Russia-Ukrainian War

[no_free_lunch]

13 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Putin is a degenerate, and should not have invaded, nor has he any right to dictate to free nations how to behave, but you lose all credibility with posts like this.  Poland was part of the Russian empire, so were the Baltic States and Finland.  Western Ukraine (Galicia) was not.  

Well this part of the debate I think can be resolved amicably.  I do not intend to mislead.  As I understand the history, Poland was an independent country for hundreds of years up until 1800 or so.   At that point it was split up by several countries including yes, Russia.  However, I would not call it Russian territory historically or ethnically.  It would be like saying that Russia is really a Mongolian country because they ruled for a period.

[Luca]

And the EU is not up against a tyrant, Ukraine is. It's not our war, we have some responsibility for the cause but that doesnt mean we should do what we are doing. Right now germany still imports russian gas but via ships and other countries (so stupid and for a higher price even) just because we thought its a good idea to "get tough" with russia. 

[UK]

38 minutes ago, Luca said:

Always reverse the logic and try to think about what the US would do if there would be a chinese/russian "defensive" military alliance that starts to expand around the US and starts talking with mexico about setting up some missiles operated together with mexican military. We saw that happening before and the US got very very threatening with violence. 

 

Well of course US would not allow that.  And it does the opposite in the South China sea etc. And it is not always because it is right or wrong...but because it can and has power to do it:)

 

But Luca, let me ask, is US/NATO/EU sphere of influence for you is the same as Russia's/China's? I already asked on this thread: name me one country which made substantial progress for the better under Russia's influence In the last 20 or 30 years? I can name you a few which didn't and many, which prospered under NATO/EU. Accidentally, one of them is former German Democratic Republic. Or it was also mistake, hypocrisy and it was supposed to be left for Russia, or at least out of NATO, as WAS promised before unification? 

 

It is not foregone conclusion, but Ukraine (maybe not all) has a decent chance to became a similarly normal country, maybe not as cool as former eastern Germany, but way way better then it was or Russia is today. Which would be a huge plus for EU/NATO and of course this is what scares Putin most: truly successful Slavic country right next door. 

 

So again: what US/NATO/EU would mean for Ukraine and what Putin can offer? This is why most people of Ukraine supported this whole bloody struggle from its beginning in 2013.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by UK

[cubsfan]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Thank you, @Luca,

 

Yes, I practice gallows humor [German : Galgen witz, Danish : Galgenhumor] to mentally cope with and to mentally survive the madness thats going on here in Europe. It is for sure needed.

 

I have started to follow Sahra Wagenknecht, based on the content of your last post. My spoken German is a bit rusty, but I have no problem taking care of dailyday activity by speaking German, while in Germany, while I have absolutely no problem with understading all shades and nuances of the German language spoken or written. [Insufficient active vocabulary, because of lack of practice].

 

I also feel like a touchy bitch when our North American friends here on CoBF talks about money and starts blending US South border security into this European warfare matter.

 

It concerns preventive measures in relation to 1st or 2nd order effects in relation to other and European NATO member states in case the situation escalates further. If our common North American CoBF members cannot or will not understand this, then I am not able to explain it.

 

Just to try to trigger some kind of embarrassment into our fellow North American CoBF members with such stance, I will try to dig up some factual data about how Denmark has behaved in relation to Ukrainian refugees coming to Denmark since the war in Ukraine started.

 

@Luca,

 

Nassim Taleb would express it as "You simply don't have the same skin in the game as your North American friends on CoBF." -Period.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

Bloomberg [September 26^th 2023] : Erdogan Says Turkish Approval of Sweden NATO Bid Hinges on F-16s.

 

Just Recep Tayyip Erdogan oportunistic modus operandi.

John - don’t get me wrong. The US support for the actions against Russia in Ukraine is very strong in this country. But, concurrently, you have the worst border crisis is history happening. It’s getting worse every month. 
 

So you have 100,000 Americans per year dying of fentanyl poisoning. Every year . Shit, we only lost 5 or 6,000 in Afghanistan and Iraq combined over 20 years!  The Mexican cartels are killing Americans as they flood the country with fentanyl. Not to mention widespread child & human trafficking. The southern border is a catastrophe.

 

Americans are finally catching on, and support for an administration that spends hundreds of billions to protect another country’s borders, but nothing to protect US borders is causing support for Ukraine to fail.

 

it’s a real danger to the cause - so don’t shoot the messenger.

 

in the end, the US has weak, corrupt and terrible leadership. Everyone knows that Biden is corrupt to Ukraine - payoffs & bribes. Biden & son took his bribes way back in 2015, but did nothing to protect Ukraine back then.

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Dinar said:

@John Hjorth, as US taxpayer, I do not have a problem with welcoming Ukrainian refugees to the US.  I think US will gain mightily from these mostly highly educated and hardworking people.  I do have a problem with a porous border, that allows millions of people from Haiti, Yemen, Africa, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Latin America to cross into the US, people who at best will be a drain on society, and at worst will commit crimes and terrorist acts.  Keep in mind, unskilled immigrants also destroy job prospects and wage growth for unskilled Americans, creating all sorts of social problems - alcoholism, drug addiction, broken families, fatherless children, and the list goes on.

Bingo! And exactly right!

[mcliu]

$100B more to maintain current stalemate.. 

"Milley says: there will be no military victory."

 

 

[cubsfan]

24 minutes ago, mcliu said:

$100B more to maintain current stalemate.. 

"Milley says: there will be no military victory."

 

 

This is a very good clip, in that it encapsulates the current dilemma. Americans support the war BUT what are the goals of this administration?

 

They obviously don’t know and certainly are not making it clear to Americans.

 

that’s a problem for the war effort.

[Luca]

17 minutes ago, UK said:

But Luca, let me ask, is US/NATO/EU sphere of influence for you is the same as Russia's/China's?

I'd say that looking at the last 80 years, NATO and the US have been doing more aggressive military moves/funding/interventions than China and Russia and that sets things well into perspective. "Do as we command, not as we did"!

17 minutes ago, UK said:

I already asked on this thread: name me one country witch made substantial progress for the better under Russia's influence In the last 20 or 30 years? I can name you a few which didn't and many, witch prospered under NATO/EU.

That doesn't matter for this discussion and doesn't justify anything, if you take china, they did one of the greatest wealth creations on earth

17 minutes ago, UK said:

Accidentally, one of them is former German Democratic Republic. Or it was also mistake, hypocrisy and it supposed to be left for Russia, or at least out of NATO, as WAS promised before unification? 

Germany had a flourishing scientific and industrial base before WW2, we had growth pretty much all over Europe so that is not something unique what happened in Germany but rather the European industrial machine that started with the industrial revolution in England IMO. 

17 minutes ago, UK said:

It is not foregone conclusion, but Ukraine (maybe not all) has a decent chance to became a similarly normal country, maybe not as cool as former eastern Germany, but way way better then it was or Russia is today. Which would be a huge plus for EU/NATO and of course this is what scares Putin most: truly successful Slavic country right next door. 

Yes, Ukraine could have done many things and some of them might have happened if there wouldn't have been continued expansion and tingling by the west with Ukraine. 

17 minutes ago, UK said:

So again: what US/NATO/EU would mean for Ukraine and what Putin can offer? This is why most people of Ukraine supported this whole bloody struggle from its beginning in 2013.

Putin doesnt offer much and its completely understandable that they want to join NATO and all the rest BUT the neighbor is not accepting that, same as the US wouldnt accept chinese/russian missiles and mexico joining foreign military alliances. 

 

Now Putin would rather destroy Ukraine so that there is nothing left to join anything anymore and set a statement, which is obviously monstrous and vicious. The west started to happily join fighting against Russians, throwing more and more coal into the fire, sending more and more heavy weapons and joining the 0 negotiation with russia clause that the selensky administration set. 

 

The dying will continue until Ukraine is bombed to nothing and most men are dead, easily thinkable Putin will use some smaller nuclear bombs if he is pushed enough into a corner. 

[Luca]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

John - don’t get me wrong. The US support for the actions against Russia in Ukraine is very strong in this country. But, concurrently, you have the worst border crisis is history happening. It’s getting worse every month. 
 

So you have 100,000 Americans per year dying of fentanyl poisoning. Every year . Shit, we only lost 5 or 6,000 in Afghanistan and Iraq combined over 20 years!  The Mexican cartels are killing Americans as they flood the country with fentanyl. Not to mention widespread child & human trafficking. The southern border is a catastrophe.

 

Americans are finally catching on, and support for an administration that spends hundreds of billions to protect another country’s borders, but nothing to protect US borders is causing support for Ukraine to fail.

 

it’s a real danger to the cause - so don’t shoot the messenger.

 

in the end, the US has weak, corrupt and terrible leadership. Everyone knows that Biden is corrupt to Ukraine - payoffs & bribes. Biden & son took his bribes way back in 2015, but did nothing to protect Ukraine back then.

Yeah, sums up pretty much the state of the west. Inflation hit the middle class severely, they have been neglected for too long, average white middle class citizen is angry and disappointed and sees his taxed dollar thrown out the house for some weird foreign military projects, real needs are not looked after by the parties etc.

[Xerxes]

If you want to support Ukraine as an open-ended conflict, go with Hilux, the best versatile h/w 

 

[Luca]

1 hour ago, mcliu said:

$100B more to maintain current stalemate.. 

"Milley says: there will be no military victory."

 

 

Yep, Germany is on its way to more than 5% of its annual total household budget for this war, around 25b. If you set budgets into perspective thats around the same what the US spent. For us way more than things like education etc. pp. 

 

NO inspector that sees where the money goes, LOL! 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Luca

[Luca]

1 hour ago, mcliu said:

$100B more to maintain current stalemate.. 

"Milley says: there will be no military victory."

 

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66542065

 

Thousands often try to sneak out of the country, mostly across the Carpathian mountains to Romania.

For those who stay, mass group chats help them avoid being drafted. Telegram threads give tip-offs on where drafting officers are patrolling. There are chats for different regions and cities across the country, sometimes with more than 100,000 members each.

 

The family of one military draft chief in Odesa were even accused recently of buying cars and property on Spain's southern coast costing millions of dollars. The officer reportedly denies any knowledge of this.

 

The family of Yevhen Borysov, military draft chief in Odesa, has purchased property and cars worth millions of dollars on the Spanish coast during the full-scale war. Records from the Spanish registry evidence this, although Borysov himself claims that he does not know whether his family has any property in Spain.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/22/7407993/

 

Two months following the exposure of information that Borysov's family had acquired a villa in Spain worth over €3 million, and that his wife purchased an office space on the main street of the Spanish city of Marbella, and several expensive cars, Ukrainska Pravda (UP) has obtained records from the Spanish registry for both the villa and the office space.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Luca

[UK]

5 hours ago, Luca said:

Germany had a flourishing scientific and industrial base before WW2, we had growth pretty much all over Europe so that is not something unique what happened in Germany but rather the European industrial machine that started with the industrial revolution in England IMO.

 

Oh sure. But I was asking you about period and progress eastern Germany made AFTER unification in 1990. So was allowance of it into West and NATO also a mistake, hypocrisy and it supposed to be left for Russia, or at least out of NATO, as WAS promised before unification:)?

 

Btw, quite interesting story: https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32066222

 

And also: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/12/russias-belief-in-nato-betrayal-and-why-it-matters-today

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by UK

[Xerxes]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/09/26/americas/canada-house-speaker-anthony-rota-tuesday/index.html
 

Dumbass #1 resigned. Well earned. 
 

They went looking for something to fit the anti-Russian narrative. In their blindness, ran straight to the wall.

 

And they ALL applauded, and now they started finger pointing, but before applauding started no one stopped to ask, “well if you fought in WW2 against the Russians (and we are not taking 1939 Poland), than maybe you were with the other side”

 

That is the number 1 issue with this conflict. Everyone is trying to f$&ing hard to be pro-Ukraine. Almost going out of their way.

Why is there a need to force narrative. Just stick to the basics, “Russia invaded Ukraine”. And that is fundamentally wrong. That is all you need. 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

Blackswans hitting three mortals at the same time.  

 

The speaker of the Canadian parliament did not know just three days ago that he would cause an huge embarrassment that would cost his job. The anti-Russian narrative was so important to maintain at all cost. Well you don’t have a job now. 
 

 

The prime minister of Canada did not know just three days ago that his biggest headache this week had nothing to do with what he had revealed about the assassination of the Sikh activist in BC by India’ spy agency, but rather something completely out of the left field. 
 

 

 

The former SS Waffen soldier and Ukrainian patriot, chilling in Ontario, did not know just three days ago (perhaps it is the age) that Poland was going to ask for his extradition. LOL. 

 

[UK]

37 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

The former SS Waffen soldier and Ukrainian patriot, chilling in Ontario, did not know just three days ago (perhaps it is the age) that Poland was going to ask for his extradition. LOL. 

 

:). Karma is a Bitch!

[Luca]

5 hours ago, UK said:

Oh sure. But I was asking you about period and progress eastern Germany made AFTER unification in 1990. So was allowance of it into West and NATO also a mistake, hypocrisy and it supposed to be left for Russia, or at least out of NATO, as WAS promised before unification:)?

Really hard to make any predictions on these "what if" situations, perhaps then we would have a different Europe and different geopolitical climate etc.

[John Hjorth]

DST [Danmarks Statistik - The Danish Statistical Department] : Theme - Invasion of Ukraine .

 

Ufortunately, the graphs break, if I try to give it a spin in Google Translate, translating the webpage to English.

 

This text in Danish :

Quote

Hvor størstedelen af personer med ukrainsk oprindelse i Danmark var mænd i 30’erne før 2022, er det en anden køns- og alderssammensætning, der kom til Danmark i løbet af 2022. Størstedelen af de indvandrede ukrainere var kvinder på 20 år eller ældre. De udgjorde 14.900 personer. Dernæst kom 12.000 børn og unge i alderen 0 til 19 år, og endelig udgjorde mænd på 20 år eller ældre 4.600 personer. Kvinder og børn udgjorde dermed 85 pct. af alle indvandrede ukrainske statsborgere i 2022.

translates to the following in English :

Quote

While the majority of people of Ukrainian origin in Denmark were men in their 30s before 2022, it is a different gender and age composition that came to Denmark during 2022. The majority of immigrated Ukrainians were women aged 20 or older. They made up 14,900 people. Next came 12,000 children and young people aged 0 to 19, and finally men aged 20 or older made up 4,600 people. Women and children thus made up 85 per cent. of all immigrated Ukrainian citizens in 2022.

 

This text in Danish :

Quote

Tilknytning til arbejdsmarkedet

Kort efter den russiske invasion af Ukraine begyndte, vedtog et bredt flertal af Folketingets partier en særlov, som skulle give ukrainske personer, som indvandrede efter invasionen, opholdstilladelse og mulighed for at komme hurtigere i arbejde. Af de ukrainske statsborgere, som er omfattet af særloven, var 6.800 personer i lønmodtagerbeskæftigelse i december 2022. Heraf 4.700 kvinder og 2.200 mænd. 

Omkring 1.200 var ansat i branchen hoteller og restauranter og ligeledes 1.200 i den branche, der blandt andet omfatter rengøring og vikarbureauer. Omkring 1.000 var ansat i landbruget og 700 i hver af brancherne handel og industri.

Inden invasionen, i slutningen af november 2021, var billedet noget anderledes. Her var der 9.586 lønmodtagere med ukrainsk oprindelse på det danske arbejdsmarked, hvor både indvandrere og efterkommere tæller med. Det var især i svine- og kvægbranchen, der fandtes mange lønmodtagere med ukrainsk oprindelse. I svinebranchen var der 2.168 beskæftigede, mens der var 1.590 i kvægbranchen.

translates to the following in English :

Quote

Connection to the labor market

Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, a broad majority of the parties in the Folketing passed a special law which should give Ukrainian people who immigrated after the invasion a residence permit and the opportunity to get to work more quickly. Of the Ukrainian citizens covered by the special law, 6,800 people were in salaried employment in December 2022. Of these, 4,700 were women and 2,200 were men.

Around 1,200 were employed in the hotels and restaurants industry and also 1,200 in the industry, which includes cleaning and temp agencies. Around 1,000 were employed in agriculture and 700 in each of the trade and industry sectors.

Before the invasion, at the end of November 2021, the picture was somewhat different. Here there were 9,586 wage earners with Ukrainian origins on the Danish labor market, which includes both immigrants and descendants. It was especially in the pig and cattle industry that there were many wage earners of Ukrainian origin. In the pig industry, there were 2,168 employed, while there were 1,590 in the cattle industry.

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Luca]

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

@Luca,

 

I just stopped at the 4:14 mark in the video posted by you with the interview of Prof. John J. Meirshaimer.

 

That was to me enough. He is a Ph. D. and all that kind of fine stuff, but he's nothing but an highly edudated idiot. Advocating a view the NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg is the 'real agressor' here, 'teasing Russia'.

 

It's just so f***ing lame! Utter *BS*!

 

1. How about what the people of Ukraine want?

2. Does the people of Ukraine actually deliver by themselves, under the armed conflict, simply by fighting back, to the best of the abilities of the people?

 

Please give me a break.

Edited September 27, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Luca]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

@Luca,

 

I just stopped at the 4:14 mark in the video posted by you with the interview of Prof. John J. Meirshaimer.

Its quite the interesting and balanced view.

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

That was to me enough. He is a Ph. D. and all that kind of fine stuff, but he's nothing but an highly edudated idiot. Advocating a view the NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg is the 'real agressor' here, 'teasing Russia'.

 

It's just so f***ing lame! Utter *BS*!

Disagree!

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

1. How about what the people of Ukraine want?

If mexicans would want to join a chinese military alliance that wants to build some rockets close to the us with mexican chinese interoperability, theyd face the same as the ukrainians face now. 

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

2. Does the people of Ukraine actually deliver by themselves, under the armed conflict, simply by fighting back, to the best of the abilities of the people?

They receive hundreds of billions of dollars worth of advanced weapons from foreign unfriendly forces (to russia), receive US and Nato intelligence information about russian positions etc, this is not just the ukranian men fighting, i cant blame putin for saying its a proxy war. 

[Luca]

The majority of the world did NOT join into these really quite useless sanctions that rather backfired and lead to an even more hostile western political climate due to the inflation etc. We now still buy russian energy but over more complicated ways and other countries which is a complete political joke and farce. 

 

China and Co now have the nice cheap russian energy that we lack and for what? So that this war can go on for a couple of months/years and will lead to ukraine becoming the defect rumpsteak putin wants it to be? Easier to just immediately stop the funding and stop wasting the tax dollars. We completely lost communications with russian administration too so the relationship needs to be rebuilt in the first place. 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Luca

[cubsfan]

4 hours ago, Luca said:

 

 

 

This guy is a farce. He blames the West for causing this. How lame to make excuses and in effect ok Putin’s invasion. Then he says we armed them and assumed that Ukrainian manpower would defeat Russia !  What planet is this guy from…Ukraine was NOT armed by the west before the invasion and everyone expected that Ukraine would be overrun by the Russians .

 

This guy had zero credibility 

[no_free_lunch]

I agree with Luca on the sanctions.  They simply do not work.   Not with China / India avoiding them.

 

The rest I think is short sighted.   It all boils down to whether the US & now NATO should interfere or simply stay in their zone.  Our rivals are not staying put, they are expanding.  If we do nothing, then you face irrelevance and then who knows.  Certainly Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Tibet, etc. teach us that we cannot sit idle and expect to be left alone.  We have to have defenses.  Just a question of where we draw the defensive lines and what we are willing to do to protect those lines.

[Luca]

9 hours ago, cubsfan said:

This guy is a farce. He blames the West for causing this.

Its still Putins fault to attack them for it but we did our own part. 

9 hours ago, cubsfan said:

How lame to make excuses and in effect ok Putin’s invasion.

Its not an excuse, just an observation. And the invasion is still not okay. 

9 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Then he says we armed them and assumed that Ukrainian manpower would defeat Russia ! What planet is this guy from…Ukraine was NOT armed by the west before the invasion and everyone expected that Ukraine would be overrun by the Russians .

I want immediate stopping of intelligence support for ANY Ukrainian operations, stop delivering any education or training to Ukrainians, stop sending any weapons and THEN see how long Ukraine could last. They already received hundreds of billions in weapons so youd have to discount that too. 

9 hours ago, cubsfan said:

This guy had zero credibility 

Absolutely not.