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John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted

Here, I'm using both quoting and screen shots, to provide objectivity together with contextual fairness and accuracy to the posts up stream by @Xerxes and @UK, I'm commenting on here - I'm sorry for the late reply here :

 

On 11/11/2024 at 8:54 AM, UK said:

And then maybe even Russia itself joins the alliance:). Sorry for the sarcasm, I am afraid that in this case or whatever the actual deal means, chances are going up as we speak I will have to start reading this 'living abroad' thread all over:)

image.thumb.png.ca03f0abbcb3f2f41f3b627055367d30.png

 

You guys are very good at thinking out, likely [I hope] low probality, thought provoking outcome elements of the total outcome space in this mess, thank you for sharing!

 

@UK, If you should reply in a heartbeat here, from the top of your head and your immediate thoughts, where would you go?, if you felt compelled to act immedially? Wagons West [to the other side of the Atlantic Pond, Joe Land perhaps?], south bound in Europe, or something totally different?

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Xerxes Grand Master

Xerxes

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Posted
8 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html

 

Some more escalation.


just like the China tariff that Trump put, everybody moaned and complained, and then Biden just kept …
 

These new “loosened” restrictions by Biden will be kept by Trump, as part of him driving up his negotiating position with Kremlin. Need to go hard before going for a talk. 
 

And better that it is done by Biden than Trump, leaving the latter in position of leverage. It is all part of Art of the Deal. 
 

Who knew how impactful that book would be 

John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Sweet said:

It's quite amazing how little this is being reported on.

 

Yes, @Sweet,

 

and naturally all over the place here in Denmark. This one I consider fairly good and informative, almost by now updated :

 

dr.dk - Blackout [November 20th 2024] : Danish fleet in operation for Sweden: Chinese ship closely followed after suspected sabotage.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

Another story from Norway earlier this year, thas has skipped my attention untill now :

 

Bloomberg - News - Video [July 11th 2024] : Is Russia Wawing War under The Seas?

 

Btw : We also have the same weird expression in Danish : It must 'in the sea' or 'under the sea surface', otherwise it would battles in tunnels filled with water! Pretty cumbersome and hard to create such tunnels!

Edited by John Hjorth
John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Sweet said:

Not good news:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0dpdx420lo

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

This is even worse news. Escalation like this is counting on Putin to act like a rational man. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/europe/ukraine-russia-atacms-biden-strike-intl/index.html

 

 

 

@Sweet and Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Both situations or events are closely tied to each other, by causation and war logic. It's about leverage, when both fighting parties have run out of steam in a stalemate, where both are forced 'to the table' to talk in stead of fighting, simply they then have acknowledged there are no other feasible options available forward for any of them by fighting, because they have both run out of steam. [Friggin' ugly in it's nature and consequences, but it is so.] [Military logic is so scrary, coldhearted rational and brutal that it is almost beyond comprehension, because it's about violence.]

 

I'll acknowledge that Putin's rationality is a huge questionmark and risk here, ref. Mikes [ @cubsfan ]s stance expressed above, which I respect. However I'm quite sure my respectful disagrement with Mike here is for Mike [ @cubsfan ] understandable, because of differences in perception of skin in the game. Because that is what it really and only is, if one thinks carefully about it.

 

Please think of, what were the actions and thereby messages sent from USA to everyone in those two occations USA has been attacked in history.

 

And please think of what did USA do, when it then had 100% skin in the game, because it was attacked.

Edited by John Hjorth
cubsfan Grand Master

cubsfan

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Sweet said:


Disagree, actually for the reasons you stated.  Hard men like Putin only respect power.  Too little too late I fear though.

 

Not sure if we disagree. My point is that this escalation may tip the scale to Putin's response using tactical nukes. A rational actor would likely not go there. 

 

 

Sweet Grand Master

Sweet

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Not sure if we disagree. My point is that this escalation may tip the scale to Putin's response using tactical nukes. A rational actor would likely not go there. 

 

 


With Putin nobody knows unfortunately.

 

I hope Trump can end the thing, but I don’t think he will be able to.

cubsfan Grand Master

cubsfan

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Sweet said:


With Putin nobody knows unfortunately.

 

I hope Trump can end the thing, but I don’t think he will be able to.

 

He will be dealt a  very tough hand. 

Xerxes Grand Master

Xerxes

Posted
Posted

Did Biden authorize it as means to torpedo and burn bridges … 

 

or was it in cahoots with Trump, with the view that the latter needs to go tough before looking for settlement. 
 

we won’t know till Jan 

cubsfan Grand Master

cubsfan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Did Biden authorize it as means to torpedo and burn bridges … 

 

or was it in cahoots with Trump, with the view that the latter needs to go tough before looking for settlement. 
 

we won’t know till Jan 

 

Good question actually.  I doubt Trump would want this, as it makes a settlement infinitely more difficult.  

Spekulatius Grand Master

Spekulatius

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Good question actually.  I doubt Trump would want this, as it makes a settlement infinitely more difficult.  

How so. If Putin thinks he is winning, there will be no settlement, I am pretty sure about they.

 

This is a gift to a Trump. He can keep the practice in place - he doesn’t have to do anything, or he can reverse it.

cubsfan Grand Master

cubsfan

Posted
Posted

^^^ Trump campaigned on no wars. He wants this war ended quickly. He's very much on record about that.  Russia is winning the war - yes. But an escalation into Russia with American missiles makes a dialogue with Russia, very much more difficult to conclude. Imagine if the Putin response to this incursion into Russia is to respond with tactical nuclear weapons? Now you have a huge mess for Europe & the US.

 

Biden is playing a very dangerous game here.

John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted (edited)

Mike, [ @cubsfan ],

 

If the above exchange between us is guiding for what's going to happen from here, as described by you above,  it's just totally devastating for us Europeans what's in the works, and about what's to happen, and we'll also - on top of that - loose a very important friend, for the future.

 

For your part, [likely - at least for you, I'm sure] the only really short term material effect is you are about to loose a lot of allies for the long term.

 

Then it's all about distinguishing the shades between friends and allies.

 

Friends back up friends,when needed, based on respect for already long term well working friendship, for friends' freedoms and rights to design and take responsibility for own lifes, to choose stance on whatever,

 

Allies concur on what they agree on, and choose to differ on anything else [most likely based on agreements written on paper].

Edited by John Hjorth
scorpioncapital Experienced

scorpioncapital

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Trump campaigned on no wars. He wants this war ended quickly. He's very much on record about that.  Russia is winning the war - yes. But an escalation into Russia with American missiles makes a dialogue with Russia, very much more difficult to conclude. Imagine if the Putin response to this incursion into Russia is to respond with tactical nuclear weapons? Now you have a huge mess for Europe & the US.

 

Biden is playing a very dangerous game here.

 

So the idea is that any nuclear weapon nation can invade and take over any other nation just because they can 'fall back' on a nuclear strike? 

 

John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

So a Chinese vessel with a Russian captain destroyed the fiber optic link to Finnland. Deserves some response, imo.

 

 

All that sh*te going on by now, that ship located and situated about 80 km NNE from me by right now. I'm not amused by that fact. I simply do not sleep well any longer at night because of it - worried. It has become a mental load.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

And then suddenly it also became totally clear and evident to me, why it last year was possible to pick up some cheap Swedish listed real estate : Sweden consists of, or is stuffed up with a lot of holes!, and some land. Caution needed not to fall in one those holes!

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