Political Posts

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, adventurer said:

It was a beautiful call. There has never been a call like this before. I don`t think it ever happened in history. 

 

LOL!  Cheers!

[james22]

27 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Prem has probably made more shots than most people in insurance and investment history...certainly not perfect and certainly missed many...but he's made more than 99% of the people out there.  Yet, regardless of age, I've seen plenty of people criticize him on here over the years...under anonymity, with no proven record in 99% of those cases, and with the same swagger that you describe in Blake.  So he's certainly not the first, not the youngest, nor the only one! 

 

Sure, ankle-biter critics abound, all annoying.

 

But Blake doesn't claim any kind of record when asked. All he's shared is that he's 23.

 

Given that, his swagger-to-record ratio is higher than most.

 

27 minutes ago, Parsad said:

We have no fucking clue about James or anything he's done.  Could be sheer bravado...could be a fucking superstar...but we know nothing about him. How is that any different than Blake or most people on here? 

 

61, early retired, elite education, high-level career at world-class companies, successful investor (eight-figure NW, 130% return last year).

 

You needn't believe me, but I've shared all the above over the years here.

 

27 minutes ago, Parsad said:

So age is probably the very last quantifier or character to judge by!  Cheers!

 

In Blake's case, that's all we have.

 

He's been asked, but hasn't shared anything else.

[WFF]

3 hours ago, adventurer said:

It was a beautiful call. There has never been a call like this before. I don`t think it ever happened in history. 

.

 

 

Just saw Vietnam announcing a deal with France to buy some vaccines, Airbuses and more.   Maybe Trump needs to call and ask how dare they did not buy American, another 50% tariffs for you (tone/delivery: think Soup nazi from Seinfeld)

[Milu]

Just now, james22 said:

 

Sure, ankle-biter critics abound, all annoying.

 

But Blake doesn't claim any kind of record when asked. All he's shared is that he's 23.

 

Given that, his swagger-to-record ratio is higher than most.

 

 

61, early retired, elite education, high-level career at world-class companies, successful investor (eight-figure NW, 130% return last year).

 

You needn't believe me, but I've shared all the above over the years here.

 

 

In Blake's case, that's all we have.

 

He's been asked, but hasn't shared anything else.

Yes this is well said. There are a lot of people confidently pronouncing their opinions on this forum. While there can certainly be a smart young person, if they haven't made much money from their smarts then I am less likely to put much weight on their opinions. An older person with a demonstrated track record at least 10 years, ideally 20+ who has gone through multiple booms and busts and with a large self made net worth, is a lot more valuable to me. While it's not fool proof and there is always the element of luck, it's the best yardstick to go by.

 

 

[Gregmal]

I think the debating Blake’s attitude thing is getting a little long in the tooth. It’s pretty simple and not even a Blake thing. Ones credibility is based on a track record and judged by what we have. Someone who’s posted a dozen ideas with a 70% hit rate and decent but unspectacular insight is valuable. Someone who’s posted a dozen buys in the what are you buying thread, with zero analysis but an 83% hit rate, is valuable. Someone who’s made bombastic forecasts, provided little in terms of how to generate alpha, and largely been wrong on what’s they’ve communicated, can rightfully get some criticism for being dismissive or arrogant. The fact that he’s 23 is irrelevant in a more macro way, but I think it’s brought up because he’s shared it, and because many of us have been in a similar pair of shoes as him. It’s equally as wrong sitting here saying Prem Watsa has more money and credibility than 99% of folks and should be immune to criticism, or that because you went to a good school, have lots of money, and are old, that you’re immune as well.
 

I’ve brought up the example before, but @james22a decade ago on this forum was citing Hussman, talking up cash, and quite pessimistic. Not a whole lot different than what Blake is doing today. Today he(James) has made a fortune on crypto and specifically Microstrategy. That evolution shows tremendous growth, willingness to learn and adapt to markets, and embodies the no called strikes, wait for your pitch thing Buffett talks about. That warrants tons of respect and credibility.

Edited May 26, 2025 by Gregmal

[james22]

1 hour ago, Milu said:

An older person with a demonstrated track record at least 10 years, ideally 20+ who has gone through multiple booms and busts and with a large self made net worth, is a lot more valuable to me.

 

The real value of experience is actually less what you've learned about the market than that you've learned you can't know the market. You've been humbled.

 

I'd rather turn my money over to a humble 23-year-old than an arrogant 30-year-old who's only invested through a boom.

 

But we don't have to make such a choice.

 

We can invest with humble 94-year-olds like Buffett.

[james22]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

@james22a decade ago on this forum was citing Hussman, talking up cash, and quite pessimistic.

 

Exactly: humbling.

 

I don't know if Buffett has ever spoken of his switch from cigar butt to quality investing as humbling, but that's what it is.

 

 

[Hektor]

On 5/24/2025 at 6:51 PM, james22 said:

Just wait until AI comes for the symbolic analyst jobs.

 

https://instapundit.substack.com/p/the-coming-symbolic-analyst-meltdown

AI is already doing to white collar jobs what technology did to blue collar jobs in the past 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/business/amazon-ai-coders.html
 

At Amazon, Some Coders Say Their Jobs Have Begun to Resemble Warehouse Work

Pushed to use artificial intelligence, software developers at the e-commerce giant say they must work faster and have less time to think. Others welcome the shift.

[WFF]

1 hour ago, Hektor said:

AI is already doing to white collar jobs what technology did to blue collar jobs in the past 

Was on Meituan’s call,  and I heard something like AI is doing 50% off new codes or some obscene amount.  Also talks about a quarter of so Business Analyst using it to code or something.  

 

With increased productivity, and work replacement white is the new blue.  Almost feel that Blue is the new white, AI can’t fix the electrical circuits or plumb the toilet…

[Buckeye]

Reading President Trump’s Memorial Day tweet makes me so proud to be an American!  Sing it Neil!  I’m pleased to see that he’s using his position of power to pay tribute to those who’ve made the ultimate sacrifice.  

[whiskybravo]

31 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Reading President Trump’s Memorial Day tweet makes me so proud to be an American!  Sing it Neil!  I’m pleased to see that he’s using his position of power to pay tribute to those who’ve made the ultimate sacrifice.  

Did he pay tribute to those who’ve made the ultimate sacrifice in his speech at Arlington?

[whiskybravo]

Btw, not defending our borders allowing >10 million to cross illegally couldn’t be more disrespectful to those that made the ultimate sacrifice.

[RichardGibbons]

9 hours ago, james22 said:

He's been asked, but hasn't shared anything else.

 

Yep, and this is a nice example of Blake's good judgment. It was very clear at the time that your only goal was to discredit Blake, and that regardless of what he said--even if he showed that he was in the top 0.0001% of his age group--you'd scoff at it. And what's more, it would take the thread further down a destructive path.

 

It must have been very tempting to tout his achievements. So it showed very good judgment to recognize that it was a no-win situation and not take the bait.

[cubsfan]

45 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

Btw, not defending our borders allowing >10 million to cross illegally couldn’t be more disrespectful to those that made the ultimate sacrifice.

 

Or to the huge Latino population in out country, who have been unfairly tarnished and damaged by open borders. Certainly explains why Trump's popularity is skyrocketing among Latinos.

 

Big trouble for the Democrats, party of Hamas.

[John Hjorth]

9 hours ago, james22 said:

Sure, ankle-biter critics abound, all annoying.

 

But Blake doesn't claim any kind of record when asked. All he's shared is that he's 23.

 

Given that, his swagger-to-record ratio is higher than most.

 

 

61, early retired, elite education, high-level career at world-class companies, successful investor (eight-figure NW, 130% return last year).

 

You needn't believe me, but I've shared all the above over the years here.

 

In Blake's case, that's all we have.

 

He's been asked, but hasn't shared anything else.

 

James [ @james22 ],

 

I call you, either you provide links to posts about your yearly returns at least for the last 5 years, better more, or I have hereby called your *BS*. You've been around about a half year less than me here on CofB&F.

[james22]

1 hour ago, RichardGibbons said:

It must have been very tempting to tout his achievements.

 

Sure. LOL

[james22]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

James [ @james22 ],

 

I call you, either you provide links to posts about your yearly returns at least for the last 5 years, better more, or I have hereby called your *BS*. You've been around about a half year less than me here on CofB&F.

 

Searching this forum is difficult, but I've posted my returns in every yearly thread.

 

But here's a couple:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[james22]

2024

 

On 1/1/2025 at 8:54 AM, james22 said:

Sixty, fourth year of retirement, entirely dependent upon portfolio for income: > 120% 

 

2023

 

On 12/28/2023 at 9:23 PM, james22 said:

+16%

 

Funny year.

 

 

2022

 

On 12/31/2022 at 11:45 AM, james22 said:

Essentially even.

 

2021

 

I missed posting in this thread. Was there another?

 

2020

 

On 1/2/2021 at 12:54 PM, james22 said:

~10%

 

All returns this year should be considered within context.

 

I spent a week in the hospital (Corona) and another two quarantined away from my computer in early April - made it impossible to invest my dry powder then.

 

That's my excuse, anyway.

Edited May 26, 2025 by james22

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, Gregmal said:

 

I’ve brought up the example before, but @james22a decade ago on this forum was citing Hussman, talking up cash, and quite pessimistic. Not a whole lot different than what Blake is doing today. Today he(James) has made a fortune on crypto and specifically Microstrategy. That evolution shows tremendous growth, willingness to learn and adapt to markets, and embodies the no called strikes, wait for your pitch thing Buffett talks about. That warrants tons of respect and credibility.

 

One, is that luck or brilliance?  Two, to discount Blake today is like discounting James a decade ago.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

Searching this forum is difficult, but I've posted my returns in every yearly thread.

 

But here's a couple:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not to doubt you James, but on a forum like this...there's no actual public record proving any of this.  The best proven record by far is still Ericopoly's...something like 80%+ annualized over ten years on five huge, massive bets.  So your numbers are as meaningless as if Blake threw out his numbers.  Cheers! 

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

One, is that luck or brilliance?  Two, to discount Blake today is like discounting James a decade ago.  Cheers!

I think it’s pretty easy here, especially with the regular posters, to generally get to a respectable level of understanding about their investment process over time, based on posts. Both in terms of quality, process, and results. That’s the whole point here. If one’s noticed @james22 over the years, I think it’s easy to. Blake, like many of us have when we were younger, is stuck in a classic smart young guy state of mind. And from both the posts(which I cited above and he even requoted) and our own experience behaving that way, can probably arrive at the conclusion that the results suck.

Edited May 26, 2025 by Gregmal

[mananainvesting]

@Parsad: I think Ericopoly is no longer active here, any other platform we can engage with him? I went through some of his older blog posts, phew his calls were amazing!!! Also, him sizing his conviction!!!! 

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

One, is that luck or brilliance?  Two, to discount Blake today is like discounting James a decade ago.  Cheers!

Again, if you've been an active member here for more than a few years you've seen it first hand and at least can tip your hat and say it warrants some respect. Saying no it doesnt count anymore than a year to two of bombastic and incorrect macro calls is kinda silly. 

[Parsad]

9 minutes ago, mananainvesting said:

@Parsad: I think Ericopoly is no longer active here, any other platform we can engage with him? I went through some of his older blog posts, phew his calls were amazing!!! Also, him sizing his conviction!!!! 

 

Still on here, but rarely ever posts anymore.  Last time I checked, he was surfing every morning...not sure what he's doing now.  

 

The sizing conviction was the amazing part.  A lot of people had the same investments (either on their own or copied him), but the sizing is what turned $80K into $20M in less than 10 years.  He was all in on each idea with common and LEAPs up the ying-yang!

 

Not 3,000 stocks like Peter Lynch...one stock each time with extreme conviction.  More like Charlie Munger actually.  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Buckeye said:

Reading President Trump’s Memorial Day tweet makes me so proud to be an American!  Sing it Neil!  I’m pleased to see that he’s using his position of power to pay tribute to those who’ve made the ultimate sacrifice.  

Best of all he did not mention Veterans or Soldiers once.