Political Posts

[Charlie]

The first election results from Germany: CDU (Merz) wins:

• Union: 29 % (+4,9)
• AFD: 19,6 % (+9,2)
• SPD: 16 % (-9,7)
• Grüne: 13,3 % (-1,4)
• Linke 8,6 % (+3,7)
• FDP: 4,9 % (-6,5)
• BSW: 4,7 % (+4,7)

Cheers!

Edited February 23, 2025 by Charlie

[Libs]

17 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Given the trend over the last 3-4 months...I think 2 million is going to prove to be optimistic. 

 

 

1.7 MM is the latest 2025 estimate from the most accurate analyst I follow (Troy Teslike). And that number has been dropping.

 

[cubsfan]

19 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I don't remember a single person on here calling Zelensky a dictator until Trump did so this week.  If you can prove otherwise, especially as it pertains to you, please do so and accept my apologies.  If you can't, then admit that you simply reiterate Trump's weekly talking points!  Cheers!

 

No apology required @Parsad - I owe you and others one though- So yeah, I'll be more careful.

 

Here is what I said several times:

 

12/21/23
Right - unfortunately, Ukraine is going to run out of manpower. Already hearing about forced conscription of any able bodied males on the streets. With the media controlled by the government, and martial law in place , getting the real story is tough.

 

Nobody wants to see Ukraine fail, but recovering the Crimea & Donbas is a pipe dream.

 

 

2/26/24

 

Nice summary - he's a little soft on Zelensky though. He makes him sound like a freedom fighter, but I think the bloom is off the rose on the President.

 

Zelensky has suspended Habeas corpus, instituted martial law, outlawed political parties and elections, etc - so most of that is covered up - as you can't really criticize the guy as far as allies are concerned.

 

Personally, I'd like to see Ukraine get their US aid - but not without a secure US southern border, which is currently a catastrophe - and not too much to ask. Doesn't look like it will happen.

 

But any aid package needs to be audited as Ukraine is still among the most corrupt countries in the world. None of that is hard or too much to ask if you're giving a country $60B.

 

 

5/31/24

Well that is an excellent and important point. Ukraine itself will have to judge what price they wish to pay in lives. Our view shouldn't matter in that regard. As an outside observer, I do not think Ukraine can afford to lose a generation of young men and survive as a nation. In that regard, Putin has them over a barrell with an extended campaign. I do hope that Zelenksky is acting in the majority interest, but I have my doubts with all the corruption and thievery in Ukraine.

 

When you've suspended civil liberties, imposed martial law, canceled elections, outlawed the opposition party - one has to wonder about the current leadership.

Edited May 31, 2024 

 

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

So I apologize for saying this, when I didn't.

 

I don't see the issue of calling him a dictator when his actions (listed above) clearly puts him in that 

category.  Strongman, autocrat, big brother - figure it out for yourself. But democratic President he is not. 

 

There is no reason for all of these actions - particularly outlawing political opposition parties, free press and religious practices. 

 

 

[cubsfan]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Now share your corruption fidings with us - all of us - , here on CofB&F, Mike [ @cubsfan ] and @james22 .

 

That's an easy one John - but hey - obviously you don't believe it.

 

[cubsfan]

Who needs liberty when you have your own autocrat:

 

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-sure-doesnt-look-like-democracy-anymore-opinion-1844799

 

The catalogue of authoritarian abuses is growing in Ukraine and shows little sign of slowing. Under the guidance of the West's favorite autocrat—Zelensky—it has created a state-controlled church, taken control of all television news, and banned major opposition parties. This far exceeds anything that occurred in recent American or British history. Both of those nations remained fundamentally democratic during war, even a civil war. This latest cancellation of presidential elections in Ukraine destroys any pretense that we are supporting a functioning democracy.

[Ghost]

A random thought.

 

When did killing Commies (Russian/North Korean) go out of style?

 

Back in the 80s we cheered our hero Rambo in Rambo III and the Afghan freedom fighters battling it out with the Soviets.

According to the mass news media the Ukrainians are neo-Nazis.

In summary our current war we have Nazis killing Commies...what is not to love...at a mere cost of 300B.

 

 

 

Yes, I am aware Russia is no longer considered communist. 

 

 

[james22]

56 minutes ago, Ghost said:

In summary our current war we have Nazis killing Commies...what is not to love...at a mere cost of 300B.

 

Nothing, bar the humanitarian cost.

 

The problem with selling the war as Good v Evil makes it more difficult to wind down now that we've been rewarded (Russia suitably exposed/weakened) and only the risk (nuclear war) remains.

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Ghost said:

A random thought.

 

When did killing Commies (Russian/North Korean) go out of style?

 

Back in the 80s we cheered our hero Rambo in Rambo III and the Afghan freedom fighters battling it out with the Soviets.

According to the mass news media the Ukrainians are neo-Nazis.

In summary our current war we have Nazis killing Commies...what is not to love...at a mere cost of 300B.

 

 

 

Yes, I am aware Russia is no longer considered communist. 

 

 

when you say ?

 

about late 90s when this dumbass chose to murder innocent people. the newspaper clip below is from circa-“good guy” period 

 

After Rambo III and 9/11  it was no longer cool to help “freedom fighters”. Hollywood had to pivot. Conventional military were to be cool again. All Blackhawk, Abrams and stuff and tough guys in uniform w/ their hot girlfriend back home worrying about them for half of the movie and waving the flag the other half, and night vision goggles w/ green screen for the third half, were war was to be simplified and sterilized like a video game. 

So we got Rambo IV decades later. *sigh* ….  Looking back IV was cool movie. 

 

[lnofeisone]

23 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yea it’s quite incredible the narrative and how people are suckers for it. The most aggressive move against the “rich” folks over the last 2 decades was the cap of SALT taxes. Now you have the same guy who sponsored that talking about taxing sports team owners and eliminating carried interest while completely zeroing out taxes of tips. Yet we keep getting this “tax cuts for the rich” groveling from the folks that want to just sweepingly raise tax rates across the board on everyone….

That's not a balanced view. The latest proposal is to bring back SALT deduction. Also, zeroing out tips is a really tiny amount. it's about 10% of what SALT brings and not even a 1% change for the additional deficit.

 

Put another way,  of roughly 700B that is planned in gov't deficits that will be allotted to tax adjustments, 550B (individual TCJA, SALT, and TCJA Business) will go to high earners, and 150B (SS tax removal, tips and overtime removal, etc.) will go to lower income earners. How does this not amount as tax cuts for the rich? 

 

Never mind the fact that a lot of carried interest stuff is neatly repackaged in the TCJA Business so the impact of closing this loophole will be immaterial. 

[lnofeisone]

On 2/21/2025 at 2:11 PM, cubsfan said:

 

Pretty funny actually that no one gives the man credit for the ungodly corruption, payoffs, and waste he is uncovering. That is what will be EPIC.

So far he canceled $8B of stuff on a $6T budget. I wouldn't call that epic.

 

I would call his latest tweet with 5 bullets that feds have to send somewhat epic. Lord knows his dumb tweet cost the taxpayers $16M+. Imagine doing it every week and he is creating $800B worth of waste. He is also opening USG to all sorts of labor liabilities, you know, a hostile work environment. I am terrified as to what this will look like when Dems win back House/Congress and/or WH. That pendulum is going to swing so wide in the other direction which is truly unhealthy for the country and incredibly challenging for businesses to navigate. 

[james22]

44 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

How does this not amount as tax cuts for the rich? 

 

You can't cut the taxes of those who don't pay taxes.

[cubsfan]

9 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

So far he canceled $8B of stuff on a $6T budget. I wouldn't call that epic.

 

I would call his latest tweet with 5 bullets that feds have to send somewhat epic. Lord knows his dumb tweet cost the taxpayers $16M+. Imagine doing it every week and he is creating $800B worth of waste. He is also opening USG to all sorts of labor liabilities, you know, a hostile work environment. I am terrified as to what this will look like when Dems win back House/Congress and/or WH. That pendulum is going to swing so wide in the other direction which is truly unhealthy for the country and incredibly challenging for businesses to navigate. 

 

So I take it you don't believe there is massive amounts of waste in our federal government.

 

We can agree to disagree.

[Gregmal]

10 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Also, zeroing out tips is a really tiny amount. it's about 10% of what SALT brings and not even a 1% change for the additional deficit.

 

That's because poor people don't really pay that much in taxes to begin with. In terms of actual dollars, it's pretty low to begin with. Which is a further reason the "tax cuts for the rich" narrative is disingenuous. They're really the only ones paying taxes in terms of %s. The middle class gets "screwed" the most in terms of lifestyle impairment caused by government, but if we want to get down to it, Trumps tax policies are really the only ones that have come close to sniffing out real tax policy improvement. Every time a democrat gets near policy it's one of two things, outright rob high earners, or raise taxes for everyone. No party, has ever really done anything but pick the pocket of self employed folks either, which would IMO be a common sense area to start if you really want to encourage folks to earn their way out. 

[73 Reds]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

That's because poor people don't really pay that much in taxes to begin with. In terms of actual dollars, it's pretty low to begin with. Which is a further reason the "tax cuts for the rich" narrative is disingenuous. They're really the only ones paying taxes in terms of %s. The middle class gets "screwed" the most in terms of lifestyle impairment caused by government, but if we want to get down to it, Trumps tax policies are really the only ones that have come close to sniffing out real tax policy improvement. Every time a democrat gets near policy it's one of two things, outright rob high earners, or raise taxes for everyone. No party, has ever really done anything but pick the pocket of self employed folks either, which would IMO be a common sense area to start if you really want to encourage folks to earn their way out. 

I am reminded of Buffett's repeated laments of how little he [personally] pays in taxes yet when has he donated any additional money to the US Treasury?  Some people complain that Elon won't make a dent and other people complain he is cutting too much.  This tells me he is doing a fine job.  

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

 Some people complain that Elon won't make a dent and other people complain he is cutting too much.  This tells me he is doing a fine job.  

 

Right - they have absolutely no idea how to handle this guy.

 

When you leave the fold like Tulsi, RFK, Joe Rogan and Elon - they just lose their minds.

[james22]

 

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

So I take it you don't believe there is massive amounts of waste in our federal government.

 

We can agree to disagree.

What, in your opinion, is a "massive amount of waste?" Put $ values on it. 

[lnofeisone]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

That's because poor people don't really pay that much in taxes to begin with. In terms of actual dollars, it's pretty low to begin with. Which is a further reason the "tax cuts for the rich" narrative is disingenuous. They're really the only ones paying taxes in terms of %s. The middle class gets "screwed" the most in terms of lifestyle impairment caused by government, but if we want to get down to it, Trumps tax policies are really the only ones that have come close to sniffing out real tax policy improvement. Every time a democrat gets near policy it's one of two things, outright rob high earners, or raise taxes for everyone. No party, has ever really done anything but pick the pocket of self employed folks either, which would IMO be a common sense area to start if you really want to encourage folks to earn their way out. 

I tend to agree with you that anytime dems touch the tax code, their MO is "everyone must suffer." By the same token, Trump's tax code modification doesn't do a thing to help the middle class. Anyone in the $70k-400k is getting hoses by him. Anyone under $70k gets some improvement but the impact is going to be tiny (as you noted, they don't really pay bulk of the taxes). Anyone over $400k will benefit at the expense of those in the middle. 

[lnofeisone]

3 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

I am reminded of Buffett's repeated laments of how little he [personally] pays in taxes yet when has he donated any additional money to the US Treasury?  Some people complain that Elon won't make a dent and other people complain he is cutting too much.  This tells me he is doing a fine job.  

 

In terms of $ value, Elon didn't cut all that much on the $6T. Show me wrong. I'm open to seeing it. The amount of misery he brought to the Federal workforce is extremely real. The amount of illegal things he has done is also extremely real. The amount of liability he opened Gov't to is extremely real. You can try arguing that Gov't has sovereign immunity, but our Gov't also waived it for labor issues. If/when this admin gets replaced, the sheer number of tax dollars that will go to pay for all the class actions will be ridiculous. Talk about a waste of tax dollars. 

 

Eventually, Democrats will figure this out, and the pendulum will swing hard in the other direction. Those of us who have businesses and make significant capital investments don't do well when there is this much unpredictability.

 

I can tell you that I've deferred multiple large projects, and my suppliers and a few others call me every week to see when it will be back on schedule. Now, maybe $100k of projects that I had in my pipeline isn't a big deal but I'm not the only person.

 

In my main line of work, the number of contracts from private organizations that I'm tracking that are getting delays and cancelations is growing by the day. I'm in the AI field, with 85%+ of my work centered on commercial non-government entities. 

 

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Right - they have absolutely no idea how to handle this guy.

 

When you leave the fold like Tulsi, RFK, Joe Rogan and Elon - they just lose their minds.

 

Handle this guy? This guy is breeding the likes of AOC, who will enter Congress and be just as unhinged as him, and the handling of this guy will be merciless. the next time dems win anything they'll have morality police whip you if you get someone's pronouns wrong. Everyone will wonder how we got there but it is "this guy (i.e., Elon)" that is the impetus. Oh the irony all around. jfc. 

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

 

In terms of $ value, Elon didn't cut all that much on the $6T. Show me wrong. I'm open to seeing it. The amount of misery he brought to the Federal workforce is extremely real. The amount of illegal things he has done is also extremely real. The amount of liability he opened Gov't to is extremely real. You can try arguing that Gov't has sovereign immunity, but our Gov't also waived it for labor issues. If/when this admin gets replaced, the sheer number of tax dollars that will go to pay for all the class actions will be ridiculous. Talk about a waste of tax dollars. 

 

Eventually, Democrats will figure this out, and the pendulum will swing hard in the other direction. Those of us who have businesses and make significant capital investments don't do well when there is this much unpredictability.

 

I can tell you that I've deferred multiple large projects, and my suppliers and a few others call me every week to see when it will be back on schedule. Now, maybe $100k of projects that I had in my pipeline isn't a big deal but I'm not the only person.

 

In my main line of work, the number of contracts from private organizations that I'm tracking that are getting delays and cancelations is growing by the day. I'm in the AI field, with 85%+ of my work centered on commercial non-government entities. 

 

 

Handle this guy? This guy is breeding the likes of AOC, who will enter Congress and be just as unhinged as him, and the handling of this guy will be merciless. the next time dems win anything they'll have morality police whip you if you get someone's pronouns wrong. Everyone will wonder how we got there but it is "this guy (i.e., Elon)" that is the impetus. Oh the irony all around. jfc. 

<<In terms of $ value, Elon didn't cut all that much on the $6T>>

He's only been at it for 1 month.  Did he resign?

[cubsfan]

9 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

<<In terms of $ value, Elon didn't cut all that much on the $6T>>

He's only been at it for 1 month.  Did he resign?

 

I was thinking the same thing. 30 days into the job and miracles are expected at the bottom line.

[lnofeisone]

So is he doing a fine job or did he just start? Anyway, obviously, this will play out as it will play out, and we'll get to judge it with hindsight in mind. 

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

So is he doing a fine job or did he just start? Anyway, obviously, this will play out as it will play out, and we'll get to judge it with hindsight in mind. 

<<So is he doing a fine job or did he just start?>>  Seems to me, both.  Didn't realize they are mutually exclusive.

[John Hjorth]

A LinkedIn post by my [Danish] Minister of Foreigh Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen, as a token and sign of the current sentiment here in Europe :

 

 

I think it gives a representative and fair view of the actual and current European sentiment.

 

In short, we are about to finally get it and get real and house-trained, so we can stay home alone. It's a war in Europe, therefore a war for Europe to fix and to end. Thus for European countries to do what's required in that regard, thus get the big purse at its place, and pay!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

ISW - Institute For The Study of War [February 21^st 2025] : Ukraine Fact Sheet, February 21, 2025

 

 

Sources and supplementary comments etc. available in the article.