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Just for Fun -- What do you think FFH most likely did with Blackberry


What do you think FFH most likely did with Blackberry  

188 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think FFH most likely did with Blackberry

    • Shares/convert not sold and puts to expensive to buy significantly (partially done)
    • Shares/convert not sold and and no counterparty to sell significant calls to (partially done)
    • Redeem the converts and sold; but did not sell any of the original common shares
    • Was able to buy(sell) ~50 million shares worth of puts(calls) on the position
    • Sold the common shares partially (~25 million shares); kept the converts untouched; no derivative was used
    • Shares/convert not sold; Used swapped contracts to lock-in some gains (but not meaningful)
    • Did absolutely nothing
    • WILD CARD: bought more on its way up


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Folks, what do you think FFH did with Blackberry ?

You got 5 days to cast your vote.

 

Don't take it too seriously.

Let's see if the team here know how Prem Watsa & co. think.

I admit it was a difficult hand even though it was to the upside.

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This is a tough, tough question. Especially to assign probabilities to the various possible outcomes. I am having an especially hard time separating what i hope they did with what my rational brain thinks they have actually done.

 

I voted ‘did nothing’ because i think it the highest probability of all the likely options :-)

 

They had a small opportunity to lock in +$1 billion in gains (from US$6.63). Here is how i am looking at BB:

 

1.) did nothing - 60%

- my weighting is driven by no disclosures and/or Fairfax wanting to stick out the re-build and/or not enough time etc

2.) action locking in up to $300 million in gains 30%

3.) action locking in $300-500 million in gains 5%

4.) action locking in +$500 million in gains 5%

 

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Perhaps this is simply consistent with pessimistic nature of a value investor, but I really don't think that FFH/Prem did anything with BB. It seems that they consider this a Long Term holding and really don't fancy themselves as traders, and moving out and potentially back into this is more consistent with trading mentality. Yes, a big component of value investing is selling when price exceeds value, and at $20+, that was arguably the case, but I simply do not think they did anything.

 

 

Hope I am wrong.

 

 

-Crip

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Funny how things go though.

 

BB seems to be holding in the $12 US -$15 CDN range. If someone told us a month ago that BB would double in the next 30 days we would have been quite pleased.

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Regardless of what they did or didn't do, or whatever the timing.  Blackberry is still holding onto price gains on the year worth about $500M to Fairfax, and the Fairfax stock price does not reflect that.

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Results of the Poll:

 

hares/convert not sold and puts to expensive to buy significantly (partially done)

2 (2.1%)

 

Shares/convert not sold and and no counterparty to sell significant calls to  (partially done)

0 (0%)

 

Redeem the converts and sold; but did not sell any of the original common shares

4 (4.3%)

 

Was able to buy(sell) ~50 million shares worth of puts(calls) on the position

10 (10.6%)

 

Sold the common shares partially (~25 million shares); kept the converts untouched; no derivative was used

9 (9.6%)

 

Shares/convert not sold; Used swapped contracts to lock-in some gains (but not meaningful)

7 (7.4%)

 

Did absolutely nothing

59 (62.8%)

 

WILD CARD:  bought more on its way up

3 (3.2%)

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