Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

Thanks Haryana,

 

Was watching a video on YouTube, it was saying how the specs of this *new* intermediate ballistic missile are within what was banned under Intermediate Treaty in 1987 which was torn apart during the first Trump administration, heavily pushed by John Bolton. 
 

In hindsight, unless I am mistaken (as I am no expert) this events vindicate the decision to set aside the 1987 treaty by Trump. 
 

Kremlin may have been abiding by the letter of the 1987 law, but not in the spirits of the same law. Oreshnik must have been developed during 1987 ban, with specs just within what was permissible, and an easy jump to upgrade once the treaty was no more. 
 

Reminds me of Treaty of Versailles that limited the German armed forces to no more than 100,000 men. A small number for then 1930s armies. But those restrictions were easily bypassed by a clever General Staff, by keep rotating new troops and doing early retirement, while keeping under 100,000 men. Do that five or six times, you have 500,000 and 600,000 trained, standing de facto army, ready to put on the uniform once the treaty is torn apart. 

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-cant-make-ukraine-enough-weaponsso-its-paying-kyiv-to-do-it-f9b86bf0?mod=mhp

 

Ukraine will still rely on Western allies for advanced weapons such as Patriot surface-to-air interceptor missiles. But officials say the new approach will allow Kyiv to acquire weapons faster and in greater number than waiting for European arms to be produced. Ukraine can do this because its arms industry is operating far below its production capacity—30% of its potential, by some estimates—because of insufficient funding.

...

“Ukraine was the heart of the Soviet defense industrial base, so they have a lot of know-how when it comes to manufacturing complex systems,” Ciaramella said. Supporting Ukraine’s defense industry lets the West help ensure Ukraine’s long-term self-sufficiency, he said.

 

Meanwhile: https://www.ehttps://www.economist.com/europe/2024/11/24/ukraines-warriors-brace-for-a-kremlin-surge-in-the-south

 

But Ukraine’s systemic weakness is clearly taking its toll on the morale of its front-line fighters. With no hope for rotation or demobilisation, some of the once most committed now wonder if a ceasefire might be the only way out. “Chechen”, the brigade officer leading the new soldiers’ training session, says he remains determined to fight to the end. “Giving away territories to these disgusting people is no guarantee it will stop.” But he admits that fewer soldiers than ever share his resolve. “It’s not even 50-50 any more, but 30-70.” Lemberg puts the situation in even starker terms. “In 2022 I was ready to tear the Russians apart with my teeth,” he says. “In 2023, I just needed rest. This year? I almost couldn’t give a fuck.”

 

Edited November 26 by UK

[changegonnacome]

16 hours ago, UK said:

“In 2022 I was ready to tear the Russians apart with my teeth,” he says. “In 2023, I just needed rest. This year? I almost couldn’t give a fuck.”

 

Jesus - rough stuff reading........It really wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine's front line collapses in the coming weeks....it must be incredibly difficult for Ukraine's military leadership to maintain discipline and commitment now in the lower ranks.....I feel for the Ukrainian fighters out there in Eastern Ukraine.....the David vs. Goliath ending is assuredly over now....and so it must be near impossible to summon up the 'why' required to press forward and put your life on the line.

[Xerxes]

22 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Jesus - rough stuff reading........It really wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine's front line collapses in the coming weeks....it must be incredibly difficult for Ukraine's military leadership to maintain discipline and commitment now in the lower ranks.....I feel for the Ukrainian fighters out there in Eastern Ukraine.....the David vs. Goliath ending is assuredly over now....and so it must be near impossible to summon up the 'why' required to press forward and put your life on the line.

Iran-Iraq War 1980-88 

 

Both sides were gung-ho for first 3-4 years. By year 7 or 8, exhaustion sets in. 
 

I was born in 1980. When I got to be 8 years old, that is when the war ended. 

[changegonnacome]

46 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Both sides were gung-ho for first 3-4 years. By year 7 or 8, exhaustion sets in. 

 

Yep mutually hurting stalemates and the concept of 'ripeness' for negotiated settlements has always been a pretty descent framework for how a lot of seemingly intractable conflicts get resolved......ripeness almost being a perfect substitute for the word exhausted!

https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/9897/chapter/7

 

The wrinkle to this..........would indeed be a Ukrainian collapse whereby Russia started making sustained and speedy territorial gains due to the Ukrainian front line collapsing......nothing mutually hurting about making advanced gains in a short space of time....before you head to the negotiating table.

[dwy000]

Russian ruble collapsing. After holding relatively steady for past 2 years it's down about 20% in the past 2 weeks as Central Bank seems to be running out of funds to support it.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens if the general public really starts feeling the effects of the war in Russia. 

[changegonnacome]

30 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Russian ruble collapsing. After holding relatively steady for past 2 years it's down about 20% in the past 2 weeks as Central Bank seems to be running out of funds to support it.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens if the general public really starts feeling the effects of the war in Russia. 

 

Yep been watching that..... I think everything in the US/EU's power now should be done now to kind of dial up the pain on the Russian side......not sure what sanctions are left or whether the existing ones enforcement can be dialled up....but they should be.....there's a window, perhaps only a few months when Trump gets into office where the whole situation is really Biden's folly still......before too long though the stink starts to get on Trump's suit & its his ego/machismo begins to get wrapped up in the situation.......there's on off-ramp coming up for the two superpowers......I think they'll take it....at the expense of Ukraine.

[Spekulatius]

16 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep been watching that..... I think everything in the US/EU's power now should be done now to kind of dial up the pain on the Russian side......not sure what sanctions are left or whether the existing ones enforcement can be dialled up....but they should be.....there's a window, perhaps only a few months when Trump gets into office where the whole situation is really Biden's folly still......before too long though the stink starts to get on Trump's suit & its his ego/machismo begins to get wrapped up in the situation.......there's on off-ramp coming up for the two superpowers......I think they'll take it....at the expense of Ukraine.

Target the Russian oil exports via the shadow fleet. Russia war funding comes from selling crude.  Russian Oil will always find a way to leak out so the game is to reduce the amount force them to sell it very very cheap.

There is ample supply world wide which China’s demand going downhill, so I think a reduction in supply is manageable.

 

Most countries who seen a rapidly decline currency are seeing hyperinflation due to the switch to war economy where consumption and investment are replaced by war related production.

 

Most countries where the currency goes to hell end up losing - the Southern states (Greyback), Deutsches Reich (Reichmark started to steep decline after Stalingrad).

 

Another possibility is allowing them strikes on Russian Nsrgy infrastructure like the LNG facility in the Baltics and Refineries in Wolgograd or anything within reach of Storm Shadows. The latter would also reduce their supply of fuel to the front lines. It’s not escalation either because Russia has been hitting Ukraine’s infrastructure since the war started.

Edited November 28 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

A total mess here in Denmark today. A bit before mid day I had to make a call. Phone refused to react to anything, just playing dead. Found out all connection was gone. This first outage did last some time, but then suddenly things started working again.

 

Severe problems also from the beginning of the day with the only Danish railroad DSB [State owned monopoly], especially in the Northern part of Jutland.

 

Then later a longer lasting outage from about 2:00 PM on the mobile net, and when thing started working again it hammered in with notifications from news media about the outages at main Danish tele carrier TDC.

 

Notifications from news media about all police staff at work to do work in cars ordered on the street. The defense emergency service activated, and sent on the streets.

 

About 7:15 PM all telecom reported reported back to normal.

 

Trains running again, but with delays and cancellations the rest of the day. Expected normal operations tomorrow.

 

No real explanation to get from anywhere about it, and about if these events with telecom and railroad were systemically connected. Just silence ...

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

What?

[changegonnacome]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Target the Russian oil exports via the shadow fleet. Russia war funding comes from selling crude.  Russian Oil will always find a way to leak out so the game is to reduce the amount force them to sell it very very cheap.

 

I hope they do. The economy really needs to be brought to its knees there to create the right conditions for some sort of settlement next year.........cause every report I'm reading right now from the front lines is bleak....... showing a Red Army on the march and clearly in the ascendency....by contrast Ukrainian reports are of relentless shortages of artillery, men and moral........some 50 ATCAMS, for all the talk, are not changing the overall trajectory of what is fundamentally a ground war.....there is very little military incentive right now for Russia to come to the negotiating table on January 20th....increasing economic pain on Russia is now the most viable pathway through which the West can help Ukraine (& itself) save face with a deal that may be defensible relative to all the hot air spewed in 2022.

[Luke]

 

 

Boris Johnson admitting its a proxy war in ukraine.

[dwy000]

Having the Syrian army disintegrate on contact shows how much Putin has had to pull out of the region to support his Ukraine efforts.  

[John Hjorth]

Interfax - Economy [December 2^nd 2024] : The former assets of Carlsberg in the Russian Federation were withdrawn from the temporary government.

 

I wonder what this really means. It's all over the place in Danish News Media now. No Press Release from Carlsberg about it, Somehow someone from Carlsberg has informed, that it's aware of the decree, too, and is chewing on it. First simply just stealing a beer brewery, and then delivering it back? Has somebody been drinking from the night pot? - Or too much vodka? 

[UK]

23 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Interfax - Economy [December 2^nd 2024] : The former assets of Carlsberg in the Russian Federation were withdrawn from the temporary government.

 

I wonder what this really means. It's all over the place in Danish News Media now. No Press Release from Carlsberg about it, Somehow someone from Carlsberg has informed, that it's aware of the decree, too, and is chewing on it. First simply just stealing a beer brewery, and then delivering it back? Has somebody been drinking from the night pot? - Or too much vodka? 

 

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiverussia-approves-320-million-sale-of-carlsberg-assets-to-local-businessmen-document-shows-3750593

 

Some compensation I guess...rule of law:))

 

Edited December 3 by UK

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/12/02/how-ukraine-uses-cheap-ai-guided-drones-to-deadly-effect-against-russia

 

[Xerxes]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crl3ndxglwxo.amp
 

 

There has been a plethora of recent articles reminiscing the “lost opportunity” of Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal. 
 

Ukraine was certainly played with the so-called guarantees in exchange for removing the nuclear weapons. No question about it. 
 

Question remains however, in my view, if Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, were actually the heir to that arsenal. It is not like that had command and control. 
 

Yet I will also add there were a large number of Soviet leaders who were Ukrainian or of Ukrainian origin. That makes in my view Ukraine equal to Belarus and Russia and above other Soviet states. The support that Ukraine provided to the Soviet cause is immeasurable, both being an engineering Center of excellence (Antonov), a breeding ground for military and political leaders as well as being the breadbasket feeding the empire. 
 

But does all these make, Ukraine, the legitimate heir to the Soviet nuclear arsenal, just by virtue of having a significant part of the arsenal physically located there ?
 

What do board member think 

 

Not completely unrelated, I recall reading that the gas pipelines in Armenia are owned by the Russian State. Another legacy of the rapid collapse of the Soviet Union and freezing of status quo. 

[Luke]

 

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, Luke [ @Luke ]!,

 

This is certainly an interesting interview of Sergey Lavrov, to chew on, meticously in bites, over some days. I did not know he was able to speak English, his English is actually quite good. To me, it's a totally different experience - more 'direct', I would say,  than experiencing him speaking Russian, combined with a translation.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

YouTube : Anders Puck Nielsen [November 26^th 2024] : What is a long-range missile? – The hysteria about ATACMS and Storm Shadow.

 

 

Edited December 6 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Pretty fast collapse of the Russian and Hezbollah supported Assad regime. They both have other issues to tend to, it seems, so Assad is left hanging.

 

Edited December 7 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

21 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Pretty fast collapse of the Russian and Hezbollah supported Assad regime. They both have other issues to tend to, it seems, so Assad is left hanging.

 

Among scumbags certain very special rules rule. The first of the unwritten rules among such friends is that there aren't any. The second and secondary is that you never let a good friend left behind hanging. It's all about logic.

[cubsfan]

24 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Among scumbags certain very special rules rule. The first of the unwritten rules among such friends is that there aren't any. The second and secondary is that you never let a good friend left behind hanging. It's all about logic.

 

Yup, maybe they will wipe each other out. 

[Dinar]

I am not sure that the collapse of Assad's regime is good for the West, or the Christians in Syria.

[John Hjorth]

6 hours ago, Dinar said:

I am not sure that the collapse of Assad's regime is good for the West, or the Christians in Syria.

 

I agree, @Dinar,

 

Reuters [December 7^th 2024] : Syrian rebels topple President Assad, prime minister calls for free elections.

 

Likely he would go with his family to Iran or Russia, I don't think he is welcome elsewhere. He has three kids, likely must be youngsters by now. His wife Asma al-Assad is sick with leukemia diagnosed in May 2024. My guess would be Russia. Please note the information about the maneuvers of the plane after take off, which really don't exclude a plane crash, otherwise indicates a transponder shut-down.

Edited December 8 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

The enemy of your enemy isn’t necessarily your friend. The applies to the Syria situation. I think we still have some troops there but this isn’t our fight.

It does show that the Russians and Hezbollah are weakened and need to focus on core operations in Management lingo.

 

Turkey plays a hand there as they want to become a local hegemon.

Edited December 8 by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The enemy of your enemy isn’t necessarily your friend. The applies to the Syria situation. I think we still have some troops there but this isn’t our fight.

It does show that the Russians and Hezbollah are weakened and need to focus on core operations in Management lingo.

 

Turkey plays a hand there as they want to become a local hegemon.

Assad was never an enemy of the West.  Had Obama & Co not betrayed and killed Quadaffi, there was a chance to turn Assad into an asset.  In any case, in my book, a sybarite is usually less dangerous than fanatics.