Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

This is gold:

Transcript:

So when I tell them that in order to

understand Putin they shouldn't really

talk to experts from the foreign office.

They should go to a crime ridden area

to the local police station

where any Police Inspector would tell

them what a normal gangster is

like and how you deal with them

 

 

Edited October 15, 2022 by Spekulatius

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-keep-the-ukraine-conflict-from-going-nuclear-11665761260

 

The U.S. government should be communicating, quietly and often, to the Russian military not to follow any unhinged orders from Mr. Putin to use nuclear weapons. Anyone who orders nuclear use and anyone who implements such orders, they should be told, will be held accountable. Mr. Putin has brought a great disaster upon the Russian military, Russian elites and the Russian people. Washington should be reminding all Russians that a Ukrainian victory in this war won’t be an existential threat to Russia. It would be existential threat only to Vladimir Putin. Mr. Putin has surrounded himself with “yes men” who protect him and tell him what he wants to hear. But the cocoon of loyalty around him is beginning to crack, according to American intelligence sources. Nikita Khrushchev was overthrown in 1963 in part because he displayed such reckless decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis. When former NSC adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski was asked, “How come you failed to predict the ouster of Khrushchev?” he replied, “Tell me, if Khrushchev couldn’t predict his own ouster, how do you expect me to do so?” Analysts inside and outside the U.S. government can’t predict exactly when or how Mr. Putin will be overthrown from within. The future of Russia will be determined by the Russian people. But a Russia without Vladimir Putin must be our long-range hope, even if it is not our immediate expectation.

[UK]

https://www.ft.com/content/885865b1-2320-43c0-b41e-10c1d026202a

 

China has insisted it will stick to its strict zero-Covid policies, saying its extensive testing and quarantine apparatus is sufficient ahead of the 20th Communist party congress, which begins on Sunday.

 

On Thursday, leading epidemiologist Liang Wannian said there was “no timeline” for an exit from zero-Covid rules and earlier in the week the state-run People’s Daily newspaper ran a prominent defence of the strategy. Liang added that the country now had the capacity to test 1bn people in a single day. In Beijing and other major cities, including Shanghai, authorities have tightened measures ahead of the launch of the congress and residents need to test negative every few days to enter most buildings.

 

 

[Lazarus]

I find their zero covid policy mind boggling. 

[crs223]

12 minutes ago, Lazarus said:

I find their zero covid policy mind boggling. 

 

The latest episode of Odd Lots discusses this.  China doesn’t have an effective vaccine.  I think the estimate was 10 million would die if they just let COVID run its course.  Evidentially China is not willing to allow that many to die.  Another option is to buy the pfizer vaccine.  Apparently this too is unpalatable.

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

The latest episode of Odd Lots discusses this.  China doesn’t have an effective vaccine.  I think the estimate was 10 million would die if they just let COVID run its course.  Evidentially China is not willing to allow that many to die.  Another option is to buy the pfizer vaccine.  Apparently this too is unpalatable.

It’s not about results, it’s about ideology.

 

His speech at the Congress today sounds like much more of the same,  zero COVID-29, peacefully reunification  more common prosperity etc, more neo Maoism.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/15/china/china-party-congress-opening-day-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-hails-communist-partys-self-revolution-in-bid-to-extend-rule-11665894731?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

Sounds bearish for Chinese stocks, if you ask me.

 

[gary17]

41 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

It’s not about results, it’s about ideology.

 

His speech at the Congress today sounds like much more of the same,  zero COVID-29, peacefully reunification  more common prosperity etc, more neo Maoism.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/15/china/china-party-congress-opening-day-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-hails-communist-partys-self-revolution-in-bid-to-extend-rule-11665894731?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

Sounds bearish for Chinese stocks, if you ask me.

 

 

 i think we don't know if he is just saying that but policies will slightly shift after he's re-elected. i believe HK has losen the rules now.  

 if zero covid continues, however, it'd be a bit of a pain on inflation but long term may benefit the west as the world moves on to a new supply chain arrangement without china, not to mention slow-down in china due to capital & talent outflow .

 

 

[Spekulatius]

18 minutes ago, gary17 said:

 

 i think we don't know if he is just saying that but policies will slightly shift after he's re-elected. i believe HK has losen the rules now.  

 if zero covid continues, however, it'd be a bit of a pain on inflation but long term may benefit the west as the world moves on to a new supply chain arrangement without china, not to mention slow-down in china due to capital & talent outflow .

 

 

Hopefully not  COVID-29. Also, he was indicating the strong possibility of not so peaceful unification. I found the undertone of his speech very unsettling.

 

By the way, I think it was not an coincidence that the semiconductor restrictions were put in place just before the party Congress. I don’t expect a direct answer form China, but there will be an answer.

 

FWIW, the West is in the process of disconnecting security sensitive industries and supply chain from China. If a major international company does not have a plan in place to manage their supply chain without China within a couple of years, they are taking a major existential risk.

 

Really, it does not come much clearer than that. I am curious what companies like Apple are going to do, Producing 2M iPhones in India is not going to do it.

 

As for what he says and what he does I think Autocrats tend to do what they say. That’s basically the reason they exist and how they rule.

Edited October 16, 2022 by Spekulatius

[gary17]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Hopefully not  COVID-29. Also, he was indicating the strong possibility of not so peaceful unification. I found the undertone of his speech very unsettling.

 

By the way, I think it was not an coincidence that the semiconductor restrictions were put in place just before the party Congress. I don’t expect a direct answer form China, but there will be an answer.

 

FWIW, the West is in the process of disconnecting security sensitive industries and supply chain from China. If a major international company does not have a plan in place to manage their supply chain without China within a couple of years, they are taking a major existential risk.

 

Really, it does not come much clearer than that. I am curious what companies like Apple are going to do, Producing 2M iPhones in India is not going to do it.

 

As for what he says and what he does I think Autocrats tend to do what they say. That’s basically the reason they exist and how they rule.

 

Perhaps that is his goal, just like Putin must do something about Ukraine.  these are world leaders have 'mid-life' crisis... they've got the money, the power, and the only thing worth doing with their remaining time is leaving a mark in history.

 

scary for sure.  

 

it's very interesting china uses the word one china 'principle' and the US has always said they have a one china 'policy'.  principle & policy are not the same lol.

 

i just wish these crazy people would just calm down - the world enjoyed so much peace since world war 2.  it's very scary to think of possible conflict over taiwan, and how neighbouring asian countries, japan, korea, north korea, may all kinda get drag into it.  won' be good for stocks.

[Spekulatius]

From the SCMP:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3196167/incomparable-glory-awaits-china-world-stage-xi-jinping-tells?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3196167

 

”incomparable glory” uhh Ooh….

[Spekulatius]

Imagine going to a Costco in China Wednesday and a Thursday at the same Costco someone tests positive. Now everyone who works or visited the Costco (as a customer) within 2 days before an after the positive case needs to quarantine. That’s a story I was told from an manager  whose company does business (with employees)  in China this weekend over a beer. This is zero COVID-19 policy in China in practice.

[no_free_lunch]

Some info on Russia's links to Nazism, in particular via the Russian mercenary group Wagner.  For those who are not familiar, Wagner is a mercenary unit that alledgedly reports directly to Putin.  I view it as somewhat analagous to Putin's brown shirts.  In Ukraine, where Russia is advancing (currently Bakhmut) it is usually Wagner that is involved.

 

Quote

Nazi symbols are popular among the mercenaries; in Ukraine in April, a leader of Task Force Rusich, a Wagner subsidiary, was videotaped wearing the Valknot and Tatenkoph of the 3rd SS Panzer Division. Wagner itself is named after the notoriously antisemitic German composer, whose operas famously made Hitler weep. According to the group’s origin story, a former Spetsnaz (Soviet special forces) soldier named Dmitry Utkin used “Wagner” as his callsign while fighting in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Utkin, who many consider Wagner’s operational commander, has tattoos of Nazi “SS” epaulets along his collar bones. Many founding members of Wagner also belong to the ultra-nationalist and white supremacist group known as the Russian Imperial Movement, which the U.S. State Department has declared a terrorist organization.

 

https://time.com/6180611/white-power-mercenaries-fighting-the-lost-cause/

 

Edited October 16, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

19 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Some info on Russia's links to Nazism, in particular via the Russian mercenary group Wagner.  For those who are not familiar, Wagner is a mercenary unit that alledgedly reports directly to Putin.  I view it as somewhat analagous to Putin's brown shirts.  In Ukraine, where Russia is advancing (currently Bakhmut) it is usually Wagner that is involved.

 

 

https://time.com/6180611/white-power-mercenaries-fighting-the-lost-cause/

 

I think the Wagner group model themselves after the Totenkopf (skull) SS. SS was basically Hitler Guard. Some of them were elite army divisions (including tanks) others were guarding the Konzentrationcamps like Dachau. Similar to SS being Hitler’s guard, the Wagner units are separate from the regular army and run as a mercenary group directed by Putin. 

Edited October 16, 2022 by Spekulatius

[maplevalue]

Does anyone know where one can read the entirety of Xi's speech in English?

[plato1976]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Imagine going to a Costco in China Wednesday and a Thursday at the same Costco someone tests positive. Now everyone who works or visited the Costco (as a customer) within 2 days before an after the positive case needs to quarantine. That’s a story I was told from an manager  whose company does business (with employees)  in China this weekend over a beer. This is zero COVID-19 policy in China in practice.

I want to point out that it's not the quarantine at home as we understand. It's a quarantine that happens at specified buildings (transported by the government bus). First hand information as I can see from my wechat groups (relatives living in china broadcasting real time progress. ) 

[Spekulatius]

50 minutes ago, maplevalue said:

Does anyone know where one can read the entirety of Xi's speech in English?

This seems it:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Full-text-of-Xi-Jinping-s-speech-on-the-CCP-s-100th-anniversary

[no_free_lunch]

I agree, SS is a much more accurate comp for the Wagner group.

 

To support the claim of their link to the Kremlin, here is Wagner's tweet "are you ready".  They put this vague threat out amongst the massive Russian force build-up, heightened tensions and warnings of an invasion from NATO.  In fact it was tweeted out about 12 hours before the Ukraine war started.  They literally front ran the invasion.  In retrospect it was clearly a taunt.  What is the point of being evil if you can't flaunt it right?

 

 

Edited October 17, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

@UK

 

Khuruschev and Putin have a completely different verticals of power. The former might have schemed his way to the position of leadership like a worm, after the hardliners like Beria were made disappear but he largely worked to de-construct the myth of Stalin and with it his own vertical of power. 
 

 

Putin is the complete reverse as he has consolidated power. Now that being said I find western media full of references of “unhinged Putin” and “hoping for a palace coup”. Clearly, sabre rattling aside he has not gone up the escalation ladder by moving nuclear warheads out of storage for everyone to see. In fact, the danger is far less than 7 months ago IMO, notwithstanding their losses. To me that is a sign of rational actor who can do the math. A clearly misinformed and somewhat out of touch … but a rational actor.
 

now of all folks wishing of a palace coup etc, who has actually done the deep dive to understand the consequences of another soul taking power who is even worse than him. 
 

In Stalin case, his death meant the end of the Korean War, but the Cold War raged on and the fact his successors had a softer touch was a blessing. I would not expect this in today’ Russia. 
 

in Putin case, right now he gets the media attention as he is the ultimate authority, but who are the hardcore nationalists behind him that are actually saying that Russia is taking it too easy on Ukraine and should go much harder at it. (Infrastructure etc)

[UK]

13 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

@UK

 

Khuruschev and Putin have a completely different verticals of power. The former might have schemed his way to the position of leadership like a worm, after the hardliners like Beria were made disappear but he largely worked to de-construct the myth of Stalin and with it his own vertical of power. 
 

 

Putin is the complete reverse as he has consolidated power. Now that being said I find western media full of references of “unhinged Putin” and “hoping for a palace coup”. Clearly, sabre rattling aside he has not gone up the escalation ladder by moving nuclear warheads out of storage for everyone to see. In fact, the danger is far less than 7 months ago IMO, notwithstanding their losses. To me that is a sign of rational actor who can do the math. A clearly misinformed and somewhat out of touch … but a rational actor.
 

now of all folks wishing of a palace coup etc, who has actually done the deep dive to understand the consequences of another soul taking power who is even worse than him. 
 

In Stalin case, his death meant the end of the Korean War, but the Cold War raged on and the fact his successors had a softer touch was a blessing. I would not expect this in today’ Russia. 
 

in Putin case, right now he gets the media attention as he is the ultimate authority, but who are the hardcore nationalists behind him that are actually saying that Russia is taking it too easy on Ukraine and should go much harder at it. (Infrastructure etc)

 

Thanks. Yes, unfortunatelly I mostly agree with your sombre view. Probably just wishfull thinking on my part.

 

 

Edited October 17, 2022 by UK

[Xerxes]

I have not done any research but I would say (as an uninformed person) that Wagner Group reminds me more of Blackwater than SS Waffen. 
 

SS Waffen wasn’t created as a commercial entity to privatize war.

 

Both Blackwater and Wagner Group were.

 

SS Waffen was an instrument of the Party, and while may have started as Hitler’ bodyguards, it’s combat division worked side by side with Wehrmacht.   
 

There was a video interview, I saw years back where one of the heads of Blackwater was stupid enough to compare his company to the East India Company taking on the savages. The sheer cluelessness and arrogance of these people was too much for me. 

[Luke]

12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This seems it:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Full-text-of-Xi-Jinping-s-speech-on-the-CCP-s-100th-anniversary

What do you think will happen for chinese stocks after a taiwan invasion? Will the stock market be cut off as with russia? Even if we hold share in HK? I am thinking of leaving my china positions and buying some tsm  If i loose the total value anyways if the invasion happens id rather hold tsm than alibaba currently...

[Spekulatius]

56 minutes ago, Luca said:

What do you think will happen for chinese stocks after a taiwan invasion? Will the stock market be cut off as with russia? Even if we hold share in HK? I am thinking of leaving my china positions and buying some tsm  If i loose the total value anyways if the invasion happens id rather hold tsm than alibaba currently...

Yes, i think there is a significant probability that the financial markets between of China HK will be cut of from the western financial system. That means that you may not be able to have access to your HK or chinese shares any more.

 

The consequences of such an invasion would be much more severe than with the Ukraine war, due to the relative size of the Chinese economy vs the Russian economy.

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes, i think there is a significant probability that the financial markets between of China HK will be cut of from the western financial system. That means that you may not be able to have access to your HK or chinese shares any more.

 

The consequences of such an invasion would be much more severe than with the Ukraine war, due to the relative size of the Chinese economy vs the Russian economy.

I see it like that aswell.

[Pelagic]

This is one of the clearest videos of what an operation in this war looks like that I've seen. And also reinforces just how useful consumer grade drones can be on the modern battlefield.

 

You can turn on English subtitles for a decent translation.

 

 

[Guest]

Slightly off topic but I was surprised and wanted to share. VWO (emerging markets ETF) is down over the past 15 years. Man, I remember 2007 and emerging markets were lighting the world on fire. 15 years later...negative returns.