Political Posts

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

I have no idea where you are going with this argument, but feel free. I really don't get it. I must be dense.

 

It's not some tremendous act of kindness that the Marshall Plan was offered to Europe - it's because the US (and Canada too), were the only superpowers left standing and not totally destroyed by WWII. In retrospect, the "isolationist" policy of the pre-WWII USA was a mistake. It only encouraged Germany & Japan. 

 

Of course, for Europe & Japan to be rebuilt physically and economically without the excessive penalties of WW1 , the Marshall Plan was offered once the "right" leadership was in place for the defeated nations (and our own allies).

 

So if you are questioning the motives of the USA - fine by me - I don't really care. The avoidance of a WW3 is well worth the price to BOTH the USA and Europe.

 

Did the USA, or for that matter, Western Europe , want an ascendant military power like Germany or Japan militarized again? Of course not. Economically - yes.  You'd think that France & England, after 3 wars with Germany since 1880 - would want a "lid" on Germany once and for all, regardless if required that the USA have a lead or a support role.

 

Certainly, Russia is a threat to Western Europe, especially if you live in the Baltic States, Finland, Poland or Western Ukraine.  The only thing that matters is what Putin THINKS he can do, regardless of the diminished capabilities of his military. Much like the situation with Hilter - whereby a despot with a WEAKER military THINKS he can defeat a far STRONGER combined Russian, English, French and USA military in a 2 front war. All that mattered in the end - is what Hitler THOUGHT he could do it - because 25 million Europeans had to die to actually prove him wrong.

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately 25mm Europeans did not die in WWII.  More like 75MM if you count the Russians, Ukrainians, and other Soviet citizens. 

[changegonnacome]

5 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Certainly, Russia is a threat to Western Europe, especially if you live in the Baltic States, Finland, Poland or Western Ukraine.

 

Yeah dont think you get it. 

 

NATO isn't there to protect Western Europe from Russia. Not anymore. Russia is a military joke (outside its nuke capability)....NATO is there to protect Western Europe from itself.

 

The biggest threat to democracy and peace in Western Europe over time.....isnt Russia...spoiler alert...its countries in Western Europe!........namely........France and Germany.....Napoleonic wars, WWI, WWII....need I go further back in time........the precursor to each of these most recent Western European wars was increased spending on defence by the main protagonists, France & Germany.....which triggered a security competition in their opposing rival state and a general re-armament across other countries in Europe...with Britain chipping in from across the Channel......creating various great power alliances....a very unstable equilibrium.....which inevitably led to war.....see with enough anxiety and paranoia...most leaders of powers threatened by their neighbour come to the same conclusion.....the best defense, is eventually a good offense. 

 

The creation of the EU economic architecture and the defacto outsourcing of European defense and security to the United States under NATO......is really designed, at its heart, to unburden the French and German's from the paranoia of having to look over each others shoulders around what the other is doing from a military perspective......they can sleep easy knowing each other has a piss poor military incapable of invading the other.

 

Think about it - NATO disappears tomorrow.......France and Germany individually start taking their individual national security deadly serious again....3-4% of GDP.......but France starts spending 5%.....Germany wonders why Macron is so serious about this defense thing so they up their spend to 6%...the German forms a defense pact alliance with Italians..bla bla bla....well you've got yourself an old fashioned security competition.....and the history of Europe in this regard is just brutal in terms of the outcome.

 

So - NATO is a US tool, sure, by which it gets to contain the Soviet threat and Europe gets not worry about Russia......but deep down NATO is a security umbrella under which Western European nations get to be protected, in effect, from themselves.....which is to say the security competitions of the past that inevitably led to wars need never get started cause Uncle Sam is Europe's bodyguard. The cost to Europe is that when its views diverge from that of the US it effectively has no strategic autonomy and inevitably falls into line on major issues.....this lack of European strategic autonomy...is the US's payment/reward for providing this service.

 

Its, IMO, a good deal for all concerned..but a great deal for the US.....and the fact Trump wants to tinker with it.....shows how truly dumb he is on this stuff. 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2024 by changegonnacome

[UK]

So nobody knows and maybe this is wishfull thinking on my part:), but I am not sure if Trump's position on NATO is that bad or stubborn: 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-17/trump-security-adviser-urges-cutting-china-ties-resuming-nuclear-weapons-tests?embedded-checkout=true

 

"There are moves O’Brien doesn’t call for, and that may be a pleasant surprise to uneasy allies. There’s no mention of withdrawing from NATO — in fact, he says Trump made the defense alliance stronger by demanding that European governments spend more on defense. O’Brien calls on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to rotate ground and air forces to Poland to boost its capabilities close to Russia’s border “and to make unmistakably clear that the alliance will defend all its territory from foreign aggression.”

 

Would making EU pay more, buy more arms from US, while basically keeping the whole system the same, be so stupid?

 

More speculations on this: https://archive.is/qCA3s

 

Edited July 9, 2024 by UK

[Sweet]

 

Believe this is a video of the attack that killed so many yesterday.

[cubsfan]

12 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yeah dont think you get it. 

 

NATO isn't there to protect Western Europe from Russia. Not anymore. Russia is a military joke (outside its nuke capability)....NATO is there to protect Western Europe from itself.

 

The biggest threat to democracy and peace in Western Europe over time.....isnt Russia...spoiler alert...its countries in Western Europe!........namely........France and Germany.....Napoleonic wars, WWI, WWII....need I go further back in time........the precursor to each of these most recent Western European wars was increased spending on defence by the main protagonists, France & Germany.....which triggered a security competition in their opposing rival state and a general re-armament across other countries in Europe...with Britain chipping in from across the Channel......creating various great power alliances....a very unstable equilibrium.....which inevitably led to war.....see with enough anxiety and paranoia...most leaders of powers threatened by their neighbour come to the same conclusion.....the best defense, is eventually a good offense. 

 

The creation of the EU economic architecture and the defacto outsourcing of European defense and security to the United States under NATO......is really designed, at its heart, to unburden the French and German's from the paranoia of having to look over each others shoulders around what the other is doing from a military perspective......they can sleep easy knowing each other has a piss poor military incapable of invading the other.

 

Think about it - NATO disappears tomorrow.......France and Germany individually start taking their individual national security deadly serious again....3-4% of GDP.......but France starts spending 5%.....Germany wonders why Macron is so serious about this defense thing so they up their spend to 6%...the German forms a defense pact alliance with Italians..bla bla bla....well you've got yourself an old fashioned security competition.....and the history of Europe in this regard is just brutal in terms of the outcome.

 

So - NATO is a US tool, sure, by which it gets to contain the Soviet threat and Europe gets not worry about Russia......but deep down NATO is a security umbrella under which Western European nations get to be protected, in effect, from themselves.....which is to say the security competitions of the past that inevitably led to wars need never get started cause Uncle Sam is Europe's bodyguard. The cost to Europe is that when its views diverge from that of the US it effectively has no strategic autonomy and inevitably falls into line on major issues.....this lack of European strategic autonomy...is the US's payment/reward for providing this service.

 

Its, IMO, a good deal for all concerned..but a great deal for the US.....and the fact Trump wants to tinker with it.....shows how truly dumb he is on this stuff. 

 

 

 

 

 

I get it now. Could very well be and have not looked at it that way, and it makes sense. The EU formation was largely done to bring Europe together, however imperfect it works.

 

I do think the criticism of Trump's actions is totally ridiculous considering what Europe stands to lose from a disbanded NATO.

[changegonnacome]

On 7/9/2024 at 9:52 AM, cubsfan said:

I do think the criticism of Trump's actions is totally ridiculous considering what Europe stands to lose from a disbanded NATO.

 

Nah Trump is dumb on this......the USA has Europe exactly where it wants it......if it aint broke, dont fix it.......a Europe systemically underspending on its domestic military capabilities....is a European allies that when push comes to shove follows your lead on all manner of foreign policy issues....the upside, for the Europeans, is that a Europe systematically underspending on its military......paradoxically....is a Europe less likely to see millions die in a war.

 

If Trump's dream is to reinvigorate the Europeans military muscle by forcing them to spend more....expect to see Europe not now but in say a decade diverge from the USA on important issues that they never would have dreamed off before. Who knows maybe China/Taiwain for example....like you do realize how important a trading partner China is for Germany?

 

And why......to save a few billion nickels?.......when your the global superpower with the reserve currency.....projecting global power & guarding your position as the 800ilb Gorilla in the sysem is not where you penny pinch!

 

Trump is concerned with billions being wasted....in a dumb transactional childish way...but again...its kind of 1st level thinking....see when your 800ilb gorilla in the global system and as I've argued NATO is one piece of the puzzle that insures the USA remains the ONLY 800ilb gorilla...its kind of dumb to worry about billions when it comes to maintaining your king of the jungle position......see the king of the jungle doesn't have debts.......Debt to GDP levels are for the little guys....fiscal crisis are for everybody else.

 

The USA could wake up tomorrow.....and tell every foreign holder of US paper to go jump.....and there's zilch anybody could do about....they'd scream bloody murder in France and Germany...bond yields would go crazy....for a while......and a month later BNP Paribas would be sending Deutsche Bank US treasury paper again as collateral...why......cause what else can you do?....the 800ilb gorilla does what it wants....because when you get down to it the USA literally designed, operates and police's the global financial and trade system in which everyone operates. There is no viable alternative to pivot too.

 

Trump's doing Xi & Putin's work for them when he diminishes in any way the US's relative power in the system it currently dominates....withdrawing from NATO or strengthening the underlying militaries of other NATO member states....not participating in TPP.....these moves dont enhance America's power, influence and leverage in the system they degrade it....and with it the exorbitant privilege that being the 800ilb gorilla confers on us all in the USA.

 

Thats the big big big picture @cubsfan

 

 

 

Edited July 11, 2024 by changegonnacome

[Xerxes]

Worry not folks. 

We, Canada, are on it.
You just wait and see. 
 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7260649

Trudeau says Canada can meet NATO's military spending benchmark by 2032

[Xerxes]

 

 

Shetland Police Department better get on the case of “vanishing” cables 
 

[nsx5200]

On 6/28/2024 at 8:49 AM, Luke said:

“We will build a business environment that is more solidly based on the market and rule of law and is up to international standards,” Xi pledged.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3268512/chinas-xi-jinping-vows-major-steps-deepen-reform-urges-end-iron-curtains?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

I'd be a bit wary with SCMP, as any independence Hong Kong had is essentially no longer, and SCMP is more or less a mouth piece for the CCP now.

 

On 6/26/2024 at 9:09 AM, Luke said:

Once the way of life and quality of life in China is so vastly superior to the internally struggling Western societies many will want to move closer to China than to G7/US.

The way to properly evaluate that statement is to ask yourself if you would personally move to China yourself, and see where the the people are generally moving; people do not willingly move towards a worse system.  To me, US immigration problem is actually a good problem to have.

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-economy-debt-borrowing-33f08b5e?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

The issue with an opaque system is that you need to double-check the official figures to get a more realistic figure, whereas a more transparent system can be trusted more.  The disadvantages of a top-down government are fairly well known, and with Xi in power, I suspect there's not a huge desire to push that power towards the people.  Not saying the democratic/capitalistic system is perfect, but looking at the trend, China's moving further towards a top-down system, and we know how that turned out in the case of USSR.  I would claim that China's huge growth in the past decades was a result from Deng's effort to push a lot of that power towards the people, which is currently being rolled back.  The opaque plenum top-down meeting is where the feedback and course correction happens, so I'm looking forward to see the outcome of that.

 

The good thing about a democratic system is that it's a system created by the people to solve the issues for the people as it's primary mission.  Whereas an authoritarian system's primary mission is to keep the authority in power.  Solving issues for the people works only to further its primary mission.  Maybe I drank the kool-aid and am seeing through tainted lens.

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-16/trump-s-vp-pick-vance-says-china-is-the-biggest-threat-to-us?embedded-checkout=true

[UK]

https://www.ft.com/content/44493fa9-d8f2-4407-94ac-a072c1976ca2

 

Donald Trump will quickly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins November’s US presidential election and has developed “well-founded plans” for doing so, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has claimed after private discussions with the Republican candidate.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-16/vance-s-foreign-policy-views-widen-trump-s-break-with-republican-old-guard?srnd=homepage-europe&embedded-checkout=true

 

“Ever since President Kennedy, the United States has been asking for Europe to do more,” UK politician David Lammy said in May, before he became foreign secretary with the Labour Party’s win this month. “My friend, Senator Vance, is right to say we in Europe have a problem that we need to fix with higher defense expenditure.” It’s far too early to know how much Trump would listen to Vance’s counsel if they win in November. But if he does, the US will take an even more skeptical view toward Ukraine than Trump has expressed so far. The Ohio senator says he opposes any further aid to Ukraine and has pushed for peace as soon as possible. “I think it’s ridiculous that we’re focused on this border in Ukraine,” Vance once said on Steve Bannon’s podcast. “I’ve got to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.”

 

Edited July 16, 2024 by UK

[james22]

SEEING REPORTS LIKE THIS IN VARIOUS PLACES, NONE THAT I’D CALL AUTHORITATIVE:

 

Stay tuned. Even if false, these reports probably mean something, if only an effort by rivals to underscore his age.

 

https://instapundit.com/661142/

[Spekulatius]

Jennifer Zhang is not exactly a trustworthy or unbiased source on all matters concerning China. She has carved out a niche for her self as an extreme China doomsdayer.

 

If this rumor is true, I expect shares of Alibaba and others to mysteriously rise long before the official news is announced, because people will know the truth through underground news networks and trade on them.

Edited July 18, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Paarslaars]

Was thinking of expanding my China exposure by building a larger basket, already own Prosus and Baba. Looking to add PDD and JD, I'm bullish on China but with Trump as president it might get worse before it gets better... Thinking I should hold off until next year.

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/chinese-migrants-tap-extensive-networks-to-join-the-u-s-economy-4deeb436

[Spekulatius]

Maybe the industrial policies work in the long term , but they suck for investors:

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/feared-in-the-west-chinas-manufacturers-struggle-at-home-8a64f2c3?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1
 

Check returns on capital for Chinese companies. Thats part of the reasons why the valuations are lower. 
 

I do think we are seeing some changes where companies like BABA are trying to improve their capital allocation and capital returns.

[Hektor]

This is posted in the BABA thread as well. Posting it here, since I feel it touches upon the murkiness of the Chinese system and the associated risks.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/world/asia/jack-ma-xiao-jianhua.html

[formthirteen]

Mark understands China: https://about.fb.com/news/2024/07/open-source-ai-is-the-path-forward/

 

Quote

The next question is how the US and democratic nations should handle the threat of states with massive resources like China. The United States’ advantage is decentralized and open innovation. Some people argue that we must close our models to prevent China from gaining access to them, but my view is that this will not work and will only disadvantage the US and its allies. Our adversaries are great at espionage, stealing models that fit on a thumb drive is relatively easy, and most tech companies are far from operating in a way that would make this more difficult. It seems most likely that a world of only closed models results in a small number of big companies plus our geopolitical adversaries having access to leading models, while startups, universities, and small businesses miss out on opportunities. Plus, constraining American innovation to closed development increases the chance that we don’t lead at all. Instead, I think our best strategy is to build a robust open ecosystem and have our leading companies work closely with our government and allies to ensure they can best take advantage of the latest advances and achieve a sustainable first-mover advantage over the long term.

 

Denmark too:
 

Quote

The investigation had been over for months, but the sense of unease lingered. “So, where are the drones?” Kirkby asked, jokingly, as she entered. Minutes later, someone looked out through the floor-to-ceiling windows and noticed one making its way toward the restaurant. The drone hovered in the air for a few minutes, and a team member took a picture of Kirkby pointing at it.
Everyone got up and watched the drone descend to the street, where it was picked up by men in a white van, who then drove away.

 

Great article and espionage story by Bloomberg: When a Huawei Bid Turned Into a Hunt for a Corporate Mole

https://archive.is/1zlDh

 

This article was also interesting: China’s Richest Man Risks Losing Crown After $13 Billion Wipeout

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-richest-man-risks-losing-000128252.html

 

Quote

 

The potential changing of the guard reflects a consumer sector that’s increasingly complex for businesses to navigate, as the economy slows and competition from upstart brands intensifies.

 

Besieged by a price war in its core bottled water space, Hong-Kong listed Nongfu has also found itself on the wrong side of growingly nationalistic and health-conscious Chinese in recent months. This has led to an almost 20% plunge in its share price since Feb. 1, compared to a roughly 6% rise for PDD, with its dirt-cheap products and aggressive deals.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2024 by formthirteen

[Hektor]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/26/states-china-pensions-00171437

 

 

‘Circle the wagons’ — state pension funds are dumping Chinese investments

Some state lawmakers say they want to protect pension fund investments in China from becoming collateral damage in a possible Indo-Pacific conflict.

 

A growing number of states are forcing public employee pension funds to divest from China, pulling out of the world’s second-largest economy because of hostility toward Beijing and fear that U.S. assets could be frozen if conflict breaks out in the Indo-Pacific.

 

Five states — Indiana, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas — have directed state fund administrators to begin the divestment process over the past year. And more are considering doing so — the latest sign of deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China.

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/23/why-is-xi-jinping-building-secret-commodity-stockpiles

 

https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/07/27/america-recreates-a-warfighting-command-in-japan

 

Edited July 28, 2024 by UK

[nsx5200]

https://www.economist.com/china/2024/07/18/fury-erupts-in-china-over-a-food-safety-scandal

 

“A great nation is rising. But it can’t even guarantee the basic safety of cooking oil,” wrote one of many outraged users on Weibo.

 

I think that's a great summary.  The race to be the lowest producer of consumer goods, world-swaying military force is not as easy as China make it out to be.  The population in China are merely tools for the CCCP to advance their agenda, and if not controlled properly, can turn on the CCCP party.  That's the true open-secret: people can easily be enemy for the Chinese government in the long-term.  Note that previous whistleblowers to such scandals have not been praised, but have disappeared, or at least been censured, so it's likely these type of issues will continue to pop up.

 

Like previous food scandals, its citizens are forced to devise solutions on their own.  Chinese people import milk powder not because they're so prosperous, it's because they're forced to fend for themselves.  Journalist have reported increased sale of home oil presses.

 

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2024/04/15/major-infant-nutrition-brands-gaining-market-shares-in-china-despite-shrinking-birth-rates#:~:text=Register here.,Trending ingredients

As of last December, the top five English label infant formulas in China in terms of market value share were Aptamil (44.5 per cent), a2 milk (20.6 per cent), Nestle (6.7 per cent), Mead Johnson (4.9 per cent), and Friso (4.2 per cent). In terms of China label products, Feihe took the lead at 21.4 per cent, followed by Yili (9.8 per cent), Aptamil at 7.7 per cent, Friso at 7.2 per cent, and Junlebao at seven per cent, data from Kantar Worldpanel showed.

[crs223]

1 hour ago, nsx5200 said:

A great nation is rising. But it can’t even guarantee the basic safety of cooking oil

 

I didn’t read the article.  But here is how I see that quote:

 

1. Chinese call their nation “great” - long term asset

 

2. Chinese call their nation “rising” - long term asset

 

3. Chinese being poisoned by the food supply - short term problem

 

I had been assuming Chinese were clamoring to escape and would describe the country as a hellhole — evidently it’s a great rising country.

 

Every growing country will have problems like this.  Take the US - richest country in the world cannot stop people from shitting on the sidewalks in Philadelphia and San Francisco (probably elsewhere too).

[Hektor]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/interactive/2024/china-migrants-us-border-san-diego-new-york/

 

Migrants from China ‘walk the line’ to U.S. border, testing Biden and Xi

Driven in part by the stifling economic and political fallout of China’s extended covid-19 lockdowns, the Chinese arrivals have become a political and national security flash point in Washington.

[nsx5200]

18 hours ago, crs223 said:

Every growing country will have problems like this.  Take the US - richest country in the world cannot stop people from shitting on the sidewalks in Philadelphia and San Francisco (probably elsewhere too).

Thanks.  That's a great long-term view of that particular issue, even though that food safety is a long-standing issue within China.  It is nevertheless a good way to view contemporary issues.

 

I read somewhere that Charlie Munger gave a speech on China something along the lines of "China, 2000 years in the past, 2000 years into the future".  Did anybody run across any of that material?  TIA.

[james22]

Five conservative states have forced their employee pension funds to divest from China over the past year, amid increased tension with the Asian country, and more are considering following suit.

 

Tension between the United States and China has been worsening for years, but Director of U.S. National Intelligence Avril Haines most recently warned lawmakers in May that China is preparing for increasingly unstable relationships with the United States.

 

Indiana, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas are leading the calls to divest from the economic powerhouse, over fears that U.S. assets could be frozen if conflict breaks out between China and Taiwan, Politico reported Friday.

 

https://justthenews.com/nation/states/five-states-force-employee-pension-funds-divest-china-amid-increasing-tension