Political Posts

[Luke]

1 minute ago, UK said:

I admit Russia has its interests. Even Putin has his, perhaps over other Russians. This raellity is a tragedy for some of its neighbours, who also have interests. I am also not even saying they were completelly unprovoked. I do not know how to solve this. But I am 100 percent sure I do not want their way of life to spread behind their borders or any further either:)

Have you ever been to russia? Do you have friends from russia? Its a beautiful country, with beautiful culture and with beautiful people. I know multiple Russians that are just average middle-class that live a great life there, have enough money, enjoy their time with their loved ones, go fishing, whatever...of course there is poverty on the country side but I don't have to show you the poverty level in the US in certain areas...contrary to western media, many people don't necessarily hate putin and he even has quite the supporter base. It would be good for both sides to understand mutual interests, similarity in way of life and drive one gear lower and restart communications. 

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, Luke said:

It would be good for both sides to understand mutual interests, similarity in way of life and drive one gear lower and restart communications. 

Many countries see it like that btw, just look at BRICS.

 

From Ronnie Chan: 

 

 But frankly, this thing impacts everybody. And so I did devote quite a bit of time in my letter to this discussion. 3 things. Number one, I believe the capital flow in the world has been severely impacted and will change. And if a country can at will lock up people's U.S. dollar assets somewhere, will they continue to put money or assets in places which can be subjected to somebody's at will lock up, right? Even friends, allies of the United States are watching. Those guys are smart. They are not stupid, and they will do exactly the same thing as the less friendly to the United States. Nobody will talk about it. Everybody will quietly do it, right? However, [Foreign Language], sooner or later, time will -- things will service. And then it become a avalanche. And so I believe that the Ukrainian war is already setting in stage a gradual shift of capital flow directions in the world. That has been rather stable for the last 30, 40, 50, 60 years, but that has been changed. The second, that's capital flow.

 

The second one is the energy politics, which, as we all know, has always been very important to the world. And it is not a joke. 1703, Peter the Great built St. Petersburg and move its capital there, symbolizing the westward looking of Russia, right? 319 years later, finally, the west says I don't want you. Never ever before. And in some way, Russia save the Western world during the Nazi days, right? And so for the first time, they say I don't want you. So Putin said, I will go east. And that's why it benefits China. It can get energy and food, which both are deficient in China, especially energy, a lot easier than otherwise. And so when they look east and when China benefits, our business benefits, right? I can go on a lot more detail, but forget about it. Number 3, inflation. Did the West before they react to the Ukrainian war, factor in the possibility of inflation such as shortage of food right, and energy cost? And that will have ramification around the world. Think about this. Famine always creates revolutions and social unrest, right? And Africa, forget about it. I know I'm into too much detail. I know again, yes, tons of stories. Africa will suffer. And you will see migrants from Africa that go across the Mediterranean into Europe. And so you have all these. Why is America going to Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE, right? The first 2 are debt enemies. The President are begging them, please produce more energy. And those guys just go like that, right? Ignore it. And even Saudi Arabia and UAE, they are not listening either. And so that's why the United States have to relax at least relax -- talking about relaxing some of the restriction on trade with China. [Foreign Language] Sorry for the Chinese, the Cantonese. Sorry. Anyway, so I think that -- and all that means that China will benefit. I think China will have a better time in the coming couple of years. And then, of course, you have the domestic situation in the United States that worries me no end. The Roe and Wade, that being reversed. That is just the beginning. You will see a lot more social divide to come, especially if Trump would come back in a few years. But even if not, I think that the division there is serious.

[UK]

37 minutes ago, Luke said:

Have you ever been to russia? Do you have friends from russia? Its a beautiful country, with beautiful culture and with beautiful people. I know multiple Russians that are just average middle-class that live a great life there, have enough money, enjoy their time with their loved ones, go fishing, whatever...of course there is poverty on the country side but I don't have to show you the poverty level in the US in certain areas...contrary to western media, many people don't necessarily hate putin and he even has quite the supporter base. It would be good for both sides to understand mutual interests, similarity in way of life and drive one gear lower and restart communications. 

 

Of course I had. I have traveled to Russia and Ukraine since I was like five years old, because I had lived in USSR until I was nine and we literaly could not go elsewhere:). Later I worked for some projects there. I speak Russian, I love their literature, I have lot of former Russians or Belarusians in my circle and I have nothing against most of its people, as against people of Iran, Venezuela and perhaps N. Korea. Their regime is the problem though. It is their and some minority's interests above others. Look at Venezuela or N. Korea, this is a way Russia is going now too and nobody ask the opinion of the average Russian or he is going to a jail for 20 yers for expressing any. I was also much more optimistic about China and CCP once, but I am not sure anymore (at least for now). I like Chinese too:).

[Luke]

28 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Of course I had. I have traveled to Russia and Ukraine since I was like five years old, because I had lived in USSR until I was nine and we literaly could not go elsewhere:). Later I worked for some projects there. I speak Russian, I love their literature, I have lot of former Russians or Belarusians in my circle and I have nothing against most of its people, as against people of Iran, Venezuela and perhaps N. Korea. Their regime is the problem though. It is their and some minority's interests above others. Look at Venezuela or N. Korea, this is a way Russia is going now too and nobody ask the opinion of the average Russian or he is going to a jail for 20 yers for expressing any. I was also much more optimistic about China and CCP once, but I am not sure anymore (at least for now). I like Chinese too:).

Is Russia going the way of North Korea?? I really don't think that's an accurate description. North Korea is so far behind in development and Russia has a pretty good industrial base from which they can work with. It's just looking for other partners which ARE still there...China, India, Saudis, BRICS...

 

Freedom of speech is limited yes, whatever, doesn't matter to the large majority which is politically relatively uninterested. Would not be my perfect system. I have my doubts about the "freedom" in the US too, look at Snowden, look at the deep connections of capital, parties, and the military. Look at how the interest of the majority has been ignored for decades. I don't think the US can point fingers quite frankly. 

[Luke]

I am much more optimistic of the industrial base that was developed in china the last 20 years then what happened in the US. Those things will be the ones that matter, supply-chains, manufacturing power, control of investment allocation, and banks, access to natural resources, access to large talent pool and university network, a large science base, a hard-working population and work ethic, undividedness, and political stability. 

 

Most of these things China does better hence I think China will do better over time than most countries. 

Edited August 25, 2024 by Luke

[Spekulatius]

Russias industrial  base is pitiful and yes they can export energy to China, but the cost to build the infrastructure is huge and it will be paid by Russia, either via loans or discounted prices. In any case, they will get much less for their energy exports then they would from Europe.

 

Over the long term, they will become China’s gas station which won’t be a great economic outcome.

[Spekulatius]

Interesting - I ran a screen for high dividend stocks in HK (>10% dividend yield as well as some quality and debt metrics and got a decent list). However ,I have not heard about any of these stocks. - does any of those look familiar?  I am sure there are some gems there but it’s very hard to do research from scratch in China.

	1171	Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited	HKG	1.18	12.62%	17.63%	1.30
	1378	China Hongqiao Group Limited	HKG	0.93	11.43%	6.25%	1.33
	9979	Greentown Management Holdings Company Limited	HKG	(1.77)	10.44%	18.92%	0.57
	777	NetDragon Websoft Holdings Limited	HKG	(0.70)	14.08%	7.93%	1.40
	1126	Dream International Limited	HKG	(1.09)	11.58%	20.60%	0.56
	1830	Perfect Medical Health Management Limited	HKG	(0.52)	12.30%	9.31%	0.30
	1571	Xin Point Holdings Limited	HKG	(0.57)	11.51%	9.64%	0.36
	6896	Golden Throat Holdings Group Company Limited	HKG	(1.76)	15.42%	15.96%	0.39
	9616	Neusoft Education Technology Co. Limited	HKG	1.13	12.12%	26.63%	0.33
	398	Oriental Watch Holdings Limited	HKG	(1.23)	15.47%	26.62%	0.42
	9908	JiaXing Gas Group Co., Ltd.	HKG	0.03	11.37%	7.26%	0.97
	1692	Town Ray Holdings Limited	HKG	(0.94)	10.75%	28.37%	0.32
	926	Besunyen Holdings Company Limited	HKG	2.09	50.14%	6.12%	0.46

 

 

 

Edited August 25, 2024 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

I did some reading today about Mr. Putin, purposed to refresh my own memory on factual basic data about him and other stuff that I thought of relevance.

 

Putin is born on October 7^th 1952, so he can be around and de facto lead and rule Russia for a long time still, depending on his health development over time, unless somebody succeeds in overturning and or removing him, one way or another.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

As it has been touched above by @Luke somewhere, it appears as the Russian population does not care for, or are interested in the affairs and the well being of its country, being disengaged and without real interest, so in a way the Russian people has got what they have asked for, by 'friendly self-service' from an enterprising autocrat.

 

A change in the Russian people policical minds and attitudes towards politics and own democratic responsibilities are imperative for a change to the better.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Today, I also stumbled on this, wich I consider great informative and casual reading / listening, for those who may be interested :

 

Website : Дворец для Путина. История самой большой взятки [<- English : 'Palace for Putin. The history of the biggest bribe']. palace.navalny.com.

 

Hint : Fire up under Google Earth, search for "Praskoveevka, Krasnodar kraj, Russia", look towards the coast southbound from there [It's so big, that you really can't miss it, if you do not zoom in too much for starters].

 

The damn thing is real, and is actually there.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The man is an anachronism.

Edited August 25, 2024 by John Hjorth
Spelling

[John Hjorth]

New Ukrainian hardware ready for implementation :

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

@John Hjorth my guess is that those Russian that do care and have some eduction will leave the country. People are a countries  biggest resource by far, so the brain drain will just slowly bleed out Russia in the long run.

 

Putin sees himself  as a modern day Czar playing a 19 century rules in the 21 Century. He truly is an anachronism, palace and all.

 

And Navalny is dead.

[ValueMaven]

Think about how weak the Russian military is!  This has truly been an amazing insight for NATO/China and even Iran!  Poorly trained, weak chain of command and very poor operational expertise.  This has been one of the best investments for the USA.  Not a single American solider has died - yet the Russian Army has been weakened/killed by at least 300-400,000.  Regan would never have believed it!

 

I wonder why other anti-Russian areas like Georgia, Chechnya fighters, and even some of the former Soviet countries have yet to rally together publicly agaisnt this and even start to attack Russia directly!

[John Hjorth]

20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

My guess is that those Russian that do care and have some education will leave the country. People are a countries  biggest resource by far, so the brain drain will just slowly bleed out Russia in the long run. ...

 

Yes, combine that with the stongly gender biased [male] crash in the total population within certain age brackets [young , but adult age] caused by the casualties of the ongoing war.

 

On the long perspective, the flee of the youth to a better life elsewhere with better living conditions and opportunities will be Putins absolutely worst adversary long term forward.

 

He is pretty much without any real kind of counter measures, based on what he himself has decided - limited himself to - to keep in his toolbox.

 

It's really depressing to think about.

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Interesting - I ran a screen for high dividend stocks in HK (>10% dividend yield as well as some quality and debt metrics and got a decent list). However ,I have not heard about any of these stocks. - does any of those look familiar?  I am sure there are some gems there but it’s very hard to do research from scratch in China.

	1171	Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited	HKG	1.18	12.62%	17.63%	1.30
	1378	China Hongqiao Group Limited	HKG	0.93	11.43%	6.25%	1.33
	9979	Greentown Management Holdings Company Limited	HKG	(1.77)	10.44%	18.92%	0.57
	777	NetDragon Websoft Holdings Limited	HKG	(0.70)	14.08%	7.93%	1.40
	1126	Dream International Limited	HKG	(1.09)	11.58%	20.60%	0.56
	1830	Perfect Medical Health Management Limited	HKG	(0.52)	12.30%	9.31%	0.30
	1571	Xin Point Holdings Limited	HKG	(0.57)	11.51%	9.64%	0.36
	6896	Golden Throat Holdings Group Company Limited	HKG	(1.76)	15.42%	15.96%	0.39
	9616	Neusoft Education Technology Co. Limited	HKG	1.13	12.12%	26.63%	0.33
	398	Oriental Watch Holdings Limited	HKG	(1.23)	15.47%	26.62%	0.42
	9908	JiaXing Gas Group Co., Ltd.	HKG	0.03	11.37%	7.26%	0.97
	1692	Town Ray Holdings Limited	HKG	(0.94)	10.75%	28.37%	0.32
	926	Besunyen Holdings Company Limited	HKG	2.09	50.14%	6.12%	0.46

 

 

 

In case it matters to you, IRS does not consider Hong Kong and Singapore dividends qualified dividends.

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

Think about how weak the Russian military is!  This has truly been an amazing insight for NATO/China and even Iran!  Poorly trained, weak chain of command and very poor operational expertise.  This has been one of the best investments for the USA.  Not a single American solider has died - yet the Russian Army has been weakened/killed by at least 300-400,000.  Regan would never have believed it!

 

I wonder why other anti-Russian areas like Georgia, Chechnya fighters, and even some of the former Soviet countries have yet to rally together publicly agaisnt this and even start to attack Russia directly!

 

That would be a tall order for Georgia, etc - perhaps a guerrilla war again.

 

But Russia has complete air superiority and vast artillery resources. Those areas have none.

War could be waged in the country side, but not the cities/towns.

[RichardGibbons]

7 hours ago, Luke said:

Freedom of speech is limited yes, whatever, doesn't matter to the large majority which is politically relatively uninterested.

 

This cracks me up.

 

Putin murders a bunch of people who speak out against him politically, then Luke explains that free speech is relatively unnecessary because the large majority is politically relatively uninterested.

 

Can't imagine why the large majority of people would be politically uninterested after seeing their politically interested friends murdered....

[changegonnacome]

8 hours ago, Luke said:

The US wouldn't accept 1/10th of what they did with ukraine if China would do it in Canada, Mexico or whatever. 

 

Precisely......nationalism creates a cognitive blind spot in most everybody...you can see it on this thread..very little self-reflection on any role we in the West may have played.....we are completely innocent benign participants.........of course our nation's intentions are always good...yet everything Russia/Iran/China does however benign (weather balloons perhaps) is really part of some wider nefarious plot to get us.

 

In the case of Ukraine of course we only wanted to help them join the 'West'....and in Ukraine's case I'm going to say that chiefly the motivation was indeed a do gooder one....that the US 'project' in Ukraine was that of a kind of evangelical liberal democratic project...it meant no ill intent towards Russia..that it pissed them off was kind of a bonus though......the issue of course....is not whether your intentions are benign or not...once you edge up to your chief rivals borders.......your rival, who's main concern is existential survival....is ultimately forced due to that existentialism (which is at the root of national security)....to interpret benign moves as really acts of conspiratorial aggression.....when the stakes are as high as they are in international security......your action interpretation options boil down to one answer....whatever is happening here is part of wider plot to destroy our country and way of life.

 

The old story of Europe (except Nazi germany) is waves of increased defense spending...predominantly benign in nature....triggering paranoia in your neighbour....which leads to a ratcheting of spend and with it even greater suspicion.....and where at a certain point one rival decides that actually the best next defensive move is a good offensive one and pulls the trigger on an overt act of aggression which escalates.

 

The second misjudgment apart from the very common and more understood nationalism blind spot.....and I see it oft repeated in this thread....is the Hitler effect......its analogues to what someone recently called the Amazon effect in investing....the tendency to see a future Amazon everywhere .......which drives a lot of growth investing optimism.

 

The reality - Amazon is a deeply unusual company, with a deeply unusual leader born at deeply unusual inflection point (birth of the internet)......that confluence of events & people is a once in a 200yr event......to see Amazon like opportunities everywhere is really crazy idea......but people do it all the time and use it in their reasoning.

 

Well in international politics & security studies......there's the same phenomenon.......I call it the Hitler effect....Hitler was deeply unusual person driven as he was by grievance & anger.....that he could rise to be leader of a country speaks to how unusual a time it was......that that country fell under his spell even more so given they came out of the great depression better than anybody else in the world........is a fluke of timing & the central keynesian re-armanant industrial policy he chose.........Hitler was once in 200yr phenomenon (like Amazon)......on top of all this he was congenital aggressor....jumped up on speed and hell bent on imperialism while building a jewish murder machine... this is a once in a 200, maybe 300yr psycho event.....yet every enemy we've faced since then we transpose the Hitler template on to them. It's the same here with all this nonsense around Russia....and Putin's imperial aspirations. Its lazy 'hitlerization'....like Amazonificiation in investing.

 

The Hitler effect, like the Amazon effect...is really a heuristic error....and that is to see the second coming of Adolf Hitler everywhere you look....in Putin, in Xi....in Saddam Hussein. This heuristic error is all over this thread......Putin the congenital aggressor....invading to take over Ukraine in March 2022....hell bent on Ukraine first....then re-constituting the USSR next (poland etc.)......then onwards to Western Europe if we let him.....you can't do a deal with him (appease him!) as every deal is only a stepping stone to him scaling up his military.

 

The problem for these folks - is the evidence just does not fit .......the paltry capability of Russian military capability during this war (men/machinery/artillery)....demonstraties irrefutably that Russia pre-March 2022....had a military barely equipped to defend its homeland.....this was not a imperialist expansionary war machine Putin had been secretly building to fulfil his imperialist dreams. 

 

Secondly the Ukraine invasion....designed, we say in the West, to invade, conquer and occupy Ukraine..then on to Poland perhaps after ...its a laughable theory....190,000 troops, maybe 250,000 at the top end amassed over the border in Belarus the day before the invasion .....give me a break......not enough bodies to occupy half the city of Kiev....christ I've been to rock concerts with more people.

 

Like the Amazon effect.....the Hitler effect in international security is a kind of cognitive distortion which when married to the cognitive bias inherent in nationalism (that we all suffer from)....is exactly what Munger might call a lollapalooza effect.....people's brains are so scrambled re: Putin & Russia....that they can barely see or think straight.....Putin is Hitler v2.0, we are allies on the side of the angels, Russia is Nazi Germany, comprising on anything with Putin makes you Neville Chamberlain & of course god forbid that when Putin goes on a rant about Western encroachment into Russia domain & US interference & imperialism globally that he might even have a sliver of a point that has validity.

[Luke]

11 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

This cracks me up.

 

Putin murders a bunch of people who speak out against him politically, then Luke explains that free speech is relatively unnecessary because the large majority is politically relatively uninterested.

You really wanna twist it dont you? We talked about quality of life in russia, yes, freedom of speech is limited, doesn't mean life is terrible. Look at China, same is true. Does the majority care about that in russia? Probably not? Its not like that they are all slaves in misery, contrary to north Korea...

11 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

Can't imagine why the large majority of people would be politically uninterested after seeing their politically interested friends murdered....

Way to put it I guess, "murdered" "hell hole" "north korea" "Venezuela". Its not the political and economic reality in russia. For the large amount of people. 

 

I personally want freedom of speech and I oppose the war lead by russia btw. 

Edited August 25, 2024 by Luke

[Spekulatius]

LOL:

 

[RichardGibbons]

5 minutes ago, Luke said:

You really wanna twist it dont you?

 

Well, the thing is, refuting you with an obvious counter-argument isn't actually twisting things.

I get that you want to completely limit the scope of the discussion because that's the only way that you can pretend your arguments make sense.  But that's not actually how the world, or discussions, work.

 

I mean, look at this:

 

12 minutes ago, Luke said:

Way to put it I guess, "murdered" "hell hole" "north korea" "Venezuela". Its not the political and economic reality in russia. For the large amount of people.

 

Yeah, the majority of people in Russia didn't get murdered. You're making an argument that because the majority of people in Russia didn't get murdered by the state, it's cool.

[Luke]

21 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

Well, the thing is, refuting you with an obvious counter-argument isn't actually twisting things.

Which counter argument? Counter argument against what? 

21 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

I get that you want to completely limit the scope of the discussion because that's the only way that you can pretend your arguments make sense.  But that's not actually how the world, or discussions, work.

What? I am completely limiting the scope of discussion to pretend my arguments make sense...okay? You have literally written 0 text in this discussion and neither have responded to anything. 

21 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

I mean, look at this:

 

 

Yeah, the majority of people in Russia didn't get murdered. You're making an argument that because the majority of people in Russia didn't get murdered by the state, it's cool.

If that's your serious level of argument then I don't think we need to communicate about this conflict at all  All the best! 

[Luke]

49 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Precisely......nationalism creates a cognitive blind spot in most everybody...you can see it on this thread..very little self-reflection on any role we in the West may have played.....we are completely innocent benign participants.........of course our nation's intentions are always good...yet everything Russia/Iran/China does however benign (weather balloons perhaps) is really part of some wider nefarious plot to get us.

+1

49 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

In the case of Ukraine of course we only wanted to help them join the 'West'....and in Ukraine's case I'm going to say that chiefly the motivation was indeed a do gooder one....that the US 'project' in Ukraine was that of a kind of evangelical liberal democratic project...it meant no ill intent towards Russia..that it pissed them off was kind of a bonus though......the issue of course....is not whether your intentions are benign or not...once you edge up to your chief rivals borders.......your rival, who's main concern is existential survival....is ultimately forced due to that existentialism (which is at the root of national security)....to interpret benign moves as really acts of conspiratorial aggression.....when the stakes are as high as they are in international security......your action interpretation options boil down to one answer....whatever is happening here is part of wider plot to destroy our country and way of life.

I think there were absolutely ill intentions against Russia. Respectable partners would consider each other's position, communicate, and be transparent about their plans. The US plays the same dirty game as everyone, gain influence, move countries towards one's own interests...capital was eyeing Ukraine... the US military was eyeing Ukraine...i am not saying Russia is a saint here but Ukraine is a playground of a conflict between the US and Russia and secondary between the US and the EU as you have already written. No side does whats best for Ukraine IMO->independent politics, neutral position like Switzerland, etc, tight relationship with russia. Of course with the political and economic capital the US has they can heavily influence ukraine leadership. We don't hear much of it but I can only estimate whats going on behind the scenes with selensky. 

49 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

The old story of Europe (except Nazi germany) is waves of increased defense spending...predominantly benign in nature....triggering paranoia in your neighbour....which leads to a ratcheting of spend and with it even greater suspicion.....and where at a certain point one rival decides that actually the best next defensive move is a good offensive one and pulls the trigger on an overt act of aggression which escalates.

 

The second misjudgment apart from the very common and more understood nationalism blind spot.....and I see it oft repeated in this thread....is the Hitler effect......its analogues to what someone recently called the Amazon effect in investing....the tendency to see a future Amazon everywhere .......which drives a lot of growth investing optimism.

 

The reality - Amazon is a deeply unusual company, with a deeply unusual leader born at deeply unusual inflection point (birth of the internet)......that confluence of events & people is a once in a 200yr event......to see Amazon like opportunities everywhere is really crazy idea......but people do it all the time and use it in their reasoning.

+1

49 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Well in international politics & security studies......there's the same phenomenon.......I call it the Hitler effect....Hitler was deeply unusual person driven as he was by grievance & anger.....that he could rise to be leader of a country speaks to how unusual a time it was......that that country fell under his spell even more so given they came out of the great depression better than anybody else in the world........is a fluke of timing & the central keynesian re-armanant industrial policy he chose.........Hitler was once in 200yr phenomenon (like Amazon)......on top of all this he was congenital aggressor....jumped up on speed and hell bent on imperialism while building a jewish murder machine... this is a once in a 200, maybe 300yr psycho event.....yet every enemy we've faced since then we transpose the Hitler template on to them. It's the same here with all this nonsense around Russia....and Putin's imperial aspirations. Its lazy 'hitlerization'....like Amazonificiation in investing.

 

The Hitler effect, like the Amazon effect...is really a heuristic error....and that is to see the second coming of Adolf Hitler everywhere you look....in Putin, in Xi....in Saddam Hussein. This heuristic error is all over this thread......Putin the congenital aggressor....invading to take over Ukraine in March 2022....hell bent on Ukraine first....then re-constituting the USSR next (poland etc.)......then onwards to Western Europe if we let him.....you can't do a deal with him (appease him!) as every deal is only a stepping stone to him scaling up his military.

 

The problem for these folks - is the evidence just does not fit .......the paltry capability of Russian military capability during this war (men/machinery/artillery)....demonstraties irrefutably that Russia pre-March 2022....had a military barely equipped to defend its homeland.....this was not a imperialist expansionary war machine Putin had been secretly building to fulfil his imperialist dreams. 

 

Secondly the Ukraine invasion....designed, we say in the West, to invade, conquer and occupy Ukraine..then on to Poland perhaps after ...its a laughable theory....190,000 troops, maybe 250,000 at the top end amassed over the border in Belarus the day before the invasion .....give me a break......not enough bodies to occupy half the city of Kiev....christ I've been to rock concerts with more people.

 

Like the Amazon effect.....the Hitler effect in international security is a kind of cognitive distortion which when married to the cognitive bias inherent in nationalism (that we all suffer from)....is exactly what Munger might call a lollapalooza effect.....people's brains are so scrambled re: Putin & Russia....that they can barely see or think straight.....Putin is Hitler v2.0, we are allies on the side of the angels, Russia is Nazi Germany, comprising on anything with Putin makes you Neville Chamberlain & of course god forbid that when Putin goes on a rant about Western encroachment into Russia domain & US interference & imperialism globally that he might even have a sliver of a point that has validity.

Well said and absolutely agree. I think Putin is not the madman the media tries to portray him to be and there could be, with the right leadership, a fast road to stability and security for the country. But certainly not with Selensky who is willing to sacrifice so many men before engaging in alternative paths, which would be IMO sensible. We can only wait and see whats going to happen. I think the conflict should be over in the next year or year after because resources will be depleted, there will be major elections in Germany and the US...could be a lot of turmoil. 

[Luke]

47 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

LOL:

 

 We don't see the army of bots the US controls in China/Russia. They do the exact same thing...:D 

[UK]

https://www.ft.com/content/c62ca855-c70b-4814-aa47-96d2a0020c16

 

In Vienna, for example, Sullivan stressed that Washington was not trying to spark a war, according to the second official. “We’re not trying to drag China into a conflict over Taiwan. Nothing could be further from the truth,” adds the second official, who added that Beijing had become “pretty conspiratorial” about US intentions. Underscoring the paranoia, Xi had told European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen a few weeks before the summit that the US was trying to goad China into attacking Taiwan. “The kind of basic notion of, ‘You guys are playing with fire on Taiwan’ remains a central feature of their thinking,” the first US official says.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/7d6ca06c-d098-4a48-818e-112b97a9497a

 

Xi issued the warning in a meeting with von der Leyen in April 2023 that was described to the Financial Times by several people. He said the US was trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, but that he would not take the bait. Another person said he had issued similar warnings to his officials. The comments provide a window into Xi’s thinking on Taiwan — the most thorny issue in US-China relations. Some Chinese academics and retired military officers have claimed that Washington is trying to provoke Beijing by providing weapons to Taiwan and pushing other measures to lure China into military confrontation. Speaking at the Asia Society in January, Cui Tiankai, a former Chinese ambassador to Washington, said China would “not fall into the trap somebody may be preparing for us”, in a veiled reference to the US. Xi’s remark to von der Leyen is the first known case of him making the claim to a foreign leader. Xi also said that a conflict with the US would destroy many of China’s achievements and undermine his goal of achieving a “great rejuvenation” by 2049. “If Xi genuinely believes that the US actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor counsel from subordinates are, worryingly, true,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at CSIS, a think-tank.

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10 hours ago, UK said:

“If Xi genuinely believes that the US actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor counsel from subordinates are, worryingly, true,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at CSIS, a think-tank.

It doesn't help when Xi's been getting rid of dissonant voices with his own party(thus government).  It's a typical flaw found in a dictatorship structure, as noted in Jared Diamond's "How To Get Rich":

"But because Europe in the Renaissance was divided among 2,000 principalities, it was never the case that there was one idiot in command of all Europe who could abolish a whole technology" [Jared was trying to explain why China, back then, with its enormous head-start in different technologies was not able to reach the industrial revolution before Europe].

 

We know from biology that diversity makes the system more resilient, and having CCP in power, with its tendency to use top-down control makes China less diverse as seen in their policy of forced assimilation of ethnic minorities.  We can only hope that the opaque inner Politburo in the CCP has more room for open discussion and dissent.

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