Political Posts

[Luke]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/us/politics/trump-2025-trade-china.html#:~:text=Mr. Trump has said he,like electronics%2C steel and pharmaceuticals

 

Mr. Trump has said he would “enact aggressive new restrictions on Chinese ownership” of a broad range of assets in the United States, bar Americans from investing in China and phase in a complete ban on imports of key categories of Chinese-made goods like electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals.

 

 

 

 

 

In 2018, the Trump administration set tariffs on more than $360 billion in goods, in an effort to encourage Americans to purchase domestic products. In response, China set its own tariffs on more than $110 billion worth of U.S. goods.

 

The conflict is still ongoing, and so far, there’s no clear winner in sight. The tariffs and trade barriers have hurt both countries, and with bilateral trade sputtering, many are left wondering if the peak of globalization is well behind us.

 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/biggest-trade-partner-of-each-country-1960-2020/

[Luke]

Would be bearish for Chinese equities initially if Trump gets reelected...

[ICUMD]

From those diagrams, China is still very well interconnected. Further, a made in USA mandate will likely stoke inflation. 

 

No easy choices.

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

From those diagrams, China is still very well interconnected. Further, a made in USA mandate will likely stoke inflation. 

 

No easy choices.

Yep

 

 

[cubsfan]

26 minutes ago, Luca said:

Would be bearish for Chinese equities initially if Trump gets reelected...

 

And very bullish for US stocks...

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

And very bullish for US stocks...

How many Jobs will fall away if the US can't export to China? I mean yeah, US citizens will buy more expensive US made goods but what about Chinese buying US goods? Is it fundamentally that easy to say "fuck china" and be good? @cubsfan

[cubsfan]

8 minutes ago, Luca said:

How many Jobs will fall away if the US can't export to China? I mean yeah, US citizens will buy more expensive US made goods but what about Chinese buying US goods? Is it fundamentally that easy to say "fuck china" and be good? @cubsfan

 

It was very good for the country when he was the US President, and I see no reason why it won't be again. For one, the energy "jobs" will be a boon to the economy, and the destruction of useless regulations will fuel corporate profits and jobs. President Biden has strangled this economy with low paying jobs and inflation.

 

China can do whatever they like - I'm concerned about a thriving US economy. @Luca

[Xerxes]

On 12/26/2023 at 1:25 PM, ValueArb said:

When the hiding civilians were first discovered by Russians the soldiers told them "we are here to liberate you from the Nazis!" and couldn't believe the civilians when they said there were no Nazis.

How many of U.S. military personal were surprised after the fact, that almost everything coming out of Colin Powell mouth at the U.N. circa 2003, was mostly all made up stuff and lies. It was so bad that even Colin Powell didn’t know as he was being thrown under the bus by his “colleagues”. 
 

Soldiers follow orders. Just as the top brass does. It is that or treason.
 

Only when one side has overwhelming won, can the other side setup courts to determine if the other side’ military top brass was following illegal orders. And it will all matter of interpretation, politics and the usual bullshit. 

 

Had Japan won the Second World War, there would be tribunal of the war criminals, and on top of the list would be: General Lemay

[Xerxes]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/17/world/putin-companies-economy-boycott-elites-benefit-ukraine-war.html
 

Looks like that as major stock market indices took a plunge in 2022, as Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine to confiscate Nazi WMDs, it was in fact Putin and his pals that truly “bought the dip”.

 

[ValueArb]

Their foreign currency reserves will pay for all of that, and much much more. Owning all the Starbucks in the larger of the hermit kingdoms isn't going to make up for costs of losing trade.

[cubsfan]

22 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

Had Japan won the Second World War, there would be tribunal of the war criminals, and on top of the list would be: General Lemay

 

So true. To the victor go the spoils. At least Curtis saved millions of lives. A dirty, nasty job that someone had to do to end the war.

 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

So true. To the victor go the spoils. At least Curtis saved millions of lives. A dirty, nasty job that someone had to do to end the war.

 

For clarity, I was not referring to the nuclear attacks against the unlucky twin cities. That was a presidential call. And that made sense. I was referring to the insane firebombing of Tokyo in May 1945 which Lemay planned. War or not. That (using napalm in a city made of papers) was just the too much. 
 

Patton, Marshall, Nimitz, Halesay and even the unhinged Mcarthur were real soldiers.
 

Lemay was just the American version of Yamashita. In turn a Japanese could argue that Yamashita’ act in the Philippines were also needed to end the war quickly. 
 

Anyways don’t mean to debate on this. Was just clarifying what I meant. We should be thinking about better things so close to the new year. 
 

All the best in 2024 

[cubsfan]

16 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

For clarity, I was not referring to the nuclear attacks against the unlucky twin cities. That was a presidential call. And that made sense. I was referring to the insane firebombing of Tokyo in May 1945 which Lemay planned. War or not. That (using napalm in a city made of papers) was just the too much. 
 

Patton, Marshall, Nimitz, Halesay and even the unhinged Mcarthur were real soldiers.
 

Lemay was just the American version of Yamashita. In turn a Japanese could argue that Yamashita’ act in the Philippines were also needed to end the war quickly. 
 

Anyways don’t mean to debate on this. Was just clarifying what I meant. We should be thinking about better things so close to the new year. 
 

All the best in 2024 

 

I knew exactly what you meant. And I know that you know your history. 100,000 Japanese civilians died in the firebombing (??).

 

And it's a terrible moral dilemma when you are faced with the issue of how to stop a brutal, sadistic regime like the Japanese empire. The Japanese armed forces killed 16,000,000 Asian CIVILIANS - mostly through mass executions, forced conscription and starvation starting in 1931 Manchuria.  Japan lost 2,000,000 soldiers and 1,000,000 civilians - yet for EACH soldier Japan lost they killed EIGHT civilians.  So you can debate the morals of Curtis Lemay, who started the bombing campaign in March 1945 and helped to accelerate an end to the Japanese civilian killing machine.

 

Like I said - Someone had to help save millions of civilian lives. And that would be Lemay's contribution to the war effort.

 

Happy Holidays to you as well.

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

I knew exactly what you meant. And I know that you know your history. 100,000 Japanese civilians died in the firebombing (??).

 

And it's a terrible moral dilemma when you are faced with the issue of how to stop a brutal, sadistic regime like the Japanese empire. The Japanese armed forces killed 16,000,000 Asian CIVILIANS - mostly through mass executions, forced conscription and starvation starting in 1931 Manchuria.  Japan lost 2,000,000 soldiers and 1,000,000 civilians - yet for EACH soldier Japan lost they killed EIGHT civilians.  So you can debate the morals of Curtis Lemay, who started the bombing campaign in March 1945 and helped to accelerate an end to the Japanese civilian killing machine.

 

Like I said - Someone had to help save millions of civilian lives. And that would be Lemay's contribution to the war effort.

 

Happy Holidays to you as well.

 

Its a sad fact but sometimes to end a war you have to bring the consequences to the home front.

[Luke]

 

 

 

[Pelagic]

An interesting article on the Ukrainian drone boat attacks on Novorossiysk in August. Following the attacks on a Russian amphibious ship and tanker, western partners almost immediately responded warning Ukraine to knock it off, fearing it would jeopardize oil exports from Novorossiysk. However, the article makes the point that it seems to have had the intended effect in letting the Russians know that two can play at blockading commerce on the Black Sea and allowed Ukraine to establish its own export corridor.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/01/1/7435418/ 

[james22]

Once you start thinking about growth, it's hard to think about anything else.

 

https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/the-china-degrowth-syndrome

[Spekulatius]

Trade war getting serious - Cognac. They cleverly target French goods since French politicians were behind the EU antitrust/ dumping claim for Chinese EV sales in Europe.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-launches-anti-dumping-investigation-brandy-imported-european-union-2024-01-05/

 

Porsche/ LVMH etc also have a lot to lose here.

[Ulti]

https://www.seafarerfunds.com/prevailing-winds/china-commission-testimony-2023/

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

China’s Current Economy: Implications for Investors and Supply Chains August 2023

 

 At least for me, a well thought out presentation of China's issues and how the US should interact.

 

[Ulti]

https://www.seafarerfunds.com/prevailing-winds/

 

Not an investor in the fund but some occasional  commentary  on China financ\econ (Does not discuss funds).

[Ulti]

https://www.thewirechina.com/

A paid site but seems well worth it if you are investing in China

[ValueArb]

Someone keeps pushing the narrative that explosives for the Nordstream blasts were planted nearly 300 feet deep in the frigid baltic by a Ukrainian dive team using amateur scuba equipment from a "yacht" that could fit in a backyard pool. 

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-probe-faces-resistance-from-poland-962aa5f9?mod=hp_lead_pos6

 

No one ever investigates the idea that pipelines frequently explode from poor maintenance, that the Russians are terrible at pipeline maintenance without western expert help, and that the pressure/temperature conditions that trigger dissolution of one methane hydrate block can frequently trigger others in nearby pipelines.

 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

 

[Pelagic]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Someone keeps pushing the narrative that explosives for the Nordstream blasts were planted nearly 300 feet deep in the frigid baltic by a Ukrainian dive team using amateur scuba equipment from a "yacht" that could fit in a backyard pool. 

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-probe-faces-resistance-from-poland-962aa5f9?mod=hp_lead_pos6

 

No one ever investigates the idea that pipelines frequently explode from poor maintenance, that the Russians are terrible at pipeline maintenance without western expert help, and that the pressure/temperature conditions that trigger dissolution of one methane hydrate block can frequently trigger others in nearby pipelines.

 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

 

 

While I wouldn't discount the ability of Ukrainian divers to pull off an operation to destroy the pipelines, a lot of people forget about the actual issues the Nord Stream line was having during the summer of 2022 before the explosions. Only one of the two Nord Stream lines was in use because there was only one functional compressor, and even that line was taken offline for maintenance a few times leading to some wild spikes in Euro gas futures in August. There was an available replacement that had been sent to Canada for maintenance but it was held up due to sanctions and was unlikely to ever be released given the war in Ukraine.

 

My personal theory has always been that Russia blew up 3 out of the 4 pipes in an attempt to force Germany to approve transit on the undamaged and entirely functional Nord Stream 2 line. Russia figured the parts they had available for both Nord Stream 1 lines were failing or had failed and the line would be unviable soon anyways. Why not try to force Germany's hand by making one of the functional but unused Nord Stream 2 lines the only available option, with all the parts from the other, damaged, NS 2 line available as spares. Then sow as much disinfo as possible to confuse who did it. Volumes would be roughly equal or even a little more through NS2-B than what they were supplying in summer '22 through the single NS1 line and Russia expected prices to remain elevated a lot more so than they did.

 

Reuters article from August 22 regarding compressor issues https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-says-nord-stream-1-pipeline-shut-three-days-end-aug-2022-08-19/

 

And then less than two weeks after the Nord Stream explosions, here's Putin saying oh by the way we can still send you guys gas through the one pipe that's left https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-moots-major-gas-hub-turkey-with-nord-stream-supplies-2022-10-12/

 

 

 

 

[ValueArb]

17 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

 

While I wouldn't discount the ability of Ukrainian divers to pull off an operation to destroy the pipelines, a lot of people forget about the actual issues the Nord Stream line was having during the summer of 2022 before the explosions. Only one of the two Nord Stream lines was in use because there was only one functional compressor, and even that line was taken offline for maintenance a few times leading to some wild spikes in Euro gas futures in August. There was an available replacement that had been sent to Canada for maintenance but it was held up due to sanctions and was unlikely to ever be released given the war in Ukraine.

 

My personal theory has always been that Russia blew up 3 out of the 4 pipes in an attempt to force Germany to approve transit on the undamaged and entirely functional Nord Stream 2 line. Russia figured the parts they had available for both Nord Stream 1 lines were failing or had failed and the line would be unviable soon anyways. Why not try to force Germany's hand by making one of the functional but unused Nord Stream 2 lines the only available option, with all the parts from the other, damaged, NS 2 line available as spares. Then sow as much disinfo as possible to confuse who did it. Volumes would be roughly equal or even a little more through NS2-B than what they were supplying in summer '22 through the single NS1 line and Russia expected prices to remain elevated a lot more so than they did.

 

Reuters article from August 22 regarding compressor issues https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-says-nord-stream-1-pipeline-shut-three-days-end-aug-2022-08-19/

 

And then less than two weeks after the Nord Stream explosions, here's Putin saying oh by the way we can still send you guys gas through the one pipe that's left https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-moots-major-gas-hub-turkey-with-nord-stream-supplies-2022-10-12/

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not a scuba diver but I'm pretty sure the amount of equipment needed to safely work at the depths the pipelines were at wouldn't fit on that little boat. I've been told they would need trimix, dry suits, and a lot of extra tanks mixed with the correct breathing mixes for the lowest depths as well as on way up and down.  And it would be a crazy bad decision by Ukraine to do this, given how the pipeline had already been shut down and how desperately they needed western aid at the time (and now). 

 

I might be a little nuts about the maintenance theory (check my post history, I might be a lot nuts about it) but my frustration is it's never been addressed, let alone debunked. Every article I read the assumption is that it could only have been intentional sabotage. My theory is that Putin and Gazprom thought Europe's unity would crack during the winter when gas prices skyrocketed and they come crawling back begging for Russian gas, so Gazprom attempted to clear the methane hydrates from the pipelines to prep them for use and thats hella difficult to do from a single end for even the most skilled operators.   

Edited January 8, 2024 by ValueArb
my theory

[james22]

US intelligence indicates that President Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge came after it emerged that widespread corruption undermined his efforts to modernize the armed forces and raised questions about China’s ability to fight a war, according to people familiar with the assessments.

 

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=56913

 

Has to make action against Taiwan less likely.