ValueMaven Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Yes - but that was an arb play. They were tendering for a lot of stock - and selling off many parts of the business. It was more of a special situation then anything else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 BTC? OK, JK, I'd guess Google as well. BTC quite possible. As 6 hour download of a BTC node replaces each banking function through out world. It may not be longer before Oracle of Omaha and venerated Charlie Munger change their mind on it. PS: Interesting one from today is BNY Mellon news. All old players on street joins; ultimately Oracle joins. This may be only start up investment where general public had open market ledger and cap table (fully visible) access for 12 years or so before Traditional finance make their mind about it. As WEB says: "If history is guide to riches ; librarians would be richest in the world." Digital Scarcity is the trail on which World embarks. World abundant with Central bank currencies; a new trail leading to Digital Scarcity has begun. Every banking function? How does BTC assess credit risk, market risk, IRR, etc? How does BTC perform collections and fraud functions? How does BTC perform hedging? Risk appetite assessments? I am not well versed in Bitcoin or block chains but I have not seen anything related to these functions discussed in conjunction with Bitcoin. Apologize for premature all banking functions comment; and pardon for my ignorance in world full of experts. Bitcoin is zero trust (full verification every 10 minutes) - closed system designed for specific functions. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf assess credit risk, market risk, IRR, etc? --> Traditional Banks may need to evolve to verify and transact BTC public ledger(Currently Fintechs(Square,PayPal) have started to transact in past couple of years) . Putting BTC on collateral function; will able to assess the credit risk. BTC is zero trust system. How does BTC perform collections and fraud functions? --> It is zero trust system. What it entails is every transaction is verified for its entirety and keeps the records. In traditional banking functions; We send EDI files for data exchange between related parties. Distributed nodes keeps the full ledger available all time for anyone's who is user of system. How does BTC perform hedging? Risk appetite assessments? --> Hedging function can not be replaced by BTC; but having BTC in your portfolio may hedge modern finance fallacies. Risk Appetite assessment. ( BTC is 365/24/7 system can be transacted all time with) so some of the Risk assessment relates to "information synchronicity"; BTC will make immaterial Key difference is because of Bitcoin's digital scarcity "TIME" becomes material of IRR and any finance function (in -ve interest world; TIME doesn't carry any value and seem to make less of difference). "Time is Money" . "Do you love life? Then do not squander time; For that's the stuff life is made of." -- Benjamin Franklin More experts in these area of Banking can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdk77 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Could be MSFT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Could be MSFT He's said before they won't buy MSFT because of Gates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 ... and pardon for my ignorance in a world full of experts. My late mother taught me in a very special [, & here, undisclosed] way never to steal. Opportunistic, I'm here making an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Boeing started its corporate restructuring with the ejection of Muilenburg, a bit more a year ago. Way to early. GE started its corporate restructuring with the ejection of Immelt, I think about 3 years ago, so few years into the restructuring. Larry Culp is immensely respected for the work he did at Danaher, and by removing the GE Capital, the last of Jack Welch legacy, General Electric can really go back to its industrial roots. On MSFT, putting aside Gates & Buffet thing, MSFT alongside AMZN are the two of the FANGS (maybe Netflix too) that have the highest multiples on earning, due to them being leaders in the Cloud category. Why would Buffet invest in a high-multiple MSFT. When he got into Apple late 2016, the multiples was pretty low. If anything it could be Alphabet. But my guess, is that two months from now once the mystery name is revealed, it will be a name that people cannot really relate to and everybody would be shrugging their shoulders, and the discussion dies. Wasnt Philipps 66 at one time one of the mystery bet he made. No one is taking about it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 BTC? OK, JK, I'd guess Google as well. BTC quite possible. As 6 hour download of a BTC node replaces each banking function through out world. It may not be longer before Oracle of Omaha and venerated Charlie Munger change their mind on it. PS: Interesting one from today is BNY Mellon news. All old players on street joins; ultimately Oracle joins. This may be only start up investment where general public had open market ledger and cap table (fully visible) access for 12 years or so before Traditional finance make their mind about it. As WEB says: "If history is guide to riches ; librarians would be richest in the world." Digital Scarcity is the trail on which World embarks. World abundant with Central bank currencies; a new trail leading to Digital Scarcity has begun. Every banking function? How does BTC assess credit risk, market risk, IRR, etc? How does BTC perform collections and fraud functions? How does BTC perform hedging? Risk appetite assessments? I am not well versed in Bitcoin or block chains but I have not seen anything related to these functions discussed in conjunction with Bitcoin. Apologize for premature all banking functions comment; and pardon for my ignorance in world full of experts. Bitcoin is zero trust (full verification every 10 minutes) - closed system designed for specific functions. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf assess credit risk, market risk, IRR, etc? --> Traditional Banks may need to evolve to verify and transact BTC public ledger(Currently Fintechs(Square,PayPal) have started to transact in past couple of years) . Putting BTC on collateral function; will able to assess the credit risk. BTC is zero trust system. How does BTC perform collections and fraud functions? --> It is zero trust system. What it entails is every transaction is verified for its entirety and keeps the records. In traditional banking functions; We send EDI files for data exchange between related parties. Distributed nodes keeps the full ledger available all time for anyone's who is user of system. How does BTC perform hedging? Risk appetite assessments? --> Hedging function can not be replaced by BTC; but having BTC in your portfolio may hedge modern finance fallacies. Risk Appetite assessment. ( BTC is 365/24/7 system can be transacted all time with) so some of the Risk assessment relates to "information synchronicity"; BTC will make immaterial Key difference is because of Bitcoin's digital scarcity "TIME" becomes material of IRR and any finance function (in -ve interest world; TIME doesn't carry any value and seem to make less of difference). "Time is Money" . "Do you love life? Then do not squander time; For that's the stuff life is made of." -- Benjamin Franklin More experts in these area of Banking can chime in. I agree with you that BRK <i>should</i> buy BTC and hold forever, but the reason it was just a joke is that BRK will not buy BTC, at least while Warren Buffet is CEO. It is pretty hard to buy something you called "rat poison squared". He might be the greatest investor that ever lived, but he is human and thus has blind spots, and no one has an ego which would allow them to turn an about face like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 ... I don't see him entering the military complex through Boeing, has he ever invested in something with a defence component? kab60, Personally, I'm not aware of any. And [perhaps] like you, I do not consider it a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxthetrade Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Precision Castparts has a significant defense business, about 10% of sales when Berkshire aquired it. Today probably higher considering the state of the commercial business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 We may not get to know what the new investment is on Friday or Monday if Berkshire is again granted confidential treatment. Each earnings release I wish it was a return to Disney but its anyone's guess. Brookfield? General Electric? Disney? Google? CVS? Another boring pharma? I doubt it will be Boeing or Microsoft. I don't think he wants the heat from a major position in Suncor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Imagine, www.joshuakennon.com/warren-buffetts-12-billion-disney-mistake/ --- I dream of Apple + Disney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dooba Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Imagine, www.joshuakennon.com/warren-buffetts-12-billion-disney-mistake/ --- I dream of Apple + Disney I can't see it being Disney. They have one of the best brands around, but future cash flows are just way too hard to forecast right now, so I don't know how they would arrive at a valuation with any reasonable probability. I am a Disney shareholder (would not buy at today's prices), and I have no idea what the future of Disney is going to look like because it is still the early innings of DTC. I see multiple paths to significant monetization of their IP in the future, but there is significant uncertainty right now, and it's nonetheless getting Netlflix type multiples. It would shock me if Uncle Warren is a buyer right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Imagine, www.joshuakennon.com/warren-buffetts-12-billion-disney-mistake/ --- I dream of Apple + Disney I can't see it being Disney. They had one of the best brands around, but future cash flows are just way too hard to forecast right now, so I don't know how they would arrive at a valuation with any reasonable probability. I am a Disney shareholder (would not buy at today's prices), and I have no idea what the future of Disney is going to look like because it is still the early innings of DTC. I see multiple paths to significant monetization of their IP in the future, but there is significant uncertainty right now, and it's nonetheless getting Netlflix type multiples. It would shock me if Uncle Warren is a buyer right now. Yeah, I was really just illustrating a lost opportunity for WEB & for me. I bought DIS below $100 & sold when the pandemic started up, thinking I'd get a chance to repurchase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 GE makes a lot of sense, if he is comfortable that there are no hidden nukes. Energy, healthcare, aviation are good to great businesses with a lot of staying power. It would also be a win-win since the backing of Berkshire would be a big vote of confidence and lower GE's cost of capital. The possible dealbreaker is a rotten culture ala WFC and getting comfortable Culp can change that which might be too big a leap of faith. But between BHE and Castparts he should be able to get som insights. I don't see him entering the military complex through Boeing, has he ever invested in something with a defence component? He invested in GD before with a sizable position, but this was a good while ago. I would not be too surprised if he bought a basket of defense contractors, but I think not. GE is definitely a strong possibility. Another one is that he keeps adding to a basket of Pharma stocks (MRK, BMY were added last quarter if I remember correctly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 how about amzn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 already owns it - why would he need to file such a request then?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I seriously doubt it's a mega cap tech company. They wouldn't really need to be concerned about the market moving substantially just because Berkshire invested a few billion in a $500b+ market cap company, and they didn't seek to hide investing much larger sums in Apple. Something in the $100b size range makes a lot more sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CassiusKing1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 GE's market cap is right at $100B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-is-berkshire-hathaways-mystery-stock-big-investment-by-warren-buffett-could-be-disclosed-tomorrow-51613392217?mod=hp_LEAD_3 people are saying PayPal, DIS, and Home Depot as guesses ... frankly, I dont think it any of those ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthew2129 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Any chance its Chevron or some other big player in the energy space? Energy sector was bombed out below even the March lows during early Q4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Any chance its Chevron or some other big player in the energy space? Energy sector was bombed out below even the March lows during early Q4. Could very well be CVX...could also have been XOM. Both were quite low and attractive around the end of October. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 JD would be my hope but would be satisfied if Google and or Microsoft or all three of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Petro China again? Whom knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 He wouldn't need confidential treatment from the SEC for PetroChina or other large companies with primary listings overseas. We know that the company fits into the "Commercial, Industrial and Other" category, so it isn't a finance company or a consumer products company. Berkshire seems to group tech with Commercial Industrial and Other so tech is still a possibility. Maybe we will know this evening, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Thank you for informing insight on the Overseas primary listing rules as very much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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