understanding there for continuing to escalate militarily while at the same time refusing to negotiate with Russia without preconditions. The EU sets itself up for a massive failure if it continues its current path of seeking solutions through ever more weapon deliveries and sanctions. In its own interests, the European Union urgently needs a change of strategy that must aim at a pan-European peace and security order based on the 1990 Charter of Paris for a New Europe and that must include Ukraine and Russia.

 

 

The forthcoming elections to the European Parliament would therefore be an opportunity for Europeans to say no to the EU’s militant policies by voting for peace on June 9.