Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

 

The good professor is on fire !!

[Luca]

So ukrainian men that fled to Europe are now denied basic consular services and are hoped to be forced back into the country where they will be handed European and American weapons to fight for their freedom! Wow... 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/blatantly-illegal-zelenskyy-government-under-fire-for-refusing-issue-consulate-services-ukrainian-men-abroad/

 

 

Edited April 25 by Luca

[Luca]

“No one had been talking about justice for servicemen in our country for a long time. But here it is, at least some small percentage of it," Ukrainian military medic Alina Mykhailova said in a post on Facebook. "No one sent us there either, but for some reason, we are there. If you don’t like it, give up your citizenship and go to hell.”

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

The good professor is on fire !!

 

That's a good video. He lays out the arms needs nicely and the desperation for help. He does however, completely avoid the topic of the manpower catastrophe that Ukraine faces. I believe you can assume the population of Ukraine is down to 25-30 million and the fighting age population significantly less. Your opponent has 144M and is dug in. You're not going to reclaim those lost territories - and you're fortunate to stop any advance.

 

You listen to the sophisticated weapons that are promised or needed - and you see the second problem - difficult & time-consuming training. In order to advance, are you going to involve Europeans??

 

The Russians can crank out munitions all day long, and one leader has a mountain of men to throw at the offensive or stalemate.

[Xerxes]

36 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

That's a good video. He lays out the arms needs nicely and the desperation for help. He does however, completely avoid the topic of the manpower catastrophe that Ukraine faces. I believe you can assume the population of Ukraine is down to 25-30 million and the fighting age population significantly less. Your opponent has 144M and is dug in. You're not going to reclaim those lost territories - and you're fortunate to stop any advance.

 

You listen to the sophisticated weapons that are promised or needed - and you see the second problem - difficult & time-consuming training. In order to advance, are you going to involve Europeans??

 

The Russians can crank out munitions all day long, and one leader has a mountain of men to throw at the offensive or stalemate.

 

Agreed

 

There is also the human individual element of it. 
 

Flocking to the patriotic flag during the dire hours of 2022 is one thing, two years later I would imagine there are two different world within the war torn Ukraine. 
 

Those in downtown of a major capital, protected like a fortress, with the occasional irritation and reminder of being at war. And those slugging it out in the trenches. 
 

Both sides enjoy the material and public support from the West, but only one side has to risk their lives everyday. 
 

I was in Tehran during the 8 years war, except for the occasional Scud missiles and air bombing via modified Mig25 (that broke through the F-14 shields) by the Iraqi and some line-ups for meat, live went on. I cannot say the same thing about the cities that were on the frontline with Iraq. 
 

I would expect as years go by, folks wanted to be in the camp that is Fortress Kyiv than being pulled

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 25 by Xerxes

[cubsfan]

8 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I was in Tehran during the 8 years war, except for the occasional Scud missiles and air bombing via modified Mig25 (that broke through the F-14 shields) by the Iraqi and some line-ups for meat, live went on. I cannot say the same thing about the cities that were on the frontline with Iraq. 

 

Oh my gosh. I had no idea. God bless you and your family!

[Xerxes]

^^^
 

thank you sir 

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - Politics [April 26^th 2024] : Sweden Ramps Up Defense Spending Goal to 2.6%, Past NATO Target, &

Bloomberg - Politics [April 24^th 2024] : Global Military Spending Tops $2 Trillion for First Time as Europe Boosts Defenses.^[1]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Something is actually happening and going on, Mike [ @cubsfan ] et. al. As with everything related to Politics, things take time, and is subject to a lot of inertia.

 

- Personally, I'm feeling confident, the general European sentiment about actual political support for the war of Ukraine against Russia now gradually is changing from 'empty / hollow' talk to real action.

 

Btw : How is it even possible to talk while [dam'n] thumb sucking?!

_______

 

^[1] I have today without luck tried to verify the data in the article on the NATO webpage.

[cubsfan]

@John Hjorth Wonderful to see John. @Xerxes Mentioned the gut check citizens & countries will have to make in committing their sons to the conflict.

 

Looking ahead, I think Ukraine really needs to think through the possibility that they could lose a million or so of their sons to this conflict - and whether, as a nation,  they can recover from that. That is - if it means ejecting the Russians for good.

 

Xerxes would know, as I believe the Iran/Iraq stalemate, cost Iran 1M young men from Saddam's ill-fated miscalculation.

Edited April 27 by cubsfan

[Xerxes]

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/frontline-ukrainians-fear-aid-u-083843561.html
 

 

…. 

 Biden promised the arms shipments would begin immediately and hailed what he called “a good day for world peace.” The reaction here, near the front lines of the war, felt very different.

 

Oleg sighed when The Daily Beast told him about the events 5,000 miles away in Washington, D.C. “Are you serious?” he said. “Now this war will just continue.” …..

…. 

Soldiers told The Daily Beast Russia hopes to take control of the city in the Donbas region by May 9, the World War II Remembrance Day for Russia and other post-Soviet countries.

 

Throughout much of Ukraine, a collective sigh of relief has been felt, and many far away from the fighting feel that finally, they are receiving the aid they so desperately have needed. But in Kharkiv, 19 miles away from the Russian border, some residents are angry that the U.S. is resuming its aid.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Reuters - European Markets [April 27^th 2024] : Russian think tank warns of stagnating industrial output, investment.

 

I have posted about it before, - here, we go again :

 

There is no way for Russia to avoid negative first order and up to x^th order negative side effect on the Russian Economy by suddenly [and as done] reallocating a futher large part of public funds to running Russia as a war economy.

 

The hostages and victims in this game will be the children in the population [Russias future], the elderly part of the population, and those for who life in general have giving them lemons, perhaps already starting by taking part in the ovarial lottery.

 

It's sad and frustrating to think about.

[John Hjorth]

From the local duck ond :

 

Danish Ministry of Defence - Ongoing operations : Danish military support for Ukraine.

 

Please try to expand the expandable '+'s a bit down in the  article in the gray area.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Meanwhile  take a look at this :

 

Danish Ministry of Defence : The Danish Government proposes to fast-track key investments in defence and security.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

So we [tiny Denmark] have been giving so much stuff and hardware to Ukraine, that in reality, we [tiny Denmark] aren't any longer capable of defending our selves, given the present circumstances and conditions. [<- ?]

 

Wise. [<- ?]

[Spekulatius]

On 4/25/2024 at 11:14 AM, Luca said:

So ukrainian men that fled to Europe are now denied basic consular services and are hoped to be forced back into the country where they will be handed European and American weapons to fight for their freedom! Wow... 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/blatantly-illegal-zelenskyy-government-under-fire-for-refusing-issue-consulate-services-ukrainian-men-abroad/

 

 

What do you think happened when you dodged draft during the Vietnam war or even Germany during the Cold War?

Edited April 28 by Spekulatius

[Irv72]

On 4/25/2024 at 3:14 PM, Luca said:

So ukrainian men that fled to Europe are now denied basic consular services and are hoped to be forced back into the country where they will be handed European and American weapons to fight for their freedom! Wow... 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/blatantly-illegal-zelenskyy-government-under-fire-for-refusing-issue-consulate-services-ukrainian-men-abroad/

 

 

In MANY countries, including the US and many European ones, leaving the country at time of war would be considered desertion, and punished with long prison terms. One wouldn't be denied consular services; one would be arrested on the spot.

 

The Ukrainian government is so nice it's downright populist.

Edited April 28 by Irv72

[Luca]

1 hour ago, Irv72 said:

In MANY countries, including the US and many European ones, leaving the country at time of war would be considered desertion, and punished with long prison terms. One wouldn't be denied consular services; one would be arrested on the spot.

 

The Ukrainian government is so nice it's downright populist.

 

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

What do you think happened when you dodged draft during during Vietnam war or even Germany during the Cold War?

 

I am from Germany, Article 4 of our constitution forbids to force people against their own conscience to fight with a weapon in war. Now in Ukraine, they literally grab young guys who know they will end up dead from the streets and drive them badly trained into a battle they can not win.

 

Even worse, now the guys who fled because they knew it was game over for them are denied consular services to try to force them back into the country that will just grab and sacrifice them at the front lines. 

 

It's a pretty sad state of affairs and the pope is right, negotiated peace is better than a war without end. Zelensky should stop his meat grinder, be the bigger man, ignore the West that uses him to fight a proxy war, and take care of the few remaining guys at the front by restarting the negotiations for a peace agreement and get the security guarantees putin is willing to offer. For what is zelensky fighting here? What is there to save that justifies hundreds of billions of dollars to keep this front-line sustainable--> Blackrock etc are all ready to buy up the land, and build the country up so it acts as a satellite and extended market for the US...that's surely bringing putin to withdraw and allow even closer US sphere expansion to their borders...nuts...

[Sweet]

10 minutes ago, Luca said:

For what is zelensky fighting here?

 

Ukraine is fighting for freedom from Russian domination, Zelenskyy has made that clear many times and the Ukrainian people are mostly behind him.

 

Who in their right mind would trust Putin and the ‘security guarantees putin is willing to offer’?  He cannot be trusted.

 

Many countries have punishments for trying to dodge a draft, Ukraine is no different.  To date Zelenskyy has resisted a general draft hoping to prevent young Ukrainian men from being sent to the front.  The average age of military men is 43.  Zelenskyy has been very reserved when it comes to army recruitment.

[Luca]

27 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Ukraine is fighting for freedom from Russian domination, Zelenskyy has made that clear many times and the Ukrainian people are mostly behind him.

Yeah sure, which leader would not try to negotiate peace here? Why is zelensky sacrificing 100k people+ which are either dead or permanently injured just for a couple of rural regions? Why is the west sponsoring hundreds of billions of dollars for these regions but was unwilling to fund anything in their own countries for other reasons (infrastructure investments, schools, energy etc)? The west escalates this war together with zelensky, the west stopped peace negotiations that could have saved ten thousand people and many damaged regions in ukraine. 

27 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Who in their right mind would trust Putin and the ‘security guarantees putin is willing to offer’?  He cannot be trusted.

Negotiated peace is better than war, Putin was and still is willing to give security guarantees but Ukraine has to agree on not joining nato, no foreign military trainings, forbid nazism etc considering that zelensky by now literally IS the west and already sees ukraine joining nato, inviting all the US capitalists over, having US military training, maybe even US military bases close to the Russian border? Which independent and security-orientated country wouldn't interfere or invade here? What would the US do when China does the same to Mexico? 

27 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Many countries have punishments for trying to dodge a draft, Ukraine is no different.  To date Zelenskyy has resisted a general draft hoping to prevent young Ukrainian men from being sent to the front.  The average age of military men is 43.  Zelenskyy has been very reserved when it comes to army recruitment.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html#:~:text='People Snatchers'%3A Ukraine's Recruiters,commissions and coercive mobilization tactics.

 

This is horrible, similar to what Russia is doing. 

[Gregmal]

3 hours ago, Irv72 said:

In MANY countries, including the US and many European ones, leaving the country at time of war would be considered desertion, and punished with long prison terms. One wouldn't be denied consular services; one would be arrested on the spot.

 

The Ukrainian government is so nice it's downright populist.

Isn’t this disgusting? A war started by a politician I didn’t vote for and don’t support means I either risk my life for a cause I don’t want anything to do with, or go to jail….true democracy!

[Sweet]

36 minutes ago, Luca said:

Yeah sure, which leader would not try to negotiate peace here? Why is zelensky sacrificing 100k people+ which are either dead or permanently injured just for a couple of rural regions? Why is the west sponsoring hundreds of billions of dollars for these regions but was unwilling to fund anything in their own countries for other reasons (infrastructure investments, schools, energy etc)? The west escalates this war together with zelensky, the west stopped peace negotiations that could have saved ten thousand people and many damaged regions in ukraine. 

Negotiated peace is better than war, Putin was and still is willing to give security guarantees but Ukraine has to agree on not joining nato, no foreign military trainings, forbid nazism etc considering that zelensky by now literally IS the west and already sees ukraine joining nato, inviting all the US capitalists over, having US military training, maybe even US military bases close to the Russian border? Which independent and security-orientated country wouldn't interfere or invade here? What would the US do when China does the same to Mexico? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html#:~:text='People Snatchers'%3A Ukraine's Recruiters,commissions and coercive mobilization tactics.

 

This is horrible, similar to what Russia is doing. 

Over a few rural regions - really Luca?  Putin tried to take the entire country but was stopped.  He is still trying to take the entire country.  What the heck are you smoking?

 

The West did not stop peace negotiations.  There was no deal, no agreement on territory, or what a post war Ukraine would look like.  Ukraine was at the table because of weakness and walked away when they kicked the Russians out from large swathes of territory, and because they didn’t agree on Russian demands.

 

Putin for his part has been sending mixed messages.  Last month he said he wouldn’t negotiate, this month he said he was open to negotiating.  Again though, why would you trust Putin?  He has broken so many agreements that his word means nothing:

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4443781-history-shows-that-no-ceasefire-or-treaty-with-russia-can-be-trusted/#:~:text=Finally%2C aside from breaking ceasefires,site inspections of nuclear arms.

 

Why shouldn’t a post war Ukraine join NATO or the EU?  It’s only a problem for Russia if Russia intends to attack Ukraine.

 

For what it’s worth, I also think a negotiated settlement is the way out of this.  The two sides are stalemated.  But just accepting Putin’s demands would be dumb.

 

Edited April 28 by Sweet

[Sweet]

8 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Isn’t this disgusting? A war started by a politician I didn’t vote for and don’t support means I either risk my life for a cause I don’t want anything to do with, or go to jail….true democracy!

What are you referring to Greg?  Are you talking about yourself or putting yourself in the shoes of a Ukrainian?

 

 

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, Sweet said:

What are you referring to Greg?  Are you talking about yourself or putting yourself in the shoes of a Ukrainian?

 

 

In general? Imagine being in Ukraine or America or any country for that matter, and some politician picks a fight or gets involved in a war and now YOU have to pay the price for them? Or go to jail? Fuck that. I mean I’d be cool saying, “if you voted for XYZ and XYZ gets you into a war it’s mandatory you fight”…but don’t make problems I didn’t ask for my problems. Let alone let them dictate my freedoms. And no, I don’t need a politician or media outlet to tell me whether or not my freedom is at risk by the “war”.

[Sweet]

15 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

In general? Imagine being in Ukraine or America or any country for that matter, and some politician picks a fight or gets involved in a war and now YOU have to pay the price for them? Or go to jail? Fuck that. I mean I’d be cool saying, “if you voted for XYZ and XYZ gets you into a war it’s mandatory you fight”…but don’t make problems I didn’t ask for my problems. Let alone let them dictate my freedoms. And no, I don’t need a politician or media outlet to tell me whether or not my freedom is at risk by the “war”.

Yeh, it sucks.  I’d have a problem going to war at my stage in life - kids.  Plus I wouldn’t want to kill someone because I believe life is precious.  This is contrary to people like Putin I might add.

 

In the case of Ukraine, nobody voted for the war.  The war was foisted upon them by Putin.  They could have just given up but they haven’t.

Unfortunately I think a draft is sometimes necessary in war.  It’s unfair for others to be fighting but you’re not.  I have trouble with this because it conflicts with my view that you are not the property of the state.

 

I had a very large number of family members who fought in world war 2.  Young men in their 20s who had their life ahead of them and who risked it all.  That generation was just different.  They say they were the greatest generation and I think they probably were.

[Xerxes]

There is nothing wrong with politicians starting wars offensive and/or defensive, as they are there to led and we elected to do just that. Or in some cases they put guns on our head and said elect me. 
 

However I expect every one of those same politician to put their owns sons and daughters right in the frontline, ready to give their lives for that vision that was so important. 
 

I think this should be in fact a requirement. 
 

Skin in the game. 

[Xerxes]

38 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Young men in their 20s who had their life ahead of them and who risked it all.  That generation was just different.  They say they were the greatest generation and I think they probably were.

I don’t know where I read this. It was about someone who was watching Masters of the Air who was recounting a conversation he had, I think, in the 60s or 70s with one of those retired bomber leaders post-war, and how someone in his early 20s could have so much responsibility. 
 

The person then mentioned that he wouldn’t trust his own 20 year old with a wheelbarrow. 
 

 

[Sweet]

29 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I don’t know where I read this. It was about someone who was watching Masters of the Air who was recounting a conversation he had, I think, in the 60s or 70s with one of those retired bomber leaders post-war, and how someone in his early 20s could have so much responsibility. 
 

The person then mentioned that he wouldn’t trust his own 20 year old with a wheelbarrow. 
 

 

People were different then, and mostly in a good way.  The side of my family that all went to war grew up in what would be considered extreme poverty by modern standards.
 

We tend to think America and Europe have been rich developed countries for many years, but I’m talking no running water, no electricity, no telephone, the toilet was a bucket buried in the garden every few days, and you grew a lot of your own food.  Meals were nearly always break or potatoes, milk and eggs.  That was rural UK early 1900s.

 

It’s amazing just how crazy the living standards are now, how technology has improved our lives, and how much better we all have it and yet the levels of entitlement and complaining are off the charts.

 

There is a saying that hard times create strong men and good times create weak men.  I think there is something to that.  I’m not nearly as strong as the WW2 generation was and I’ve had it so much better than they did.  God love them.
 

Edited April 28 by Sweet