Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

if you want to have some fun look up "avdiivka russian offensive" or similar keywords. Russians get royally wrecked there. I I think they also lost a bunch of K-52 helicopters in an near frontline airport( (Berdiansk). I think the Ukrainians are grinding away with the Russian army, but progress has been slow. Perhaps winter brings some good news, once the ground is frozen.

 

Edit - here are some pics of the Himars attack on Berdiansk. love to see it:

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Pelagic]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

if you want to have some fun look up "avdiivka russian offensive" or similar keywords. Russians get royally wrecked there. I I think they also lost a bunch of K-52 helicopters in an near frontline airport. I think the Ukrainians are grinding away with the Russian army, but progress has been slow. Perhaps winter brings some good news, once the ground is frozen.

The craziest part about last nights attack on the airfield in Berdyansk is that the imminent approval and arrival into Ukraine of ATACMS missiles with cluster munitions has been talked about for the last month or so. Biden even stated that in his meeting with Zelensky a few weeks ago everything that was asked for was approved. And to top things off, the Berdyansk airfield was singled out as the prime target for this specific type of missile that was being approved - they distribute a number of sub-munitions to destroy soft skinned vehicles like trucks, aircraft, or helicopters. It remains to be seen whether the longer range single warhead version was approved which would be useful against hard targets like the Kerch bridge.

 

And yet, with numerous twitter personas talking about this very specific use case and the possibility that Russia would move their helicopters and other assets from the airfield before the missiles arrived, Russia did not. It looks like they lost around a dozen helicopters and some other vehicles including air defense assets and personnel in the strike last night.

 

Depending on how many missiles were provided just about any Russian base or logistics hub within about 150km of the front is now in range further complicating already strained Russia logistics. They'll also likely be used against Russian S-300 and 400 sites if they're in range.

[Spekulatius]

@Pelagic Looks like put the ATACMS to good use. Manufacturing date 10/1996 so 26 year old. I guess we are putting our old stock to good use. The only thing missing is  "Leroy was here" face. Love to see it.

 

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

Yeap. FIFO it is

 

[Castanza]

Anyone else confused by the US carrier presence in the Mediterranean ? We don’t have a defense treaty with Israel… also where tf is the congressional approval here? Oh wait… 

 

Wonder if the US is thinking about engaging Russian troops in Syria? Putin also very confused why US is moving into the Mediterranean. I don’t think we would engage with Iran or Lebanon (been there done that)at this point. Damascus and Aleppo airports were recently taken out. 
 

Just spitballing

 

edit: Also pretty bad timing or just a bad look for the sitting President to schedule a visit days before a ground invasion. Especially after the hospital attack if this turns out to be Israel. Talk about tying your image to an event. 
 

Anyways the Syria Russia 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Castanza

[lnofeisone]

Demonstration of force. Also, some of the US Citizens were kidnapped by HAMAS.

[Castanza]

40 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Demonstration of force. Also, some of the US Citizens were kidnapped by HAMAS.

So we bring an entire carrier fleet? I guess maybe, we do it in South Sea.
 

We have CAG and DEVGRU for hostage rescue though.  

[Xerxes]

Not only US, but Canadian citizens were kidnapped (and killed) as well by Hamas. That said we also have US and Canadian citizens (probably) that are in Gaza at the receiving end of freedom-fireworks. 

I don’t see anything in particular about the US aircraft carrier battle group. Right or wrong, it is in line with US historical alignment with Israel. 
 

Fareed Z. had two great podcasts one on CNN and one on Prof G. I highly recommend folks to listen to those. 
 

To me it is becoming more and more clear how Natan-yahoo and his government in their bid to split the Palestinians and expand settlement in the West Bank, have been following a policy of upholding Hamas while marginalizing the ruling PA (Palestinian Authority) in the West Bank. Hamas has been an asset of some sort (for lack of better word), showcasing PA impotence and undermining its leadership. The final piece would have been the Saudi peace treaty. In short, he has tried to tame and use a serpent as leverage, instead he got bitten. 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-prof-g-pod-with-scott-galloway/id1498802610?i=1000631061670

 

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/fareed-zakaria-gps/id377785090?i=1000631380057

Edited October 17, 2023 by Xerxes

[Castanza]

3 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

don’t see anything in particular about the US aircraft carrier battle group. Right or wrong, it is in line with US historical alignment with Israel. 

Probably right, easy to speculate on this stuff. 
 

In general the situation is just very complex. It’s not often there are truly right or wrong sides in war. Everyone has a reason and talks their own book. 
 

Ok sorry back to Ukraine Russia. Don’t want to derail the solid discussion that’s occurred here. Plus I don’t think Parsad wants another Israel/Palestine thread squabble which is fine. 

[Xerxes]

4 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Probably right, easy to speculate on this stuff. 
 

In general the situation is just very complex. It’s not often there are truly right or wrong sides in war. Everyone has a reason and talks their own book. 
 

Ok sorry back to Ukraine Russia. Don’t want to derail the solid discussion that’s occurred here. Plus I don’t think Parsad wants another Israel/Palestine thread squabble which is fine. 

Agreed. 
They are ALL full of it. 
 

Moving on ….
 

Putin was recently holding court in a televised 3 hr discussion (incidentally and unrelated in it he said, he likes Canadians*). In it, he made it clear how nukes are off table as the State is not threaten etc etc. however he is opening door for atomic tests. Not a direct quote. 

* I liked that part 
 

In parallel, there are talks (growing talks) about using Russian central bank reserve that are in the West to finance Ukraine rebuilt, such act was previously considered as sacrosanct. 
 

To me it seems to be we are in holding pattern waiting for the next “step change” in terms of which Rubicon being crossed, and how to answer. 
 

 

[changegonnacome]

16 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

To me it is becoming more and more clear how Natan-yahoo and his government in their bid to split the Palestinians and expand settlement in the West Bank

 

My sense now too - he is a war time leader for now....but once a moments breath can be had by the Israeli people i expect them to throw him out of power.....not only for the fact that Israeli intelligence seemed completely blind to this attack (which would be enough to warrant his resignation) but also because dividing a nation against itself when your surrounded by real enemies & threats is the lowest form & most cynical political calculation a nation's leader can engage in. 

[UK]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@Pelagic Looks like put the ATACMS to good use. Manufacturing date 10/1996 so 26 year old. I guess we are putting our old stock to good use. The only thing missing is  "Leroy was here" face. Love to see it.

 

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-decision-send-long-range-missiles-kyiv-grave-mistake-russias-envoy-2023-10-18/

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, UK said:

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-decision-send-long-range-missiles-kyiv-grave-mistake-russias-envoy-2023-10-18/

That's a great sign that the Ruzzians call it a grave mistake - shows that it hurts.

 

People want a bit more range these days:

 

 

[Castanza]

If you haven’t been following this Twitter account for Ukraine Russia you should. 
 

@OSINTtechnical

 

edit: @Xerxes @Spekulatius changes it so it reflects just the resource Should note that there are a lot of terrible OSINT accounts. There are a few good verified ones. Bellingercat is another good one. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Castanza

[Xerxes]

I thought we were stopping discussions on ME.
 

In any case, the OSIntel Twitter guy seem to be good reference to follow.

 

Too bad he wasn’t around in 2003. Collin Powell could have used a second set of eyes.
 

also don’t know how dedicated he is in continuity and not selective participation on what he feels like covering (personal biases). Not sure if he did any work on gas pipeline “incident” in the Baltics … or the aftermath of “Russian” missile hitting Poland. 

 

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I thought we were stopping discussions on ME.
 

In any case, the OSIntel Twitter guy seem to be good reference to follow.

 

Too bad he wasn’t around in 2003. Collin Powell could have used a second set of eyes.
 

also don’t know how dedicated he is in continuity and not selective participation on what he feels like covering (personal biases). Not sure if he did any work on gas pipeline “incident” in the Baltics … or the aftermath of “Russian” missile hitting Poland. 

 

yes, we should stop the ME discussion here (deleted my post). there are a few good "Osint" accounts - this is another one I follow:

 

https://twitter.com/UKikaski

Edited October 18, 2023 by Spekulatius

[ValueArb]

On 10/17/2023 at 10:32 AM, Xerxes said:

Yeap. FIFO it is

 

 

Doesn't this mean that sending Ukraine ATACMS is actually saving the US money? I mean these had to be close to the age of disposal, which isn't cheap. Sending them to Ukraine got them disposed of for free;)

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-20/latvia-says-nato-should-close-baltic-if-russia-harmed-pipeline?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

 

NATO should consider a halt to Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea if evidence emerges that the Kremlin is behind the damage to a pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia, Latvia’s president said. “The discussion should be about how we can close the Baltic Sea in order to protect our critical infrastructure” if Russia is found to be responsible, President Edgars Rinkevics told Latvia’s public broadcaster late Thursday. His office later clarified that the comments pertained to Russian shipping. President Vladimir Putin has denied that the Kremlin was involved in the pipeline rupture to the Balticconnector gas pipeline, which was discovered earlier this month. North Atlantic Treaty Organization this week dispatched mine hunters, patrol aircraft and early warning planes to the Baltic Sea to safeguard underwater infrastructure. NATO has the ability to stop shipping in the Baltic, Rinkevics said.

[Spekulatius]

This is nuts. Video shows a Russian attack in Avdiivka. Cluster bomb ammo is used here by Ukrainians. When it works, it really works:

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Spekulatius

[shhughes1116]

On 10/17/2023 at 5:16 PM, Castanza said:

Anyone else confused by the US carrier presence in the Mediterranean ? We don’t have a defense treaty with Israel… also where tf is the congressional approval here? Oh wait… 

 

Wonder if the US is thinking about engaging Russian troops in Syria? Putin also very confused why US is moving into the Mediterranean. I don’t think we would engage with Iran or Lebanon (been there done that)at this point. Damascus and Aleppo airports were recently taken out. 

 
I can think of two reasons for moving a carrier group or two into the vicinity.  
 

First, the Israeli Air Force is flying a pretty high tempo operation right now.  If things get hairy with Hezbollah in the North, I think they will be overwhelmed.  Cue up the carrier air wing.

 

second, if things get hairy with Syria or Iran, Israeli air strikes will necessitate electronic warfare support.  each air wing embarks with ~6 Growlers that fill this role.  Easier to operate these off the coast where they can maximize time airborne given the short legs of a Growler.

 

the carrier group provides options in case things go south.  And if we decide that Putin deserves a punch in the face, easy enough to do that in Syria with his “these soldiers that speak Russian and carry Russian guns aren’t really Russians” mercenary group. 

[shhughes1116]

On 10/19/2023 at 3:29 PM, ValueArb said:

 

Doesn't this mean that sending Ukraine ATACMS is actually saving the US money? I mean these had to be close to the age of disposal, which isn't cheap. Sending them to Ukraine got them disposed of for free;)

We produced about 2400 M39 ATACMS, and used about 600 across the various gulf wars and war in Afghanistan.  Some were converted to unitary warheads. The remainder are past their “expiration date” and can not be used because of our policy against using cluster munitions.  I’ll bet there are >1,000 of these left, maybe 2/3 with the shorter range. Disposal is expensive, unless you shove it down an Orc’s throat - that is gratis. 
 

I struggle to understand why we did not give these to Ukraine last year.  They don’t fit into the fighting doctrine that would be employed in a war with China.  Giving them to Ukraine earlier this year would have wrecked Russia’s ability to deploy their KA-52s as a CAS firefighting brigade.  

[cubsfan]

12 hours ago, shhughes1116 said:
 

I struggle to understand why we did not give these to Ukraine last year.  They don’t fit into the fighting doctrine that would be employed in a war with China.  Giving them to Ukraine earlier this year would have wrecked Russia’s ability to deploy their KA-52s as a CAS firefighting brigade.  

Such is the piecemeal approach of Biden’s foreign policy. Wait until things blow sky high until you do something. There is no strategy and has never been. Just look at the appeasement of Hamas.

[Spekulatius]

I am guessing we really need to give Ukraine airplanes such that they can gain at least local air superiority to win this. The current stalemate situation on the ground makes offensives difficult, so we basically have a WW1 like situation. This situation advantaging the defender  was broken in WW2 with tanks and motorized infantry but also combined warfare with air support. The later part is lacking the Ukraine forces and it shows.

 

Then we need to figure out to make more “stuff” when needed. Now everything is produces in planned lots but we have no flexibility to make more, if we run out of something. Thats hard to solve with the complexity of defense hardware, but we need to figure out a way to do it.

 

We can’t just find ourself in a situation where we lose a bunch of fighter plans and then it takes 2 years to replace them. Thats a sure fire way to lose a war, because let’s face it unless a war is totally asymmetrical , a war tends to be a drawn out affair (years, not weeks) and stuff happens that you can plan for or predict and we need to be prepared for that. I think the plan to invested $50B in the industrial base of the defense industry is targets just for that.

[RichardGibbons]

That makes me wonder if the best thing for the world would be the Ukrainian war lasting for a decade.  Horrible for Ukraine, but if nations began to believe that any war is likely to last many years, consuming many lives and resources, I think there would be fewer wars.

[Sweet]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I am guessing we really need to give Ukraine airplanes such that they can gain at least local air superiority to win this. The current stalemate situation on the ground makes offensives difficult, so we basically have a WW1 like situation. This situation advantaging the defender  was broken in WW2 with tanks and motorized infantry but also combined warfare with air support. The later part is lacking the Ukraine forces and it shows.

 

Then we need to figure out to make more “stuff” when needed. Now everything is produces in planned lots but we have no flexibility to make more, if we run out of something. Thats hard to solve with the complexity of defense hardware, but we need to figure out a way to do it.

 

We can’t just find ourself in a situation where we lose a bunch of fighter plans and then it takes 2 years to replace them. Thats a sure fire way to lose a war, because let’s face it unless a war is totally asymmetrical , a war tends to be a drawn out affair (years, not weeks) and stuff happens that you can plan for or predict and we need to be prepared for that. I think the plan to invested $50B in the industrial base of the defense industry is targets just for that.

To quote a US general on this, referring to US equipment being the best in the world, but Chinese are building their kit rapidly - “quantity is a quality of its own”.

 

Having advanced technology is important but you also need the ability to pump out military equipment at a vast rate.  Even if is lower technology, quantity is important.

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Sweet