Political Posts

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Iran needs Israel as a scapegoat and enemy for political reasons. The regime is concerned about politic unrest  and nothing is better to rally the people and troops  than a common enemy.

The question now is how far are they willing to escalate. They could threaten the Hormuz Straight which would essentially stop ship traffic from entering and exiting the Persian Gulf and at this point the US would likely enter the theatre with the Navy.

 

This is Khameni’s war (thus far)…. until it becomes people’ war, that is if Iranian civilian infrastructure is targeted. 

[Viking]

3 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

wrong on two fronts 

 

1) While Egypt and Jordan approach has been a “breakthrough” when it happened in Camp David. They are by no means warm relations. 
 

The aspirational model is that of Abraham Accord with UAE. 

 

2) Oct 7th was a Hamas operation to derail Saudi joining Abraham. Even Israelis know that.
 

What evidence do you have to make a claim that Iran was involved in planning of that operation.
 

Hamas is as sovereign as Israel is when it comes to enact its foreign policy.  

@Xerxes , I do not have any special insight. My understanding is Hamas and Hezbollah work in close coordination with Iran. If that is not the case then that is new news to me.  i will read up on the Abraham Accord - thanks for the insight.

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

I'm mystified as to what you think Bibi should have done.

 

Oh let me be clear I think Bibi is acting very rationally here...and he is doing EXACTLY what I would do.....destroying Iran, the regime, its nuclear program and pulling the USA directly into the conflict to get that done is in Israel's best interest....the question is if its in America's best interest to get pulled into the region to fulfil that goal on Israel's behalf...I'd humbly argue it is not...the nuclear deal under negotiation was in America's best interest. Israel decided to take that off the table and here we are.

 

 

Edited June 14, 2025 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

17 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Oh let me be clear I think Bibi is acting very rationally here...and he is doing EXACTLY what I would do.....destroying Iran, the regime, its nuclear program and pulling the USA directly into the conflict to get that done is in Israel's best interest....the question is if its in America's best interest to get pulled into the region to fulfil that goal on Israel's behalf...I'd humbly argue it is not...the nuclear deal under negotiation was in America's best interest. Israel decided to take that off the table and here we are.

 

Gotcha, thanks for clarifying.  That makes total sense.

[Spekulatius]

12 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Oh let me be clear I think Bibi is acting very rationally here...and he is doing EXACTLY what I would do.....destroying Iran, the regime, its nuclear program and pulling the USA directly into the conflict to get that done is in Israel's best interest....the question is if its in America's best interest to get pulled into the region to fulfil that goal on Israel's behalf...I'd humbly argue it is not...the nuclear deal under negotiation was in America's best interest. Israel decided to take that off the table and here we are.

 

 

Did Israel take it off the table or were the demands just not reasonable from an Iranian perspective. Iran had low level enrichment for a long time and this was disallowed and Iran was supped to source the low enriched uranium from other countries. I guess the maximalist demand don’t work all that time.

 

To be fair it’s not clear to me that Iranian regime really wanted a deal but rather tried to stall negotiations and do their thing. From the airman perspective, I think they see having nuclear capabilities as insurance policy and make sure they have a seat at the table regardless what happens in the region in the future. thats one of the lesson from Ukraine - never never give up nuclear capabilities. Now there is a question if Israel can truly destroy them or if it’s merely a setback and the program will continue but with more secrecy and better concealed. I think it’s the latter. 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Did Israel take it off the table or were the demands just not reasonable from an Iranian perspective. Iran had low level enrichment for a long time and this was disallowed and Iran was supped to source the low enriched uranium from other countries. I guess the maximalist demand don’t work all that time.

 

To be fair it’s not clear to me that Iranian regime really wanted a deal but rather tried to stall negotiations and do their thing. From the airman perspective, I think they see having nuclear capabilities as insurance policy and make sure they have a seat at the table regardless what happens in the region in the future. thats one of the lesson from Ukraine - never never give up nuclear capabilities. Now there is a question if Israel can truly destroy them or if it’s merely a setback and the program will continue but with more secrecy and better concealed. I think it’s the latter. 

The fact that it is called operation “Rising Lion” should give a clue even though not publicly stated 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Did Israel take it off the table or were the demands just not reasonable from an Iranian perspective

Well let’s remember that Trump ripped up the JCPOA as a terrible deal negotiated by bozos. The red line for Iran in that deal was that it would not concede on not having civilian nuclear energy program. Obama got a lot of flack for that when the JCPOA was signed and subsequently trashed by Trump. Feels to me like Trump was trying for a better deal and found out himself that he was running up against the same red line….kinda of embarrassing and maybe even beyond Trump’s PR skills to paper over the fact that any new deal was going to be a rehash of Obama’s deal he blew up.

 

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

To be fair it’s not clear to me that Iranian regime really wanted a deal but rather tried to stall negotiations and do their thing.

Since the JCPOA got ripped up their posture has been highly aggressive regarding enrichment and it is not Bibi propaganda to say that….the atomic energy agency confirmed as much a few days ago - https://www.newsweek.com/iran-fails-meet-nuclear-obligations-first-time-20-years-2084393

 

You put them together….Trump unable to extract anything more than was in the JCPOA which would be a political embarrassment (TACO Iran deal anyone?!?)…Bibi willingness to act aggressively unilaterally….international recognition of aggressive Iranian enrichment….the stars kind of aligned I think for Bibi to do what’s he wanted to do for 20yrs…and here we are. 

[Parsad]

15 hours ago, Hektor said:

The olive branch in one claw and the arrows in the other

 

This is quite funny...I was driving to my office yesterday, and suddenly I see a swarm of birds fly out of some trees.  A bald eagle came swooping in and with its talons grabbed on to a Mynah bird or Sparrow and flew away powerfully flapping its wings.  No olive branch...no arrows.  Just some prey!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

9 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Hope I'm wrong - but make no mistake about it THIS Israeli war cabinet led by Bibi make Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton look like Ghandi in terms of their desire to use military force.

 

 

I wouldn't go that far. 

 

I remember when the U.S. went into Iraq with zero evidence of nuke building material.  I remember telling people on the MF BRK message board that this was wrong, and they took their right wing claws out like Cubs to make mince meat out of my posts.  The U.S. was stuck there for almost a decade!

 

I'm not sure Bibi and his cohorts are any worse than Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld!  Remember, history is never the same, but often rhymes.  We've seen this story before...we will get through it like before...but none of these guys are truly original or better/worse than the other.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Oh let me be clear I think Bibi is acting very rationally here...and he is doing EXACTLY what I would do.....destroying Iran, the regime, its nuclear program and pulling the USA directly into the conflict to get that done is in Israel's best interest....the question is if its in America's best interest to get pulled into the region to fulfil that goal on Israel's behalf...I'd humbly argue it is not...the nuclear deal under negotiation was in America's best interest. Israel decided to take that off the table and here we are.

 

 

 

+!!  If anything, Bibi is taking advantage of the U.S. here.  Indirectly, it helps the U.S. and brings peace to the Middle East long-term, but the U.S. cannot deny Bibi or Israel...the fallout would be worse if they denied any involvement because it weakens Israel's position...something the U.S. cannot afford.  Bibi is playing 4 dimension chess...Trump is still playing checkers!  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

Pretty good summary of the current situation:

 

[73 Reds]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Iran needs Israel as a scapegoat and enemy for political reasons. The regime is concerned about politic unrest  and nothing is better to rally the people and troops  than a common enemy.

The question now is how far are they willing to escalate. They could threaten the Hormuz Straight which would essentially stop ship traffic from entering and exiting the Persian Gulf and at this point the US would likely enter the theatre with the Navy.

No, what Iran needs and thrives on is ignorance.  The UN is a prime example.

[73 Reds]

11 hours ago, Xerxes said:

wrong on two fronts 

 

1) While Egypt and Jordan approach has been a “breakthrough” when it happened in Camp David. They are by no means warm relations. 
 

The aspirational model is that of Abraham Accord with UAE. 

 

2) Oct 7th was a Hamas operation to derail Saudi joining Abraham. Even Israelis know that.
 

What evidence do you have to make a claim that Iran was involved in planning of that operation.
 

Hamas is as sovereign as Israel is when it comes to enact its foreign policy.  

Israel neither needs, nor particularly wants warm relations with ideologies that do not align with their own.  Co-existence is perfectly acceptable.  That doesn't mean that Israelis cannot do business and be friends with their Arab neighbors which is far more prevalent than reported.  Non-fundamentalists don't care so much for ideologies.  The Old City of Jerusalem is a microcosm of what can be.  Jews, Arabs, Christians and Armenians living in close quarters, even doing business with one another yet living far different lives.

[sleepydragon]

24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Pretty good summary of the current situation:

 

russia and now iran. Both selling oil to china.

if china goes for Taiwan, we have www3

 

[Spekulatius]

It is clear by now that Trump can’t stop wars from breaking out nor can he stop existing wars (Ukraine) I think this conflict is also related to Ukraine (Iran is an actor and somewhat aligned with Russia).

 

The USA in both cases now goes out of the way to be not involved. Hegseth saying that Article 5 is a maybe and Trump said the main thing before.. I think it’s clear that Xi Jinping looking at this and thinking now may be the time to make a move on Taiwan while Taco Don is in charge.

 

Another indicator of losing confidence in the USA is that the USD remains weak even when this conflict broke out. I can’t  recall a situation where the USD was not boosted by a flight to safety when a war broke out or there was a conflict somewhere. This is Mr Market voting with their wallet here and I think it’s meaningful.

 

USD is literally weaker than the Mexican Peso now. I guess Taco Don made the USD the US Peso.

Edited June 14, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Marco Van Basten]

9 hours ago, Xerxes said:

The fact that it is called operation “Rising Lion” should give a clue even though not publicly stated 

 

 

Can you please explain for those who are not too bright what you mean?  I clearly missed the meaning behind the name.  Thank you.  

[Hektor]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

This is quite funny...I was driving to my office yesterday, and suddenly I see a swarm of birds fly out of some trees.  A bald eagle came swooping in and with its talons grabbed on to a Mynah bird or Sparrow and flew away powerfully flapping its wings.  No olive branch...no arrows.  Just some prey!  Cheers!

A Canadian eagle, perhaps. The American one offers the olive branch besides the arrows 

[Spekulatius]

Saw this one the other day on my lunch walk. I am not sure it means anything.

 

Edited June 14, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Can you please explain for those who are not too bright what you mean?  I clearly missed the meaning behind the name.  Thank you.  

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_and_Sun

 

It is no secret that Pahlavi is a key backer of Bibi. 

[Zemergefen]

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_and_Sun

 

It is no secret that Pahlavi is a key backer of Bibi. 

Well,

Actually the name of this operation is from a Bible verse

 

" עם כלביא יקום וכארי יתנשא". 

Meaning... a nation shall rise as a lioness and will lift as a lion.

Edited June 14, 2025 by Etai Feigenbaum

[sleepydragon]

So will iran close Straight of Hormuz?

seems that will be quite effective to put pressure on US, and they now jabe have a new rail working to ship oil to china.

 

separately, on twitter, there are posts saying peasants saw large military movements at night in guangdong

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

... Another indicator of losing confidence in the USA is that the USD remains weak even when this conflict broke out. I can’t  recall a situation where the USD was not boosted by a flight to safety when a war broke out or there was a conflict somewhere. This is Mr Market voting with their wallet here and I think it’s meaningful.

 

USD is literally weaker than the Mexican Peso now. I guess Taco Don made the USD the US Peso.

 

You may be right here, @Spekulatius,

 

But it is likely also mixed with dwindling in trust outside USA in what actual American Politics is doing to the American Economy and thereby the US Dollar long term.

 

Here is an example from Denmark :

 

Berlingske - berlingsk.dk - Commentators - Commentary - Peter Kurrild Klitgaard [June 14 2025] : The United States is staring into the economic abyss – and neither of the two major parties is doing anything but worsening the situation.

 

Subtitle : Both American parties are collectively pushing America's public finances over the edge. Neither Trump's Republicans nor the leaderless Democrats are doing anything but making things worse.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard is professor at Copenhagen University in Political science, and he quite good at explaining complicated macro economics, by drilling it down, so it's on the rim.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

So, the 'Mar-A-Lago Accord' sentiment is cathing on and getting traction outside USA. 

[sleepydragon]

Israel is hitting Iran’s oil facilities. 
oil price a lot higher on monday

[Blake Hampton]

I saw that it was a gas facility, and they said that they "didn't intend to strike the plant and were targeting nearby air defenses."

Hmm...

 

I believe they're trying to avoid the orange ire.

 

Edited June 14, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[sleepydragon]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

I saw that it was a gas facility, and they said that they "didn't intend to strike the plant and were targeting nearby air defenses."

Hmm...

 

I believe they're trying to avoid the orange ire.

 

Yes, seems like a miss fire