Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

No posts today really commenting on what's at the core, for building an Ukraine for the future :

 

The Ukranie people and population [in the by Russia occupied areas and regions] is for it self, to decide its future! [If you really disagree about that, please post about it specifically in this topic!]

 

That part of the Ukranian population in the by Russia occupied areas isen't some kind of 'live stock', available as a bargain or leverage for whoever may want to rule.

 

The very hort version of it : *MIAWIU* ['I'm my own', 'I own my self']

Edited August 25 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

John 

I don’t have anything intelligent as answer on your question other than pointing out that there is also a significant ethnic Russian population in Crimea and that they are also not “livestock”. 
 

The question has to go to both ethnic side of former and current Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories. 

[John Hjorth]

On 8/23/2024 at 9:03 PM, Xerxes said:

John 

I don’t have anything intelligent as answer on your question other than pointing out that there is also a significant ethnic Russian population in Crimea and that they are also not “livestock”. 
 

The question has to go to both ethnic side of former and current Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories. 

 

Thanks, @Xerxes ,

 

I [naturally] agree on your nuances of changes to my own statement, as posted by you above.

Edited August 25 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

20 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

John 

I don’t have anything intelligent as answer on your question other than pointing out that there is also a significant ethnic Russian population in Crimea and that they are also not “livestock”. 
 

The question has to go to both ethnic side of former and current Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories. 

 

In fact it does not appear to be so complicated, by now solved by a similar democratic process, by  now more than  a hundred years ago in the Northern Europe :

 

Wikipedia : 1920 Schleswig plebiscites [<- If one think carefullly about it, how difficult is this ? ]

 

Where there is will, there is a way.  [Cons are called at their bluffs, and all other kinds of *BS* - commit, or not. -Period. -Always works.]

Edited August 23 by John Hjorth

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

The Ukranie people and population [in the by Russia occupied areas and regions] is for it self, to decide its future! [If you really disagree about that, please post about it specifically in this topic!]

 

That part of the Ukranian population in the by Russia occupied areas isen't some kind of 'live stock', available as a bargain or leverage for whoever may want to rule.

Well, its for western countries to discuss because they receive billions of dollars and military support by them. If that stops they are free to do whatever they want of course. 

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

There has been a certain element of the Western security establishment that have always been eager to collapse’ Russian territorial integrity, at any cost. It is a personal accomplishment for them, if they could pull it off. 
 

Goes back to the days Disraeli, maybe Gladstone, the Great Game, the Crimean War etc.

 

Sure - I mean the oldest defense is to have a good offense.....when Europe isn't fighting amongst itself......the Red mist becomes the boogie man to worry about.

 

The post-1994 dream might have seen the EEA, if not the EU expand Eastward to econcompass both Ukraine & Russia.......Europe's lack of energy (but industrial knowhow) and Russia's energy riches are natural bedfellows...they could and should be best of friends...like the USA and Canada are....but they aren't.

 

I know many on this thread can't quite believe that the US would be so viciously pragmatic in its overseas defense strategy.....but a strategy of keeping Western Europe & Russia apart which IMO has underpinned the post-Cold War era.....is an important and ultimately clever case of divide and co-opt.....a combined EU-Russia has hell of alot of things going for it as an economic & regional powerhouse.......and an economic powerhouses are but a step away (as we see with China) from being another type of powerhouse that global superpower might worry about.......the big problem for the US is they've scored a HUGE own goal by over-egging this strategy.

 

The greatest tragedy yet to be realized coming out of the Ukrainian situation is by pushing Russia so firmly into China's grip.... we've effectively handed resource deficient China direct access to enough oil and natural gas for a thousand years. The billions we've sent to Ukraine in aid....is not the true cost of this war........the true cost is making China & Russia two peas in a pod.....not today.....but we'll rue that outcome in years to come.

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Sure - I mean the oldest defense is to have a good offense.....when Europe isn't fighting amongst itself......the Red mist becomes the boogie man to worry about.

 

The post-1994 dream might have seen the EEA, if not the EU expand Eastward to econcompass both Ukraine & Russia.......Europe's lack of energy (but industrial knowhow) and Russia's energy riches are natural bedfellows...they could and should be best of friends...like the USA and Canada are....but they aren't.

 

I know many on this thread can't quite believe that the US would be so viciously pragmatic in its overseas defense strategy.....but a strategy of keeping Western Europe & Russia apart which IMO has underpinned the post-Cold War era.....is an important and ultimately clever case of divide and co-opt.....a combined EU-Russia has hell of alot of things going for it as an economic & regional powerhouse.......and an economic powerhouses are but a step away (as we see with China) from being another type of powerhouse that global superpower might worry about.......the big problem for the US is they've scored a HUGE own goal by over-egging this strategy.

 

The greatest tragedy yet to be realized coming out of the Ukrainian situation is by pushing Russia so firmly into China's grip.... we've effectively handed resource deficient China direct access to enough oil and natural gas for a thousand years. The billions we've sent to Ukraine in aid....is not the true cost of this war........the true cost is making China & Russia two peas in a pod.....not today.....but we'll rue that outcome in years to come.

NOW the Nr.1 "enemy" of the US has Russia as a friend, building happy pipelines and sending boatloads of resources for the manufacturing powerhouse China...loss for Europe, win for China, even more problematic situation for the US as you well said...

 

Disaster economically for Europe.  

[Luke]

The countries that will have a geopolitical impact will be the countries that have the greatest wealth and technology creation. Europe is essentially now a corpse feeding off of legacy industrial businesses. It's really unfortunate. Especially the climate change targets and Russia cut-off will be the end off their competitiveness for a long long time. Id bet on the US and China doing well over time even with all the fear mongering. There will be a lot more growth in China than in the US...and valuations are cheaper too...time will tell...

[Luke]

Is that why they fight so hard about ukraine too? Large coal reserves, natural gas, other minerals, lithium etc? 

 

 

Edited August 23 by Luke

[Xerxes]

Pretty good. 
Sam B. is always a good listen. 

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/russian-roulette/id1112258664?i=1000666396079

 

[cubsfan]

20 minutes ago, Luke said:

The countries that will have a geopolitical impact will be the countries that have the greatest wealth and technology creation. Europe is essentially now a corpse feeding off of legacy industrial businesses. It's really unfortunate. Especially the climate change targets and Russia cut-off will be the end off their competitiveness for a long long time. Id bet on the US and China doing well over time even with all the fear mongering. There will be a lot more growth in China than in the US...and valuations are cheaper too...time will tell...

 

Tough to say. Most of the innovation happens in the US. With a new President we may see a resurgence in economic leadership. But to your point about China growth - they are really very good at stealing technology and patents - so have to give them that. Valuations in China will stay cheap until President Xi stops scaring off international investors. 

[UK]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3898338-zelensky-no-sick-old-man-from-red-square-will-dictate-any-of-his-red-lines-to-ukraine-and-the-ukrainians.html

 

"The sick old man from Red Square, who constantly threatens everyone with a red button, will not dictate any of his red lines to us. How we live, which path we take, and what choices we make will be determined only by Ukraine and Ukrainians. That is how independence works," Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy recorded a video address from the Sumy region, near the Psel River a few kilometers from the border with Russia. "The border between an independent European state and the number-one terrorist organization in the world. 913 days ago, Russia launched a war against us, including through the Sumy region. It violated not only sovereign borders but also the limits of cruelty and common sense. Its endless goal was one thing: to destroy us. Today, however, we are celebrating Ukraine's 33rd Independence Day. What the enemy brought to our land has now returned to its own home. And those who wanted to turn our lands into a buffer zone must now consider that their country might become a buffer federation," the President said. “Ukrainians always return their debts. And the one who wished a disaster on our land will see it at own home, with interest added. Whoever wants to sow evil on our land will reap its fruits on own territory," Zelensky went on to say.

 

Lannisters always pays their debts:)

 

Edited August 24 by UK

[changegonnacome]

25 minutes ago, UK said:

"what choices we make will be determined only by Ukraine and Ukrainians. That is how independence works,"

 

In one sentence - Zelensky kind of sums up how he contributed to getting his country into the desperate situation its in today...and it seems like the cause is his complete lack of pragmatism...the above is a nice sound bite..........but the reality is that independence & sovereignty.....are ideals that once they leap off the page are constrained by reality & realpolitik.....Ukraine is independent...in the same way that Canada is independent & free.....but like Ukraine, Canadian sovereignty is constrained by its geographic position & power dynamics of its neighbour.........for example......Canada is technically free to host Chinese military bases in Ottawa if it wishes.....in reality that can never happen....or it can happen but only temporarily....which is kind of the same thing.

 

Zelensky's extreme pivot to the West and outright rejection of the East....was a terribly poor demonstration of political leadership....pragmatism might be the single most important quality in a political leader.......idealism will get thousands of your fellow countrymen killed.

 

As we get further into this war.....with Russia making recent territorial gains into the Donbass.......while Ukraine drives tanks around empty fields a few hundred miles north in Kursk.......I hope we in the West help Zelensky with his pragmatism skills.......a small country sandwiched between two opposing political/military systems....should be eating pragmatism for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

[UK]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

In one sentence - Zelensky kind of sums up how he contributed to getting his country into the desperate situation its in today...and it seems like the cause is his complete lack of pragmatism...the above is a nice sound bite..........but the reality is that independence & sovereignty.....are ideals that once they leap off the page are constrained by reality & realpolitik.....Ukraine is independent...in the same way that Canada is independent & free.....but like Ukraine, Canadian sovereignty is constrained by its geographic position & power dynamics of its neighbour.........for example......Canada is technically free to host Chinese military bases in Ottawa if it wishes.....in reality that can never happen....or it can happen but only temporarily....which is kind of the same thing.

 

Zelensky's extreme pivot to the West and outright rejection of the East....was a terribly poor demonstration of political leadership....pragmatism might be the single most important quality in a political leader.......idealism will get thousands of your fellow countrymen killed.

 

As we get further into this war.....with Russia making recent territorial gains into the Donbass.......while Ukraine drives tanks around empty fields a few hundred miles north in Kursk.......I hope we in the West help Zelensky with his pragmatism skills.......a small country sandwiched between two opposing political/military systems....should be eating pragmatism for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

 

I posted this because this sounded good...and right. Look, I get all this realpolitik talk, but I also lived through the something very simillar in my own country. All world, from Nelson Mandela to who not, were lecturing us and warning not to mess with USSR for our own and greater good. Of course one can say that we just got lucky. As we did. But you also do not have a chance of luck, without even trying. Shorter version: my mind is much closer to your position, but this is not a place my heart is:)

[John Hjorth]

On 8/20/2024 at 2:53 AM, ValueArb said:

...  The day some actual pipeline experts detail why the maintenance failure theory can't be true I'll happily abandon it. ..

 

@ValueArb,

 

The colunm leader I posted and translated earlier and upstream in this topic for the readers here on CoBF [likely written by JP editor in chief Marchen Geertsen], was for informational purposes, describing a public sentiment here in a Northern European country, very precisely describing a public sentiment in an open democracy, about the elected people with polical power and responsibilities are withholding material information about the truth from their constituents, which is from a democratic and constitutional point of view is more than problematic [,also meaning : What I posted wasen't an expression of my own opinion.].

 

With regard to the above quoted line of yours, you just have to remember, recall and look up the photos taken of the damages to the pipelines, taken after the damages happened. 

 

The photos back then indicated clearly that this was about explosions from outside the tubes, direction inbound tubes to destruct pipeline integrity, not the other direction.

Edited August 24 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

16 hours ago, Luke said:

Is that why they fight so hard about ukraine too? Large coal reserves, natural gas, other minerals, lithium etc? 

 

@Luke,

 

What is left of Ukraine, if every structure above ground is demolished to rubble by warfare? :

 

- Enormous areas of fertile and productive agricultural land. It's called the grain chamber of Europe.

 

Just for reference, the economic value of agricultural land in Denmark is approx. ~DKK 200,000 [on avarage] per hectare. [One hectare is 10,000 m², equals 100 m x 100 m area]

Edited August 24 by John Hjorth
Spelling

[Libs]

3 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

In one sentence - Zelensky kind of sums up how he contributed to getting his country into the desperate situation its in today...and it seems like the cause is his complete lack of pragmatism...the above is a nice sound bite..........but the reality is that independence & sovereignty.....are ideals that once they leap off the page are constrained by reality & realpolitik.....Ukraine is independent...in the same way that Canada is independent & free.....but like Ukraine, Canadian sovereignty is constrained by its geographic position & power dynamics of its neighbour.........for example......Canada is technically free to host Chinese military bases in Ottawa if it wishes.....in reality that can never happen....or it can happen but only temporarily....which is kind of the same thing.

 

Zelensky's extreme pivot to the West and outright rejection of the East....was a terribly poor demonstration of political leadership....pragmatism might be the single most important quality in a political leader.......idealism will get thousands of your fellow countrymen killed.

 

As we get further into this war.....with Russia making recent territorial gains into the Donbass.......while Ukraine drives tanks around empty fields a few hundred miles north in Kursk.......I hope we in the West help Zelensky with his pragmatism skills.......a small country sandwiched between two opposing political/military systems....should be eating pragmatism for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

 

You make some good points but I can't help reflecting that if Churchill had been this wise and pragmatic, England would have cut a deal with Hitler in 1941 to stay out of the war. The pressure to do so was almost overwhelming. But Churchill knew it would only buy time, and Germany would basically own England once it completed its other goals. 

 

Ukraine being 'pragmatic' at this point probably means slow suffocation and eventual extermination by Russia. But this move into Russia could change the equation. It makes Putin look really bad to his countrymen. I can't fault Zelensky for this action. I find it inspiring.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

5 minutes ago, Libs said:

 

You make some good points but I can't help reflecting that if Churchill had been this wise and pragmatic, England would have cut a deal with Hitler in 1941 to stay out of the war. The pressure to do so was almost overwhelming. But Churchill knew it would only buy time, and Germany would basically own England once it completed its other goals. 

 

Ukraine being 'pragmatic' at this point probably means slow suffocation and eventual extermination by Russia. But this move into Russia could change the equation. It makes Putin look really bad to his countrymen. I can't fault Zelensky for this action. I find it inspiring.

 

 

 

Thank you, very good post and points, @Libs ,

 

And with regard to values, what does Russia actually by now 'offer' to it's 'acquisition candidates' ? Personally, I do not see anything but eternal exploitation, not even with a long lense.

[Spekulatius]

Any deal with Putin will be no more than a temporary truce during which he plans his next move, imo.

 

I think it’s fallacy to believe Putin only wants the Donbas. 10 years ago, people though the same thing about the Crimea. The fight will continue in some way as long as he is there.

 

I do think the sanctions and isolation will degrade Russia into a North Korean hellhole over time, but it will take decades.

45 minutes ago, Libs said:

 

You make some good points but I can't help reflecting that if Churchill had been this wise and pragmatic, England would have cut a deal with Hitler in 1941 to stay out of the war. The pressure to do so was almost overwhelming. But Churchill knew it would only buy time, and Germany would basically own England once it completed its other goals. 

 

Ukraine being 'pragmatic' at this point probably means slow suffocation and eventual extermination by Russia. But this move into Russia could change the equation. It makes Putin look really bad to his countrymen. I can't fault Zelensky for this action. I find it inspiring.

 

 

It’s also not driving tanks through empty land. The incursion has disrupted life for hundred throws and of Russians in three oblasts, which have become a war zone with evacuations etc. Also, it seems now that up to 3000 Russian soldiers are trapped in a salient due to all the bridges being bombed with no way to go which means that Russia loses another chunk of land and perhaps an brigade worth of material and troops.

[Luke]

26 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I do think the sanctions and isolation will degrade Russia into a North Korean hellhole over time, but it will take decades.

It’s also not driving tanks through empty land. The incursion has disrupted life for hundred throws and of Russians in three oblasts, which have become a war zone with evacuations etc. Also, it seems now that up to 3000 Russian soldiers are trapped in a salient due to all the bridges being bombed with no way to go which means that Russia loses another chunk of land and perhaps an brigade worth of material and troops.

Which isolation? They ship all their produce, get tons of produce over third party countries? West even still imports russian natural resources over middle men. Then they have china as a powerhouse which can basically deliver anything. Dont you find "developing into a hellhole" quite the stretch? In the bigger russian countries this invasion by ukraine isn't talked about much, far away and very rural. But in the media they make it seem like its a huge victory.

 

 

[Luke]

28 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Any deal with Putin will be no more than a temporary truce during which he plans his next move, imo.

So whats the plan? Please be specific. Also for you @ValueArb What are you going to do about the situation, how can it be fixed realistically. Its easy to throw out some slogans but how are you gonna accomplish recovery of the eastern region while not further escalating the conflict leading into a total European war? Do you think civilians in the US would support sending US citizens and even more dollars to this country thousands of miles away?  

[Luke]

5 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

In one sentence - Zelensky kind of sums up how he contributed to getting his country into the desperate situation its in today...and it seems like the cause is his complete lack of pragmatism...the above is a nice sound bite..........but the reality is that independence & sovereignty.....are ideals that once they leap off the page are constrained by reality & realpolitik.....Ukraine is independent...in the same way that Canada is independent & free.....but like Ukraine, Canadian sovereignty is constrained by its geographic position & power dynamics of its neighbour.........for example......Canada is technically free to host Chinese military bases in Ottawa if it wishes.....in reality that can never happen....or it can happen but only temporarily....which is kind of the same thing.

 

Zelensky's extreme pivot to the West and outright rejection of the East....was a terribly poor demonstration of political leadership....pragmatism might be the single most important quality in a political leader.......idealism will get thousands of your fellow countrymen killed.

 

As we get further into this war.....with Russia making recent territorial gains into the Donbass.......while Ukraine drives tanks around empty fields a few hundred miles north in Kursk.......I hope we in the West help Zelensky with his pragmatism skills.......a small country sandwiched between two opposing political/military systems....should be eating pragmatism for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

This is exactly how I see it too. 

[Spekulatius]

@Luke I believe the right plan should be to supply Ukraine with everything it needs to succeed against Russia. To be specific I am talking a bit huge casualties in military as well as degrading Russian infrastructure with long range weapons (destroying the Kerch bridge would be a start) as well as blkcing  the Black Sea via long range weapons.

 

If Russia then continues, their economy will convert into a war economy which means everything will just be means to feed the military. I think this is something that is happening anyways but it could be forced much faster.

 

The Kursk incursion idea is to force Russia to act a to pull military units from the Donbas. So then the fight occurs on Ukraine’s terms not Russians.

 

It’s funny when people say Ukraine should just give up Donbas basically because Putin wants it. What if Putin says, the deal with a Russia to buy Alaska is invalid and unfair and Alaska really belongs to Russia. Who cares about Alaska anyways, is it worth risking the lives of  100,000 US troops there? Maybe Putin is right and Russia made an unfair deal,  after all they discovered it first?

If we give it back to him, it will be all he good. 

 

However, I make a bet that the US would be willing to sacrifice 100,000 troops if need to be to guard its territorial integrity. So will most other counties if forced.

Edited August 24 by Spekulatius

[Luke]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

@Luke I believe the right plan should be to supply Ukraine with everything it needs to succeed against Russia.

How can they succeed against a country that has 10x+ the vehicle count, 3x the military size, way more resources, and ultimately nuclear weapons? 

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

To be specific I am talking a bit huge casualties in military as well as degrading Russian infrastructure with long range weapons (destroying the Kerch bridge would be a start) as well as blkcing  the Black Sea via long range weapons.

The more they threaten Russia or destroy infrastructure the more severe and cruel the response will be. 

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

If Russia then continues, their economy will convert into a war economy which means everything will just be means to feed the military. I think this is something that is happening anyways but it could be forced much faster.

As will Ukraine's economy which is way smaller and in a way worse shape. Russia has a way longer breath. 

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The Kursk incursion idea is to force Russia to act a to pull military units from the Donbas. So then the fight occurs on Ukraine’s terms not Russians.

Okay, so Ukraine was not able to capture back eastern Ukraine so now they use their already small-sized military to get into rural Russia and do what? Why wouldn't Russia just move forward to Kiev in that case? What are they gonna do with kursk when they are leaving their life supply? 

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

It’s funny when people say Ukraine should just give up Donbas basically because Putin wants it.

Literally nobody says that. Its about choices and realistic chances. They wont win against Russia without direct interference of foreign military. Are you fighting till nobodies left or cut a deal? 

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

What if Putin says, the deal with a Russia to buy Alaska is invalid and unfair and Alaska really belongs to Russia. Who cares about Alaska anyways, is it worth risking the lives of  100,000 US troops there? Maybe Putin is right and Russia made an unfair deal,  after all they discovered it first?

If we give it back to him, it will be all he good. 

Totally different scenario and bad comparison. There is a realistic chance for many Ukrainians to survive and live if some adaptations are made. Only a mad men would fight till death. Nothing heroic about that either, more like suicide. 

Edited August 24 by Luke

[Luke]

I'm pretty sure that they will start using nuclear weapons in Ukraine if there is a serious risk that Russia will fall. What would be the Western response?