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Just for Fun -- What do you think FFH most likely did with Blackberry


Xerxes
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What do you think FFH most likely did with Blackberry  

188 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think FFH most likely did with Blackberry

    • Shares/convert not sold and puts to expensive to buy significantly (partially done)
    • Shares/convert not sold and and no counterparty to sell significant calls to (partially done)
    • Redeem the converts and sold; but did not sell any of the original common shares
    • Was able to buy(sell) ~50 million shares worth of puts(calls) on the position
    • Sold the common shares partially (~25 million shares); kept the converts untouched; no derivative was used
    • Shares/convert not sold; Used swapped contracts to lock-in some gains (but not meaningful)
    • Did absolutely nothing
    • WILD CARD: bought more on its way up


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Folks, what do you think FFH did with Blackberry ?

You got 5 days to cast your vote.

 

Don't take it too seriously.

Let's see if the team here know how Prem Watsa & co. think.

I admit it was a difficult hand even though it was to the upside.

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This is a tough, tough question. Especially to assign probabilities to the various possible outcomes. I am having an especially hard time separating what i hope they did with what my rational brain thinks they have actually done.

 

I voted ‘did nothing’ because i think it the highest probability of all the likely options :-)

 

They had a small opportunity to lock in +$1 billion in gains (from US$6.63). Here is how i am looking at BB:

 

1.) did nothing - 60%

- my weighting is driven by no disclosures and/or Fairfax wanting to stick out the re-build and/or not enough time etc

2.) action locking in up to $300 million in gains 30%

3.) action locking in $300-500 million in gains 5%

4.) action locking in +$500 million in gains 5%

 

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Perhaps this is simply consistent with pessimistic nature of a value investor, but I really don't think that FFH/Prem did anything with BB. It seems that they consider this a Long Term holding and really don't fancy themselves as traders, and moving out and potentially back into this is more consistent with trading mentality. Yes, a big component of value investing is selling when price exceeds value, and at $20+, that was arguably the case, but I simply do not think they did anything.

 

 

Hope I am wrong.

 

 

-Crip

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Results of the Poll:

 

hares/convert not sold and puts to expensive to buy significantly (partially done)

2 (2.1%)

 

Shares/convert not sold and and no counterparty to sell significant calls to  (partially done)

0 (0%)

 

Redeem the converts and sold; but did not sell any of the original common shares

4 (4.3%)

 

Was able to buy(sell) ~50 million shares worth of puts(calls) on the position

10 (10.6%)

 

Sold the common shares partially (~25 million shares); kept the converts untouched; no derivative was used

9 (9.6%)

 

Shares/convert not sold; Used swapped contracts to lock-in some gains (but not meaningful)

7 (7.4%)

 

Did absolutely nothing

59 (62.8%)

 

WILD CARD:  bought more on its way up

3 (3.2%)

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