Have We Hit The Top?

[Luke]

22 minutes ago, Sweet said:

BAC is down 10% on IB, wonder if that is a mistake on IB or real, can’t see it anywhere else.

 

Edit:

 

AMZN down 10% too

META down 10%
GOOG down 10%

ABNB down 10%

TSLA down 8%

UBER down 12%

Nasdaq 100 down 6%

 

Most surprising of all, C only down 3% lol.

 

 

Funny how WSB is scared while these stocks still have run up hundreds of percentages last year  

 

Really a nothing burger and a correction that is more than deserved. Japan on the other hand was already cheap and looks more interesting now. 

[Sweet]

3 minutes ago, Luke said:

Funny how WSB is scared while these stocks still have run up hundreds of percentages last year  

 

Really a nothing burger and a correction that is more than deserved. Japan on the other hand was already cheap and looks more interesting now. 

Agree.  I think the most surprising is BAC, not sure why it is down 10%.  I would have though rate cuts incoming would have been good for BAC giving their unrealised losses.

[aws]

Just now, Sweet said:

Agree.  I think the most surprising is BAC, not sure why it is down 10%.  I would have though rate cuts incoming would have been good for BAC giving their unrealised losses.

 

You can't trust most overnight quotes unless you see a bid and ask around that price. Someone might have sold 100 shares and that's the only print. I checked and the bid/ask was 34.00/39.00 on BAC, so you could not buy it down 10%

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, aws said:

 

You can't trust most overnight quotes unless you see a bid and ask around that price. Someone might have sold 100 shares and that's the only print. I checked and the bid/ask was 34.00/39.00 on BAC, so you could not buy it down 10%

I know, although the bid and ask on IB where at that price.  I don’t see it staying at that level after open.

[UK]

9 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Agree.  I think the most surprising is BAC, not sure why it is down 10%.  I would have though rate cuts incoming would have been good for BAC giving their unrealised losses.

 

I see lot of noise and crazy movements even where market is open, BRK was -10 in Germany, perhaps algorithms are trading a lot:)

 

Edited August 5, 2024 by UK

[Charlie]

11 hours ago, UK said:

I see lot of noise and crazy movements even where market is open, BRK was -10 in Germany, perhaps algorithms are trading a lot:)

 

I saw this, too and was tempted to buy, but unfortunately did not. 

[Castanza]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

Most surprising of all, C only down 3% lol.

Don’t worry, there’s probably some reporter out there waiting to pull the lid off a crock of shit stewing away on the back burner at C. 

[Gregmal]

The banks are amazing. Nothing's really happened but in 3 days theyre like -20% LOL. 

[gfp]

Don't worry, y'all - Goolsbee's got your six

 

 

 

[Paarslaars]

30 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The banks are amazing. Nothing's really happened but in 3 days theyre like -20% LOL. 

Same with Alt managers...

[UK]

7 minutes ago, gfp said:

Don't worry, y'all - Goolsbee's got your six

 

 

 

 

I think at this pace they soon will have to try to fix, if not economy, than at least something more market related. Wix just hit 65, all this seems turning into almost covid level panic:)

[Paarslaars]

Yeah but back then they came with 2T in quantitative easing. With the current US deficit, no way they can do this?

[gfp]

3 minutes ago, UK said:

Wix just hit 65, all this seems turning into almost covid level panic:)

 

Well don't get too worked up on the VIX - the market hasn't even opened yet.

 

I'm buying in SPY shorts at 510 this morning.  Huge drops like this are not how bear markets get started.  Bear markets are more like boiling frog nobody notices we are getting so far from the highs.  5% drops are more like the end of bear markets.

 

I just think it's funny that people think the Fed cutting interest rates is going to help.  I have a commercial RE loan coming up for rate reset in May 2025 so I'm perfectly happy if they cut like crazy all of a sudden - but what the market has gone and priced in (multiple 50 bps cuts and inter-meeting cuts and all out panic) seems a bit of an over-reaction. 

 

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Yeah but back then they came with 2T in quantitative easing. With the current US deficit, no way they can do this?

 

Hopefully everyone realizes that 1) of course they can do it, and 2) it won't help and never has so we should just shelve the whole QE / QT tool.  Let's ask Japanese bankers how amazing it works. 

[Gregmal]

The problem is what we've said all along. The Fed is clueless, and relies on backward looking stuff like CPI and derivatives. They totally misread inflation. They were clueless about how it was almost all supply chain and covid lockdown related, and even when we arguably had deflation, they look at housing being elevated without even realizes THEY were the cause of that while everything else fell apart. Powell should be put in jail, or worse. And thats independent of whatever happens with the economy. Theyre just idiots. 

[Luke]

12 minutes ago, UK said:

I think at this pace they soon will have to try to fix, if not economy, than at least something more market related. Wix just hit 65, all this seems turning into almost covid level panic:)

What happened? Things in the US went from 35 PE to 30 PE? I don't see anything attractively priced, maybe Japan stocks but they were cheap before and we were buying...

[Luke]

The more free a market, the more gambling, and the more leveraged the economy will get  The unwinding of the yen carry trade is just one small thing of the gambling carousel with the options, concentration on mega-caps etc. We have a long long way to go down...

[Luke]

Right now most large-caps are priced to perfection. They are priced as if their business models will exist decades into the future without any disruption, regulation, economic slowdown, geopolitical conflicts etc. Tell me whats happening in China with chips or the manufacturing of western products, tell me about the disruptive forces of ai on software, search business, advertising. How it will impact legacy manufacturing like cars etc...

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, Luke said:

What happened? Things in the US went from 35 PE to 30 PE? I don't see anything attractively priced, maybe Japan stocks but they were cheap before and we were buying...

For someone like me who doesn't trade short term price swings, you're right, other than Fairfax, which remains cheap.  

[UK]

15 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Yeah but back then they came with 2T in quantitative easing. With the current US deficit, no way they can do this?

 

This is above my paygrade, but I do not think deficits preclude this.

[UK]

9 minutes ago, Luke said:

What happened? Things in the US went from 35 PE to 30 PE? I don't see anything attractively priced, maybe Japan stocks but they were cheap before and we were buying...

 

Nothing much in terms of valuations, I agree, but volatility seems just too high.

[Luke]

5 minutes ago, UK said:

 

This is above my paygrade, but I do not think deficits preclude this.

If they take climate change serious there is not much room for cutting costs and getting out of the deficit. Especially not if you want to make America great again (bring back high capex manufacturing), convert economy to clean energy (trillions of investments necessary that the private sector might not wanna make without support), fighting China (military costs, sanctions that are inflationary, rebuild supply chains), fight russia (energy market problems and more political turmoil), fight migration, fight inner country political turmoil, fight lack of housing etc etc

 

List is long and full of problems that all need tons of cash. Its still a great time to borrow money and buy assets because cash will be trash but assets that are at 10-15x earnings is better for me. Maybe the one or other higher quality megacap like LVMH, Berkshire etc. 

Edited August 5, 2024 by Luke

[Luke]

But i also dont think the US has any room to regulate their businesses with all the stuff that's going on so maybe buying an alphabet or so will still do relatively well or at market returns. 

[UK]

20 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Well don't get too worked up on the VIX - the market hasn't even opened yet.

 

I'm buying in SPY shorts at 510 this morning.  Huge drops like this are not how bear markets get started.  Bear markets are more like boiling frog nobody notices we are getting so far from the highs.  5% drops are more like the end of bear markets.

 

I just think it's funny that people think the Fed cutting interest rates is going to help.  I have a commercial RE loan coming up for rate reset in May 2025 so I'm perfectly happy if they cut like crazy all of a sudden - but what the market has gone and priced in (multiple 50 bps cuts and inter-meeting cuts and all out panic) seems a bit of an over-reaction. 

 

 

I have no idea really, but are you suggesting this is something like a market panic of 87 or 98? 

[Blake Hampton]

I personally think this is a culmination of events that will likely get worse. Still don’t think the market is at all attractively priced, not to mention that we could also be on the cusp of a nasty middle eastern war. My opinion of course doesn’t matter and I don’t know any of this for certain.
 

I question how the U.S government’s finances could even handle a war at this point.