Parsad Posted May 4 Posted May 4 56 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: Why do people think that unprecedented events can't happen? Because they've never happened before? That's nonsense. Go back and look at human history. Unprecedented events have happened repeatedly, over and over again, throughout the entirety of our existence. And history and data from the past have never offered a complete roadmap for the future. The only thing they can possibly do is give you tools in order to spot patterns. Interestingly, mathematics is often defined as the studying of patterns. So much of the well-being of the United States, and the well-being of the world by extension, is currently sitting, and has sat, atop the credit and the faith placed in the United States currency. We have built a global economy, trade, systems of credit, the means for humans to exist at scale on this agreement that the United States would be good for what it said it would. This system we now live in came to be after WW2. Since then, much has changed, but this system we've created has grown massively and has created a period of unprecedented peace and prosperity throughout the world. Now, we are overconsuming on a grand level, at a pace that we've never done before, which is compounding on top of massive overconsumption we've already done. This overconsumption, reflected in our massive and growing fiscal deficits, is putting immense pressure and growing stress on the Treasury market, and in-effect the USD, which in a multitude of ways is the foundation for the global economy and credit itself. What happens if this system breaks? Is Warren Buffett wrong? Is Jamie Dimon wrong? Buffett has been repeatedly warning about runaway inflation, most recently this Saturday during his interview, on top of years of warnings from Munger. Jamie Dimon has said multiple times that we're approaching a bond market crisis. Remember, this is the man who is the CEO and Chairman of JP Morgan Chase, the world's largest primary dealer by total volume and inventory. The risks to Treasury markets are existential ones. In the future, they will ultimately define the realities for many. Blake, forget the stock market...start a podcast on this stuff, put it on Youtube, and you will make a fortune scaring the shit out of the general public. You'll be richer than anyone on this message board, can make your arguments all day without any supporting statistics, and never have to invest in the stock market until the black swan event occurs! Just don't waste your time not making ANY money...whether its avoiding the stock market or wasting your research/data on the naysayers. There is always a way to turn lead into gold! Cheers!
Gregmal Posted May 4 Posted May 4 3 minutes ago, Parsad said: Blake, forget the stock market...start a podcast on this stuff, put it on Youtube, and you will make a fortune scaring the shit out of the general public. You'll be richer than anyone on this message board, can make your arguments all day without any supporting statistics, and never have to invest in the stock market until the black swan event occurs! Just don't waste your time not making ANY money...whether its avoiding the stock market or wasting your research/data on the naysayers. There is always a way to turn lead into gold! Cheers! Was gonna say that. The only folks whom make money peddling the shit Blake does sell newsletters lol.
Parsad Posted May 4 Posted May 4 1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said: A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." They also said it was the shortest but deepest in U.S. history: NBER: Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021 People don't understand how close we really were in March of 2020. For an in-depth view, read Trillion Dollar Triage. It was written by Nick Timiraos, the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal. It's a great book. Blake, you do know that the whole world lived through the Pandemic...not just some WSJ journalist. Everyone was watching, reading, living through it. We all know what happened...how we avoided something far worse than what we actually experienced...contrary to what the MAGA/vaccine nutjobs keep arguing about! But the suggestion that many on here don't know how close or bad things were is just silly! Really, you are talking down to people who not only understood the gravity of the situation, but many of us took huge advantage of the fear in markets. That was your once in a generational opportunity...did you take advantage of it? It was like buying condos in Nevada, Arizona and Florida during the GFC...you would make a killing for the next 10 years buying any sort of residential real estate! Since January 2020, I've compounded at nearly 39% annualized over the ensuing six plus years and I didn't just buy Fairfax. It was the first time in my life I used leverage and borrowed off my HELOC! Did you even buy any stocks at that time or the ensuing year later where things were still very cheap? Munger put 90% of the cash in the Daily Journal into three stocks right at the bottom of the GFC! The Daily Journal has not worried about money since, even when Munger put a huge chunk into BABA! There's an old saying...you are very intelligent and must have heard of it..."You can lead a horse to water...!" Cheers!
LC Posted May 4 Posted May 4 You know on one hand it's, "Well Blake, you can't try and measure the S&P down to the detail...its better to just step back and look past the temporary blips...better to just bet on America, DCA into the index, etc etc." Then on the other hand it's all "Well for immigrants needed to keep the American engine running, well we're gonna need a 6 month pre-screen of every applicant and we need a strict quota system down to the individual and we have an 80 point checklist otherwise all of America will implode and until all that happens we're not gonna let anyone in!"
Lazarus Posted May 4 Posted May 4 2 hours ago, Blake Hampton said: Why do people think that unprecedented events can't happen? Because they've never happened before? That's nonsense. Go back and look at human history. Unprecedented events have happened repeatedly, over and over again, throughout the entirety of our existence. And history and data from the past have never offered a complete roadmap for the future. The only thing they can possibly do is give you tools in order to spot patterns. Interestingly, mathematics is often defined as the studying of patterns. So much of the well-being of the United States, and the well-being of the world by extension, is currently sitting, and has sat, atop the credit and the faith placed in the United States currency. We have built a global economy, trade, systems of credit, the means for humans to exist at scale on this agreement that the United States would be good for what it said it would. This system we now live in came to be after WW2. Since then, much has changed, but this system we've created has grown massively and has created a period of unprecedented peace and prosperity throughout the world. Now, we are overconsuming on a grand level, at a pace that we've never done before, which is compounding on top of massive overconsumption we've already done. This overconsumption, reflected in our massive and growing fiscal deficits, is putting immense pressure and growing stress on the Treasury market, and in-effect the USD, which in a multitude of ways is the foundation for the global economy and credit itself. What happens if this system breaks? Is Warren Buffett wrong? Is Jamie Dimon wrong? Buffett has been repeatedly warning about runaway inflation, most recently this Saturday during his interview, on top of years of warnings from Munger. Jamie Dimon has said multiple times that we're approaching a bond market crisis. Remember, this is the man who is the CEO and Chairman of JP Morgan Chase, the world's largest primary dealer by total volume and inventory. The risks to Treasury markets are existential ones. In the future, they will ultimately define the realities for many. You're a lost cause, man. Dozens of people on this board - who collectively have hundreds more years of experience than you and who have a far deeper understanding of the investing world - have repeatedly told you similar things. But you cling to selectively chosen slogans and cliche semi-truths to justify and stick to a pessimistic and overly cautious outlook.
Lazarus Posted May 4 Posted May 4 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: And what evidence do you have, that indicates that you do know what you’re doing?
LC Posted May 4 Posted May 4 Experience is a great teacher. Even better when it's someone else's experience. But sometimes we need to learn for ourselves before we can learn from others For instance, I've learned that grifting losers will behave like (shocker) grifting losers! https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/kristi-noem-has-continued-using-a-waterfront-coast-guard-house-since-ouster-b906227a
Spekulatius Posted May 6 Posted May 6 On 5/4/2026 at 8:50 AM, Blake Hampton said: If you buy the market today, I’m certain it’ll go up quite a lot in nominal terms. In real terms, however, you’re going to get absolutely fucking crushed. Then maybe you should not buy the market then. Go to the investment section of this site for ideas.
ourkid8 Posted May 6 Posted May 6 (edited) Pretty please, UN — help us out of the mess we created with Israel. We attacked Iran with everything, gave intel/partnered on the strikes that kicked this off, and now that they’re still fighting back and shutting down the strait, we need the “rules-based order” to bail us out? - I can’t even make this shit up! @cubsfan Edited May 6 by ourkid8
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 ^^^ We're getting there Kid! Just don't count on the UN, NATO or Europe for any help - they're all more than useless...
cwericb Posted May 6 Posted May 6 14 minutes ago, cubsfan said: ^^^ We're getting there Kid! Just don't count on the UN, NATO or Europe for any help - they're all more than useless... Why on earth would you expect help from anyone to bail you out when you get into trouble with an ill advised war you started with no consultation with anyone else? What's with all the boo-hooing about the fact no one else wants to get involved in a war the US has repeatedly told everyone else they didn't need anyone's help? Are you serious when you say: "Just don't count on the UN, NATO or Europe for any help - they're all more than useless..." What the f**k, did you expect?
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 6 minutes ago, cwericb said: Why on earth would you expect help from anyone to bail you out when you get into trouble with an ill advised war you started with no consultation with anyone else? What's with all the boo-hooing about the fact no one else wants to get involved in a war the US has repeatedly told everyone else they didn't need anyone's help? Are you serious when you say: "Just don't count on the UN, NATO or Europe for any help - they're all more than useless..." What the f**k, did you expect? You MUST be kidding. The US doesn't need a drop of oil from the Gulf States - that oil is for Europe. The Gulf States have been left out to dry by their "friends and allies" in Europe. No help coming from those losers --- but get me that oil when I need it! So sorry Iran is bombing you more than Israel! Are they providing air defense systems or anything to their "allies"? Hell no! It's NOT about the USA anymore - it's about the Gulf States allies - who Europe depends on and chooses to do NOTHING to help.
cwericb Posted May 6 Posted May 6 (edited) 14 minutes ago, cubsfan said: You MUST be kidding. The US doesn't need a drop of oil from the Gulf States - that oil is for Europe. The Gulf States have been left out to dry by their "friends and allies" in Europe. No help coming from those losers --- but get me that oil when I need it! So sorry Iran is bombing you more than Israel! Are they providing air defense systems or anything to their "allies"? Hell no! It's NOT about the USA anymore - it's about the Gulf States allies - who Europe depends on and chooses to do NOTHING to help. Really? Did you forget the war was started by Trump? Edited May 6 by cwericb
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 Just now, cwericb said: Really? Did you forget it was started by Trump? No - it was started by Iran
cwericb Posted May 6 Posted May 6 1 minute ago, cubsfan said: No - it was started by Iran Hoho! Yes I remember now - Iran bombers flying over Washington dropping bombs. Blew the East Wing right off the White House.
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 9 minutes ago, cwericb said: Hoho! Yes I remember now - Iran bombers flying over Washington dropping bombs. Blew the East Wing right off the White House. Oct 7th - Iran pushed their luck a little too far this time. A reluctant US ally eventually comes to help. Europe sits silent, deathly afraid of their radical Islamic immigrants. Ok - good enough... But when the war spreads to their core interest, energy lifeline with the Gulf States, Europe really shows their cowardice. No wonder Europe wants nothing to do with Ukraine, but does everything possible to get the USA to do their dirty work. Talk is cheap, actions reveal intentions. Europe: talk, talk, talk - no action. We all know it.
cwericb Posted May 6 Posted May 6 1 minute ago, cubsfan said: ... Europe: talk, talk, talk - no action. We all know it. Maybe the problem is ..... that Trump DIDN'T talk enough before attacking Iran? Perhaps if he had consulted with others about his war plan, he wouldn't find himself without allies. Problem was he HAD no plan which is pretty evident now that he has found himself in the position of having no allies.
changegonnacome Posted May 6 Posted May 6 23 minutes ago, cubsfan said: The US doesn't need a drop of oil from the Gulf States The US economy, markets and budget deficit need the global economy to not go off a cliff. This US isn't affected by whats happening in Gulf firstly forgets the global nature of oil markets - last I checked we're headed for $5 gas now. If Global growth goes into a wall, so to does the US that's just the nature of a globalized economy and well one need only look at the US fiscal position to see the US needs a global downturn like a hole in the head. 27 minutes ago, cubsfan said: The Gulf States have been left out to dry by their "friends and allies" in Europe. I know its a narrative violation relative to what Jesse Water is telling you - but the GCC nations have a more ambivalent feeling on this whole situation. They view Trump's decision to attack Iran as reckless as everything that has happened - horizontal escalation with their infrastructure on the line, SOH blockade with zero regime change) were so predictably. The issue for the GCC and UAE found this out yesterday is as Trump fumbles around for a way out of this mess every little escalation and strategy pivot is him fundamentally pushing the GCC allies energy infrastructure into the middle of the roulette table. @cubsfan sorry to break it you but Trump is stuck here in a profound way..... Operation Epic Fury is now completed we we're told by Rubio yesterday. Project Freedom got paused after 24 short hours cause well as I said the Iranian's escalated to take out UAE infrastructre The Reverse Naval Blockade which the WSJ told the President nd everyone else was silver bullet hasn't worked and is unlikely to work. Weren't they supposed to wave the white flag two weeks ago on that one? And now I see the same WSJ saying that actually we probably need to resume the bombing campaign as the blockade isnt creating enough leverage.
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 (edited) 19 minutes ago, cwericb said: Maybe the problem is ..... that Trump DIDN'T talk enough before attacking Iran? Perhaps if he had consulted with others about his war plan, he wouldn't find himself without allies. Problem was he HAD no plan which is pretty evident now that he has found himself in the position of having no allies. Why in the world would you leak your battle plans to countries that are deathly afraid of their radical Islamic populations? Shit - in the US, we can't even trust our Democrats or RINOS. Can you imagine giving Congress a preview into your direct actions, only to have Ilhan Omar or Rashida Talib call their buddies in HAMAS. That's why the POTUS issued threat after threat since he was elected to Iran and Proxies. They certainly did not got the message. That's why the US entrusts POTUS with the military and not Congress. If Europe was dense enough to NOT understand what was possible, then they surely are being led by a bunch of losers. Not here in the USA fortunately. Edited May 6 by cubsfan
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: The US economy, markets and budget deficit need the global economy to not go off a cliff. This US isn't affected by whats happening in Gulf firstly forgets the global nature of oil markets - last I checked we're headed for $5 gas now. If Global growth goes into a wall, so to does the US that's just the nature of a globalized economy and well one need only look at the US fiscal position to see the US needs a global downturn like a hole in the head. I know its a narrative violation relative to what Jesse Water is telling you - but the GCC nations have a more ambivalent feeling on this whole situation. They view Trump's decision to attack Iran as reckless as everything that has happened - horizontal escalation with their infrastructure on the line, SOH blockade with zero regime change) were so predictably. The issue for the GCC and UAE found this out yesterday is as Trump fumbles around for a way out of this mess every little escalation and strategy pivot is him fundamentally pushing the GCC allies energy infrastructure into the middle of the roulette table. @cubsfan sorry to break it you but Trump is stuck here in a profound way..... Operation Epic Fury is now completed we we're told by Rubio yesterday. Project Freedom got paused after 24 short hours cause well as I said the Iranian's escalated to take out UAE infrastructre The Reverse Naval Blockade which the WSJ told the President nd everyone else was silver bullet hasn't worked and is unlikely to work. Weren't they supposed to wave the white flag two weeks ago on that one? And now I see the same WSJ saying that actually we probably need to resume the bombing campaign as the blockade isnt creating enough leverage. Once again, you have overdosed on your buddy Mershiemer, which is just fine and why we don't agree. OF course oil is a global commodity, $5 here, $10 bucks in Europe. Thanks for the help Europe - it's your economy. OF course Trump took a risk for the midterms. Your position has always been Trump is losing. My position is the US/Israel is clearly winning. Like I would ever believe the idiotic WSJ article which acknowledges zero credit to the spectacular military campaign DOD has conducted. So we start bombing again - big deal - the loser is Iran. Only on CoBF -- a completely untouched and unscathed military is losing the war against a totally destroyed nation. Can't make it up!
changegonnacome Posted May 6 Posted May 6 8 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: Trump is stuck here in a profound way Stuck....because the reality is Trump in his infinite wisdom started a war of choice with Iran because he was frustrated that they wouldn't give him a nuclear deal in Geneva that was superior to the JCPOA. His ego and hubris also clearly heard the history books calling him if he could topple the regime. And here we are weeks later after the catastrophic decision, the regime in Tehran changed but changed for the worse (IRGC totally in control), American lives lost, many billions spent and precious weaponry consumed , many more billions of damage done to US consumers through inflation, Asia and then likely the global economy heading for an economic downturn, America's thirteen military bases in the region destroyed or at a minimum completely inoperable, our allies energy infrastructure damaged for years....... and what have we got for all that? As best I can figure out Donald would cry with happiness if Iran put on the table what they we're offering Tweedledum (Witcoff) and Tweedledee (Kushner) in Geneva a couple of months ago. Thats the real test here on this Iran boondoggle.........does Trump emerge from this conflict with a deal and a status quo that is superior to the deal and status quo on offer in Geneva.....right now, objectivably, across all metrics things are worse than what was available on Feb 26th.
73 Reds Posted May 6 Posted May 6 12 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Once again, you have overdosed on your buddy Mershiemer, which is just fine and why we don't agree. OF course oil is a global commodity, $5 here, $10 bucks in Europe. Thanks for the help Europe - it's your economy. OF course Trump took a risk for the midterms. Your position has always been Trump is losing. My position is the US/Israel is clearly winning. Like I would ever believe the idiotic WSJ article which acknowledges zero credit to the spectacular military campaign DOD has conducted. So we start bombing again - big deal - the loser is Iran. Only on CoBF -- a completely untouched and unscathed military is losing the war against a totally destroyed nation. Can't make it up! No matter what degree of success we may achieve, the naysayers will always be....well, naysayers. Somehow, on this board some are able to put their short-term thinking aside when it comes to investments even though it is so obvious in their politics. It is no coincidence that two of the most successful countries in the World are also two of the youngest countries that also happen to be best allies. Each may make mistakes but the trajectory always seems to straighten itself out. It seems as if some of the rest of the World is coming around to following our example, though not necessarily countries and/or regions that we would have expected. Maybe in time.
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 3 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: Stuck....because the reality is Trump in his infinite wisdom started a war of choice with Iran because he was frustrated that they wouldn't give him a nuclear deal in Geneva that was superior to the JCPOA. His ego and hubris also clearly heard the history books calling him if he could topple the regime. And here we are weeks later after the catastrophic decision, the regime in Tehran changed but changed for the worse (IRGC totally in control), American lives lost, many billions spent and precious weaponry consumed , many more billions of damage done to US consumers through inflation, Asia and then likely the global economy heading for an economic downturn, America's thirteen military bases in the region destroyed or at a minimum completely inoperable, our allies energy infrastructure damaged for years....... and what have we got for all that? As best I can figure out Donald would cry with happiness if Iran put on the table what they we're offering Tweedledum (Witcoff) and Tweedledee (Kushner) in Geneva a couple of months ago. Thats the real test here on this Iran boondoggle.........does Trump emerge from this conflict with a deal and a status quo that is superior to the deal and status quo on offer in Geneva.....right now, objectivably, across all metrics things are worse than what was available on Feb 26th. As soon as you start talking about the JCPOA - I tune out unfortunately. That reasonable people can not see the JCPOA as the greatest blunder of Obama's foreign policy is beyond me. Here- let's fund terrorism and nuclear ambitions of the country that screams Death to America & Israel. Let's fund their proxies and call it a Shia Crescent meant to offset the Sunni Crescent and Saudis. Only a cockamamie policy like that could be cooked up by Harvard Obama and his Kennedy School flunkies. Only for the next President with half a brain, to come in and have to destroy the threat to the rest of the world and the Gulf State allies. And yes, it may cost him the mid-terms and some economic growth. Better than a nuked Israel and full scale war with Iran. Now the threat has been removed with minimal American casualties. No thanks to Europe, NATO or the UN.
Gregmal Posted May 6 Posted May 6 38 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Why in the world would you leak your battle plans to countries that are deathly afraid of their radical Islamic populations? Lmfao I know right? So dumb
changegonnacome Posted May 6 Posted May 6 (edited) 31 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Only on CoBF -- a completely untouched and unscathed military is losing the war against a totally destroyed nation. Can't make it up! As I said above the real test here on this Iran boondoggle.........is does Trump emerge from this conflict with a deal and a status quo in Middle East that is superior to the deal and status quo on offer in Geneva and before he decided to go to war. Right? thats the test @cubsfan, the real test. hope we can agree on that at least? Right now, objectivably, across most metrics things are worse than what was available to be signed on Feb 26th in Geneva at $0. - Tehran regime has been changed alright to be more hardline than it was before - Iran has demonstrated irrefutably that it can toggle on and off shipping in the SOH at will - 13 American air bases in the region are destroyed or inoperable - Iran has demonstrated and confirmed its ability to destroy neighbouring energy and water infrastructure in the gulf And most damningly, right now, the Iranian nuclear deal being discussed openly right now and offered in negotiations has disimproved relative to Geneva. The 'wins' right now are short term tactical military ones....not long term strategic one....sure the Iran navy/airforce is gone....but who was worried about the Iranian navy and airforce in early Feb exactly Edited May 6 by changegonnacome
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