Russia-Ukrainian War - Political

[John Hjorth]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

There is literally zero trade with Russia at this point so what are tariffs going to do? 10% or 100% or 1000% of zero are still zero.

 

Its not the first time Trump bring up tariffs with Russia - what a joke. .

 

13 hours ago, Sweet said:

Yeh, it’s pointless and toothless but it plays well.

 

Yes, agree, absolutely like drumming on empty oil barrels. 

[John Hjorth]

12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Eutelsat working to replace  Starlink In Ukraine.

IMO Starlink is done in Europe since they can’t rely on it when it really counts.

 

6 hours ago, Sweet said:

It hasn’t been pulled yet, has it?  If they do then yeh.

 

@Spekulatius and @Sweet,

 

I have read somewhere, and it was a statement from a Polish public servant, that there is no risk of Starlink being pulled by Musk for Ukraine, because the bills for Ukraines use of Starlink are being paid by Poland, as an integral part of Polands ongoing support of Ukraine.

 

I'm aware of the information in the beginning of the war, that Musk made it available for Ukraine for free, though.

 

I found it :

 

Reuters - World - Europe [February 22^nd 2025] : Poland is paying for Ukraine's Starlink subscription, its deputy PM says.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

It's Saturday, the sun is shining from a clear blue sky, lots of light and 13^o C! The spring has finally arrived! 

Edited 23 hours ago by John Hjorth

[dealraker]

As to the POTUS position regarding Ukraine my view is that if the US does not have the near unanimously predicted Roaring 20's boom that instead of shaping events the presidency will be more one of being controlled by events.  I've already seen things happening in the US power scheme competition that I thought were sure to happen but only down the road some...they're already in process.  I think the economic setting in the US will be the determining factor on a lot of the US actions with Ukraine.   

[Spekulatius]

I do not think the Ukraine for Trump is about economics, it’s about his strategic vision for the world (Ukraine has no place in his view). Also Trump politics is always personal. He clearly has soft spot for Putin and that was obvious in his first presidency( remember when he said he trusted Putin’s word more than the CIA- his own intelligence agency). And hi saying that “we have been through hard times together etc” more recently. Zelenskyy is on the hate list because he failed to give him dirt on Biden and other reasons. Trump seeks revenge amongst one as well as not catering to his narcist personality enough.

 

You can see this personal aspect also on other instances where he clearly seem to deal much better with Sheinbaum than with Trudeau.

 

Back to Starlink, the issue isn’t that Starlink is not paid for - the RU or Poland can easily do this. The lady from Eutel said that Ukraine runs around 40k Starlink terminals for the military , so if you run the numbers on 100/Euro  month then it’s less than 50M Euro / year (Ukraine has about 4K Eutelsat terminals ). Even if you double the subscription cost, it’s an immaterial expense.

 

The issue is that Trump/Elon can easily turn these terminal off, paid or not. This has happened before when Elon turn off access over the Black Sea for Ukraine when he heard they were used for see based drones to hit Russian ships (WW3 is coming ). So for military infrastructure in Europe, Starlink is now questionable and that’s why the Europeans now try to replace this with Eutelsat as quick as possible.

 

This is just one of the many things where the dependency on US is now in question. For example the Russian defense minister recently stained that they bought Himars but didn’t get launch codes. they also now openly debate if F35 fighter planes are of any use because they run on an cloud connected to the US, so what if Poland decides to use them in some form or fashion related to Ukraine and the US turns them off.

 

Europe need to get on its own feet in defense as quick as possible and they know this but there are still some holdouts clinging on pre Trump thinking.

[cubsfan]

^^^  I guess Trump has not learned from the failures of Obama/Clinton/Biden

as they profess their love for Mother Russia in 2009, after the brutal invasion of Georgia.

 

Hopefully Trump will not as reckless as Obama during this critical negotiation.

 

Or perhaps we should let the "statesman" Obama set terms for the peace??

 

 

Edited 22 hours ago by cubsfan

[John Hjorth]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

^^^  I guess Trump has not learned from the failures of Obama/Clinton

as they profess their love for Mother Russia in 2009, after the brutal invasion of Georgia.

 

Hopefully Trump will not as reckless as Obama during this critical negotiation.

 

Or perhaps we should let the "statesman" Obama set terms for the peace??

 

 

 

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

You need to let this type and line of rear view looking posting go from here. It's for historians. It's not relevant for looking at the situation from here on forward looking.

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

You need to let this type and line of rear view looking posting go from here. It's for historians. It's not relevant for looking at the situation from here on forward looking.

 

Oh really?  Just like you and your crowd continue to harp on all the past sacrifices of Danish forces to America in the Middle East, NATO conflicts, etc???

 

Who the hell are you kidding. It's just not convenient for your current narrative, is it now John?

 

Give me a break already.

[Spekulatius]

 

 

19 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^  I guess Trump has not learned from the failures of Obama/Clinton/Biden

as they profess their love for Mother Russia in 2009, after the brutal invasion of Georgia.

 

Hopefully Trump will not as reckless as Obama during this critical negotiation.

 

Or perhaps we should let the "statesman" Obama set terms for the peace??

 

 

Also a mistake, but let’s not forget - this is a symbolical red button. This is not even in the same Galaxy compared to what Trump is doing with Russia now.

Edited 22 hours ago by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Also a mistake, but let’s not forget - this is a symbolical red button. This is not even in the same Galaxy compared to what Trump is doing with Russia now.

 

Mistake?  That's a pretty underwhelming.

 

More like a fucking catastrophe.

 

Obama did this in 2009.  Then he compounds this strategic error in 2014 - 5 years later.

Russia invades Crimea/Donbas - and his response??

 

Let's arm the Ukrainians with blankets - no weapons - blankets. That's Obama's "red line".

Another catastrophic error.

 

What does Europe do?

 

Let's buy all the Russian gas we can, and help the Russian military arm to the teeth.

 

You aren't even in the ballpark @Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

4 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Oh really?  Just like you and your crowd continue to harp on all the past sacrifices of Danish forces to America in the Middle East, NATO conflicts, etc???

 

Who the hell are you kidding. It's just not convenient for your current narrative, is it now John?

 

Give me a break already.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Yes, serious misjudgements about the ruler of Russia earlier have been proved during the last three years, and have thereby surfaced by now, by what factual has happened during that period.

 

I only brought the past up related to the POTUS yesterday questioned if he could trust the NATO allies of USA, where USA activated NATOs article 5 the day after 9/11 in the war against terror, where Denmark did did stand up to its duty following USA by its side into the Middle East.

 

If this is not a satisfactory reply by me for you, you need to let it go from here. I'm not going to get sucked into a 30 days ban, the 30 days ban in the downpipe vortex containing you and me, after a travel through the 30 days ban gutter.

[changegonnacome]

Pretty clear that Europe is finally headed for strategic autonomy from the US.......the reality & realpolitik is that this diminishes the US's power and influence on an absolute and relative basis in the global system ......it's an outstanding day in the office for Putin & Xi when your principal opponent so roundly diminishes itself like this. Trump is the first president in my lifetime through his own actions to so irrefutably shrink the USA's power & influence like this. That this is being done under the banner of 'Make America Great Again' is the hilarious part. It should be more like Make America Just Another Country Again (less catchy I know!).

 

Put another way - on China and Russia's foreign policy wishlist each year for the last 80 years would have been trying to figure out methods by which to separate the European's from the American's or vice versa. Such that the USA's power would be diminished. Trump has made their wish come through.

 

When you think about the future likely outcome now based on all the 'peace deal' noises I dont think anyone could not come to the conclusion that the Feb 2022 invasion has turned out to be a very successful mission for Russia/China:

 

- Four oblasts & Crimea likely officially acknowledged, by the US/EU/Ukraine, as being annexed

- a demilitarized Ukraine

- No NATO expansion into Ukraine

- Indeed to go a step further - one might argue that NATO's Article Five is toast which means NATO is toast

- a permanent splintering in the post-WWII alliance structure between the USA and Europe

- the US's China containment deterrence in Asia IMO is in tatters......who for example in Taiwan, South Korea, Philippines, Japan or Australia feels MORE confident now after the Ukraine debacle that the US has the stomach for fights in far flung places? The answer is nobody - which means China's aspirational journey to regional hegemon in Asia (on the way to global hegemon) has been advanced.

 

All told this is turning out to be a hugely successful military operation for Putin and well worth the price he's paid. I would also say that Xi & China owe him a beer the next time they see him. China is the big winner from the fracturing of the European/US alliance.

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Yes, serious misjudgements about the ruler of Russia earlier have been proved during the last three years, and have thereby surfaced by now, by what factual has happened during that period.

 

I only brought the past up related to the POTUS yesterday questioned if he could trust the NATO allies of USA, where USA activated NATOs article 5 the day after 9/11 in the war against terror, where Denmark did did stand up to its duty following USA by its side into the Middle East.

 

If this is not a satisfactory reply by me for you, you need to let it go from here. I'm not going to get sucked into a 30 days ban, the 30 days ban in the downpipe vortex containing you and me, after a travel through the 30 days ban gutter.

 

Your response is very satisfactory @John Hjorth - but you don't get to bring up what you think is "relevant" past history - at the same time as excluding the "relevant" past history you do not like.

 

It's pretty clear that many of the poster wish to pin this calamity on the current adminstration,

who is attempting to solve the mess left in his hands.

[cwericb]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Your response is very satisfactory @John Hjorth - but you don't get to bring up what you think is "relevant" past history - at the same time as excluding the "relevant" past history you do not like.

 

It's pretty clear that many of the poster wish to pin this calamity on the current adminstration,

who is attempting to solve the mess left in his hands.

 

But Cubs I can't understand the problem here. It would seem that the fix is quite simple isn't it? I mean didn't Trump say over and over again that he could fix it on day one and people voted for him because of that. or was that just more hot air?

[Sweet]

3 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Pretty clear that Europe is finally headed for strategic autonomy from the US.......the reality & realpolitik is that this diminishes the US's power and influence on an absolute and relative basis in the global system

It’s too early to be sure, but directionally I think you are right.

 

I think the amount of self owning here is unlike anything I’ve seen in politics.

 

I don’t understand why the current administration don’t see this, there is a chance Trump and Vance simply don’t get it.

 

There is an alternative explanation, they are trying to induce a major change in their partners by showing them what the world looks like when America reduces from its commitments.  Then they mend and strengthen bridges in the last two years… we will see

[alpha]

3 minutes ago, Sweet said:

It’s too early to be sure, but directionally I think you are right.

 

I think the amount of self owning here is unlike anything I’ve seen in politics.

 

I don’t understand why the current administration don’t see this, there is a chance Trump and Vance simply don’t get it.

 

There is an alternative explanation, they are trying to induce a major change in their partners by showing them what the world looks like when America reduces from its commitments.  Then they mend and strengthen bridges in the last two years… we will see

 

I don't think so. The FT has a good article arguing the the republican party values have basically shifted away from western democratic values. If USA was just trying to scare their partners they wouldn't be disabling F16 EW and revoking Ukraine refugee status, etc...

 

https://www.ft.com/content/3046013f-da85-4987-92a5-4a9e3008a9e1

[cubsfan]

4 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Pretty clear that Europe is finally headed for strategic autonomy from the US.......the reality & realpolitik is that this diminishes the US's power and influence on an absolute and relative basis in the global system ......it's an outstanding day in the office for Putin & Xi when your principal opponent so roundly diminishes itself like this. Trump is the first president in my lifetime through his own actions to so irrefutably shrink the USA's power & influence like this. That this is being done under the banner of 'Make America Great Again' is the hilarious part. It should be more like Make America Just Another Country Again (less catchy I know!).

 

I find this confusing.

 

So why did Barrack Obama talk a big game against Russia, then cut and run after Putin invaded Crimea/Donbas in 2014???

 

Why did he tell Putin - don't do it - then refuse to send weapons to the Ukrainian leadership that begged him constantly for armaments?

 

Why would he cut and run on them like this?

 

WASHINGTON--President Barack Obama stuck to his refusal to provide weapons or other lethal military gear to Ukraine, despite a passionate appeal Thursday for help in fighting pro-Russia rebels by Ukraine's president.

 

 

The decision reflects the Obama administration's long-standing concern that arming Ukraine would provoke Moscow into a further escalation that could drag Washington into a proxy war.

 

 

"We are going to continue to seek to mobilize the international community to say to Russia that Ukraine desires to have a good relationship with all its neighbors, both East and West," Mr. Obama said

 

 

He said the U.S. would stand with Ukraine and is prepared to help the country in negotiations with Russia. "The sovereignty and territory of Ukraine is nonnegotiable," Mr. Obama said.

 

President Obama sounds absolutely Trumpian - refusing to get dragged into a proxy war with a nuclear power.

 

[John Hjorth]

5 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Your response is very satisfactory @John Hjorth - but you don't get to bring up what you think is "relevant" past history - at the same time as excluding the "relevant" past history you do not like.

 

It's pretty clear that many of the poster wish to pin this calamity on the current adminstration, who is attempting to solve the mess left in his hands.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

That is actually - by logic - a question, that qualifies very well, and trying to think about the whole mess from that perspective, actually provides a way to decompose this whole calamity into slices :

 

Date cut 1 : The moment in time just before Validimir Putin officially annnounced the Russian aggresion against Ukraine as special military operation.

Date cut 2 : The moment in time just before Russia de facto annexed Crimea.

 

These two date cuts create in time three sepate periods in time being :

 

Time after Date cut 1 : Ukrainian land occupied by Russia by now embraced by the ongoing intiatives for peace since Russia started its most recent agression against Ukraine.

 

Time between Date cut 1 and Date cut 2 : The pople of the occupied territories in the south and east of Ukranie should decideto which state to belong, by referendum.

 

Time before Date cut 2 :  The Crimean people should decide to wich state to belong, by referendum,

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

I may likely be the only human being on this planet to think so. -But you asked, and I answered.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

I find this confusing.

 

So why did Barrack Obama talk a big game against Russia, then cut and run after Putin invaded Crimea/Donbas in 2014???

 

Why did he tell Putin - don't do it - then refuse to send weapons to the Ukrainian leadership that begged him constantly for armaments?

 

Why would he cut and run on them like this?

 

WASHINGTON--President Barack Obama stuck to his refusal to provide weapons or other lethal military gear to Ukraine, despite a passionate appeal Thursday for help in fighting pro-Russia rebels by Ukraine's president.

 

 

The decision reflects the Obama administration's long-standing concern that arming Ukraine would provoke Moscow into a further escalation that could drag Washington into a proxy war.

 

 

"We are going to continue to seek to mobilize the international community to say to Russia that Ukraine desires to have a good relationship with all its neighbors, both East and West," Mr. Obama said

 

 

He said the U.S. would stand with Ukraine and is prepared to help the country in negotiations with Russia. "The sovereignty and territory of Ukraine is nonnegotiable," Mr. Obama said.

 

President Obama sounds absolutely Trumpian - refusing to get dragged into a proxy war with a nuclear power.

 

 

The first president to send lethal weapons to Ukraine was Trump.  That was then this is now.

 

I think there are a load of possible reasons why changegonnacome could be right.

[John Hjorth]

20 hours ago, dealraker said:

As to the POTUS position regarding Ukraine my view is that if the US does not have the near unanimously predicted Roaring 20's boom that instead of shaping events the presidency will be more one of being controlled by events.  I've already seen things happening in the US power scheme competition that I thought were sure to happen but only down the road some...they're already in process.  I think the economic setting in the US will be the determining factor on a lot of the US actions with Ukraine.   

 

Charlie [ @dealraker ],

 

Based on developments in USA in markets, interest rates, inflation, GDP, debt, employment, unemployment, etc., - all managed by a steady hand of the current administration personalized by USA CFO Scott Bessent, steady as we go, in cooperation with the POTUS, cabinet and congress?

 

- It certainly would be great. -You may eventually end up being right, while I don't believe so by now. Maybe, deep down, some kind of reason, logic and responsibility eventually may end up surfacing down the road. At least some kind of cost consciousness seems to prevail by now.

Edited 3 hours ago by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

Trump again saying US in for 350 billion and Europe a 100 billion.  
 

Question for cubs and anyone else, why do you think he keeps saying things that are untrue?

 

[Charlie]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

Trump again saying US in for 350 billion and Europe a 100 billion.  
 

Question for cubs and anyone else, why do you think he keeps saying things that are untrue?

He often says something that is not true.

He is probably not lying, but doesn´t know some facts.

Perhaps he has too many "Yes" men around him and nobody is telling him the relevant facts or he sees it as an insult when somebody explaining it to him.

Perhaps he doesn´t like to hear facts.  

[Mephistopheles]

5 hours ago, Sweet said:

Trump again saying US in for 350 billion and Europe a 100 billion.  
 

Question for cubs and anyone else, why do you think he keeps saying things that are untrue?

 

Probably because he’s an authoritarian narcissist