Just for Fun -- What do you think FFH most likely did with Blackberry

[Xerxes]

Folks, what do you think FFH did with Blackberry ?

You got 5 days to cast your vote.

 

Don't take it too seriously.

Let's see if the team here know how Prem Watsa & co. think.

I admit it was a difficult hand even though it was to the upside.

[obtuse_investor]

I expect they did something with their BB position, but it was probably something complicated and too smart.

 

I miss the time when Prem and team only stepped over 1ft hurdles.

[Viking]

This is a tough, tough question. Especially to assign probabilities to the various possible outcomes. I am having an especially hard time separating what i hope they did with what my rational brain thinks they have actually done.

 

I voted ‘did nothing’ because i think it the highest probability of all the likely options :-)

 

They had a small opportunity to lock in +$1 billion in gains (from US$6.63). Here is how i am looking at BB:

 

1.) did nothing - 60%

- my weighting is driven by no disclosures and/or Fairfax wanting to stick out the re-build and/or not enough time etc

2.) action locking in up to $300 million in gains 30%

3.) action locking in $300-500 million in gains 5%

4.) action locking in +$500 million in gains 5%

 

[Crip1]

Perhaps this is simply consistent with pessimistic nature of a value investor, but I really don't think that FFH/Prem did anything with BB. It seems that they consider this a Long Term holding and really don't fancy themselves as traders, and moving out and potentially back into this is more consistent with trading mentality. Yes, a big component of value investing is selling when price exceeds value, and at $20+, that was arguably the case, but I simply do not think they did anything.

 

 

Hope I am wrong.

 

 

-Crip

[cwericb]

Funny how things go though.

 

BB seems to be holding in the $12 US -$15 CDN range. If someone told us a month ago that BB would double in the next 30 days we would have been quite pleased.

[Santayana]

Regardless of what they did or didn't do, or whatever the timing.  Blackberry is still holding onto price gains on the year worth about $500M to Fairfax, and the Fairfax stock price does not reflect that.

[gurjot]

they probably did nothing.  they like to make money hard way.  lets see,  hope i am wrong

[ValueMaven]

Nothing

[bizaro86]

I also voted nothing.

[roundball100]

My guess: they bought more shares (just kidding!!!)

[alertmeipp]

I was bullish on it.

but man, it sucks to see a few management sell large portion of their share during the run up (not even close to the top)

 

 

[Xerxes]

Results of the Poll:

 

hares/convert not sold and puts to expensive to buy significantly (partially done)

2 (2.1%)

 

Shares/convert not sold and and no counterparty to sell significant calls to  (partially done)

0 (0%)

 

Redeem the converts and sold; but did not sell any of the original common shares

4 (4.3%)

 

Was able to buy(sell) ~50 million shares worth of puts(calls) on the position

10 (10.6%)

 

Sold the common shares partially (~25 million shares); kept the converts untouched; no derivative was used

9 (9.6%)

 

Shares/convert not sold; Used swapped contracts to lock-in some gains (but not meaningful)

7 (7.4%)

 

Did absolutely nothing

59 (62.8%)

 

WILD CARD:  bought more on its way up

3 (3.2%)