Russia-Ukrainian War

[formthirteen]

Quote

We spend too much time worrying about what the Russians might do. Instead, we should make them worry about what we're capable of

 

https://odessa-journal.com/general-ben-hodges-we-spend-too-much-time-worrying-about-what-the-russians-might-do-instead-we-should-make-them-worry-about-what-were-capable-of

 

This article confirmed my bias and contradicts the views of most Western leaders politicians, especially the German chancellors:

 

Gerhard Schröder

Angela Merkel

Olaf Scholz

[formthirteen]

Thrill-seekers of COBF be aware:

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-austria-spy-service-bvt-government-intelligence-wirecard-jan-marsalek-freedom-party/

 

Quote

Putin hijacked Austria’s spy service. Now he's going after its government

 

Intelligence officials suspect Wirecard COO Jan Marsalek of colluding with the far-right Freedom Party on Moscow’s behalf.

 

Quote

Like many an espionage career, Marsalek’s began with what is known in the trade as a “honeytrap.” A lifelong bachelor with a reputation as a thrill seeker (one of his Russian handlers later took him to Palmyra in Syria to see the war there up close), Marsalek, then in his mid-30s, was ripe for the taking.

 

Her name was “Natasha.” An erotic model who had once played a Russian agent in a vampire B-movie called “Red Lips II-Blood Lust,” Natasha, aka Natalia Zlobina, met Marsalek in 2013.

 

[ValueArb]

LazerPig is youtube military historian who specializes in debunking popular beliefs about specific military systems (he's done videos on how the T-34, the T-14 Armata Tank, most Nazi tanks and the A-10 all sucked or suck, the F-35 & Chieftain are actually very good, and the Fighter Mafia was way wrong on Stealth). He also does some very good analysis on strategy/ukraine.

 

This video he's branched out into a political analysis of Putin. It's an hour long but I found his perspective interesting. Most specifically Lazerpig believes that Putin is insulated from reality, fed misinformation about Ukraine by his own supplicants that he actually believes (its full of Nazis, Ukrainians will greet Russians like liberators), and that Putin has always believed in a grand western conspiracy to spread Color Revolution (democratic rebellions against autocratic governments), and that this explains his attempts to manipulate western elections and push divisive political movements like Brexit, Scottish Independence, and MAGA. 

 

It does make a certain amount of sense that a man who spent his entire career before politics planning and executing anti-western psy-ops (and assassination plots) believes that western nations are in a grand conspiracy to bring him and his allies down with elaborate psy-ops and assassination plots.

 

 

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

LazerPig is youtube military historian who specializes in debunking popular beliefs about specific military systems (he's done videos on how the T-34, the T-14 Armata Tank, most Nazi tanks and the A-10 all sucked or suck, the F-35 & Chieftain are actually very good, and the Fighter Mafia was way wrong on Stealth). He also does some very good analysis on strategy/ukraine.

 

This video he's branched out into a political analysis of Putin. It's an hour long but I found his perspective interesting. Most specifically Lazerpig believes that Putin is insulated from reality, fed misinformation about Ukraine by his own supplicants that he actually believes (its full of Nazis, Ukrainians will greet Russians like liberators), and that Putin has always believed in a grand western conspiracy to spread Color Revolution (democratic rebellions against autocratic governments), and that this explains his attempts to manipulate western elections and push divisive political movements like Brexit, Scottish Independence, and MAGA. 

 

It does make a certain amount of sense that a man who spent his entire career before politics planning and executing anti-western psy-ops (and assassination plots) believes that western nations are in a grand conspiracy to bring him and his allies down with elaborate psy-ops and assassination plots.

 

 

Why would a Youtuber know more about the situation in Ukraine/Russia than the head of a 2T economy and developed nation with international alliances with China etc that all (incl. Russia) have extensive secret service operations and information streams that are vastly superior to Lazer Pig? 

[Luke]

At this point it's ridiculous. Youtubers are telling us now that they know what's wrong with Putin and that Putin has no control and correct information and he debunked him now and I can watch this information straight from my couch? 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

I have to give it to the guy, Putin must be the happiest person right now. Nobody cares about Ukraine anymore, while everyone watched Palestine, this guy appeases his allies in the Middle East while continuing what he is doing on the western front. Biggest winner here imo after weapon manufacturers.

Edited May 29 by whatstheofficerproblem

[Xerxes]

About a year later. Remember the big powwow about Abrams. 
 

Koffman said at the time, Abrams gets an outsize share of media attention but Ukraine doesn’t need that. It needs M2, M113 and such. 
 

The video below includes interview with Ukrainian drivers of Abrams. They look and sound dismayed on how irrelevant Abrams is outside NATO/Western doctrine without massive aerial superiority and such. 
 

I am not expert on the topic, but recall describing Abrams as lumbering beasts of a bygone age, somewhere in this thread. 
 

You want to talk about YouTubers, just go back to whatever everyone said in 2022, 23 and 24. A point of view is a static snapshot of how things are seen here and now. And becomes obsolete as time moves forward. 

The Ukrainian user of Abrams complained about that it is not usable in the age of drones.
 

Dare I say, are we witnessing the end of age of “dreadnaughts”. There will always be a use for armoured vehicles but a gas-turbine powered giant prone to breakdown and without Western finely-tuned logistics, I am not so sure.  

 

 

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

Why would a Youtuber know more about the situation in Ukraine/Russia than the head of a 2T economy and developed nation with international alliances with China etc that all (incl. Russia) have extensive secret service operations and information streams that are vastly superior to Lazer Pig? 

 

I stand corrected. Putin was clearly well informed when he thought Ukrainians would greet Russian troops as liberators, that the special operation would only take three days, that their logistics were adequate, that their trucks were well maintained, that their troops were well trained, led and motivated, that their navy would dominate the black sea against an opponent without a navy, that their air bases and oil refineries were safe from drone attacks, and that the EU/UK/US wouldn't lift a finger to help Ukraine.

 

I'll make sure not to share any alternative points of view in the future, esp. from youtubers no matter how well informed they've been on military topics.

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

About a year later. Remember the big powwow about Abrams. 
 

Koffman said at the time, Abrams gets an outsize share of media attention but Ukraine doesn’t need that. It needs M2, M113 and such. 
 

The video below includes interview with Ukrainian drivers of Abrams. They look and sound dismayed on how irrelevant Abrams is outside NATO/Western doctrine without massive aerial superiority and such. 
 

I am not expert on the topic, but recall describing Abrams as lumbering beasts of a bygone age, somewhere in this thread. 
 

You want to talk about YouTubers, just go back to whatever everyone said in 2022, 23 and 24. A point of view is a static snapshot of how things are seen here and now. And becomes obsolete as time moves forward. 

The Ukrainian user of Abrams complained about that it is not usable in the age of drones.
 

Dare I say, are we witnessing the end of age of “dreadnaughts”. There will always be a use for armoured vehicles but a gas-turbine powered giant prone to breakdown and without Western finely-tuned logistics, I am not so sure.  

 

 

 

Most reports I've seen say the Abrams has performed exceedingly well in the Ukraine. Sure, drones are a problem but they are bigger problems if you don't have tanks.

 

Tanks are meant to go into dangerous areas and protect their crews while raining down heavy fire on protected positions. No tank has ever been immune to anti-tank weapons, the question is how tough is it and how safe is it. Ideally when one is knocked out, it saves the crew and can be repaired and returned to service. Again, the reports I've seen say Abrams been outstanding at crew protection.

 

And "prone to breakdowns"? The Abrams is very tough, its engine can use a variety of fuels and run far longer than its typical western maintenance intervals.  US Abrams crews have commented on how much longer the engine can go between rebuilds than its specifications. We have at least a thousand first gen Abrams rotting away in our depots, and they should all be serviced and sent to Ukraine. 

[Luke]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

I stand corrected. Putin was clearly well informed when he thought Ukrainians would greet Russian troops as liberators, that the special operation would only take three days, that their logistics were adequate, that their trucks were well maintained, that their troops were well trained, led and motivated, that their navy would dominate the black sea against an opponent without a navy, that their air bases and oil refineries were safe from drone attacks, and that the EU/UK/US wouldn't lift a finger to help Ukraine.

 

I'll make sure not to share any alternative points of view in the future, esp. from youtubers no matter how well informed they've been on military topics.

Who knows what his plans and thoughts were. He certainly achieved taking over the regions. Find it a bit odd to take youtubers serious who claim to debunk Putin and how dumb he is, little informed etc all straight out of their mothers basement

[formthirteen]

 

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

surely he means the game 

 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

Most reports I've seen say the Abrams has performed exceedingly well in the Ukraine. Sure, drones are a problem but they are bigger problems if you don't have tanks.

 

Tanks are meant to go into dangerous areas and protect their crews while raining down heavy fire on protected positions. No tank has ever been immune to anti-tank weapons, the question is how tough is it and how safe is it. Ideally when one is knocked out, it saves the crew and can be repaired and returned to service. Again, the reports I've seen say Abrams been outstanding at crew protection.

 

And "prone to breakdowns"? The Abrams is very tough, its engine can use a variety of fuels and run far longer than its typical western maintenance intervals.  US Abrams crews have commented on how much longer the engine can go between rebuilds than its specifications. We have at least a thousand first gen Abrams rotting away in our depots, and they should all be serviced and sent to Ukraine. 

make sense. Between having or not having them, having the them is the one you go with. 
 

But when it comes to prioritizing what is important, were they that important back in 2023. Or were they more of a trophy symbolic gesture. 
 

 

[ValueArb]

25 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

make sense. Between having or not having them, having the them is the one you go with. 
 

But when it comes to prioritizing what is important, were they that important back in 2023. Or were they more of a trophy symbolic gesture. 
 

 

 

I'm not a military expert. But I would definitely prioritize Bradleys over Abrams. They are very capable against Russian tanks on their own, cheaper, easier to maintain, lighter so they can go more places and far more useful since they carry troops. 

 

A big tank with a big gun like Abrams/Challenger is really designed to be used is on large areas of open ground where they can see and destroy targets thousands of yards away. Using them in heavily defended areas with minefields, trenches, or urban combat usually requires moving with infantry to keep them from getting ambushed. The closer the defenders are the easier it is for their weapons to penetrate. 

 

If Ukraine had a break-through situation where squads of tanks poured freely into large unprepared fields behind the lines, tanks would get much more important. They could move at relatively high speeds that would make them harder to target with artillery and drones, and destroy enemy positions from miles away before the enemy is even prepared for them. 

 

The Bradley seems to work better in dense combat areas like urban areas. Its auto cannon is more than enough to suppress most targets, while troops can use it for cover as they exit the back and then work to flank the enemy position. And when they run into a Russian tank, they blind it using the auto cannon to paint it with a high volume of rounds so they can run away or setup to take it out with a TOW.

Edited May 29 by ValueArb

[ValueArb]

50 minutes ago, Luca said:

Who knows what his plans and thoughts were. He certainly achieved taking over the regions. Find it a bit odd to take youtubers serious who claim to debunk Putin and how dumb he is, little informed etc all straight out of their mothers basement

 

Yea, Putin went from controlling Crimea so he could have deep water ports for the Black Sea fleet and 10% of Ukraine (the Donbas), to controlling Crimea and 15% of Ukraine, all at a cost of only a half million men, most of his modern tanks, 10% of his air force and nearly half the Black Sea fleet sunk or disabled. All while being trapped in a Vietnam like debacle for three years he can't get out of lest he risk being overthrown. 

 

Thats a level of genius that even a youtuber in his mothers basement could not comprehend, i'll give you that. 

 

Best part of the video is in the comments. Putin and Russians love to compare themselves to manly Spartans defending civilization from soft woke western fems, all the while forgetting that the Spartans were ultimately crushed by Thebes and made utterly irrelevant for the remainder of history because the Spartan flanking group was eviscerated by Thebe's Sacred Band, made up of 300 gay lovers who were the real baddest warriors in Greece.

[Xerxes]

Thanks ValueArb 

[John Hjorth]

6 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Yea, Putin went from controlling Crimea so he could have deep water ports for the Black Sea fleet and 10% of Ukraine (the Donbas), to controlling Crimea and 15% of Ukraine, all at a cost of only a half million men, most of his modern tanks, 10% of his air force and nearly half the Black Sea fleet sunk or disabled. All while being trapped in a Vietnam like debacle for three years he can't get out of lest he risk being overthrown. 

 

Thats a level of genius that even a youtuber in his mothers basement could not comprehend, i'll give you that.

 

 - Good humor, @ValueArb,

 

Add to that the strategic loss of the Russian Northern Fleets ability to access the North Sea and the Baltic Sea [because of Sweden and Finland now NATO members], thereby the fleets access to Moscow and Stalingrad, if Russia does not behave in that area.

[Luke]

You guys should be hired as generals!! If only Putin had you in his team!! But no, he has these dumb know nothing russians fighting for him...

 

We dont know whats going on behind the scenes, one of the most supervised areas, nord stream pipeline, got blown up without any of us knowing what happened. Intelligence agencies probably know but the public wont. Was it so obvious that Ukraine would get hundreds of billions of weapons, full access to intelligence information etc considering they are a country with very high corruption? Probably not. And again, Putin has 1000x the information available that we do and it certainly wasnt as easy as "he didnt know, was just dumb and now he has the problem hehe" 

Edited May 30 by Luca

[Luke]

That nobody in europe or the west even questions 1% of motives of our countries and that our countries also couldnt be transparent is quite shocking, everybody takes what our governments say for 100% face value and Putin is just Darth Vader. Simple story...

[Dinar]

8 hours ago, Luca said:

That nobody in europe or the west even questions 1% of motives of our countries and that our countries also couldnt be transparent is quite shocking, everybody takes what our governments say for 100% face value and Putin is just Darth Vader. Simple story...

Luca, no normal human being would voluntarily join the KGB.  This is the organization that murdered tens of millions of Soviet citizens.  So when Putin came to power in 1998, I had no illusions.  Darth Vader is an angel compared to someone who would voluntarily join an organization that committed mass murder for decades on a  scale that would make Hitler seem an amateur.

[ValueArb]

8 hours ago, Luca said:

You guys should be hired as generals!! If only Putin had you in his team!! But no, he has these dumb know nothing russians fighting for him...

 

We dont know whats going on behind the scenes, one of the most supervised areas, nord stream pipeline, got blown up without any of us knowing what happened. Intelligence agencies probably know but the public wont. Was it so obvious that Ukraine would get hundreds of billions of weapons, full access to intelligence information etc considering they are a country with very high corruption? Probably not. And again, Putin has 1000x the information available that we do and it certainly wasnt as easy as "he didnt know, was just dumb and now he has the problem hehe" 

 

Good investors investigate their mistakes in search of biases and poor thought processes. Thats not unusual, its common to investigate accidents for causes in order to prevent them in the future. To quote the esteemed philosopher William Burr "If I got bitten by a rattlesnake, wouldn't you ask questions? How did it happen? Did you not see it? Were you f-ing with it? How did a snake get so mad it almost killed you?"

 

You assert Putin has 1000x the information that we do (without justification mind you) and yet are unable to explain how Putin didn't anticipate the western response to his invasion of Ukraine, or the Ukrainian response to the invasion, or the failures of his military despite its massive advantage in men and materials.

 

The problem isn't in the volume , or even the quality of the information, its in whether it was even accepted or used. How many generals do you think stood up to Putin and said our trucks are in poor shape, our logistics terrible, our troops are poorly trained and led, our tanks are death traps, and if we don't take Kyiv quickly we'll get stuck in a quagmire, maybe for years? And then our most valuable ships in our Black Sea fleet will be at risk, our air force will suffer substantial attrition, and this new war will be fought with drones that negate much of our advantage in armor. 

 

How many do you think told him it would be a piece of cake, three days tops?

 

We weren't there but the results clearly show that Putin only listened to the 3 day generals.  If there were any who had any clear insight into the difficulties Russia would face in this invasion, their views weren't given any weight before the war. In fact they probably weren't allowed in the room. We know this because Putin has never fixed anything in two years, or changed his command structure until he finally demoted(?) Shoigu just a few weeks ago.

 

This is the all too common story of dictators. They end up surrounding themselves with loyalists out of fear of being overthrown. Loyalists always end up being yes-men and boot-lickers, because anyone who tells the boss they are wrong gets ostracized and booted out of the inner circle. Generals who complained about Putin cronies stripping their maintenance and training budgets were demoted, fired or killed years ago. The surviving generals are the ones  kept their mouth shut and agreed with Shoigu on whatever he told them to.

 

Your posts are 100% appeal to authority. Putin is in charge, so he must know more than us and can't be stupid!

 

The problem is all those thousands of GRU analysts and agents preparing reports are writing what their superiors allow to be written based on what is palatable to Shoigu so that any reports presented to Putin are consistent about one thing, its not Shoigu's fault!

 

Instead, as always it's western agents fomenting color revolution to undermine Putin and Russia.  Since Ukrainians can't be as good as Russians, the only explanation for Ukraine still standing is that NATO troops must be fighting in Ukraine! Western agents must have convinced Wagner to revolt! Most Ukrainians secretly hate Zelensky, love Putin and long to be part of Russia, but roaming UK assassination teams suppress dissent in Ukraine just like our FSB teams do in Russia! Did you know the US had germ warfare labs in Ukraine!!!!! They must be slowly poisoning our troops, by injecting bioweapons into our good soldiers vodka bottles!!!!!!!

 

So pick a lane. Either Putin has access to all the true intelligence on their failures in Ukraine, but he's just too stupid to make good decisions. Or he's not dumb, but built an organization where everyone near the top knows their political survival requires telling Putin what he wants to hear and blaming rivals for every failure. 

 

Because he's failed, utterly. Ukraine is debacle for Russia far worse than Vietnam was for the US. It simply can't be true he was given good intelligence, and made good decisions. Either his intelligence were biased and bad, his decisions were terrible, or both. 

[John Hjorth]

10 hours ago, Luca said:

That nobody in europe or the west even questions 1% of motives of our countries and that our countries also couldnt be transparent is quite shocking, everybody takes what our governments say for 100% face value and Putin is just Darth Vader. Simple story...

 

Putin is the agressor here. He thought he would get away with it. He didn't. Plain and simple. Already incurred damages to the economic future of Europe are already gigantic, and still uncontained, evolving and spreading as ripples.

 

I would really like one day to read your personal vision for Europe for the next, say 30 - 50 years in this topic, based on European values as you perceive them personally, @Luca. [  ]

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Putin is the agressor here. He thought he would get away with it. He didn't. Plain and simple. Already incurred damages to the economic future of Europe are already gigantic, and still uncontained, evolving and spreading as ripples.

 

I would really like one day to read your personal vision for Europe for the next, say 30 - 50 years in this topic, based on European values as you perceive them personally, @Luca. [  ]

It's never as simple as "Putin is the aggressor end of story". The economic damage largely comes from our fault of sanctions and now sponsoring billions of dollars to Ukraine in a War they can't win and a war where hundreds of thousands of men will die due to our weapons. If Selensky wants to fight, let him fight but don't send him more weapons. The pope said it, its time to be the bigger man and start negotiating and getting out the best for his people, which is NOT continuing this fight for more years, more deaths, and the same outcome with a worse negotiation position down the road. They will get a peace treaty, give Russia the eastern regions of which many DO want to be a part of Russia and were victims of discrimination, agree to no training with US troops, no nato training, new elections, and the war is over and they can start repairing their country. 

 

The other choice is war until the last man standing for Ukraine and then total collapse for the country after most young men are dead. Even worse, we might get drawn into this war and have to send our men too or worse, face nuclear attacks with further escalation. I don't think the citizens of European countries want war with russia (except for some crazy leaders and some military/war fans)

 

 

The united states of Europe was never admirable nor possible and every European country has smaller or very much larger different political interests that can not be represented by Brussel. So regarding European politics, there should be a lot more political power in the nations, a reduction in the membership states to the few countries that have the highest similar goals and comparable quality of life (Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, UK, Ireland (under the condition of tax haven removal)) ...german workers suffered because of Europe migration, the eastern countries accept the cheapest wages and pushed down the wages and quality of life for the locals. Countries should do politics based on their interest and not based on global geopolitical planning by US/Nato and we should not join the blockbuilding and China/Russia hostility

Edited May 30 by Luca

[Luke]

@ValueArb is probably ready to spend hundreds of billions more and push for deploying Nato/US troops and go for total war against Russia (and probably China too), which the US can do if they want (I hope @ValueArb will fight too)! 

 

Some larger german politicians are already pushing for nato troop deployment...

Edited May 30 by Luca

[Luke]

Western countries are already so involved, the US military but also EU military is side by side with Ukraine and providing intelligence services, training the troops, and giving them more and more weapons...its only a matter of time until the nuclear blast will annihilate the Ukrainian front lines

Edited May 30 by Luca