Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

Just a reminder that China GDP growth data needs to be taken with a large grain of salt. In Martinez study, they seemed one of the biggest offender in juicing their results together with Myanamar

 https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/350051528721174623/Nightlights.pdf

 

Their real GDP growth is probably about 1/3 less of what they show in their data, if you believe the nightlight correlation:

 

[Spekulatius]

17 hours ago, Haryana said:

 

Curious to know whether the Chinese also exclude the large % of discouraged workers like it is done in US and Canada? 

 

I don’t know about discouraged workers, but I know for fact that China has issues like

a homeless population. The problem is all related to illegal migrants that just decide to move into cities, even though they are not allowed too (you can’t necessarily move where you want in China).

 

Not sure how large that is and how this has changed, but I was surprised to find a large homeless population of people living in cardboard “houses” under Highway overpasses and bridges when walking in  Suzhou one day because I couldn’t get a taxi. Quite an eye opening experience actually.

 

These are the fallout from illegal migrants who decide to move into larger cities, even though they are not allowed to. Most live illegally with relatives, friends end what not, but some end up being homeless nd make do in cardboard boxes. They are still likely registered in their home cities where they come from.

 

There are all sort of caveat emptors you need to be aware of when you look at Chinese data. This is probably true everywhere, but in China even more so.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Spekulatius

[maplevalue]

Interesting article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-ev-juggernaut-is-a-warning-for-the-west-1389f718?mod=Searchresults_pos6&page=1

 

"How is China in contention to lead the world’s most lucrative and prestigious consumer goods market, one long dominated by American, European, Japanese and South Korean nameplates? The answer is a unique combination of industrial policy, protectionism and homegrown competitive dynamism. Western policy makers and business leaders are better prepared for the first two than the third. "

 

"When Western auto executives flew in for April’s Shanghai auto show, “they saw a sea of green plates, a sea of Chinese brands,” said Le, referring to the green license plates assigned to clean-energy vehicles in China. “They hear the sounds of the door closing, sit inside and look at the quality of the materials, the fabric or the plastic on the console, that’s the other holy s— moment—they’ve caught up to us.”

"Still, the threat to Western auto market share posed by Chinese EVs is one for which Western policy makers have no obvious answer. “You can shut off your own market and to a certain extent that will shield production for your domestic needs,” said Sebastian. “The question really is, what are you going to do for the global south, countries that are still very happily trading with China?” 

 

[changegonnacome]

 

Backing a nuclear rat into a corner - is not a good strategy - is it saber rattling right now, for sure it is......do country's do crazy erratic bonkers things when they are backed into a corner & their survival is at stake, sure they do......remember little 1941 Japan attacking the mighty USA at Pearl Harbor......pretty crazy huh?.....bonkers even......with a 99% probability that Japan would end up being totally destroyed in an all out confrontation with the USA & and less than 1% chance they would succeed in anyway militarily but they still did it. Why? Because their survival was threatened and they were being backed corner - like Buffet's purchasing of the trading companies there recently for this very reason - Japan in the late 1930's & early 40's was completely dependent on foreign imports - oil and steel.

 

In a ratcheting up of hostilities in Asia where the Japanese were the aggressors the US began to work on various embargoes and sanctions against Japan:

 

> 1938 - the USA proposed with Britain to blockade the whole island. Britain refused on the grounds it was too escalatory

> 1938 - US stopped supplying Japan with machined parts & aviation fuel....cutting off oil, was considered too extreme given Japan's complete dependence on US oil.

> 1940 - further scrap steel sanctions were put in place, strangling Japanese economy

> July 1941 - complete & total embargo of all oil exports to Japan.....Japan economy was internally imploding

> Oct 1941 - Japanese economy estimated to have 3 months of oil reserves remaining

> Nov 1941 - Pearl Harbor attack

 

It was outright CRAZY for Japan to attack the United States at Pearl Harbor...they effectively signed their own obituary with that act.

 

They did it anyway.

 

We should thank India, China & various African/Middle East nations....basically half the planets population..... for not going along with Biden's sanctions dream. Squeezing the Russian economy & raising the costs for their act of war in Ukraine is appropriate........but too much of good thing can be a bad thing......US sanctions policy if completely successful in getting India + others on board would have strangled the Russian economy to death in 2022/early 2023.

 

1941 Japan resorted to a crazy, hair brained and sure to fail act of aggression at Pearl Harbor when sufficiently corned (estimates suggest Japan was on course to completely run out of oil/aviation fuel by Feb 1942) leaving it completely defenseless against attacks from its enemies (China/USA etc.). They decided to launch an attack on the United States at Pearl Harbor that was destined to fail.

 

Now imagine 1941 Japan again but this time they have 5,977 intercontinental nuclear missles.

[Spekulatius]

Putin always mentioned his nukes when he is losing.

 

If we back down on Ukraine, Russia still has 5977 inter continental missiles and he knows for sure his strategy is working and will use it again and again.

 

The only think that neutralize nuclear threats are nukes. So eventually Ukraine might become a nuclear power just for the sake of neutralizing The Russian threat. About 20 ICBM from mobile launch platforms sites would do. Perhaps even one or two nuclear armed sub in the black sea as well.

 

Putin isn’t a rat in a corner either. He is an aggressive rat that attacked a smaller mouse next to his claimed territory. He can always go back to his rathole.

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

46 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

If we back down on Ukraine, Russia still has 5977

 

Not suggesting we back down....but also kinda suggesting we in the West don't attempt or lets call it aspire to 'win' so completely either...which I know is tough when you get into war one automatically begins to think in binary outcomes and surely 'winning' is the point of getting into a conflict in the first place, right?.......however the above Japan thingy was just a little thought experiment for those that dream of 'winning' and 'defeating' Russia so completely in this conflict....defeated nations do crazy, irrational & unpredictable things......so I guess what I'm saying is be careful of what you wish for, you just might get it......as folks never quite think through what peril exists in the West/Ukraine 'winning' so completely in this conflict.

 

You know the dream on CNN.......retired Generals with maps and videos of a Russian army bloodied and battered retreating as Ukraine with NATO equipment drives East, pushing Russian forces out of Ukraine taking back the Donbass/Crimea (which are now due to emigration of Ukrainian's at the start of the war....are really just majority full of ethnically Russian people now).....& who knows maybe Ukraine in gaining these now ethically Russian regions engages in a little ethnic cleansing as payback for Russian atrocities (not sure anybody would be surprised if this happened?)....and maybe to be safe the Ukrainian army decides to push its battles lines deep into Russian territory to create some security space....all while maybe further wins & progress on the sanctions front from the Biden administration means India signs up & refuses Russian oil.....and the Russian economy begins to implode......sounds like the WH's and the Western medias dream scenario........but then stop and think what that all looks like from a seat in the Kremlin.....then think about what an Imperial Japan so defeated in Oct 1941 was so recklessly willing to do in its final throes......they attacked a nation ten times their size with a military capability with no hope of achieving anything.

 

Their reckless abandon when faced with total defeat is best illustrated by a word that jumped from their language into our language  - 'kamikaze'

 

I wonder what the Russian equivalent word for 'kamikaze' is? I hope I never find out. 

[Dinar]

12 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Not suggesting we back down....but also kinda suggesting we in the West don't attempt or lets call it aspire to 'win' so completely either...which I know is tough when you get into war one automatically begins to think in binary outcomes and surely 'winning' is the point of getting into a conflict in the first place, right?.......however the above Japan thingy was just a little thought experiment for those that dream of 'winning' and 'defeating' Russia so completely in this conflict....defeated nations do crazy, irrational & unpredictable things......so I guess what I'm saying is be careful of what you wish for, you just might get it......as folks never quite think through what peril exists in the West/Ukraine 'winning' so completely in this conflict.

 

You know the dream on CNN.......retired Generals with maps and videos of a Russian army bloodied and battered retreating as Ukraine with NATO equipment drives East, pushing Russian forces out of Ukraine taking back the Donbass/Crimea (which are now due to emigration of Ukrainian's at the start of the war....are really just majority full of ethnically Russian people now).....& who knows maybe Ukraine in gaining these now ethically Russian regions engages in a little ethnic cleansing as payback for Russian atrocities (not sure anybody would be surprised if this happened?)....and maybe to be safe the Ukrainian army decides to push its battles lines deep into Russian territory to create some security space....all while maybe further wins & progress on the sanctions front from the Biden administration means India signs up & refuses Russian oil.....and the Russian economy begins to implode......sounds like the WH's and the Western medias dream scenario........but then stop and think what that all looks like from a seat in the Kremlin.....then think about what an Imperial Japan so defeated in Oct 1941 was so recklessly willing to do in its final throes......they attacked a nation ten times their size with a military capability with no hope of achieving anything.

 

Their reckless abandon when faced with total defeat is best illustrated by a word that jumped from their language into our language  - 'kamikaze'

 

I wonder what the Russian equivalent word for 'kamikaze' is? I hope I never find out. 

Alexander Matrosov is what you are looking for.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Matrosov.  Not perfect but close enough.  https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P7192.pdf

[Spekulatius]

Kamikaze never works and the actual Russian soldier doing his work doesn’t believe in what he is doing, unlike in WW2. They are the attackers and they are left out to die on the frontline there. Those that go home will be a very potent threat to Putin. Even with Putins control of the media this will become a huge problem for them.

 

On a different note, a Michael Clark from Sky News mentioned that the African leaders are not really on a peace deal visit in Ukraine and Russia. Instead, want to make sure that the grain deal gets extended another year, because they are dependent on grain imports and no deal mean higher prices for them. This makes sense to me.

[cubsfan]

5 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Backing a nuclear rat into a corner - is not a good strategy - is it saber rattling right now, for sure it is......do country's do crazy erratic bonkers things when they are backed into a corner & their survival is at stake, sure they do......remember little 1941 Japan attacking the mighty USA at Pearl Harbor......pretty crazy huh?.....bonkers even......with a 99% probability that Japan would end up being totally destroyed in an all out confrontation with the USA & and less than 1% chance they would succeed in anyway militarily but they still did it. Why? Because their survival was threatened and they were being backed corner - like Buffet's purchasing of the trading companies there recently for this very reason - Japan in the late 1930's & early 40's was completely dependent on foreign imports - oil and steel.

 

In a ratcheting up of hostilities in Asia where the Japanese were the aggressors the US began to work on various embargoes and sanctions against Japan:

 

> 1938 - the USA proposed with Britain to blockade the whole island. Britain refused on the grounds it was too escalatory

> 1938 - US stopped supplying Japan with machined parts & aviation fuel....cutting off oil, was considered too extreme given Japan's complete dependence on US oil.

> 1940 - further scrap steel sanctions were put in place, strangling Japanese economy

> July 1941 - complete & total embargo of all oil exports to Japan.....Japan economy was internally imploding

> Oct 1941 - Japanese economy estimated to have 3 months of oil reserves remaining

> Nov 1941 - Pearl Harbor attack

 

It was outright CRAZY for Japan to attack the United States at Pearl Harbor...they effectively signed their own obituary with that act.

 

They did it anyway.

 

We should thank India, China & various African/Middle East nations....basically half the planets population..... for not going along with Biden's sanctions dream. Squeezing the Russian economy & raising the costs for their act of war in Ukraine is appropriate........but too much of good thing can be a bad thing......US sanctions policy if completely successful in getting India + others on board would have strangled the Russian economy to death in 2022/early 2023.

 

1941 Japan resorted to a crazy, hair brained and sure to fail act of aggression at Pearl Harbor when sufficiently corned (estimates suggest Japan was on course to completely run out of oil/aviation fuel by Feb 1942) leaving it completely defenseless against attacks from its enemies (China/USA etc.). They decided to launch an attack on the United States at Pearl Harbor that was destined to fail.

 

Now imagine 1941 Japan again but this time they have 5,977 intercontinental nuclear missles.

What you’re missing here is a couple of the key reasons WWII was so destructive. Pre-WWII, the USA had a strict policy of isolationism. Americans said flat out - we’re not fighting, we’re not getting involved. The Japanese knew this, and had no respect for America’s will to fight. If they were ever going to take the Philippines, Japan was going to have to take out the US Navy. It certainly backfired. Like Britain’s appeasement of Germany, US policy signaled to the aggressors- no will to fight. We’ll make noise and impose sanctions, but we’ve No stomach for a fight - and we’ve told the American people as such.

 

If the USA and UK had diplomatically sent strong messages of deterrence to both Japan & Germany - the chances for a worldwide war would have been diminished.

 

Fortunately for the Allies,  the United States produced more equipment & armaments than all the Allies and Allied force put together.

 

The big mistake for Britain was appeasement of Germany. The big mistake for the USA was isolationism on all fronts.

 

No matter how strong you are or how great your army is - when you signal to the bully that you have no will to protect yourself or your friends - the bully is going to try and take you out and the conflict gets worse.

 

This is what’s lost on the pacifist.

Edited June 17, 2023 by cubsfan

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Kamikaze never works

Kamikaze + nuclear works very well. That was my point. I wasn’t trying to get you to think about Russian pilots flying planes into aircraft carriers. It was a case study in how extreme and reckless a nation state, but let’s call it a regime, can act when it’s survival is threatened. They will act and take courses of action you could never imagine possible & you would discount  as being too reckless to be possible. This was Japan in 1941…it was so bonkers they would attack the US on home turf that is beggared belief when it happened.

 

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Russian soldier doing his work doesn’t believe in what he is doing, unlike in WW2

Your forgetting the golden rule - nationalism is the greatest force in our time….global Russo-Phobia is at an all time high…we took their McDonald’s away……we are attempting to make the average Russian family poorer via OUR actions (you or I would say Putin is doing this but it doesn’t matter what you or I say we don’t program Russian State media)…..a narrative can be spun where we in the West are taking bread from their table….I’m not too sure what the level of extreme Russian nationalism was prior to February 2022 invasion was….but let me help you with something……it’s higher today than it was then, for sure, regardless of what the BBC/CNN tells you about the Russian state collapsing from the inside or widespread discontent….I look forward to seeing it but the book says you strangle a country economically, you strengthen the regime & stoke nationalism…..the people in Russia are being fed propaganda for sure….but that’s beside the point…we are supplying Putin the raw materials & kindling required to fuel Russian nationalism…if he’s unable to get the fire lit it would amount to an even greater failure of his leadership than his misjudged invasion of Ukraine. I would caution believing narratives about the average Russian person losing faith in his/her own country’s leadership. Nothing stirs the blood like perceived or real conflict.

[Spekulatius]

Theories abound, but the evidence to me is that not NATO expansion, but. The prospect of a democratic Ukraine is what really scared Putin, because it undermines his autocratic power.

The evidence that points to this is timing. Russia invaded Ukraine the first time in 2014 after the Orange Revolution when they chased away Russia friendly President Yanukovych was changed away and and exiled to Russia.

 

https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears-most/

 

Why would NATO extension be an issue for Russia? At some point Yeltsin and even Putin contemplated joining NATO. There is absolutely no reason why Russia could not have joined NATO just like Poland etc.

[rohitc99]

17 hours ago, Haryana said:

 

That sounds unfair, a simlar argument could easily be made about India as well using just a few India specific stereotypes.

Sure you can say that, unless you are based in India or have invested and understand the country dynamics. Then you can separate the signal from the noise

 

However for me china does not fall in that category. I have no clue how to handicap the geopolitical risks and hence my comment. If one has an intimate knowledge of the country and its dynamics then they have an edge. 

 

We extend that argument to a sector too. If you dont understand the risk, why would you underwrite it?

 

My comment was tongue in cheek and not a reflection on the country or its risk. Its just that if you have to guess and learn based on other people's opinion, then why take that risk?

 

Just my opinion, but same has occurred with fairfax and their investments in africa v/s china. My guess is Prem watsa grew up in India. That definitely gives him a far deeper insight into the country compared to say africa or china ? 

[Spekulatius]

The EV industry in China is hugely competitive and it’s likely they are going to be major players in second / third world countries. They could take away a lot of market shares from Toyota,  VW and the likes. I doubt that they will be allowed to gain much market share in the US. Europe is probably more likely, but any self driving Chinese car is a no no for obvious espionage reasons.

[John Hjorth]

38 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

... Why would NATO extension be an issue for Russia? At some point Yeltsin and even Putin contemplated joining NATO. There is absolutely no reason why Russia could not have joined NATO just like Poland etc.

 

I simply don't get the above quoted. Please elaborate.

[cubsfan]

Your options are: do you let expansionism go unchecked? Do you let Putin, with his threat of nukes, then take the Baltic States, Poland in a few years?  Continue to appease the despot? Ignore him, like the US ignored Japan with no threat of military action. Like Stanley Baldwin ignored the NAZI’s? Hoping with one more conquest they’ll be happy?

 

Hardly. Sadly human nature does not change- there will always be evil people the world needs protection from. They are never appeased and don’t go away until they are stopped. 
 

I’d venture to say , despots like Putin tell you , they will use their nukes until you tell them the game is OVER. You are done terrorizing the world.

 

that’s the only language Putin respects.

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I simply don't get the above quoted. Please elaborate.

Isn’t it simple? The Cold War was over in 1990. NATO and Russia started to collaborate and this lasted until the early 2000 when Putin decided that Russia wanted to become an antagonistic superpower again. When Putin gained power in the 1999 election, he was perceived to be a strongman but not unfriendly against the west at all. This only become evident years later. I think he made up his mind after he gained power.

[John Hjorth]

I haven't been much in doubt about the last line of yours above lately, @cubsfan,

 

It was the post about Russia joining NATO by @Spekulatius that triggered my post. Source?

[Spekulatius]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

I haven't been much in doubt about the last line of yours above lately, @cubsfan,

 

It was the post about Russia joining NATO by @Spekulatius that triggered my post. Source?

Read up the article I posted above.

[Spekulatius]

In simple words, Putin is not so much afraid of NATO expansion, he is afraid of Democratic expansion in former Soviet Union states.

 

Having a Democratic and prosperous Ukraine would be an incredible problem for Putin eventually l because Russian may question the current state of affairs.

 

Same with China, HK and Taiwan actually. A free and prosperous Taiwan basically tells the Chinese people that we don’t need to CCP, we can do better. HK was taken care of, it’s just another Chinese city now. One country, one system.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

@John Hjorth I wasn’t responding to you John. We posted at the same time. Sorry. My response was to change, who is suggesting we let Putin off the hook because he has nukes…..

 

and I think @Spekulatiusis completely right. Putin is afraid of western democracy not an aggressive Ukraine that will attack him..

[no_free_lunch]

Not much choice but to stand up to our enemies.  If we don't, they simply get strong and emboldened.  We are sending arms to a different country to defend itself, I don't see how that is aggression or provoking a war.  Russia should be concerned too and all these arguments against nuclear war apply to them as well.

[John Hjorth]

Today, I've gone back, reading this topic meticulously, including provided links in posts, of all posts after tuesday this week.

 

I have to say It's great to have other CoBF members taking the time and energy beating the crap out of my personal cognitive biases, thank you. All I can say further is I hope this helps. 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Here, it's hot, and the sun is shining from a clear blue sky! Stay cool! 

Edited June 18, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

12 hours ago, Haryana said:

 

Use of the term "third world countries" is quite objectionable.

This term could appear derogatory* to anyone from those places.

 

*https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/third-world.asp

 

Sorry, I had no idea about the derogatory meaning. I literally learned this terminology at school, which was in the 70’s, but this was used way longer. Will use developing nations term henceforth.

 

Sorry if I offended anyone.

[cubsfan]

I don’t know, but I have such a simple view of this situation.

 

Do you want a world where everyone has nukes? Or do you want a world where a bulk of Western favoring democracies/allies can band together under some type of umbrella protection to protect themselves against expansionist/aggressors nations?

 

Whether you call it NATO or a far East coalition against China/North Korea- the point is to have some level of strength and true WILLINGNESS to stop unchecked aggression in its tracks. You may think that is warmongering lead by the United States. I disagree. What’s your alternative is what I’d ask you? What chance do we really have for some level of world peace without such a policy???

 

And I respect the argument that this can’t apply to everyone and is unfair. You have those awful conflicts in places like Rawanda and Yugoslavia.

It seems tremendously unfair.

 

As an American, I hate the idea that so much of our GDP goes to Europe and Asia for protection. But what alternative do we really have? Become isolationists again, like we did with Japan pre-WWII? Become appeasers again like Britain did with Germany? 

We all know how that ended..

 

There’s a reason the first George Bush took the hammer to Sadaam when he invaded Kuwait. You can say it was about oil or whatever. It was about stopping aggression in its tracks and protecting the neighbors in the area. It’s about stopping something that may lead to something much, much larger. Take the pain now, before it escalates. That’s exactly where we are now with Ukraine…well into the escalation of something that well MIGHT have had been stopped much earlier. The leaders that pass off the problem look like heroes because they kept the peace….temporarily…until you have a wider conflict…

 

That’s the kind of message that tells your allies or coalition members you mean business. For US citizens, it’s sucks to be in that position since it saps the country’s resources big time.

 

So I would ask: what’s a better alternative?

[John Hjorth]

Respect for a very good post of yours, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

We all have to pay up, to get this *thing* /*evil* to go away / disappear from the surface of the Earth.

 

Under the auspices of NATO, or whatever. It is about freedom, or the lack of it.

 

I have a personal friend, who has spent almost all his time , starting short after the war started, collecting [legally] funds for the support to Ukraine [millions of DKK], locally here in Odense [Kyiv is actually a friendship town of Odense, Denmark], and during the last cold period taking massive actions to gather and collect generators from everybody who was interested to contribute, taking care of all the logistics challenges related to getting those productive assets to Ukraine, too.

 

In short : Personally I can't see a better alternative.