Political Posts

[Luke]

[nsx5200]

On 5/18/2024 at 2:28 PM, Luca said:

Russia has deep cultural ties with China, they share a huge border and there are countries in China with many Russian-speaking people that have close ties to Russia. It is not in China's Interest to join Washington's sanction games and hostility towards Russia so IMO they are doing just what's fine for China. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amur_Annexation

 

They're realists.  If Chinese government weren't in such poor relationship with the rest of the world, China would've already recovered if not negotiated the recovery of the huge land mass around Amur by now.  Why muck with a few tiny islands in the southeast when they can recover more land mass, as well as 'righting past wrongs' from past unequal treaties.

 

This probably summarize the CCP government's attitude the best 

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukrainian-youtuber-finds-her-ai-clone-selling-russian-goods-on-chinese-internet-/7509009.html

 

They're like the two prisoners in the prisoner's dilemma currently in an unstable but optimal state.  It's probably just a matter of time until it transitions to a more stable state (ironically, the more stable state is actual real instability for either countries).

[scorpioncapital]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/politics/us-and-allies-warn-china-recruit-pilots/index.html

 

I am surprised China has such a 'good reputation' globally. Their actions are not of high integrity. They are using covert methods and abusing the spirit of corporate system to do some shady stuff and without even a shred of remorse. I guess 'own interest' mercantilism and nationalism taken to a freakish extreme is quite dangerous

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - Politics [June 7^th 2024] : Putin’s Wartime Central Banker Tells Him What He Doesn’t Want to Hear.

 

Bank of Russia Govenor Elvira Nabiiullina is on a Mission Impossible to make ends meet in the Russian economy. I can't imagine anyone envy her job and responisibilities.

 

Exports revenue trimbling, collapsing and diving O&G taxes, enormous frozen reverves abroad [the worst nightmare of every beancounter], enormous budget deficits that she has to make sure to cover. More debt, more debt, more debt, all the time, which eventually will cause the RUB eventually to crash, again causing inflation to rage the whole country, causing dire straits in weak households and among the poor, the elder generation and among children, who did not win in the ovarial lottery.

 

It is just so depressing to think about.

[cubsfan]

^^ Terrible.  But if he's gonna wreck Ukraine, might as well wreck his own country.

 

[Pelagic]

43 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Bloomberg - Politics [June 7^th 2024] : Putin’s Wartime Central Banker Tells Him What He Doesn’t Want to Hear.

 

Bank of Russia Govenor Elvira Nabiiullina is on a Mission Impossible to make ends meet in the Russian economy. I can't imagine anyone envy her job and responisibilities.

 

Exports revenue trimbling, collapsing and diving O&G taxes, enormous frozen reverves abroad [the worst nightmare of every beancounter], enormous budget deficits that she has to make sure to cover. More debt, more debt, more debt, all the time, which eventually will cause the RUB eventually to crash, again causing inflation to rage the whole country, causing dire straits in weak households and among the poor, the elder generation and among children, who did not win in the ovarial lottery.

 

It is just so depressing to think about.

 

Was just listening to this which outlines the plan the Trump admin would likely take to weaken Russia's economy. The meat and potatoes of it starts around 10:30. Basically when oil prices are high, Russia has money to burn and gets adventurous. Low prices shrink Russian budgets and limit their capacity to bother their neighbors.

 

https://www.politico.eu/podcast/trumps-plan-to-end-the-ukraine-war-bankrupt-putins-regime/

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Thanks, @Pelagic,

 

Great read.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

A bit more about Bank of Russia Govenor Elvira Nabiiullina :

 

The Economist actually has a piece about her by now in the 1843 Magazine :

 

1843 magazine explores the “Shakespearean” complexities of Elvira Nabiullina, Russia’s wartime banker :

 

The Economist - 1843 Magazine [May 31^st 2024] : Meet the poetry-loving banker who keeps Putin’s war going How long can Elvira Nabiullina work her magic?

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

To me personally, it's actually at least just a bit comforting, that there is at least one person with real influence close to Vladimir Putin in the Russian Government, who try to act based on actual data and reason, constantly trying to get the best out the situation.

Edited June 8, 2024 by John Hjorth

[scorpioncapital]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

who try to act based on actual data and reason, constantly trying to get the best out the situation.

 

So a good banker can make you win or realize you can't win? I can see it go both ways.

 

[John Hjorth]

23 minutes ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

So a good banker can make you win or realize you can't win? I can see it go both ways.

 

 

That's the paradox related to Elvira Nabiiullina :

 

Why is she doing this? -Staying at helm of Bank of Russia as Govenor when she actually disagrees with her boss on material matters.

 

Possible answers that I can see :

 

1. Personal considerations, related to maintaining her position, privileges, competencies and power allocated to her by her Boss.

2. For the sake of Mother Russia - the country and its population, letting these vindicate her own ambitions and desires. Personal submissiveness to obtain the privilege of active damage control.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Personally, I speculate it's # 2. And I speculate she really has a hard time doing it. But what do I know about that.

Edited June 8, 2024 by John Hjorth

[scorpioncapital]

40 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

That's the paradox related to Elvira Nabiiullina :

 

Why is she doing this? -Staying at helm of Bank of Russia as Govenor when she actually disagrees with her boss on material matters.

 

Possible answers that I can see :

 

1. Personal considerations, related to maintaining her position, privileges, competencies and power allocated to her by her Boss.

2. For the sake of Mother Russia - the country and its population, letting these vindicate her own ambitions and desires. Personal submissiveness to obtain the privilege of active damage control.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Personally, I speculate it's # 2. And I speculate she really has a hard time doing it. But what do I know about that.

 

or 3. gun to head.  In some societies it is not clear what people are thinking because it is very opaque. And what you see on the news is not at all what is actually going on. When she met with Christine Lagarde a few years ago I almost thought I could see a look in her eyes like an SOS message from one woman to the other. But again, no way to prove it.

 

[Spekulatius]

23 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/politics/us-and-allies-warn-china-recruit-pilots/index.html

 

I am surprised China has such a 'good reputation' globally. Their actions are not of high integrity. They are using covert methods and abusing the spirit of corporate system to do some shady stuff and without even a shred of remorse. I guess 'own interest' mercantilism and nationalism taken to a freakish extreme is quite dangerous

I do not think that China has a good reputation globally. They are an important trade partner especially for poorer countries in Africa who can’t be too picky, but I don’t think this means they are well liked.

 

Dictators like them because they are just like the, and don’t judge them and also give them tools (surveillance tech, weapons etc) to help them stay in power.

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

or 3. gun to head.  In some societies it is not clear what people are thinking because it is very opaque. And what you see on the news is not at all what is actually going on. When she met with Christine Lagarde a few years ago I almost thought I could see a look in her eyes like an SOS message from one woman to the other. But again, no way to prove it.

 

 

@scorpioncapital,

 

Yes, absolutely positive on that, too. However I would give it a very low probability, for a couple of reasons.

 

First, I think she would set up an escape to Western Europe, if she felt that kind of heat was building up from her Boss, and I think she would react immedially, if so. There is to me no doubt that she has access to and control over funds and other means to do so.

 

Second, she's a true hardballer and badass herself. Since taking office, she has closed about 400 Russian banks owned by russian oligarchs and other good and entrepreneurial people, involved in all kinds of criminal activities, money laudering etc, - you name it. Every time somebody has threatened her, she just ramped up on personal security. No sweat.

 

A genuine red head with regard to temper and all that!

[UK]

13 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@scorpioncapital,

 

Yes, absolutely positive on that, too. However I would give it a very low probability, for a couple of reasons.

 

First, I think she would set up an escape to Western Europe, if she felt that kind of heat was building up from her Boss, and I think she would react immedially, if so. There is to me no doubt that she has access to and control over funds and other means to do so.

 

Second, she's a true hardballer and badass herself. Since taking office, she has closed about 400 Russian banks owned by russian oligarchs and other good and entrepreneurial people, involved in all kinds of criminal activities, money laudering etc, - you name it. Every time somebody has threatened her, she just ramped up on personal security. No sweat.

 

A genuine red head with regard to temper and all that!

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/russia-central-banker-wanted-out-over-ukraine-but-putin-said-no?embedded-checkout=true

[hillfronter83]

Jay Chou in Chinese Music world is like Jay-Z in USA. Now imaging a "fake Jay-Z"'s concert ticket sells more than the real guy's!  

https://www.zaobao.com.sg/entertainment/story20240610-3881645

 

[Ulti]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-is-losing-the-chip-war/ar-BB1nJVSw

[formthirteen]

 

 

[CGJB]

I was listening to a podcast with Louis-Vincent Gave yesterday. He said that China now does more trade with Southeast Asia than it does with the US. I would imagine this trend will only grow over time.

[ValueArb]

Credit where credit is due. The first Ukrainian “SAMbush” of a Russian A-50 Mainstay by a Patriot system was a German tactical innovation they trained the Ukrainians for.

 

“According to Col. Clemente, the German soldiers tasked with training the Ukrainians on the mobile Patriot systems woke up the Ukrainian battery in the middle of the night, marched them to a location where they fought a simulated air battle, and then made them march again. “I was like, ‘Huh, wonder why they did that?’ And it was a month later, they conducted some of their first ambushes where they’re shooting down Russian Su-27s along the Russian border.”

 

https://www.twz.com/land/u-s-army-officer-confirms-russian-a-50-radar-jet-was-shot-down-with-patriot-missile

 

Edited June 15, 2024 by ValueArb

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - Politics [June 15^th 2024] Danes Asked to Keep Supplies, Iodine Pills to Prepare for Crises.

 

I suppose that perhaps this potential countermeasure for some CoBF members may seem and appear out of proportion, given the situation.

 

But it's actually real and tangible here, and tells a lot about the overall local sentiment here.

[Spekulatius]

On 6/8/2024 at 1:04 PM, scorpioncapital said:

 

or 3. gun to head.  In some societies it is not clear what people are thinking because it is very opaque. And what you see on the news is not at all what is actually going on. When she met with Christine Lagarde a few years ago I almost thought I could see a look in her eyes like an SOS message from one woman to the other. But again, no way to prove it.

 

I don’t think it’s gun to the head.

#3 reason (beyond #1 and #2) is that she is good at it and it is rewarding to do something that you are good at. Seems strange, but Werner von Braun was good at designing  rockets and while I don’t think he was a Nazi, he could not let go and helped produce the V1 and the V2.

 

Hjalmar  Schacht (Hitler’s Banker) May be similar historic figure.

Edited June 16, 2024 by Spekulatius

[scorpioncapital]

so if it is not gun to head we can say complicit? I mean, she can easily emigrate if she wanted to? How did that work out for other emigrant high level officials? I believe the KGB was/is still hunting them abroad with threat of poisoned assassination. 

[John Hjorth]

On 6/16/2024 at 1:24 PM, John Hjorth said:

Bloomberg - Politics [June 15^th 2024] Danes Asked to Keep Supplies, Iodine Pills to Prepare for Crises.

 

I suppose that perhaps this potential countermeasure for some CoBF members may seem and appear out of proportion, given the situation.

 

But it's actually real and tangible here, and tells a lot about the overall local sentiment here.

 

Meanwhile, other places :

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

38 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Meanwhile, other places :

 

 

 

Wow - interesting that Kennedy had no respect for another country’s right to choose their own self-defense.

Edited June 17, 2024 by cubsfan

[ValueArb]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Wow - interesting that Kennedy had no respect for another country’s right to choose their own self-defend.

 

NATO is the vaccine to cure the virus of Russian expansionism, which is why RFK Inferior dislikes it. 

[cubsfan]

Interesting. Not at all up on his agenda, although he has some appeal.