Political Posts

[nafregnum]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

Looking at Russian history one would have to agree with you. I was taught in university that what causes revolutions isn’t poverty or cruelty or terrible leadership. What causes revolutions are expectations and when they are not met. I wonder if enough Russians have had a taste of a better life that the coming economic depression creates the next impetus for change…

 

+1 for mental models

 

This is also in the book "Influence" by Robert Cialdini - the book that Munger loved so much he gifted it to all his grandkids, and gave the author 1 share of BRKA worth about $73,000 at the time if memory serves.  

 

An example from the book was specifically about Russia: 

 

“This pattern offers a valuable lesson for would-be rulers: When it comes to freedoms, it is more dangerous to have given for a while than never to have given at all. The problem for a government that seeks to improve the political and economic status of a traditionally oppressed group is that, in so doing, it establishes freedoms for the group where none existed before. And should these now established freedoms become less available, there will be an especially hot variety of hell to pay.

 

We can look to much more recent events in the former Soviet Union for evidence that this basic rule still holds. After decades of repression, Mikhail Gorbachev began granting the Soviet populace new liberties, privileges, and choices via the twin policies of glasnost and perestroika. Alarmed by the direction their nation was taking, a small group of government, military, and KGB officials staged a coup, placing Gorbachev under house arrest and announcing on August 19, 1991, that they had assumed power and were moving to reinstate the old order. Most of the world imagined that the Soviet people, known for their characteristic acquiescence to subjugation, would passively yield as they had always 

done. Time magazine editor Lance Morrow described his own reaction similarly: "At first the coup seemed to confirm the norm. The news administered a dark shock, followed immediately by a depressed sense of resignation: of course, of course, the Russians must revert to their essential selves, to their own history. Gorbachev and glasnost were an aberration; now we are back to fatal normality."

 

But these were not to be normal times. For one thing, Gorbachev had not governed in the tradition of the czars or Stalin or any of the line of oppressive postwar rulers who had not allowed even a breath of freedom to the masses. He had ceded them certain rights and choices. And when these now-established freedoms were threatened, the people lashed out the way a dog would if someone tried taking a fresh bone from its mouth. Within hours of the junta's announcement, thousands were in the streets, erecting barricades, confronting armed troops, surrounding tanks, and defying curfews. 

 

The uprising was so swift, so massive, so unitary in its opposition to any retreat from the gains of glasnost that after only three riotous days, the astonished officials relented, surrendering their power and pleading for mercy from President Gorbachev. Had they been students of history—or of psychology—the failed plotters would not have been so surprised by the tidal wave of popular resistance that swallowed their coup. From the vantage point of either discipline, they could have learned an invariant lesson: Freedoms once granted will not be relinquished without a fight.”

 

- Excerpt From: Robert B. Cialdini. “Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion.” 

[nafregnum]

My hope for end-game is that they get to a cease fire before April.  I can't predict much, but these two articles gave me some hope.

 

This one made me want to go eat at McDonalds.  I think they're doing a class-act kind of thing to not leave all those 62k workers high and dry.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/mcdonalds-closing-restaurants-russia-will-keep-paying-62k-workers-1686052

 

This one gave me hope that they achieve a negotiated peace before the death count goes from under 10k to over 100k.  

 

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-700677

 

And this one's for Putin and all other Masters of War.  (IMO the best Bob Dylan cover ever)

 

 

[ValueArb]

9 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

What's so wrong about being a neutral country, prospering from trade agreements in both directions? It will take a long time to heal the wounds of this war though.

 

But what's the alternative? Russia biting off the eastern part of the country, including Kiev/Kyiv, a demilitarized zone and border like North/South Korea?

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think this map is innacurate in that it lists Russias "areas of control" as large filled in areas when in many cases they are really spider webs of controlled roads where the Russians don't dare stray too far from.

[ValueArb]

3 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

The assumption in everyones thinking here is that this 'invasion' is going to go on for a long time. I dont think it will by the time extreme extreme sanction pain begins to flow through to the Russian economy i predict the war will be for all intensive purposes over.

 

Given this thread is called "end game". I'll posit my end game again which is becoming more and more likely IMO.

 

Russia has already moved to what I indicated they would which is aerial bombardment, Russian troops were used simply to begin the invasion and precipitate the flee'ing of civilians from key Ukrainian cities...this is not an occupying force (number of Russian troops is too small for that)....Ukraine's main cities will be destroyed in the next couple of weeks with shelling, missiles etc.

 

Once enough damage is inflicted such that Ukraine will be crippled for a decade, Putin will then begin 'de-escalation talks' but really they will be an exercise in diplomacy theatre whereby Putin dismantles the sanctions regime in exchange for various de-escalation milestones he was planning to do anyway. The Western media & politicians of course will claim its because of the Ukrainian army with western equipment being so formidable or military incompetence on the part of Russia or indeed domestic political issues related to sanctions. The EU/NATO/USA will declare it as victory of Western solidarity, democracy & freedom in the face of a tyrant dictator. Whatever in Putin's mind, he controls his domestic media & he'll tell them that Russia achieved its aim of restoring Ukrainian neutrality and on the balance of probabilities he'll be right & the West deluded.

 

 

I think your posts focus too much on what Putin wants to do and what the Russians actually have capabilities to do. 

 

They can't supply their troops indefinitely. They can't stop drone attacks on their supply lines. They can't protect their armored vehicles from the tens of thousands anti-tank weapons. They can't control the air-space. They have run low on precision guided munitions so they have to use dumb bombs on low level attacks, where they are Stinger bait. Rebuilding their stocks was going to be extremely difficult with their small economy, with sanctions it's going to be much harder.

 

So it's unclear whether they can bombard Ukrainian cities heavily for long, and it seems pretty clear even if they do the Ukrainians aren't surrendering. Remember Stalingrad?

 

They can never control even eastern Ukraine with only 150,000 troops. They need to start mass mobilization to even have a chance. They have to be able to do that without inflaming the population. They'll have to hide the constant losses to guerrilla attacks from their own population for same reason.

 

The Ukraine can fight this war for a long, long time. They have better supply lines, and are getting more advanced weapons than Russia. If Russia tries to enter Kyiv it will be a death trap to their tanks and armored vehicles. If you know how, you can kill a Russian tank with a roll of wire, a rifle and a molotov cocktail, and many Ukrainians have been trained how. If Russia takes Kyiv they'll just move the seat of government and keep their snipers, drones, IEDs rocking on.

 

Meanwhile most of Russias commercial airline fleet will stop flying by end of the month for lack of maintenance and parts. A good number of businesses will be shut down for lack of foreign parts, putting angry unemployed workers on the street. Soon the jails will be full of protesters and police will be scrambling for places to put new ones. At that point the risk of protesting drops to near zero, and the crowds grow.

 

 Putins cronies know their yachts, planes, Italian villas are lost forever as long as he's in power, they also know their graft were a big part of the hollowing out of Russias military capabilities. The military knows their troops are just meat for the grinder as long as he's in power, and that they are going to get the blame for the Ukrainian debacle. One of these groups is going to attempt to take out perceived enemies soon. 

 

One Russia retreats, there will be a new Marshall plan with the EU, Britain and the US to rebuild the Ukraine. They'll use seized Russian capital reserves to fund it. The Ukraine will have a stronger economy than Russia for decades to come.

Edited March 9, 2022 by ValueArb

[cubsfan]

^^^ That will be a pretty awesome scenario should it play out.

[Viking]

33 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

I think your posts focus too much on what Putin wants to do and what the Russians actually have capabilities to do. 

 

They can't supply their troops indefinitely. They can't stop drone attacks on their supply lines. They can't protect their armored vehicles from the tens of thousands anti-tank weapons. They can't control the air-space. They have run low on precision guided munitions so they have to use dumb bombs on low level attacks, where they are Stinger bait. Rebuilding their stocks was going to be extremely difficult with their small economy, with sanctions it's going to be much harder.

 

So it's unclear whether they can bombard Ukrainian cities heavily for long, and it seems pretty clear even if they do the Ukrainians aren't surrendering. Remember Stalingrad?

 

They can never control even eastern Ukraine with only 150,000 troops. They need to start mass mobilization to even have a chance. They have to be able to do that without inflaming the population. They'll have to hide the constant losses to guerrilla attacks from their own population for same reason.

 

The Ukraine can fight this war for a long, long time. They have better supply lines, and are getting more advanced weapons than Russia. If Russia tries to enter Kyiv it will be a death trap to their tanks and armored vehicles. If you know how, you can kill a Russian tank with a roll of wire, a rifle and a molotove cocktail, and many Ukrainians have been trained how. If Russia takes Kyiv they'll just move the seat of government and keep their snipers, drones, IEDs rocking on.

 

Meanwhile most of Russias commercial airline fleet will stop flying by end of the month for lack of maintenance and parts. A good number of businesses will be shut down for lack of foreign parts, putting angry unemployed workers on the street. Soon the jails will be full of protesters and police will be scrambling for places to put new ones. At that point the risk of protesting drops to near zero, and the crowds grow.

 

 Putins cronies know their yachts, planes, Italian villas are lost forever as long as he's in power, they also know their graft were a big part of the hollowing out of Russias military capabilities. The military knows their troops are just meat for the grinder as long as he's in power, and that they are going to get the blame for the Ukrainian debacle. One of these groups is going to attempt to take out perceived enemies soon. 

i think you nailed it. What does Ukraine want? They are on the verge of DEFEATING Russia. Ukraine is ALREADY destroyed and bombed out. People think Putin is going to DICTATE TERMS? Especially when everyone (well most everyone) in the world with an internet connection and a working brain can see he is a lying POS. Ukraine would be stupid to give in to Putin - HE WILL BE BACK AND THEY KNOW IT. 

 

My read is Putin is delusional. And the noose is closing (militarily in Ukraine and economically in Russia). So i expect this war will get worse, not better. And last longer than people think. Putin’s only out is to call for a cease fire and lie about his intentions (which will be eagerly gobbled up by a few on this board). And he will use the cease fire to rest and re-arm his troops. And then he will return to Ukraine to finish the job. THE SAME PLAYBOOK AS CHECHNYA.
 

There is no way Ukraine is going to put their head back in the mouth of a lion once they get it out. They aren’t stupid. 
—————

The implications from an investing perspective? Markets are WAY TO DISNEY - still. I expect things to get much worse. There is also a very good chance Putin expands the war to trap/draw NATO in. The man will be getting increasingly desperate. I am back up to 40% cash (rallies like today are a wonderful opportunity to lock in gains). So i can take advantage of the volatility i expect will continue for months. 
—————

There is also the chance that Putin exits Ukraine in the coming weeks. I think this is the scenario markets are currently discounting. I don’t see it.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Viking

[Gregmal]

Just remember, a week ago we were on the verge of a nuclear war and Putin was going to recreate the USSR....

 

People, this is why markets can behave irrationally LOL 

 

Now. Going forward, who are we going to listen to? The people who bring us one sided, agenda driven stories, the people who brought us the "polls" for 2016, 2018, and 2020, the people who have scandal and lawsuit one after another over the accuracy of their reporting and the disclosure of their conflicts.....or.....

 

Often times game theory is the easiest exercise and you only need half a brain to apply it. 

[Viking]

“Who are we going to listen to?” Well, here is a suggestion: we could learn to think for ourselves. You know… do that Stanley Druckenmiller thing… be inquisitive. Be open minded.
 

Lot’s of great sources of information out there. My favourite right now is a military analyst named Micheal Kofman (look him up on YouTube).

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Viking

[Gregmal]

I think if you're still trying to form a picture on this you missed the move. But what do I know?

[Gregmal]

The media couldn't hide a "demand list". Monday seemed to be the bottom. Tuesday people started realizing it. Today we rally. Coincidence. Couple the demand list with the repeated logic that NATO/US/EU repeatedly, over the past decade kept pushing Ukraine even though Russia has warned it was viewed as a national security risk(something a few folks here nailed) and the likely ultimate result of a destroying and/or conquered Ukraine(either accomplishes the 3 demands) and there you have it. Nothing that should be dragging down the majority of US equities. Energy prices will be temporarily relieved thanks to the good guys running democracies in Venezuela and Iran. Funny how it all works right?

Edited March 9, 2022 by Gregmal

[Gregmal]

I mean Russia still has like 5,000 nukes. What changed in the last 48 hours? It became too hard to keep peddling the sensationalism and BS narratives and it became clear that for better or worse once Ukraine was neutralized that chances are this no longer escalates. And that Russia is already half way home in destroying the same place, the EU/US won't do a damn thing, and in a fucked up way, everyone is happy except the Ukrainians who trusted the US/EU. 

[muscleman]

6 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Lol sounds about right. Xi playing chess while Brandon begs. Yup. 

 

And when Brendon finally decides to ban Russia oil imports into the US, he turns to Iran to buy oil..... What a brilliant leader. 

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, muscleman said:

 

And when Brendon finally decides to ban Russia oil imports into the US, he turns to Iran to buy oil..... What a brilliant leader. 

Obviously. He doesnt want to deal with unstable dictators. Thats what the media told me.

 

Just took a slight moment to do a narrative shift on Iran!

[Viking]

Europe’s reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a BIG surprise to me. First, the solidarity in the EU right now is nuts - getting 27 diverse nations to ALL agree on anything is pretty much impossible. Even the Swiss are involved. This is highly instructive: they are unified like never before on the threat Putin and Russia pose today. Second, follow the money to understand conviction level. Well Europe, in decoupling from Russia’s economy, will likely be in a severe technical recession shortly. And they know it. These 27 nations are prepared to pay a massive price TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AND THEIR CHILDREN FROM PUTIN AND RUSSIA. This is also highly instructive about how Europe perceives the risk of Putin and Russia. What is happening in Europe today is unprecedented in modern history. Folks, we are in unchartered territory.
—————

So are markets ready for a likely technical recession in Europe in the coming months? Are markets ready for 10% inflation in the US in the coming months? My guess is no. 
 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Viking

[Gregmal]

They've abandoned Ukraine but sent over some cash and some weapons. What a hell of a response. LOL

[Gregmal]

The reaction to Poland offering some old fighter jets is all one needs to see to understand the situation. “Oh no, no, no you don’t. That’ll trigger a conflict and we would likely get dragged in! No!”…..far cry from the “we banded together and showed Russia who’s boss!” Narrative. 
 

In North America we re peddling our propaganda and some are buying it as always. In Russia they’re pushing their propaganda, and some are probably buying it too. China is loving it. And in Ukraine their lives and country are destroyed. This is what happens when a peon country flirts with the xenophobic big boys.

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

They've abandoned Ukraine but sent over some cash and some weapons. What a hell of a response. LOL

Europe is taking unprecedented actions to support Ukraine. You might want to expand your sources. Quick Google search and you should be on your way. Not sure if you are aware but Ukraine is NOT part of NATO. 
 

Since the war started, what else is Europe not doing that it could do? Please be specific. (My prediction is you won’t answer my question and instead will talk about fake news, what a swell and misunderstood guy Putin is and some Brandon guy…)

[muscleman]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Obviously. He doesnt want to deal with unstable dictators. Thats what the media told me.

 

Just took a slight moment to do a narrative shift on Iran!

 

The media has become a propoganda machine for Brandon. Whatever he did has to be justified.

[Viking]

18 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The reaction to Poland offering some old fighter jets is all one needs to see to understand the situation. “Oh no, no, no you don’t. That’ll trigger a conflict and we would likely get dragged in! No!”…..far cry from the “we banded together and showed Russia who’s boss!” Narrative. 
 

In North America we re peddling our propaganda and some are buying it as always. In Russia they’re pushing their propaganda, and some are probably buying it too. China is loving it. And in Ukraine their lives and country are destroyed. This is what happens when a peon country flirts with the xenophobic big boys.

OK, i’ll bite… if Poland flies the jets into Germany and then the US flies them into Ukraine (which i think was the proposal) would that not give Putin the ability to ‘claim’ that NATO was now directly involved? And give Putin carte blanche to respond how he saw fit? 
 

Are you suggesting NATO should get involved? That “we banded together and showed Russia who’s boss!” thing you mentioned above?

 

i think it is smart for NATO to be very careful… Putin is a snake and will twist anything he is given.

[changegonnacome]

14 minutes ago, Viking said:

Europe is taking unprecedented actions to support Ukraine. You might want to expand your sources. Quick Google search and you should be on your way. Not sure if you are aware but Ukraine is NOT part of NATO. 

 

Sorry you posted while i was writing the below - Europe's response to Ukraine should not be seen in the context of supporting Ukraine.....it should be seen in the context of blind self interest.......if they cared about Ukraine they'd go fight there......they aren't, not a drop of blood has been spilt by the EU27, because they don't really care............what they care about is the even dim prospect that Putin would continue on past Ukraine into Poland etc. THIS is what Europe is reacting to and why the solidarity was found to come together.

 

 

 1 hour ago, Viking said:

Europe’s reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a BIG surprise to me. First, the solidarity in the EU right now is nuts - getting 27 diverse nations to ALL agree on anything is pretty much impossible. Even the Swiss are involved. This is highly instructive: they are unified like never before on the threat Putin and Russia pose today.

 

Yep its amazing when a country/bloc feels an existential threat isn't how they'll react, so I'm not that amazed on the solidarity of the Europeans????Existential threats get reactions....Cuban Missle crisis?........& I dunno like NATO/EU/USA encroaching into Ukraine set off existential threat thoughts in Russia.....well mind fuck guys.....Putin just did to the Europeans/NATO/USA what they had been doing to him for the last 10 years......Putin/Russia encroached  into Ukraine and made it not neutral and not a buffer state.....and the West literally shit its pants and managed to rally together on sanctions etc................so...............how does everybody stop wearing adult diapers in the West and in Russia?............well Ukraine goes back to being a buffer state again and everybody behind closed doors agrees it was madness to ever get into a tangle ever again over Ukraine. 

Edited March 10, 2022 by changegonnacome
Just made one post

[Viking]

4 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Putin just did to the Europeans/NATO/USA what they had been doing to him for the last 10 years......

Clearly i am an idiot. I missed that war (or was it more than one?). Please answer:
1.) What country did Europeans/NATO/USA invade in the last 10 years?

2.) How long did the war last?
3.) How many people were killed by the Europeans/NATO/USA?

4.) How many soldiers did the Europeans/NATO/USA lose?

5.) What was the economic cost to the country that was invaded?

6.) What was the international communities response?

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, Viking said:

Ukraine is NOT part of NATO.

Interesting. You don’t think hanging that carrot to trigger aggression had anything to do with this whole thing? You’re boasting that these politicians are what? Talking about getting energy elsewhere? Self interest I’d say? You say what? Sending big bad Vlad a message? Definitely not standing with Ukraine. None are standing behind Ukraine even as Zaleski begs them yet the media tells you otherwise and you believe them?

 

You say Europe is taking unprecedented action, even though you offer few real specifics and those you cite have very little to do with actually helping Ukraine, but then ask me to Google things?

 

Dont know what to tell you Viking. As others have pointed out, thinking for yourself involves criticism from folks who tout the headline narratives. Differing opinions are not welcomed, sure. You talk about thinking for yourself but have repeatedly since I’ve been a member here fallen victim to swallowing headline narrative and agenda inspired rhetoric. The polls in 2016 and again last cycle. Trump/Russia. You were up in arms several times about Russian interference in the US elections because of tweets but when confronted about what the US did in Ukraine asked “where were the tanks”!
 

Somehow “we won and Putin is fucked” is all you get out of this which given the backdrop(Xenophobia towards Russia) isn’t surprising. If you want detail go back through all of this. Weird how it’s playing out very different from what was brandished the last few weeks. Where are the nukes? Who’s next up for the USSR conquest? Oh no, now it’s that Putin is stupid and all of Russia military is crumbling because they suck, that’s the prevailing MSM portrayal and not surprisingly, your perspective as well…coincidence? Weird.

 

Or maybe Russia finally drew a line in the sand and war broke out. Their goal was….exactly consistent with what they’ve repeatedly stated for almost 2 decades and in line with the release on Monday? US/EU/NATO fuck off in Ukraine or we ll take action.  Nah, too farfetched. Market reads that and realizes it’s been duped again? Another weird coincidence. Or I guess you think Monday around the same release they got wind that some Russian military tanks were too poorly engineered and things would turn out differently than they thought 2 weeks ago?
 

but sure, let’s talk about thinking for oneself as you lazily revert to pigeon holing the stance I’ve taken and described it, just the way the MSM has taught its disciples, as “Putin is a swell guy”. LOL it’s almost as if the responses and interpretations are from the textbook. And then on top like you’ve done before when called out will say I’m “personally attacking” even though making the previous assertions doesn’t qualify….it’s all so strange. 
 

also, cardboard still reads some of the stuff here. He s been on point with the markets lately to a crazy degree. He wanted me to ask how you took profits when you’re so heavily in cash and Fairfax is lower than the price you paid for it a couple days ago? Ok that’s in gest but I laughed when he emailed me about it. 

 

[Gregmal]

20 minutes ago, Viking said:

Putin is a snake and will twist anything he is given.

Interesting. Again. This seems so….consistent in all your stuff, and so inspired by…..can’t put my finger on it. MSM inspired?

 

and of course, if I do what we all “say” we aspire to do, “think for ourselves”, I must think Putin is a “swell guy”. No other in between I guess. He can’t possibly be an old school dictator who’s rationally telling foreign meddlers to get the fuck out of his backyard. Nope. Gotta be something else. Let me search around CNN or Wapo for a bit and I’ll get back to you on what that something else is.

 

cheers

[changegonnacome]

I think you missed my earlier point @Viking.......which was to point out that the EU27's reaction to this is not surprising at all, you seem impressed & surprised by the coordination & solidarity.......and I'm simply explaining the fact that when a buffer state like Ukraine that sits between two opposing factions (the West & Russia) becomes not a buffer state.......which by the way can happen either through MILITARY intervention or POLITICAL intervention......one faction on either side shits its pants.......so i just neatly explained two things......Why Russia Invaded Ukraine while ALSO explaining the EU27's solidarity that your surprised by and reading hell of alot into without considering the obvious which is the EU/NATO feels threatened ITSELF by Ukraine not being the buffer they thought it was. The EU/NATO couldn't give a shit about Ukraine, if they did they would be there fighting right now.

Edited March 10, 2022 by changegonnacome

[nsx5200]

21 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Gimme a break. The Palestinians don't leave Israel because it's the safest and best place to live 

precisely BECAUSE the Israeli's are in charge. You think they want to live in the hell hole West Bank, Jordan,

Gaza or Lebanon with the criminals terrorist Fatah, Hezbollah or Hamas in charge? Really?

 

The displaced Palestinians have been offered their own homeland AND peace 3X since 1999 - and of course

the criminals terrorist WILL NOT ALLOW IT. Those are the facts - and you can't change them with this 

stupid "narrative" bullshit.  The only "peace" that the Iranian backed criminals will accept is for Israel

to be wiped off the map.

 

The Palestinians can have peace, prosperity , jobs and safety IF they just stop killing people. PERIOD.

Seems that what the term "civilization" actually means.

I remember having a mock debate on this back in high school decades ago.  Back then both sides more or less came to the conclusion that Israel invaded and took over West Bank territories without any real good reason.  All the safety and other reasonings were pretty much not really significant.  At the end of the day, Israel just wanted more land.  Why?  Couldn’t explain it then, still can’t explain it today.  The closest thing I can think of is some ‘divine’ prophecy about some promised land leading to entitlement complex, which I think is what Putin is suffering from right now.  Over the decades of accumulating casual readings, my impression is that they are treating the Palestinians as second class citizens, if at that, and continuing to take over land while asking why the Palestinians are so angry.  In a way, it reminds me of the Angry Bird game…. In a very sad way.

 

I guess the short summary is that we see countries suffering from the Karen syndrome as well.  On a country-wide scale.

 

It makes me wonder.  Does having more land really mean a country is great?  We see countries with relatively small land area and natural resources accomplish great stuff like UK, Japan, Singapore, etc.   Doesn’t it show that to make a country great, it does not take land, but the quality of the people/government?

 

I find it amusing that great country have problems trying to keep people out where bad countries have issues keeping people in.  Use that yard stick to measure Russian in regards to what it is trying to do with the Ukrainian refugees.

 

The US immigration problem is a good problem to have compared to the alternative.