Political Posts

[ValueArb]

14 minutes ago, Luca said:

Sorry, but you don't know how functional their nuclear capabilities are and I think they are very likely to work. Using tactical nukes for strategically important Ukrainian positions won't burn their families but cause huge damage and they play a significant role in this war.  

 

No one should believe anyone, not even NATO...fact is, Putin is willing to negotiate and with the right assurances peace is reachable (on which you disagree). 

 

My predictions: 

 

1. Ukraine will further lose men daily and Russia will accelerate the damage behind the front. 

2. Ukraine will eventually face a dead end due to a lack of men and crumbling infrastructure. 

 

Ukraine doesn't conscript anyone under the age of 25, it may not have as many troops as it would like but its not going to run out for years. It will just keep lowering the conscription age (it was 27 until recently). 

 

14 minutes ago, Luca said:

3. If the West allows Ukraine to attack Russian soil, Russia will intensify the damage to Ukraine to assure its security. 

4. Tactical Nuclear bombs will be used IF Ukraine poses a significant threat to Russian sovereignty

 

Nope. Russia knows they'll be subject to far more long range strikes and possibly direct intervention by NATO if they let the nuclear genie out of the bottle. Its the clearest way to motivate the west to massively increase support for Ukraine.

 

14 minutes ago, Luca said:

5. Ukraine will lose except if the west joins the war actively.

 

Ukraine can't lose. Even if Russia pulled off a miracle break through that put all of Ukraine under their control, their proxy government will be quickly bled to ciollapse from relentless partisan attacks. Ukraine isn't full of pacifists like Germany is. 

 

All that remains for Russia in Ukraine is to bleed their forces and fertilize sunflowers.

 

14 minutes ago, Luca said:

6. We will then have WW3. 

7. If the West doesn't join, Ukraine will lose and the country will become an empty battlefield zone over time and the government will slowly collapse. Ukraine will become a wasteland. 

 

Sacrificing regions and joining a realistic peace treaty is by far the best option to take for Ukraine and for us. We will know how this war turns out in a couple of years and I am willing to change my mind if things change! 

 

 

You are just advocating for surrendering all of Ukraine, because there is no peace treaty that Putin will sign that would truly guarantee Ukraines long term safety. Which at a minimum would require full NATO/EU membership along with full demilitarization of the Donbas and Crimea.

[Luke]

My predictions stand, now the future can prove me wrong! 

[Xerxes]

52 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Poland has purchased 32 F-35s, 48 F-16s, 48 Patriot batteries, 18 HIMARS launchers, 45 ATACMS launchers, nearly 400 Abrams tanks, 96 Apache helicopters, and 800 JASSM-ER cruise missiles, etc, etc.

do you mean “launchers” or missiles and not “batteries”. 
 

There are not many batteries in the whole world I think.
 

Each battery can have many launchers. at most maybe a dozen battery in the whole Europe ?!

[ValueArb]

33 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

do you mean “launchers” or missiles and not “batteries”. 
 

There are not many batteries in the whole world I think.
 

Each battery can have many launchers. at most maybe a dozen battery in the whole Europe ?!

Unclear to me. Latest order included 48 “launch stations”, 644 missiles, and 12 latest radar systems. First (2018) order included 2 “batteries”. So maybe it’s 14 batteries total?

 

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/06/29/us-state-dept-clears-15b-sale-of-missile-defense-system-for-poland/

Edited May 30, 2024 by ValueArb

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

Unclear to me. Latest order included 48 “launch stations”, 644 missiles, and 12 latest radar systems. First (2018) order included 2 “batteries”. So maybe it’s 14 batteries total?

 

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/06/29/us-state-dept-clears-15b-sale-of-missile-defense-system-for-poland/

right I think the rule of thumb is 6-8 launchers makes up a battery along with the radar system. Base on the quick search I did. 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2023/05/17/graphics-patriot-missiles-ukraine-russia/70227493007/

[Luke]

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/bundesregierung-deutsche-waffen-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html

 

Germany allows Ukraine to use German weapons in Russian territory! It begins!

Edited May 31, 2024 by Luca

[Gamecock-YT]

It just seems to be an ever increasing series of small escalations via 'red lines' that were previously forbidden, suddenly being allowed. So if you follow it to it's logical conclusion, where is the tipping point? Or the point of no return?

 

I would posit it will be if/when NATO member countries are in Ukraine in an 'official' capacity as trainers, or some similar capacity, and they are attacked by Russia. Until that happens everything else is only building until that potential moment. And what the response of the west will be to it. 

 

The other immediate tipping point is the US election results and should Trump win and likely pulls the plug of American support, what is the European response?

 

But I do think we are ever increasingly spiraling towards a larger conflict. Red lines are continuing to be violated with no parties even remotely interested in a resolution or a reduction in combat activities. 

 

[Luke]

Michael von der Schulenburg, former diplomat with the UN and OSCE, was Assistant Secretary-General in UN peace missions in Iraq and Sierra Leone: 

 

https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/understanding-the-ukraine-conflict-michael-von-der-schulenburgs-insights/

 

One must Negotiate with Putin

"The situation must be extremely difficult for the Ukrainians. Through more than two years of war, Ukraine has paid a heavy price in blood on both sides of the front lines, with large parts of the country having been destroyed. The country is deeply divided politically, has become the poorest country in Europe, continues to suffer from widespread corruption, and is in the process of becoming increasingly depopulated. The military situation also looks extremely unfavorable. The Ukrainians are today the cheated people of Europe, also cheated by us. Their country has become a battlefield for geopolitical interests, including Western geopolitical interests. It could now even face the risk of collapsing. If we really want to be friends with Ukraine, as we like to claim, we should now do everything we can to end this war through a negotiated peace."

 

"What he wants is pretty clear: Putin does not want NATO or foreign military bases so close to Russia in Ukraine; he wants to secure Russia’s access to the Black Sea and to protect the security of the pro-Russian population in Ukraine. We can assume that these goals are shared by the vast majority among the Russian elites and among the Russian population. As early as 1997, President Yeltsin already warned US President Clinton against wanting to bring Ukraine into NATO; he emphasized that there is a thick red line for Russia. Russia’s position has not changed since.

 

Michael von der Schulenburg was actually involved with the draft of the piece treaty in Istanbul 2022: 

 

"Yes, I mean the Istanbul Communiqué of March 30, 2022, which both sides accepted and initialed. It was drawn up by the Ukrainians and consisted of 10 proposals. It is an amazing document, a brilliant achievement of Ukrainian diplomacy. In it, Ukraine did not formally give up a single square meter of land. Kiev only accepted that the status of Crimea would be decided peacefully in 15 years. There was no mention of Donbass; that was to be negotiated directly between Zelensky and Putin. At its core, the Istanbul peace proposal was a deal between Ukraine and Russia in which the Ukraine committed itself to remaining neutral and not to allow any other state to establish military bases on its territory. Russia, in return, would guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine and withdraw all invading troops. In this document, Russia even undertook to support Ukrainian membership of the EU. But the West did not want the treaty. A week before Istanbul, there was a special NATO summit in Brussels, which Biden also attended. There, it was decided not to support any negotiations with Russia until Russia withdrew from the whole of Ukraine. This meant nothing other than NATO demanding Russia’s military defeat and, hence, clearing the way for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. When Zelensky nevertheless stuck to the peace negotiations with Russia, British Prime Minister Johnson paid an unexpected visit to Kiev on April 9, 2022, making it unmistakably clear to the Ukrainians that they would lose all support from the West if they signed a peace treaty with Russia. This put an end to the possibility of an early peace."

 

"If the USA continues to escalate with NATO support and, as announced, now sends weapons with which Russia can be hit at its strategically important locations, Russia, as indicated, would not shy away from extreme reactions. The danger of this conflict escalating into a nuclear war is therefore higher today than ever before. NATO should not underestimate Russia’s determination again."

 

"Such demonization of the opponent is common among warring parties. The other party is always the embodiment of evil against whom we, as the good guys, must fight to save the world. We will certainly find similar demonization of the West in Russia. What is perhaps unusual here is that we in the EU behave like a warring party, even though we always claim not to be a party in this war."

 

"I find it frightening that I am now getting reactions from senior German diplomats who are full of hatred for Russia. Such “diplomats” would never be in a position to conduct peace negotiations. But why do we have them then? In wars you need diplomats with a cool head, diplomats who can also understand their opponents and thus look for feasible compromises to end the killing in wars. In doing so, they must not allow themselves to be captured by their own war propaganda or pro-war media. It also plays a role here that we in Germany find it difficult to accept a different point of view, even if it advocates the silencing of weapons and peace negotiations. It’s no coincidence that I can only give this interview to a Swiss magazine, which then also publishes it."

 

"The closest we came to a solution was when the Ukrainians and Russians talked to each other directly, without Western interference. I’m sure there will be talks between the military on both sides; they all know each other because nobody wants all their people to be slaughtered. But we won’t find out about the talks until the time comes. Then it could happen very quickly. I can well imagine that the Russians are making offers to the Ukrainian military that are better than something that could be negotiated here in Switzerland, especially now that Switzerland is likely to have lost a lot of international sympathy as a neutral state due to its stance on the Gaza war."

 

 

[Luke]

https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/with-its-role-in-the-ukraine-war-the-european-union-may-risk-its-own-political-future/

 

With its role in the Ukraine war the European Union may risk its own political future

Is a political elite in the EU risking Europe’s future out of a false sense of self-righteousness?

 

And yet, peace is not part of the EU’s discourse. It is the language of war that unites the majority of European governments and the established media today – and this, although there is no common EU strategy on the Ukraine war, no common approach on what can be achieved and how. The Polish Prime Minister, for example, declared that Europe was already in a pre-war situation, perhaps already at war, and Sweden’s Prime Minister called on Swedish families to prepare for war. The President of the EU Commission can think of nothing else but to demand more and more money, more weapons and more ammunition and demands a conversion of Europe to a war economy. Even Chancellor Scholz, who we must thank for having prevented the deployment of Taurus missiles so far, only talks about Russia not being allowed to win the war. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for him and his European colleagues to think rather about how to win peace in Europe?

 

The acrimonious and irreconcilable attitude of the EU towards Russia is particularly evident in Germany in the two motions tabled by the governing and opposition parties in the Bundestag, the German parliament, on the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine. These motions read more like declarations of war against Russia, in which highly questionable arguments are combined with unrealistic maximum demands and simultaneous threats. They leave no room for compromise. Hence, any attempt at negotiations is made impossible from the outset. After two years of war, this approach is tantamount to a denial of reality. It is a policy of clinging to a continuation of the war, knowing full well that there is no realistic hope of a victorious peace in Ukraine.

 

This may also explain why individual EU member states are plunging into irresponsible actionism.  This includes France’s proposal to send NATO troops to fight in Ukraine and its plans to station French units in Moldova. It also includes once again the believe in a miracle weapon by German political hardliners and their demands on making Taurus missiles available to Ukraine. Such plans appear to be ill-conceived and therefore potentially dangerous. They are also unrealistic. The EU has neither military capabilities, nor sufficient political unity nor any popular support for individual states or the EU as a whole to launch such adventurous ventures. In any case, they would be unlikely to change the course of the war but would lead to further killing and destruction in Ukraine.

 

Furthermore, such plans run the risk of leading to an escalation of the war in Ukraine, with the frightening prospects that this could develop into a pan-European or even a nuclear World War. When a French president claims that such considerations are just a sign of cowardice and a German Green party tells us that there is no nuclear risk at all, even if Moscow or Russian military nuclear installations are attacked, they are gambling with the survival of us all. And for what? Just because we don’t want to admit to ourselves that we can no longer win this war and that negotiations are the only option left.

 

 

@Gamecock-YT   

 

Time is also running out for the EU in another respect. In just a few months, political relationship with the USA could change dramatically should Donald Trump become US President. There are already considerable differences among the EU member states, and a political landslide in the USA could divide the EU member states rather than bring them closer together. With its uncompromising pro-war and anti-Russia policy, the EU will also further isolate itself from most non-NATO states in the world. There will be no understanding there for continuing to escalate militarily while at the same time refusing to negotiate with Russia without preconditions. The EU sets itself up for a massive failure if it continues its current path of seeking solutions through ever more weapon deliveries and sanctions. In its own interests, the European Union urgently needs a change of strategy that must aim at a pan-European peace and security order based on the 1990 Charter of Paris for a New Europe and that must include Ukraine and Russia.

 

 

The forthcoming elections to the European Parliament would therefore be an opportunity for Europeans to say no to the EU’s militant policies by voting for peace on June 9.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Gamecock-YT said:

It just seems to be an ever increasing series of small escalations via 'red lines' that were previously forbidden, suddenly being allowed. So if you follow it to it's logical conclusion, where is the tipping point? Or the point of no return?

 

I would posit it will be if/when NATO member countries are in Ukraine in an 'official' capacity as trainers, or some similar capacity, and they are attacked by Russia. Until that happens everything else is only building until that potential moment. And what the response of the west will be to it. 

 

The other immediate tipping point is the US election results and should Trump win and likely pulls the plug of American support, what is the European response?

 

But I do think we are ever increasingly spiraling towards a larger conflict. Red lines are continuing to be violated with no parties even remotely interested in a resolution or a reduction in combat activities. 

 

 

My view - Western countries should have been involved to a much greater degree and from much earlier.

 

I think the West should close the sky in Ukraine to Russia jets.  They should be operating artillery, operating drones, destroying weapon depots etc.  No Western infantrymen on the frontline right now, Ukrainians should be the front line soldiers, it's their country and if they want it to remain free they should fight for it.

 

But most of everything else on the table from the West.  

 

I'm OK with Russia keeping what it has if it is peace, and lasting peace, whatever.  Russia should be prepared that Ukraine joins the EU, or even NATO for that concession.

 

 

[Xerxes]

As a side note for fellow North Americans and West Europeans, you do realize that we collectively (aside some energy price spikes) have not seen or felt the impact of Ukraine War at a personal or family level. 
 

So our collective points of view (whatever those may be) is really shaped without having paid the real cost of expanding the war. 

 

 

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

As a side note for fellow North Americans and West Europeans, you do realize that we collectively (aside some energy price spikes) have not seen or felt the impact of Ukraine War at a personal or family level. 
 

So our collective points of view (whatever those may be) is really shaped without having paid the real cost of expanding the war. 

 

 

 

Well that is an excellent and important point. Ukraine itself will have to judge what price they wish to pay in lives. Our view shouldn't matter in that regard. As an outside observer, I do not think Ukraine can afford to lose a generation of young men and survive as a nation. In that regard, Putin has them over a barrell with an extended campaign. I do hope that Zelenksky is acting in the majority interest, but I have my doubts with all the corruption and thievery in Ukraine.

 

When you've suspended civil liberties, imposed martial law, canceled elections, outlawed the opposition party - one has to wonder about the current leadership.

Edited May 31, 2024 by cubsfan

[Luke]

18 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Well that is an excellent and important point. Ukraine itself will have to judge what price they wish to pay in lives. Our view shouldn't matter in that regard. As an outside observer, I do not think Ukraine can afford to lose a generation of young men and survive as a nation. In that regard, Putin has them over a barrell with an extended campaign. I do hope that Zelenksky is acting in the majority interest, but I have my doubts with all the corruption and thievery in Ukraine.

 

When you've suspended civil liberties, imposed martial law, canceled elections, outlawed the opposition party - one has to wonder about the current leadership.

Yep!

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

When you've suspended civil liberties, imposed martial law, canceled elections, outlawed the opposition party - one has to wonder about the current leadership.

 

Post war, I think there will be structural social divide between those who shed blood “who know better” and those that didn’t  (younger people that lived in the shadow of the war). 
 

post war will continue to have the menace in the east, so those  that fought “that know better” will insist to be vigilant and in control. 
 

I think all these talks about Ukraine becoming like Israel are just fantasy. Israel was in mortal danger as a nation in early decades, there was no room for internal dissent, Ukraine on the other hand may lose a limb but not be in any mortal damage.
 

That grey zone is just enough to have that social divide pulling the country in different directions. 
 

Taiwan was a dictatorship in its early life. Maybe the Taiwan of that era is a better analogy to Ukraine.  

Edited May 31, 2024 by Xerxes

[ValueArb]

6 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

It just seems to be an ever increasing series of small escalations via 'red lines' that were previously forbidden, suddenly being allowed. So if you follow it to it's logical conclusion, where is the tipping point? Or the point of no return?

 

I would posit it will be if/when NATO member countries are in Ukraine in an 'official' capacity as trainers, or some similar capacity, and they are attacked by Russia. Until that happens everything else is only building until that potential moment. And what the response of the west will be to it. 

 

The other immediate tipping point is the US election results and should Trump win and likely pulls the plug of American support, what is the European response?

 

But I do think we are ever increasingly spiraling towards a larger conflict. Red lines are continuing to be violated with no parties even remotely interested in a resolution or a reduction in combat activities. 

 

 

Russia loves at drawing red lines. 

 

No aid for Ukraine or we might use nukes.

If you give HIMARS to Ukraine we might use nukes.

if you give Patriots to Ukraine we might use nukes.

If you give ATACMS to Ukraine we are going to use nukes.

If you give F-16s to Ukraine we are going to check our nukes to find out how many haven't been dissembled and sold for reactor fuel by kleptocrats and might use any that still work. 

 

[Luke]

19 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Russia loves at drawing red lines. 

 

No aid for Ukraine or we might use nukes.

If you give HIMARS to Ukraine we might use nukes.

if you give Patriots to Ukraine we might use nukes.

If you give ATACMS to Ukraine we are going to use nukes.

If you give F-16s to Ukraine we are going to check our nukes to find out how many haven't been dissembled and sold for reactor fuel by kleptocrats and might use any that still work. 

 

Maybe because Russia has valid security concerns regarding their own country? Is only the US allowed to threaten foreign countries establishing military operations close to them but the rest has to put up with 800+ developing bases? 

[ValueArb]

6 hours ago, Luca said:

Michael von der Schulenburg, former diplomat with the UN and OSCE, was Assistant Secretary-General in UN peace missions in Iraq and Sierra Leone: 

 

So you post two different screeds from the same failed diplomat?

 

6 hours ago, Luca said:

 

https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/understanding-the-ukraine-conflict-michael-von-der-schulenburgs-insights/

 

One must Negotiate with Putin

 

Anyone who says this is being willfully obtuse about Putin's history of abiding by his agreements.

 

6 hours ago, Luca said:

"The situation must be extremely difficult for the Ukrainians. Through more than two years of war, Ukraine has paid a heavy price in blood on both sides of the front lines, with large parts of the country having been destroyed. The country is deeply divided politically, has become the poorest country in Europe, continues to suffer from widespread corruption, and is in the process of becoming increasingly depopulated. The military situation also looks extremely unfavorable. The Ukrainians are today the cheated people of Europe, also cheated by us. Their country has become a battlefield for geopolitical interests, including Western geopolitical interests. It could now even face the risk of collapsing. If we really want to be friends with Ukraine, as we like to claim, we should now do everything we can to end this war through a negotiated peace."

 

When he talks about a  "negotiated peace" without providing good strong arguments on why it won't be a temporary peace, how we can trust Putin, or acknowledging how untrustworthy Putin is,  he's actively misleading his audience. 

 

6 hours ago, Luca said:

 

"What he wants is pretty clear: Putin does not want NATO or foreign military bases so close to Russia in Ukraine; he wants to secure Russia’s access to the Black Sea and to protect the security of the pro-Russian population in Ukraine. We can assume that these goals are shared by the vast majority among the Russian elites and among the Russian population. As early as 1997, President Yeltsin already warned US President Clinton against wanting to bring Ukraine into NATO; he emphasized that there is a thick red line for Russia. Russia’s position has not changed since.

 

Michael von der Schulenburg was actually involved with the draft of the piece treaty in Istanbul 2022: 

 

"Yes, I mean the Istanbul Communiqué of March 30, 2022, which both sides accepted and initialed. It was drawn up by the Ukrainians and consisted of 10 proposals. It is an amazing document, a brilliant achievement of Ukrainian diplomacy. In it, Ukraine did not formally give up a single square meter of land. Kiev only accepted that the status of Crimea would be decided peacefully in 15 years. There was no mention of Donbass; that was to be negotiated directly between Zelensky and Putin. At its core, the Istanbul peace proposal was a deal between Ukraine and Russia in which the Ukraine committed itself to remaining neutral and not to allow any other state to establish military bases on its territory. Russia, in return, would guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine and withdraw all invading troops.

In this document, Russia even undertook to support Ukrainian membership of the EU. But the West did not want the treaty. A week before Istanbul, there was a special NATO summit in Brussels, which Biden also attended. There, it was decided not to support any negotiations with Russia until Russia withdrew from the whole of Ukraine. This meant nothing other than NATO demanding Russia’s military defeat and, hence, clearing the way for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. When Zelensky nevertheless stuck to the peace negotiations with Russia, British Prime Minister Johnson paid an unexpected visit to Kiev on April 9, 2022, making it unmistakably clear to the Ukrainians that they would lose all support from the West if they signed a peace treaty with Russia. This put an end to the possibility of an early peace."

 

A document from a negotiation forced upon Ukrainians in their darkest hour, with Russian troops surrounding Kyiv, when they still didn't know the extent of western support they'd receive, and written by a Ukrainian team that was alleged to include Russian double agents, that would allow Russia to keep territory they had seized in the war, and leave Ukraine nearly indefensible in any future invasion. And then the Bucha massacre became public right in the middle of negotiations.

 

Zelenskyy rightly demanded more protections and Russia rejected them. Yet this lying "diplomat" doesn't even address those concerns, just pretends that in his fairy world filled with chocolate streams and gumdrop rain showers everyone would have been happy.

 

Quote

In response Zelenskyy said that he would not agree to a ceasefire that would freeze the conflict while Russia occupied 22% of Ukraine: "We explained that there will be no Minsk-3, Minsk-5, or Minsk-7. We will not play these games, we have lost part of our territories this way ... it is a trap."

 

Quote

 

Following the talks, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that Russia was only "pretending to negotiate", in line with a strategy it has used elsewhere.^[65]

Quote

According to U.S. officials who spoke to Foreign Affairs, a provisional agreement was reached in April, whereby the Russian forces would withdraw to the pre-invasion line and Ukraine would commit not to seek to join NATO in exchange for security guarantees from a number of countries. However, in a July interview with Russian state media, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that this compromise was no longer an option, saying that even the Donbas was not enough and that the "geography had changed.

6 hours ago, Luca said:

 

 

 

"If the USA continues to escalate with NATO support and, as announced, now sends weapons with which Russia can be hit at its strategically important locations, Russia, as indicated, would not shy away from extreme reactions. The danger of this conflict escalating into a nuclear war is therefore higher today than ever before. NATO should not underestimate Russia’s determination again."

 

"Such demonization of the opponent is common among warring parties. The other party is always the embodiment of evil against whom we, as the good guys, must fight to save the world. We will certainly find similar demonization of the West in Russia. What is perhaps unusual here is that we in the EU behave like a warring party, even though we always claim not to be a party in this war."

 

 

Russia invaded Ukraine. It has performed numerous massacres such as a Bucha. It has targeted civilians with military weapons. 

 

If this donkey doesn't draw a good/evil line against those actions, he's an idiot. Seriously, he's so disingenous he's either a deluded pacifist or he's a paid FSB proxy.

 

6 hours ago, Luca said:

 

"I find it frightening that I am now getting reactions from senior German diplomats who are full of hatred for Russia. Such “diplomats” would never be in a position to conduct peace negotiations. But why do we have them then? In wars you need diplomats with a cool head, diplomats who can also understand their opponents and thus look for feasible compromises to end the killing in wars. In doing so, they must not allow themselves to be captured by their own war propaganda or pro-war media. It also plays a role here that we in Germany find it difficult to accept a different point of view, even if it advocates the silencing of weapons and peace negotiations. It’s no coincidence that I can only give this interview to a Swiss magazine, which then also publishes it."

 

Russia has genocided tens of millions in the last century alone. Russian troops raped their way through Europe in WW2. They murdered millions in the cold war to keep half of Europe as their slaves. And then after the breakup of the USSR when the west spent hundreds of billions helping them and the former republics they impoverished, they became a dictatorship again. And kept killing and murdering political opponents across Europe and the world, until finally invading free Ukraine to murder and genocide tens of thousands more.

 

And he's confused why Russians are hated? 

 

6 hours ago, Luca said:

 

"The closest we came to a solution was when the Ukrainians and Russians talked to each other directly, without Western interference. I’m sure there will be talks between the military on both sides; they all know each other because nobody wants all their people to be slaughtered. But we won’t find out about the talks until the time comes. Then it could happen very quickly. I can well imagine that the Russians are making offers to the Ukrainian military that are better than something that could be negotiated here in Switzerland, especially now that Switzerland is likely to have lost a lot of international sympathy as a neutral state due to its stance on the Gaza war."

 

 

 

Our job is to support Ukraine to the hilt. It's the Ukrainians job to decide when peace negotiations are necessary. 

[cubsfan]

Don't forget - those 800+ bases are largely to the benefit of our many, many allies - much to the unhappiness of aggressor nations such as Russia, N Korea, China and Iran. 

 

Without those bases - you can count on the whole world nuking up to defend themselves.

[Luke]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

When he talks about a  "negotiated peace" without providing good strong arguments on why it won't be a temporary peace, how we can trust Putin, or acknowledging how untrustworthy Putin is,  he's actively misleading his audience. 

Under that premice, it will be ever lasting war. 

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

A document from a negotiation forced upon Ukrainians in their darkest hour, with Russian troops surrounding Kyiv, when they still didn't know the extent of western support they'd receive, and written by a Ukrainian team that was alleged to include Russian double agents, that would allow Russia to keep territory they had seized in the war, and leave Ukraine nearly indefensible in any future invasion. And then the Bucha massacre became public right in the middle of negotiations.

Is Ukraine in a better position now to "negotiate" anything? And how many ten thousand Ukrainian men died since then or are disabled? 

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

Zelenskyy rightly demanded more protections and Russia rejected them. Yet this lying "diplomat" doesn't even address those concerns, just pretends that in his fairy world filled with chocolate streams and gumdrop rain showers everyone would have been happy.

NATO is off the table for Russia and it's a ridiculous demand by the west, nobody in their right mind would accept it, the US wouldn't accept it either themselves if they were in that situation. 

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

Russia invaded Ukraine. It has performed numerous massacres such as a Bucha. It has targeted civilians with military weapons. 

Violence as a reason for more violence, that's not how to de-escalate. 

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

If this donkey doesn't draw a good/evil line against those actions, he's an idiot. Seriously, he's so disingenous he's either a deluded pacifist or he's a paid FSB proxy.

Well, you see why I am saying that YOU should go to war too if shit hits the fan!

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

Russia has genocided tens of millions in the last century alone. Russian troops raped their way through Europe in WW2. They murdered millions in the cold war to keep half of Europe as their slaves. And then after the breakup of the USSR when the west spent hundreds of billions helping them and the former republics they impoverished, they became a dictatorship again. And kept killing and murdering political opponents across Europe and the world, until finally invading free Ukraine to murder and genocide tens of thousands more.

 

And he's confused why Russians are hated? 

So if what you think is a general view of the West, it is understandable that Putin sees a threat that wants his government and their current country removed. Imagine being a Russian speaking Ukrainian with a government that gets supported by people who think like you...why is Putin defending Russians in the East...? BECAUSE, as you said, they are hated  (rightfully so, according to you) So many Russians (huge majority), surprisingly still stand behind Putin but the west just says its a kleptocrat, corrupt, propaganda blablabla...the more you share your view, the more understandable this conflict becomes and the more understandable russias reactions are. 

[Luke]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Don't forget - those 800+ bases are largely to the benefit of our many, many allies - much to the unhappiness of aggressor nations such as Russia, N Korea, China and Iran. 

 

Without those bases - you can count on the whole world nuking up to defend themselves.

It's never good to rely on one country that has a crazy orange man, now convicted felon, upcoming as president and a more and more unstable "democracy". 

[cubsfan]

You are a funny guy @Luca!

[ValueArb]

44 minutes ago, Luca said:

Under that premice, it will be ever lasting war. 

 

Nope. Eventually Putin will fold or be deposed and his successor will find a face saving way out. Thats if Ukraine isn't able to mount an offensive to cut the rail lines into Crimea and force a panicked dash for the last ferries out by Russian forces in Crimea first.  The Ukrainians deeply care about winning, Russians are just meat fodder.

 

44 minutes ago, Luca said:

Is Ukraine in a better position now to "negotiate" anything? And how many ten thousand Ukrainian men died since then or are disabled? 

 

Better position after Russia's mass retreat from the gates of Kyiv? Are you joking? By your logic the Russians were in a worse position after retaking Stalingrad in WW2, given the massive losses it required.

 

44 minutes ago, Luca said:

NATO is off the table for Russia and it's a ridiculous demand by the west, nobody in their right mind would accept it, the US wouldn't accept it either themselves if they were in that situation. 

 

That Zelenskyy quote said nothing about NATO, it said he needed stronger security guarantees. You keep ducking the issue and have no answer for how Ukraine can be assured of its security. And only a putin simp would find NATO membership ridiculous given Poland, Estonia and Finland are members.

 

 

44 minutes ago, Luca said:

Violence as a reason for more violence, that's not how to de-escalate. 

 

Your response to a history of Russian genocides and their invasion of Ukraine is to blame Ukraine for not de-escalating? My comment said literally nothing about how Ukraine should respond, just pointed out how reluctant your failed diplomat was to condemn Russia's documented public atrocities and aggression.

 

44 minutes ago, Luca said:

Well, you see why I am saying that YOU should go to war too if shit hits the fan!

 

Again, this is in response to pointing out doofus diplomat refusing to use the word "evil" for documented russian atrocities and aggression. Are you even capable of having a rational honest conversation where you actually address what was said?

 

44 minutes ago, Luca said:

So if what you think is a general view of the West, it is understandable that Putin sees a threat that wants his government and their current country removed. Imagine being a Russian speaking Ukrainian with a government that gets supported by people who think like you...why is Putin defending Russians in the East...? BECAUSE, as you said, they are hated  (rightfully so, according to you) So many Russians (huge majority), surprisingly still stand behind Putin but the west just says its a kleptocrat, corrupt, propaganda blablabla...the more you share your view, the more understandable this conflict becomes and the more understandable russias reactions are. 

 

You are deluded if you think Russians stand behind Putin willingly. Russia is a police state, and everyone who speaks up against him is rapidly imprisoned, if not murdered. You may believe that the Russian people are so lacking in moral character that they don't care about Russia's genocides and how its caused them to be perceived in the world, but I don't. All of the things Russians are hated for were initiated by its terrible governments and leaders, the same ones who've been oppressing them for hundreds of years back to when they were serfs. 

[Luke]

36 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Nope. Eventually Putin will fold or be deposed and his successor will find a face saving way out. Thats if Ukraine isn't able to mount an offensive to cut the rail lines into Crimea and force a panicked dash for the last ferries out by Russian forces in Crimea first.  The Ukrainians deeply care about winning, Russians are just meat fodder.

 

 

Better position after Russia's mass retreat from the gates of Kyiv? Are you joking? By your logic the Russians were in a worse position after retaking Stalingrad in WW2, given the massive losses it required.

 

 

That Zelenskyy quote said nothing about NATO, it said he needed stronger security guarantees. You keep ducking the issue and have no answer for how Ukraine can be assured of its security. And only a putin simp would find NATO membership ridiculous given Poland, Estonia and Finland are members.

 

 

 

Your response to a history of Russian genocides and their invasion of Ukraine is to blame Ukraine for not de-escalating? My comment said literally nothing about how Ukraine should respond, just pointed out how reluctant your failed diplomat was to condemn Russia's documented public atrocities and aggression.

 

 

Again, this is in response to pointing out doofus diplomat refusing to use the word "evil" for documented russian atrocities and aggression. Are you even capable of having a rational honest conversation where you actually address what was said?

 

 

You are deluded if you think Russians stand behind Putin willingly. Russia is a police state, and everyone who speaks up against him is rapidly imprisoned, if not murdered. You may believe that the Russian people are so lacking in moral character that they don't care about Russia's genocides and how its caused them to be perceived in the world, but I don't. All of the things Russians are hated for were initiated by its terrible governments and leaders, the same ones who've been oppressing them for hundreds of years back to when they were serfs. 

Again, if this is what you have to say regarding Russia and their current leadership and if Western diplomats and leaders think similarly, there is no way that there is any de-escalation happening in this war until the US/UK/GERMANY/FRANCE literally raid Russia and take over the country. And because that is a serious risk and because Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians received huge backlashes in the country, he attacked the country. 

 

As long as the West is unable to establish relations with the Russian state without an absolute evil/black-and-white view, this war will escalate further where either Ukraine completely collapses because of getting close to tactical nukes or we will have full blown war with western forces. 

 

Do you have friends in russia? Were you ever in russia? I have multiple russian friends that still today regularly fly there and putins support is not at all as bad as you try to portrait it. 

Edited May 31, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

But the west is of course obsessed with Navalny and playing this "oppression" story to prepare their societies for further war support and in the end maybe send some of their citizens there for Operation Freedom. 

[Luke]

We will see how this plays out!