Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

13 hours ago, UK said:

 and i am no way a big military expert, but I would like to share with you, perhaps overly optimistic, views.

UK,

 

Don’t be shy. The so-called military experts get plenty wrong ALL the time. It is the military historians that get plenty right, as the latter is a backward-looking fact-based profession while the former is forward-looking profession, drawing from past biases and framework of the last war, while heavily ignoring the law of randomness.

 

If military expert were right all the time, all wars launched should be concluded swiftly as it was overseen by experts. And all the wars were the outcome was deemed unfavourable would not be launched. When politicians do not overwrite military leaders. 
 

it is like the whole market efficiency discussion. 

 

 

[UK]

https://www.dw.com/en/russian-lawmaker-dies-after-fall-in-indian-hotel/a-6422200

 

Antov's death is the latest in a string of mysterious deaths of Russian nationals and businessmen since the war in Ukraine. Alexander Buzakov, the director-general of a major Russian shipyard that specializes in building non-nuclear submarines died over the weekend, the shipyard announced in a statement without offering details. In September, Ivan Pechorin, the top manager for the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, was found dead in Vladivostok, a major Pacific port city in Russia. Russia media said Pechorin died after drowning near Cape Ignatyev in the Sea of Japan. Also in September, the chairman of Russia's largest private oil company Lukoil, Ravil Maganov, was found dead after falling out of a window. Russian media later reported he took his own life. In May, Alexander Subbotin, a former top manager of Lukoil, was found dead in a house near Moscow, according to Russian media. Other Russian businessmen and people with ties to Russia's military-industrial complex have also been reported dead in recent months.

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by UK

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/12/28/ukraines-women-snipers-take-the-fight-to-putin

 

Unlike men of conscription age, Ukrainian women are not barred from leaving the country. An initiative to extend the draft to women working in critical professions was due to be enacted last October, but it was postponed amid popular outcry. That means, for the time being at least, women who fight choose to do so voluntarily. That hasn’t stopped Ukraine’s armed forces taking on an increasingly female face. Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Anna Malyar, says there are now “at least 30,000” women soldiers serving in the army, or one in five of the official, pre-mobilised number. (The exact numbers in the army now are a closely guarded secret.) Most often, women soldiers fulfil back-line roles as medics, press officers, cooks, secret communications officers, or in the sensitive task of evacuating and treating bodies, dead or alive. But a growing number, at least 5,000, are performing front-line roles. Many dozens are snipers. The women trainees say they have faced resistance at every stage of their journey, usually from men who believed women are fundamentally unsuited to the sniping profession. “We’ve never sought an easy life,” says Phoenix, “but we’ve proven ourselves whenever the question is asked.” She says she is under no illusions about the dangers. Snipers occupy a particular spot in military psychology, and are singled out for demonstrative treatment if they are ever captured. Being female is unlikely to offer an advantage. “If a woman sniper is captured, she will be raped, humiliated, tortured, and then executed,” says Oksana. “A sniper should always be prepared to blow herself up with a grenade.”

[no_free_lunch]

On the women fighters, it is not surprising dear UK.  Some people, in any society, are naturally very brave and coupled with Russian atrocities it will draw them into the conflict.

 

To refute the white washing filth around Russia being there for some purpose other than to conquer and subjugate, see this article from UK intelligence.   Or of course, just use common sense and basic facts around the events at hand.

 

Quote

Russia had planned to take over Ukraine over 10 days and annex it by August this year, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) said.

..

The documents also revealed that Russia planned to capture Ukraine's power stations, airfields, water supplies, central bank and parliament - and that Russian special services were tasked with killing the Ukrainian leadership.

..

The invasion plan reportedly detailed plots to capture Ukraine's nuclear power plants in order to shelter Russian troops, gain control over the country's energy system, and potentially blackmail European countries with the risk of radiation pollution.

..

The Russian counterintelligence regime had compiled lists of some Ukrainians, RUSI said.

They were divided into four categories:

• Those who should be killed
• Those in need of suppression and intimidation
• Those considered neutral who should be encouraged to collaborate
• Those prepared to collaborate.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-captured-russian-documents-reveal-moscows-10-day-plan-to-take-over-the-country-and-kill-its-leaders-12759836

 

It all ties together, Ukrainians know the score, Russians support it but are not really willing to die despite all their bluster.  In the end, I suspect Russia will be forced to withdraw and will be that much more of a shittier and weaker country as a result of all of this.  The best part is that the west gets the top tier of the Russian population via immigration.

Edited December 30, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

War on the Rocks had another amazing episode this past Wednesday. No mumbo-jumbo. 

[UK]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

War on the Rocks had another amazing episode this past Wednesday. No mumbo-jumbo. 

 

Which one you have in mind? Is it posible to share a link? Thanks!

[Xerxes]

9 hours ago, UK said:

 

Which one you have in mind? Is it posible to share a link? Thanks!

 

there you go. Both of these episodes 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591512926

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591012314

 

[UK]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

there you go. Both of these episodes 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591512926

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591012314

 

 

Thanks!

[John Hjorth]

Reuters [ December 31^th 2022] : Putin uses New Year address for wartime rallying cry to Russians .

 

*Shrug* Tell me about it. No mercy, sympathy, tolerance or understanding from me.

[UK]

https://kyivindependent.com/national/reznikov-tells-russians-they-have-one-week-left-before-borders-close

[Xerxes]

49 minutes ago, UK said:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/reznikov-tells-russians-they-have-one-week-left-before-borders-close

The Russian border were kept precisely open such that troublemakers, anti war folks, anti special military operations folks all leave. 
 

I think Kiev is trying its hand at propaganda, this time not so well.
 

I think Russia does not need more manpower (beyond the annual round up) but what it needs are munitions, artillery shells  etc. 

[ValueArb]

 

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

The Russian border were kept precisely open such that troublemakers, anti war folks, anti special military operations folks all leave. 
 

I think Kiev is trying its hand at propaganda, this time not so well.
 

I think Russia does not need more manpower (beyond the annual round up) but what it needs are munitions, artillery shells  etc. 

 

I have no evidence to back this up but I have heard that those fleeing are correlated with tech and other high skilled workers.  So the issue is more the loss to the Russian economy than to the recruiting pool and that will in time translate to your last point around military supply.

[Xerxes]

22 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

I have no evidence to back this up but I have heard that those fleeing are correlated with tech and other high skilled workers.  So the issue is more the loss to the Russian economy than to the recruiting pool and that will in time translate to your last point around military supply.

 

Completely agree. Your best and brightest (who can afford to have a future aboard) are leaving.

 

Samething with brains leaving Iran for the past 30 years. Drip by drip. I am always amazed how Iran can still punch above its weight, (not economically but geopolitical influence) with all the sanctions, all restrictions all the helps that it peers are getting. 

 

 

[ValueArb]

8 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

Completely agree. Your best and brightest (who can afford to have a future aboard) are leaving.

 

Samething with brains leaving Iran for the past 30 years. Drip by drip. I am always amazed how Iran can still punch above its weight, (not economically but geopolitical influence) with all the sanctions, all restrictions all the helps that it peers are getting. 

 

 

 

You of all people should understand that Iran has been coasting on that huge lead Cyrus the Great gave it 2,500 years ago.

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

The Russian border were kept precisely open such that troublemakers, anti war folks, anti special military operations folks all leave. 
 

I think Kiev is trying its hand at propaganda, this time not so well.
 

I think Russia does not need more manpower (beyond the annual round up) but what it needs are munitions, artillery shells  etc. 

we will see. maybe they are right and Russia closes the border to stop the bleeding.

 

As for mobilization, if Russia indeed mobilized 300,000 troops, then this cannon folder will last about a year, if estimates of the Russian losses are correct. These losses have been able to plug some holes, but they haven’t been able to do anything offensive with this manpower.

So I would expect an annual mobilization drive of about 300k troops to resupply the meat grinder. There are supposedly 40k conscripts alone in the Bakmuth area and if you want to see grizzly footage on how they are doing there , there plenty of it.

[UK]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

There are supposedly 40k conscripts alone in the Bakmuth area and if you want to see grizzly footage on how they are doing there , there plenty of it.

 

This is not very pleasant video, but here you are, some managment lessons from Donbas: 

 

[Luke]

37 minutes ago, UK said:

 

This is not very pleasant video, but here you are, some managment lessons from Donbas: 

 

Good Lord! Its always a shock to see how retarded some people on this planet are. What a joke, clowns fighting a war they dont even completely understand themselves, getting beaten by some random commander in the middle of nowhere. What a waste...

[james22]

Looking for a fragging.

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

we will see. maybe they are right and Russia closes the border to stop the bleeding.

 

As for mobilization, if Russia indeed mobilized 300,000 troops, then this cannon folder will last about a year, if estimates of the Russian losses are correct. These losses have been able to plug some holes, but they haven’t been able to do anything offensive with this manpower.

So I would expect an annual mobilization drive of about 300k troops to resupply the meat grinder. There are supposedly 40k conscripts alone in the Bakmuth area and if you want to see grizzly footage on how they are doing there , there plenty of it.

the Ukrainian top general said it best: their action on Bakhmut is about “fixing” the Ukrainian position (capturing or not capturing not really that tangible to the war effort)

 

if Ukrainian are forces fixed at Bakhmut then they cannot re-deploy those forces on their own terms, where they should be going.
 

——

you want to see grizzly, check out the story of the Wagnor convict who deserted and was captured by Ukraine. He was interview by NY Times. His interview was “accidentally” published. (Whatever that means) He was returned by Ukraine to Russia in a prisoner swap.
 

The Russian mercenary outfit had his head taped to the a piece of concrete and made him confess on video, as they swung a sledgehammer into his skull. I didn’t see that part. 

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

You of all people should understand that Iran has been coasting on that huge lead Cyrus the Great gave it 2,500 years ago.

The current rulers in Tehran would never admit this, but Qassem Suleimani’ Quds Revolutionary Guards was walking in the footsteps of Khusrow, Shahpur, and other Shahanshahs of the past.

 

The Sassanid fought the Romans in the plains of Syria. Their descendants, the Safavids fought the Ottomans in Syria and Mesopotamia.  
 

The enemy in the West always changed after few hundreds years, but Persian were always there.  

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-01/victory-over-russia-in-ukraine-may-bring-world-war-3-niall-ferguson?srnd=premium

[Spekulatius]

I did a Google search for this title and incidentally found an article from a Georgian author with the same title. Seems very prescient what this author predicted in 2019.

https://neweasterneurope.eu/2019/08/26/all-is-not-quiet-on-the-eastern-front/

 

The more I think about this, the more it is clear that this attack on Ukraine is part of Putins long term plan.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I did a Google search for this title and incidentally found an article from a Georgian author with the same title. Seems very prescient what this author predicted in 2019.

https://neweasterneurope.eu/2019/08/26/all-is-not-quiet-on-the-eastern-front/

 

The more I think about this, the more it is clear that this attack on Ukraine is part of Putins long term plan.

very good article. It is one of those things where closer you are to the border, the more prescient you ll look to those afar, after the fact. 
 

Putin is the person we most refer to because his position. My view is that this was always bound to happen. Putin or not. But our Western need to associate narrative to a central figure is holding us. You can build a narrative around the persona of Saddam or Osama, but in Russia’ case it is very different. (Same with Iran) 
 

The transition from Empire to nationhood can take many forms. And it usually comes in three or four steps in my view:

1- disintegration as the centrifugal force holding the empire gives away. 
 

2- the fight to establish/cut a “nation” out of the wreckage of the empire by the former masters.  
 

3- DNA and the Imperial dream still there. 

4-became a “museum” nation 

 

Let’s take some examples. The Ottoman and Russian empires. In Turkish case, the Young Turks, the Attaturk, worked hard, broke many eggs, fought and died but they secured the border of the modern nation of Turkey, even as the empire collapsed around them.

 

In Russia’s case, there was no strong central figure to fight for Russian interest post-1989. And the post-1991 border became to be defined by USSR internal borders. So step (2) never got done in case of Russia. In short the disintegration was sudden, so the “inevitable” got frozen. 
 

step (3) is largely where Turkey is now. Decades later (a century really) it wants to become the paramount influencer in the Muslim world leveraging its imperial past. 
 

In Iran case, the disintegration of empire was very gradual. In fact over two centuries. The peak was the reign of Nader Shah, whose armies conquer vast swaths of territory lost to the Afghan, Ottomans and also went as far as Delhi. Iran’ Peacock Throne in fact was taken from India. Though the original is largely lost I believe. Hundred year after Nader Shah, as the British pushed their interest from the south and India, as the Russia pushed from North and Turks from the west. The empire just shrunk overtime and became the small nation that we know today. like how the passage of water curves into a stone over time. so in Iran case, I think they also in step (3) 

 

let take another example since I am in Portugal. The Portuguese dictator Salazar worked hard to preserve its vast colonial empire post 1945. The Portuguese fought wars of imperial preservation and still held Goa and other lands in India by the 1960s. Today Portugal is in stage (4). A “museum” nation. where UK is as well. European nations did not really have to do stage (2) as their colonies were geographically in distinct location.

 

same with the French as well. Though they dragged US into Vietnam but it was only decades after 1945 that the French bowed out of their imperial past. 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

I recommend checking out the documentary “Winter on Fire” about the Euromaiden revolution on Netflix. It also provides background and it is clear that the war in Ukraune started in February 2014 not 2022, it just went cold for a while.

 

Before Viktor Yanukovych was ousted , Ukraine was on its way to become a Russian vassals state like Belarus by means of a treaty with Putin that pivoted Ukraine away from its path to the EU toward Russia. When people revolted and ousted Yanukovych, Putin took military action and invaded the Crimea and also started a proxy war in Donbas that never really ended.

 

Now in 2022, Putin came to finish the jobs he started in 2014 but what while the West and the US did nothing in 2014, to Putins surprise the Western response was unified and impactful and that’s got us and Ukraine where we are right now.

 

Based on my read of the story line of history and and Putin, this will not end with Ukraine becoming neutral or anything of this sort, because Putin knows that the people in Ukraine tilt toward the west and sooner or later any Russian friendly regime might fall.

 

So in my opinion, the only way to end this is to help Ukraine to become part of Europe in the end and likely part of NATO or associated with it. Anything else will just make the conflict a temporary cold one and Putin will strike again at an opportune time for him to get what he thinks belongs to Russia. 
 

I have no idea if another Russian leader would look at this the same way. Possibly any Russian leader would, be skeptical towards the west, but I don’t think about anyone would start a war - that’s a choice not and inevitable thing.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Spekulatius