Political Posts

[Luke]

China looks towards Taiwan with the fingers on their missile buttons. IF the US continues to harm China and their economy continues to deteriorate, i think it can make sense for china to take taiwan has a hostage and cut off the chip supply. Do a full blockade of the island, bombard it with heavy missiles from the mainland...taiwan isnt investing nearly enough into their military, US still far away...

Edited March 7, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

If China is blocked from global semiconductor trade, bombing TSMC will hurt a bit, but a lot less than if they are included in the supply chains. What it will hurt is the US at that point. So very strategic business for global power and way closer to china to destroy...

[Xerxes]

We are safe.
No worries FDR is currently giving a speech at the State of Union. 
 

Oh wait a minute 

 

Now it changed. Ronald Reagan is giving speech about “Berlin Wall” 

[crs223]

18 hours ago, Luca said:

Whats bothering me the most right now is chinas inability to get the latest high end chips and the continuing pressure on ASML to stop support china with older machines. 

 

What impact will that have on their economies and competitiveness? What if Tesla is allowed to use latest Nvidia chips but BYD cant, making their product inferior? 

 

Essentially, that ban is a complete blockade on chinas development and will effect them literally everywhere. They wont grow as much as the west since they cant have the level of automatization, their tech companies will lag behind, tech products will lag behind compared to the west. 

 

Amazing for the west and US economies, terrible for china...

 

The blockade will force China to develop their own chips and strengthen China.  That was your thought a few months ago.

[crs223]

17 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

I feel bad that the Chinese people get screwed as a result.

 

I’ve been seeing news reports that chinese are illegally entering US via mexico.

 

Chinese prospects not looking good right now.

[ValueArb]

20 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

NATO News [March 7^th 2024] : Sweden officially joins NATO.

 

It is to me the most important step for the future of the Nordic countries in regard to Security policy, combined with Finland joining NATO on April 4^th 2023.

 

Congrats to Sweden, to NATO and to us! Now all we have to do is boot out Yugoslavia, Turkey and Germany;)

Edited March 8, 2024 by ValueArb

[Dinar]

27 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Congrats to Sweden, to NATO and to us! Now all we have to do is boot out Yugoslavia, Turkey and Germany;)

Agree on Turkey and Germany, but Yugoslavia no longer exists.  Neither Serbia nor Croatia are part of NATO.  

[RichardGibbons]

18 hours ago, Luca said:

It doesn't matter what "horrific" things China is doing.

 

Yes, it does.  There's a reason why chips are still going to countries like the UK, Canada, France, Netherlands, and Sweden. It matters whether a country is a democracy abiding by the rules-based order, human rights, and the rule of law.

[Luke]

4 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

Yes, it does.  There's a reason why chips are still going to countries like the UK, Canada, France, Netherlands, and Sweden. It matters whether a country is a democracy abiding by the rules-based order, human rights, and the rule of law.

I strongly disagree. The only thing that matters is that China is a significant competitor of the US on all fronts. Are there sanctions against other countries with human rights abuses? Its one sided against china only. 

[Libs]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

I strongly disagree. The only thing that matters is that China is a significant competitor of the US on all fronts. Are there sanctions against other countries with human rights abuses? Its one sided against china only. 

Here is a list of U.S. Sanctions, from the Treasury Department.

 

https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information

 

Luca- I like your posts on other topics, I think you have a lot to add, but I think you are way off on China. Just look at the drop in foreign investments in China; down 90% since 2021. That's not just because of sanctions or human rights abuses. Investing in a communist country is dangerous as hell. 

[Luke]

2 hours ago, Libs said:

Here is a list of U.S. Sanctions, from the Treasury Department.

 

https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information

 

Luca- I like your posts on other topics, I think you have a lot to add, but I think you are way off on China. Just look at the drop in foreign investments in China; down 90% since 2021. That's not just because of sanctions or human rights abuses. Investing in a communist country is dangerous as hell. 

To reframe: What help are high-end AI chip sanctions for Uyghurs? Which other countries have sanctions for NVIDIA chips? 

 

The sanctions are just there to get the upper hand on China, economically and militarily. China could stop the labor camps now and it wouldn't change anything. And yeah, if china allows LGBTQ folks they will surely get the chips too

 

Why is the US allowed to have AI chips with Assange releasing war crimes to the internet and then faces 175 in a torture cell somewhere in the US? Prisoners were hidden from the red cross...collateral murder by US Apache helicopters, spying on normal citizens without probable cause...

 

But more fundamentally, i seriously hope for chinese investments that they can develop their own chips because i dont think they will get em anytime soon and i think there is a reasonable chance the US can really amplify the control of these for their own benefit. 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

Good illustration of how desperate youtubers have become generating clicks...

[changegonnacome]

On 3/8/2024 at 12:09 PM, Luca said:

I strongly disagree. The only thing that matters is that China is a significant competitor of the US on all fronts. Are there sanctions against other countries with human rights abuses? Its one sided against china only. 

 

Agree broadly. What permeates EVERYTHING with China now is that it has gone from a junior economic partner of the US/West to something akin to a peer competitor across many fronts.

 

Like it or not we have entered into a security competition with China - not because China has changed per se (it was and is a communist dictatorship with a myriad of human rights abuses that are abhorrent when viewed in the context of our societies. They also have and have had for decades national strategic aspirations to take their place again on the world stage and wipe away the century of humiliation.

 

The most interesting aspect of the change in the Chi-Merica relationship is how little has changed about China....in some respects nothing has changed......what's changed recently is OUR collective assessment of China from a strategic competition perspective (economic & militarily).

 

China's intent on any action is now viewed through the lens of mal-intent BECAUSE of that security competition and because they are approaching a level of technological, military and economic power that has the capability to do harm to the USA.

 

On 3/8/2024 at 12:03 PM, RichardGibbons said:

Yes, it does.  There's a reason why chips are still going to countries like the UK, Canada, France, Netherlands, and Sweden. It matters whether a country is a democracy abiding by the rules-based order, human rights, and the rule of law.

 

The global rules based order post-WWII is just that - a rules based system written in effect by the victors dominated by the US/West (WTO, UN, World Bank etc.). I mean look where the physical 'infrastructure' of the rules system are based its like US bingo - NYC (UN), World Bank (D.C.), IMF (D.C.). I guess to not look so bad they threw some stuff over to Switzerland like the WTO in Geneva. I've no problem with this - its the natural order of things - the global superpower gets to call the shots and it gets to tilt the table of 'rules' in its favor. In this respect I commend the USA political leadership post-WWII.....they were/are a rather benign global hegemon, relative to the Empires of the past. Most recently of course it was Britain - that was the torch bearer for its 'version' of the rules based order which was much less benign.

 

But lets not pretend the 'rules based order' is some stone tablet written by God and handed to Moses - the rules based order is a very human set of institutions...which is to say that it's sketching was done hierarchically & based on power and leverage.

 

The China talking point on this is not without merit - in that the 'rules' in the global rules based order were written without Chinas input...they weren't in the room.....they were defeated peasant farmers and less than 1% of global GDP when the WTO rules written......and as they become a greater share of global GDP they would like increasing influence in modifying and evolving those rules where they the table tilted against them.

 

The problem remains that the very idea of a 'real' higher power above nation states is a kind of thinly veiled charade - when the poop hits the fan these institutions that supposedly float above nation states get quickly revealed to be toothless tigers.

 

The names (international court of justice, international criminal court et al.) sound great but in reality......what does it mean when you issue an arrest warrant and nobody gets arrested!

ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Putin

https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and

[Luke]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Agree broadly. What permeates EVERYTHING with China now is that it has gone from a junior economic partner of the US/West to something akin to a peer competitor across many fronts.

 

Like it or not we have entered into a security competition with China - not because China has changed per se (it was and is a communist dictatorship with a myriad of human rights abuses that are abhorrent when viewed in the context of our societies. They also have and have had for decades national strategic aspirations to take their place again on the world stage and wipe away the century of humiliation.

 

The most interesting aspect of the change in the Chi-Merica relationship is how little has changed about China....in some respects nothing has changed......what's changed recently is OUR collective assessment of China from a strategic competition perspective (economic & militarily).

 

China's intent on any action is now viewed through the lens of mal-intent BECAUSE of that security competition and because they are approaching a level of technological, military and economic power that has the capability to do harm to the USA.

 

 

The global rules based order post-WWII is just that - a rules based system written in effect by the victors dominated by the US/West (WTO, UN, World Bank etc.). I mean look where the physical 'infrastructure' of the rules system are based its like US bingo - NYC (UN), World Bank (D.C.), IMF (D.C.). I guess to not look so bad they threw some stuff over to Switzerland like the WTO in Geneva. I've no problem with this - its the natural order of things - the global superpower gets to call the shots and it gets to tilt the table of 'rules' in its favor. In this respect I commend the USA political leadership post-WWII.....they were/are a rather benign global hegemon, relative to the Empires of the past. Most recently of course it was Britain - that was the torch bearer for its 'version' of the rules based order which was much less benign.

+

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

But lets not pretend the 'rules based order' is some stone tablet written by God and handed to Moses - the rules based order is a very human set of institutions...which is to say that it's sketching was done hierarchically & based on power and leverage.

Its also not very democratic setup either, US+Europe is 1b people. China alone is more than that, then you have the Brics nations which historically didn't have much say either...

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

The names (international court of justice, international criminal court et al.) sound great but in reality......what does it mean when you issue an arrest warrant and nobody gets arrested!

ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Putin

https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and

I mean, putin cant go into countries that accept the power of these courts so they are working in someway dont they? 

[Luke]

Also find it quite funny that western countries focus SO much on "DEMOCRACY" (the process) while OUTCOMES apparently seem to matter less. I have to say, I care more for the outcome of a society than for the process and id say that is true for a large swatch of chinese people. Sure we have some rebellious journalists or students etc, the west has greta thunberg etc, doesnt mean that these people are necessarily correct with what they want although they make good headlines. 

 

What will matter to the chinese joe is growth per capita, feelable development of their environment, wealth increase for everyone. Not if he can vote black or white and nothing changes. 

[ValueArb]

On 3/8/2024 at 9:48 AM, Dinar said:

Agree on Turkey and Germany, but Yugoslavia no longer exists.  Neither Serbia nor Croatia are part of NATO.  

 

Does that officially make me a doddering old man when I confuse Yugoslavia and Hungary?

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

Does that officially make me a doddering old man when I confuse Yugoslavia and Hungary?

You will officially become an old man when given a choice between going out with a beautiful girl and having a quiet evening at home you choose the latter!

[Luke]

On 3/8/2024 at 5:20 PM, ValueArb said:

Congrats to Sweden, to NATO and to us! Now all we have to do is boot out Yugoslavia, Turkey and Germany;)

Why are we getting booted out? 

 

 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Why are we getting booted out? 

 

 

 

You complain too much about your Nord Stream pipeline getting a "makeover"

A true NATOrian would give up his/her firstborn for the cause, no question asks !! no ifs, no buts

 

Ask Not What NATO Can Do for You, Ask What YOU Can Do for NATO (hint: +2% GDP would be start)

 

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Why are we getting booted out? 

 

 

 

Blocking EU aid to Ukraine, dragging feet on Russian sanctions, trying to block Finland and Sweden from NATO, trying to block Ukraine EU bid, cozying up to Putin, etc, etc etc.

 

I'm all for reconsidering once Orban is out of power.

[Xerxes]

3 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Blocking EU aid to Ukraine, dragging feet on Russian sanctions, trying to block Finland and Sweden from NATO, trying to block Ukraine EU bid, cozying up to Putin, etc, etc etc.

 

I'm all for reconsidering once Orban is out of power.

 

@Luca is German

[Luke]

9 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Blocking EU aid to Ukraine, dragging feet on Russian sanctions, trying to block Finland and Sweden from NATO, trying to block Ukraine EU bid, cozying up to Putin, etc, etc etc.

 

I'm all for reconsidering once Orban is out of power.

Leaving nato ultimately would be a good thing for germany honestly, we can finally stop the non sense in ukraine, get our cheap energy back and drive up our industrial machine, not be involved in military conflicts all over the world and time to focus on our economy...getting to a position like switzerland, neutral...one can dream. 

 

 

[Xerxes]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

 

“The war has absolutely “transformed” Russia’s economy, the NATO official said, from the post-Soviet period when oil was the leading sector. Now, defense is the largest sector of the Russian economy, and oil is paying for it.

That creates some long-term imbalances that will likely be problematic for Russia, but for now, it’s working, the NATO official and Basham, the US European Command official, both said.

“In the short term — say, the next 18 months or so — it may be unsophisticated, but it’s a durable economy,” the NATO official said.”

 

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2024 by Xerxes

[ValueArb]

6 hours ago, Luca said:

Leaving nato ultimately would be a good thing for germany honestly, we can finally stop the non sense in ukraine, get our cheap energy back and drive up our industrial machine, not be involved in military conflicts all over the world and time to focus on our economy...getting to a position like switzerland, neutral...one can dream. 

 

 

 

Germany is the beneficiary of at least a trillion in US subsidies the last 70 years to rebuild it and protect it from the USSR and Russia. It leaving NATO would be great for the US, we could reduce NATO spending obligations by pulling our troops out and closing Ramstein, and use Germany as buffer space in the next big european war. While its being overrun would give us more time to align defenses for the rest of free europe. 

[Luke]

7 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Germany is the beneficiary of at least a trillion in US subsidies the last 70 years to rebuild it and protect it from the USSR and Russia. It leaving NATO would be great for the US, we could reduce NATO spending obligations by pulling our troops out and closing Ramstein, and use Germany as buffer space in the next big european war. While its being overrun would give us more time to align defenses for the rest of free europe. 

About time we get independent from the US, especially considering what kind of presidents are voted for...is Trumpe a reliable nato partner? Absolutely not. 

 

Germany upsizes military spending, either gets control of french nuclear weapons in an alliance between the two countries, or asks for their own (lol). 

 

As you can see by my illustration, your nato partners already provide enough buffer space for us were you have to protect these countries before russia or china reaches us: Win Win. The rocket defense domes are produced in germany too, we shall up the spending! 

 

 

 

With better russian relations we can built/reuse our pipelines again, start a large industrial stimulus and germany will be great again! 

 

On top comes that we dont get drawn between the US and China, can keep china as an ally/market/ressource partner!