Political Posts

[rogermunibond]

39 minutes ago, LC said:

 

This is what blows my mind. Were these people given any rudimentary education of 20th century medical history? Have they not seen smallpox photos etc.? Incredible they are willing to gamble with their children's lives against medical science that has been proven over decades and centuries. They worry about "potential side effects" when they themselves were given all these vaccines as children, with no side effects. It's mind blowing. 

@LC I agree and they haven't seen or read that.  Nor did their parents probably.  Maybe their grandparents did but they didn't listen to them.

 

I would guess that only 5-10% of the US population know of the strides that public health and vaccination has made in nearly eradicating once common diseases.

[Cigarbutt]

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

Interestingly...

I also guess many would say the odds were that maybe they'd just as likely get these outcomes from the Covid vaccine itself.  And I don't know the stats from that.

...

Hello Mr. dealraker,

'Measuring' the odds and acting accordingly is, of course, a personal decision and some put more weight to 'personal' and anecdotal information but i sense that you'be interested in some factual information that is presently known.

The following is taken from "Open Evidence", some kind of artificial intelligence that needs to be (and was) verified by a reasonable human with some reasonable background:

-----

COVID-19 infection is a much more common and significant cause of acute renal failure (acute kidney injury, AKI) than COVID-19 vaccination. AKI occurs in approximately 16–34% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, with higher rates and severity in those requiring intensive care, and is associated with increased mortality and risk of long-term kidney dysfunction. The pathophysiology includes direct viral effects, systemic inflammation, hemodynamic instability, and microvascular injury, with acute tubular injury being the most common histopathological finding.[1-5]

In contrast, AKI following COVID-19 vaccination is rare. Large pharmacovigilance studies estimate reporting rates of AKI after vaccination at approximately 3 per million doses, with most cases occurring in older adults or those with pre-existing comorbidities. The spectrum of post-vaccination renal pathology is broader (e.g., crescentic glomerulonephritis, IgA nephropathy, minimal change disease), but the overall prognosis is generally favorable, and causality is not always established.[1][6-9] Observational cohort data in patients with glomerular disease show that COVID-19 infection is associated with increased risk of kidney function decline and disease activity, whereas vaccination is not associated with adverse renal outcomes.[10]

In summary, COVID-19 infection is a far more frequent and severe cause of acute renal failure than COVID-19 vaccination, which is associated with rare, mostly mild or treatable cases of AKI. The benefits of vaccination in preventing COVID-19–related AKI and other complications substantially outweigh the rare risk of vaccine-associated renal injury.[1][4][6][9-10]

-----

References and other evidence available if wanted.

Take the above with a grain of salt as, despite the above, i may not get the booster shot this fall (i don't quite make it to the health risk criteria released by the public health in my semi-socialistic jurisdiction that tends to (in the spectrum) put less weight to 'personal' inputs). Also, having regularly participated in pelotons before and benefitted from the draft as a free-rider, earlier this year, a member of my group who temporarily relied too much on testosterone,  touched my rear wheel. As you likely know, it's almost always the follower that gets hurt (possible political reference to DJT). i stayed with him at the side of the road until recovery, all the time silently repeating that, given some odds, it was better to be safe than to be sorry. Some kind of foresight required? Relevant to investing? Who knows?

 

 

[Castanza]

2 hours ago, LC said:

 

This is what blows my mind. Were these people given any rudimentary education of 20th century medical history? Have they not seen smallpox photos etc.? Incredible they are willing to gamble with their children's lives against medical science that has been proven over decades and centuries. They worry about "potential side effects" when they themselves were given all these vaccines as children, with no side effects. It's mind blowing. 

 

It's because we have elevated politics above everything else..It makes people so tribal that common sense get's thrown out the door.  I can see not getting the Covid vaccine or Flu vaccine if you're young and healthy. I've never had the flu not have I had a flu shot until this year. Why? Because I have a 2 year old in daycare and the kids nose is running pretty much every other week.

 

Skipping the standard children's immunization schedule is something special....Can't imagine telling my kid they got Hep B and have developed liver disease because I chose not to get them the vaccine as a child....

 

Excuse me as I go give my son autism ... er I mean Tylenol...

[Mephistopheles]

 

3 hours ago, Charlie said:

Covid vaccine and flu vaccine are both No-Brainer decisions to do.

My neighbour is a doctor and has visited the U.S. recently for 3 weeks and was surprised how anyone could

argue otherwise.

My parents are doctors. 

They are also surprised that somebody argue otherwise.

 

 

 

Agree with the sentiment from your neighbor and parents. I'm a doc myself, and it's just cringeworthy reading some of the stuff on vaccines from supposedly smart people like Bill Ackman. He also started posting anti Tylenol stuff now that his fascist dear leader ranted against it. 

 

I'm mildly concerned for pregnant women who may switch to Advil, and kill their babys' kidneys in the process.

 

Reminds me of Trump's bleach recs during COVID:

 

Increased poison control calls: Following the briefing, poison control centers in several states, including Maryland, reported an increase in calls regarding the improper use of disinfectants. In response, disinfectant manufacturers like Reckitt Benckiser (maker of Lysol) released a strong statement telling people not to inject or ingest their product

 

Not a cult whatsoever.

[rogermunibond]

Charles Mann's four part essay "We Live Like Royalty and Don't Know It" in The New Atlantis is very good and I highly recommend it.  It requires subscription though.  It's set up as an introduction to how our modern life works.  The advances that allow us to live as we do.  Part 1 - food system, Part 2 - water systems, Part 3 -  the electrical grid, and Part - public health system.

 

https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/we-live-like-royalty-and-dont-know-it

 

 

[Marco Van Basten]

Shocking article today on Bloomberg (originally published in UK Telegraph.)  If I did not misread it, French government claims that immigration is a NET cost to France of E 41bn per annum.  

[Sweet]

22 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Shocking article today on Bloomberg (originally published in UK Telegraph.)  If I did not misread it, French government claims that immigration is a NET cost to France of E 41bn per annum.  

Study in Denmark (I think) look at immigration into the country and nearly every immigrant was a net drain over the lifetime.

[Marco Van Basten]

16 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Study in Denmark (I think) look at immigration into the country and nearly every immigrant was a net drain over the lifetime.

Insane that after this, Western countries allow millions of immigrants.  Japanese & Chinese are so much smarter in this.  

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, dealraker said:

Interestingly along these lines is my decision this year to get the Covid and flu vaccine shots.  In the past I've just gotten a bit wired up from these things, but this year I felt pretty bad for 24 hours.  I had incentive though and of course just one example but briefly mentioned below.

 

Once a week now for about 30 years, I've as we call it "ridden the road" on decent weather days on a non ebike 'road bikes' ride with a bunch from my neighborhood.  Mostly older our group is fortunate to have a convenient trek along the lake here for 15 miles out and back.  Pretty views and just a few slower moving cars makes it ideal, we often know most who pass us.  As a group we can for a peloton where each rider can take a turn "pulling" while other riders draft, it forms a good group atmosphere where we are compelled to cooperate and flex to make it work.  It is fun and fast for the group which makes it even more fun.  While hard to believe, trekking along at an average speed of 20mph on a road bike is exhilarating.

 

On this ride has always, for the entire 30 years, been a 5'9" woman named Jenny.  Jenny is drop dead beautiful and powerfully athletic, and tough as nails as to dealing with life and what gets tossed her way.  She and her husband just recently went on a month long trip to several countries, they both returned with the Covid virus.  Neither has ever taken the Covid vaccine, she is now 58 and he 54.  He is a vet of the Iraq War, a big strong man.

 

My wife once said out of silliness, "If you'll take me to a Van Morrison concert I'll give you a threesome!"  I've often, in the presence of others we know well, brought her 'popular' (with me) line up with friends, and it brings the laughs.  Angela does occasionally say, "Well, I was of course just kidding...but if you get Jenny as the third I might reconsider!"  Yea, even Angela says Jenny is quite appealing!

 

Covid evidently went straight to Jenny's kidneys; they are not functioning.  Ten weeks ago she was a muscular beautiful woman, today she does dialysis.  Her husband is having severe respiratory problems, he's on his back in the hospital.  I guess neither Jenny nor her husbands issues could be proven to be from Covid.

 

I also guess many would say the odds were that maybe they'd just as likely get these outcomes from the Covid vaccine itself.  And I don't know the stats from that.

 

But damn what an outcome.  It has shaken all of us around here, "so close to home" as we say.

 

My two bouts of Covid have been symptom free.  Angela and I haven't missed a vaccine yet and don't plan on it.  

 

Sorry to hear that!  

 

During Covid, we had 7 people in our immediate/extended family die.  None died directly from Covid, but from complications created by Covid...all were older (over 60), a couple had underlying immune-related illnesses, and the rest were relatively healthy before getting sick.  

 

Covid itself won't kill you...the complications, in particular respiratory issues, is what takes its toll.  If you have any sort of immune compromised illnesses, you should almost certainly get both the Covid and RSV shot...as well as an annual Flu shot.  I'm 56 and I get them.  No complications...no side effects...nothing.  Same with my mother...no issues.

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Charlie said:

Covid vaccine and flu vaccine are both No-Brainer decisions to do.

My neighbour is a doctor and has visited the U.S. recently for 3 weeks and was surprised how anyone could

argue otherwise.

My parents are doctors. 

They are also surprised that somebody argue otherwise.

 

 

 

+1!  Yup, I don't know how many doctors I've talked to and all of them are just dumbfounded to this whole conspiracy around vaccines...just completely at a loss.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

I really think it is a personal decision.  Some factors include age, health and overall exposure.  Dealraker's story about Jenny is truly sad but also probably very rare for Covid to severely affect someone physcally fit and in great health.  Personally for years I put off getting a flu shot and never got sick.  The first year my doctor finally convinced me to get a shot I got the flu.  Sometimes stuff just happens.  Like young, healthy people who get cancer and die.  Life is not always fair.  I understand folks who believe that the "odds are better" when you get the Covid vaccine and flu shot.  But I also understand those who, for whatever reasons don't.

 

You see, it's not a personal decision.  Because your decision could indirectly affect someone else due to exposure or mutation of the virus. 

 

This was what was almost impossible to pound through the head of many people during the Pandemic...that it isn't just a personal healthcare decision...your decision impacts many others. 

 

Like the millions of seniors that died globally because someone walked into their home with Covid.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

@LC I agree and they haven't seen or read that.  Nor did their parents probably.  Maybe their grandparents did but they didn't listen to them.

 

I would guess that only 5-10% of the US population know of the strides that public health and vaccination has made in nearly eradicating once common diseases.

 

+1!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

 

It's because we have elevated politics above everything else..It makes people so tribal that common sense get's thrown out the door.  I can see not getting the Covid vaccine or Flu vaccine if you're young and healthy. I've never had the flu not have I had a flu shot until this year. Why? Because I have a 2 year old in daycare and the kids nose is running pretty much every other week.

 

Skipping the standard children's immunization schedule is something special....Can't imagine telling my kid they got Hep B and have developed liver disease because I chose not to get them the vaccine as a child....

 

Excuse me as I go give my son autism ... er I mean Tylenol...

 

+1!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

 

Agree with the sentiment from your neighbor and parents. I'm a doc myself, and it's just cringeworthy reading some of the stuff on vaccines from supposedly smart people like Bill Ackman. He also started posting anti Tylenol stuff now that his fascist dear leader ranted against it. 

 

I'm mildly concerned for pregnant women who may switch to Advil, and kill their babys' kidneys in the process.

 

Reminds me of Trump's bleach recs during COVID:

 

Increased poison control calls: Following the briefing, poison control centers in several states, including Maryland, reported an increase in calls regarding the improper use of disinfectants. In response, disinfectant manufacturers like Reckitt Benckiser (maker of Lysol) released a strong statement telling people not to inject or ingest their product

 

Not a cult whatsoever.

 

+1!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Shocking article today on Bloomberg (originally published in UK Telegraph.)  If I did not misread it, French government claims that immigration is a NET cost to France of E 41bn per annum.  

 

48 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Study in Denmark (I think) look at immigration into the country and nearly every immigrant was a net drain over the lifetime.

 

While I'm not saying that current global immigration policies are correct or sustainable, immigration is no different than citizens having children.  Children are a net drain to the economy until they are of working age and begin to contribute back into the system...it's at that point that their true long-term value starts to be realized.  Immigration is similar.  It takes time and capital to get immigrants integrated, working, and stable enough where they become a net gain for the economy. 

 

Now can countries focus more on skilled immigrants rather than non-skilled/refugee immigrants...sure!  But I would hate to be a country that simply turns their back on refugees in real crisis!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

35 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Insane that after this, Western countries allow millions of immigrants.  Japanese & Chinese are so much smarter in this.  

 

Can't speak for the Chinese yet, but the Japanese population and economy are heading towards a collapse of epic proportions one day.  Primarily because of their lack of open immigration to support the aging population.  Cheers!

[Sweet]

21 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

 

While I'm not saying that current global immigration policies are correct or sustainable, immigration is no different than citizens having children.  Children are a net drain to the economy until they are of working age and begin to contribute back into the system...it's at that point that their true long-term value starts to be realized.  Immigration is similar.  It takes time and capital to get immigrants integrated, working, and stable enough where they become a net gain for the economy. 

 

Now can countries focus more on skilled immigrants rather than non-skilled/refugee immigrants...sure!  But I would hate to be a country that simply turns their back on refugees in real crisis!  Cheers!

That was factored into the Danish study.   It looked at age and even descendants.
 

 

 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Insane that after this, Western countries allow millions of immigrants.  Japanese & Chinese are so much smarter in this.  

I don’t get it either.

 

The economics is also secondary in my view.  
 

European and Asian countries are predominantly and historically ethnic states.

An ethnic European born and raised in Japan might have Japanese citizenship, but they’ll never be Japanese which is must more than a certificate from government.

 

 

32 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Can't speak for the Chinese yet, but the Japanese population and economy are heading towards a collapse of epic proportions one day.  Primarily because of their lack of open immigration to support the aging population.  Cheers!

 

I doubt that.  They will have more kids again one day.

 

If I were China and Japan I wouldn’t take immigrants.

[Parsad]

35 minutes ago, Sweet said:

That was factored into the Danish study.   It looked at age and even descendants.
 

 

 

 

It looks like saying "immigrants" is too broad a generalization.  The chart indicates that it is primarily unskilled immigrants that over time don't contribute as much as they consume to integrate into the system.  I'd like to see the whole article as one chart doesn't provide me a lot of information.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

27 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

I doubt that.  They will have more kids again one day.

 

If I were China and Japan I wouldn’t take immigrants.

 

Stats suggest you are wrong about Japan.  Cheers!

 

https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/japan-demographics/

 

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, dealraker said:

Interestingly along these lines is my decision this year to get the Covid and flu vaccine shots.  In the past I've just gotten a bit wired up from these things, but this year I felt pretty bad for 24 hours. 

I get my shots later in the day  for this reason and felt my immune system working overtime  pretty good the same evening and over night (shivering) but was good the next day. Last year I had the Novavax (which is not an mRNA vaccine) and the reaction was way milder.

Edited October 2, 2025 by Spekulatius

[dwy000]

55 minutes ago, Sweet said:

That was factored into the Danish study.   It looked at age and even descendants.
 

 

 

US govt disagrees

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60569

[LC]

This again? Seems every time the country goes thru some nationalist-crisis-of-identity, the anti-immigration arguments come out. Nobody is complaining when everything is coming up aces

 

To me that is a sign that people use immigrants (i.e. "the unknown") as a scapegoat for their problems. C'est la vie! 

 

In addition to the CBO's analysis posted above, here is what Congress had to say:

https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116727/documents/HHRG-118-JU01-20240111-SD013.pdf

 

Immigration generally also improves the government’s fiscal situation, as many immigrants pay more in taxes over a
lifetime than they consume in government services. However, native-born residents of states with large
concentrations of less-educated immigrants may face larger tax burdens, as these immigrants pay less in taxes and
are more likely to send children to public schools.

 

Wharton's take (heavily borrowed by Congress above): 

https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2016/1/27/the-effects-of-immigration-on-the-united-states-economy

 

I recall arguing this same topic during Trump term #1 here on COBF. The data generally shows a net positive for the country, particularly from 2nd- and 3rd- generation immigrants. 

 

I find it difficult to sympathize with Americans who blame immigrants for their woes, and proceed to follow Trump down a gilded drain. These are the same people ignoring vaccines for their children but drinking bleach and horse de-wormer to cure COVID and believing Tylenol causes autism, but who won't pick up a book nor be bothered to educate themselves.

 

"The immigrant is causing a breakdown of law and order, a destruction of our culture!", says the masked ICE agent violating the Constitution. Irony abounds on this topic.

[Castanza]

5 minutes ago, LC said:

I find it difficult to sympathize with Americans who blame immigrants for their woes, and proceed to follow Trump down a gilded drain. These are the same people ignoring vaccines for their children but drinking bleach and horse de-wormer to cure COVID and believing Tylenol causes autism, but who won't pick up a book nor be bothered to educate themselves.

The science being followed is highly selective on both sides of the aisle…just saying…. But for topic sake 100% agree 
 

 

 

[Marco Van Basten]

25 minutes ago, LC said:

This again? Seems every time the country goes thru some nationalist-crisis-of-identity, the anti-immigration arguments come out. Nobody is complaining when everything is coming up aces

 

To me that is a sign that people use immigrants (i.e. "the unknown") as a scapegoat for their problems. C'est la vie! 

 

In addition to the CBO's analysis posted above, here is what Congress had to say:

https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116727/documents/HHRG-118-JU01-20240111-SD013.pdf

 

Immigration generally also improves the government’s fiscal situation, as many immigrants pay more in taxes over a
lifetime than they consume in government services. However, native-born residents of states with large
concentrations of less-educated immigrants may face larger tax burdens, as these immigrants pay less in taxes and
are more likely to send children to public schools.

 

Wharton's take (heavily borrowed by Congress above): 

https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2016/1/27/the-effects-of-immigration-on-the-united-states-economy

 

I recall arguing this same topic during Trump term #1 here on COBF. The data generally shows a net positive for the country, particularly from 2nd- and 3rd- generation immigrants. 

 

I find it difficult to sympathize with Americans who blame immigrants for their woes, and proceed to follow Trump down a gilded drain. These are the same people ignoring vaccines for their children but drinking bleach and horse de-wormer to cure COVID and believing Tylenol causes autism, but who won't pick up a book nor be bothered to educate themselves.

 

"The immigrant is causing a breakdown of law and order, a destruction of our culture!", says the masked ICE agent violating the Constitution. Irony abounds on this topic.

You need to be more open minded.  I don't blame anyone for my woes except for myself (the fault my dear Brutus is not in our stars but in ourselves.)  I understand however that someone born in the USA who is not very highly skilled will see his wages eroded due to competition from unskilled immigrants and his housing costs increase for the same reason. I also think that vaccination is generally a good idea, albeit Covid vaccines for 5 year olds do not make sense to me.  Rather than behaving like a condescending know it all, perhaps take time to think if the other sides' arguments make sense?  Oh, and I have a PhD in a quantitative discipline, and an undergraduate degree with honors from an Ivy league school.