Political Posts

[Blake Hampton]

12 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Where do you get that from, Blake [ @Blake Hampton ]? Do you here consider the 2020 event a recession?

 

A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." They also said it was the shortest but deepest in U.S. history: NBER: Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021

People don't understand how close we really were in March of 2020. For an in-depth view, read Trillion Dollar Triage. It was written by Nick Timiraos, the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal. It's a great book.

[Red Lion]

18 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Not to sound like a Hallmark card - but this is a wonderful viewpoint. People from all over the world have been breaking down the door to get into this country - because they get it - and they are not stopping.

This is my #1 gripe with the MAGA movement. 
 

Where is the legislative push to massively streamline immigration for people all over the world who want to do whatever it takes to come make this country great again? 
 

I’m all for deporting violent criminals, reducing handouts for illegals (and others), and legislating and enforcing immigration law that actually makes the country stronger.
 

Maybe it’s just that I live in California, but I like the immigrants way the hell better than 90% of the state’s other residents.  
 

 

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

It's pretty stunning one can look at that chart and arrive at any conclusion other than owning stocks is the way to go. Good lord. 

 

Agree!  I just put the data out, because it's from a source that honestly isn't simply trying to make a buck.  What people do with that data is their choice. 

 

I'm 95% invested right now after accumulating 30% cash just in the last month...and being nearly fully invested another month before...and almost 50% cash in trading accounts at the beginning of the year.  I don't think I've had this much opportunity in short order since October 2008.  And that was a very volatile period where markets were dropping 5%, 8% a day every other week!

 

In the last two months, I've managed to average in at nice very low teen P/E's or even single digit P/E's into a bunch of stocks/LEAPs with solid balance sheets, generally leaders in their areas, or increased ownership in insurance companies I've owned for ages.  Always opportunity for the investor when the world panics!  Cheers!

[moatrep]

The thing with ilegal immigration it is like issuing shares of your country in exchange for human capital. If you don't control your borders Venezuela and other countries will dump their prisions in your country or make nets of ilegal activities. Even if you dilute your shares for someone that just crossed a desert and doesn't have any form of education is arguably a bad trade. Not to talk about Europe where they dilute their shares in exchange of liabilities.

 

So the Republicans wanting to regulate this is the right way to go, you can try to issue shares in exchange of human capital that will add more than what you give, if left unchequed you will most likely lose on the trade.

Edited May 4 by moatrep

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Buffett indicator is at 233%. Dot-com bubble peak was 190%.

 

Now, imagine the outcome if the future consists of vastly higher inflation and interest rates.

 

3 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

 

What exactly are you getting for today's prices? Or is the fact that prices have risen consistently in the recent past all that really matters?

 

Maybe this time is different.

 

3 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

If you buy the market today, I’m certain it’ll go up quite a lot in nominal terms.

 

In real terms, however, you’re going to get absolutely fucking crushed.

 

Blake, you can spout all the "Buffett" homilies you want, but you are not in the same position as Buffett.  His investment world is a tiny, tiny fraction of what is available to you. 

 

He also said if he was managing a million dollars, he would always be fully invested and could do a 50% annualized return.  Are you aiming for 50% annualized?  Are you running a massive insurance company that uses float and debt as leverage?  No to both!

 

You also don't have to buy the market, so your returns will not necessarily be correlated by it.  I'm not saying you have to go 100% in, but the amount of time spent debating whether markets are overvalued, would be much better spent just looking for one or two great ideas and allocating a portion of your portfolio into those ideas.  

 

If anyone can tell me they couldn't find at least two great ideas at cheap prices since the beginning of the year...well, they either aren't trying hard enough, don't know what they are doing, or are simply psychology at a disadvantage when it comes to investing in the market and should probably avoid it or buy ETF's.  Plain and simple!  Cheers!

 

 

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

This is my #1 gripe with the MAGA movement. 
 

Where is the legislative push to massively streamline immigration for people all over the world who want to do whatever it takes to come make this country great again? 
 

I’m all for deporting violent criminals, reducing handouts for illegals (and others), and legislating and enforcing immigration law that actually makes the country stronger.
 

Maybe it’s just that I live in California, but I like the immigrants way the hell better than 90% of the state’s other residents.  
 

 

 

I totally get your sentiment. Totally. Value add LEGAL immigrants in the right number is wonderful for this country.

 

Fixing the system is not easy, but locking the border has been a spectacular success.  The brutal part is getting out the people that should not be here - look how difficult it is to get out the violent criminals and fraudsters.  That is a large problem that still is NOT solved.

 

All I can say is, given time, we will get back to the right level of assimilation and immigration, but not until these other problems are solved.

 

I mean if you let 20M+ in illegally, and have only seen 2-3M leave - you still have a big problem.

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I know you think that every time CNBC tells you that rates ticked up a small amount, that the system is on the brink of implosion, and there’s nothing that’s gonna change your mind on that; but you still haven’t answered the question everyone’s been asking you. How’s this attitude of yours worked out, from a returns perspective, over the past 1/3/5 years?

 

I would ask even over 10 years!  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

10 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." They also said it was the shortest but deepest in U.S. history: NBER: Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021

People don't understand how close we really were in March of 2020. For an in-depth view, read Trillion Dollar Triage. It was written by Nick Timiraos, the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal. It's a great book.

 

Please give the pickup a slight and friendly push to get in in alother rill in the vinyl, then reread my questions, and try to focus on them while replying, Blake [ @Blake Hampton ].

 

I still don't understand which are the last two recessions you are talking about!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Yep.  Sanjeev made it real easy for almost anyone - Berkshire and Fairfax.  Highly diversified portfolios, great management and cultures, optionality for future growth and if you really want to get picky, select a valuation metric below which you add shares and above which you sit pat.  Could it be any simpler than that?  

 

Yeah, I would throw Markel in there too!  These are very good, solid companies that are diversified and will probably outperform the index long-term.  Honest management, shareholder friendly and less than half the P/E's of the S&P500 while holding tons and tons of cash in each of them.  For people worried about the S&P500, this is more similar to 2000-2003 than the GFC.  You may see undervalued stocks do perfectly well like BRK and KO did, while the very overvalued stuff comes down to reality.  The entire S&P500 isn't overvalued!

 

Then and when the S&P500 corrects, someone like Blake should put a quarter of his portfolio into it, while keeping another quarter in cash, and the remaining 50% in those three companies above.  And then he should just ignore it for the rest of his life and post on here all he wants about politics and economic threats, and tell 73Reds, Cubs and Greg to suck his big one!    Blake, you would be a rich man in 30 years, ready for early retirement and you wouldn't have to look at another stock again!  

 

If I could go back in time and tell my father something...it would have been to buy as much BRK, MKL and FFH he could instead of the real estate he bought.  It wouldn't matter nearly 50 years later that the 1970's Oil Embargo happened!  Wouldn't even matter that interest rates spiked in the early 80's, 1987 October Crash happened, 9/11, Hong Kong reverted back to China, Tech Bubble Burst, Iraq War, GFC, China becoming a super-power, the Pandemic, Russia/Ukraine, Trump got a second term, Closing of the SOH, or 227 on the Buffett Index today!  My father, then my mother, and finally me and my brother would be wealthy 20, 30, 40 years later and probably a large fortune today. 

 

Not that I'm complaining...I have nothing but gratitude for what I do have...but the would have, could have, should have might bite you in the butt!  Cheers!

[Blake Hampton]

Why do people think that unprecedented events can't happen?

 

Because they've never happened before?

 

That's nonsense.

 

Go back and look at human history. Unprecedented events have happened repeatedly, over and over again, throughout the entirety of our existence.

 

And history and data from the past have never offered a complete roadmap for the future. The only thing they can possibly do is give you tools in order to spot patterns. Interestingly, mathematics is often defined as the studying of patterns.

 

So much of the well-being of the United States, and the well-being of the world by extension, is currently sitting, and has sat, atop the credit and the faith placed in the United States currency. We have built a global economy, trade, systems of credit, the means for humans to exist at scale on this agreement that the United States would be good for what it said it would. This system we now live in came to be after WW2. Since then, much has changed, but this system we've created has grown massively and has created a period of unprecedented peace and prosperity throughout the world.

 

Now, we are overconsuming on a grand level, at a pace that we've never done before, which is compounding on top of massive overconsumption we've already done. This overconsumption, reflected in our massive and growing fiscal deficits, is putting immense pressure and growing stress on the Treasury market, and in-effect the USD, which in a multitude of ways is the foundation for the global economy and credit itself. What happens if this system breaks?

Is Warren Buffett wrong? Is Jamie Dimon wrong?

Buffett has been repeatedly warning about runaway inflation, most recently this Saturday during his interview, on top of years of warnings from Munger. Jamie Dimon has said multiple times that we're approaching a bond market crisis. Remember, this is the man who is the CEO and Chairman of JP Morgan Chase, the world's largest primary dealer by total volume and inventory.

The risks to Treasury markets are existential ones. In the future, they will ultimately define the realities for many.

[Malmqky]

9 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Why do people think that unprecedented events can't happen?

 

Because they've never happened before?

 

That's nonsense.

 

Go back and look at human history. Unprecedented events have happened repeatedly, over and over again, throughout the entirety of our existence.

 

And history and data from the past have never offered a complete roadmap for the future. The only thing they can possibly do is give you tools in order to spot patterns. Interestingly, mathematics is often defined as the studying of patterns.

 

So much of the well-being of the United States, and the well-being of the world by extension, is currently sitting, and has sat, atop the credit and the faith placed in the United States currency. We have built a global economy, trade, systems of credit, the means for humans to exist at scale on this agreement that the United States would be good for what it said it would. This system we now live in came to be after WW2. Since then, much has changed, but this system we've created has grown massively and has created a period of unprecedented peace and prosperity throughout the world.

 

Now, we are overconsuming on a grand level, at a pace that we've never done before, which is compounding on top of massive overconsumption we've already done. This overconsumption, reflected in our massive and growing fiscal deficits, is putting immense pressure and growing stress on the Treasury market, and in-effect the USD, which in a multitude of ways is the foundation for the global economy and credit itself. What happens if this system breaks?

Is Warren Buffett wrong? Is Jamie Dimon wrong?

Buffett has been repeatedly warning about runaway inflation, most recently this Saturday during his interview, on top of years of warnings from Munger. Jamie Dimon has said multiple times that we're approaching a bond market crisis. Remember, this is the man who is the CEO and Chairman of JP Morgan Chase, the world's largest primary dealer by total volume and inventory.

The risks to Treasury markets are existential ones. In the future, they will ultimately define the realities for many.

 

"Go back and look at human history. Unprecedented events have happened repeatedly, over and over again, throughout the entirety of our existence."

 

And yet we have prospered...and many of these events have been terrible.

 

"Is Warren Buffett wrong? Is Jamie Dimon wrong?"

 

Buffet and Dimon both say you should have most of your networth in the SP500. Are they wrong? Respectfully, I feel like you cherry pick their teachings.

EDIT: Dimon may not have stated SP500 specifically.

Edited May 4 by Malmqky

[Malmqky]

Always pays to be positive and an optimist.

[Blake Hampton]

Just now, Malmqky said:

Always pays to be positive and a rational optimist.

[Castanza]

46 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

People don't understand how close we really were in March of 2020

 

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades....how much money have you left on the table since then? 

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Why do people think that unprecedented events can't happen?

 

Because they've never happened before?

 

That's nonsense.

 

Well Blake - you're 100% right on that one.

 

IF YOU have the ability to predict those events - you will be a multi-millionaire. 

 

Unfortunately, mere mortals like myself - try to properly weight such events with little success.

I'll assign some probabilities, but usually there are about 5 or 10 other conditions/factors that will influence outcomes - that I just don't understand or am aware of - but if you can do it - more power to you.

[Blake Hampton]

I'd also add that the greatest mathematicians are the ones who discover new patterns.

This was always interesting to me.

[Malmqky]

But seriously, why is your situation unique @Blake Hampton where you don't followed Warren's advice of 90% SP and 10% treasuries or whatever it is?

 

For someone who quotes Buffett so much, I don't understand why ignore his advice in this regard.

[Blake Hampton]

Just now, Malmqky said:

But seriously, why is your situation unique @Blake Hampton where you don't followed Warren's advice of 90% SP and 10% treasuries or whatever it is?

 

For someone who quotes Buffett so much, I don't understand why ignore his advice in this regard.

Because that advice is for people who have absolutely no clue what they're doing.

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I'd also add that the greatest mathematicians are the ones who discover new patterns.

This was always interesting to me.

Sure, if the new patterns make them money.  Thinking outside the box is always a good thing if it makes you money.  

[Malmqky]

Just now, Blake Hampton said:

Because that advice is for people who have absolutely no clue what they're doing.

 

Fair enough.

 

Clearly you don't think Warren is leading the clueless to the slaughterhouse, so I assume I'm just misinterpretting your posts, and you think long term SP500 is a solid investment.

[Blake Hampton]

I believe, that long-term, human beings are incredibly resilient. I also believe in Buffett's mantra to "Never bet against America." The simple truth is that there is no real alternative to the USD as a global reserve currency.

But that does not give us everything. That does not mean that we can forever mismanage our country and act like fools.

And if you think that there can't be an intermittent period of immense financial chaos, you are wrong.

[changegonnacome]

24 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Value add LEGAL immigrants in the right number is wonderful for this country.

 

You’re right on the numbers thing. It matters now more than ever. My philosophy on immigration has shifted from the "always good" camp to something much closer to your view. Why? Because its not the 1800s or 1900s. Back then, lacking modern welfare states and strict building codes, society could easily absorb massive immigrant waves by rapidly constructing high-density housing cheaply and quickly.

 

Today, housing supply is deeply inelastic. NIMBYism, over-regulation, and tradespeople shortages severely limit our ability to build, especially in major metros where immigrants typically flock. Politicians like Mandani blame landlords for sky-high rents in places like NYC, but the true driver is a "lollapalooza effect" of conflicting liberal-elite policies: lax federal immigration colliding with crippling local housing regulations.

 

The answer is fixing supply (the whole abundance agenda) but its also about recognizing that many metros in particular are structurally short infrastructure (housing, medical). Very good argument for Trump's hardline immigration policy is simply that the country needs to catch up and digest the Biden-era immigration spike with deregulation led housing supply and then the most obvious of all during that time design an immigration system that solves for silicon valley Einstein level talent AND dishwashers/busboys in Manhattan.

[Gregmal]

22 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Because that advice is for people who have absolutely no clue what they're doing.

And what evidence do you have, that indicates that you do know what you’re doing?

[SharperDingaan]

We have the options market for the grey and black swan events; a modest annual insurance cost, and you're protected against the catastrophic risk. Thereafter; other than a long straddle on Trumps sudden demise, it's just everyday business.  

 

SD

[cubsfan]

15 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

You’re right on the numbers thing. It matters now more than ever. My philosophy on immigration has shifted from the "always good" camp to something much closer to your view. Why? Because its not the 1800s or 1900s. Back then, lacking modern welfare states and strict building codes, society could easily absorb massive immigrant waves by rapidly constructing high-density housing cheaply and quickly.

 

Today, housing supply is deeply inelastic. NIMBYism, over-regulation, and tradespeople shortages severely limit our ability to build, especially in major metros where immigrants typically flock. Politicians like Mandani blame landlords for sky-high rents in places like NYC, but the true driver is a "lollapalooza effect" of conflicting liberal-elite policies: lax federal immigration colliding with crippling local housing regulations.

 

The answer is fixing supply (the whole abundance agenda) but its also about recognizing that many metros in particular are structurally short infrastructure (housing, medical). Very good argument for Trump's hardline immigration policy is simply that the country needs to catch up and digest the Biden-era immigration spike with deregulation led housing supply and then the most obvious of all during that time design an immigration system that solves for silicon valley Einstein level talent AND dishwashers/busboys in Manhattan.

 

That's all we need to right the immigration ship.

It's a very good thing when it's measured, legal and meritocratic.