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Topping out?


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We have a solid sign of weakness today on IWM.

 

Chart looks right about to reverse.

 

This could be a good hedge on any market weakness.

 

Then we have the FAANGM incapable to break above their highs. Some for 4-6 months. AAPL is the only one about to take it out but, seems extended on latest rally. GOOG had its high more recently.

 

Anyhow seems scary looking. I was amazed to look at some stocks mentioned by Gregmal and to see the volatility, one day doubles, etc.

 

Better be prepared for some air pocket ahead despite remaining constructive on the economy.

 

Cardboard

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Yup. Its been topping out in slow-motion. I wouldn't fuck with the FANGs. I have a small AAPL put position and own GOOG and MSFT. The stuff you want to be hedging with and/or outright shorting is all conveniently placed inside a few of the worlds greatest ETFs.

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Yup. Its been topping out in slow-motion. I wouldn't fuck with the FANGs. I have a small AAPL put position and own GOOG and MSFT. The stuff you want to be hedging with and/or outright shorting is all conveniently placed inside a few of the worlds greatest ETFs.

 

ARKK, what else?

 

My dad was asking me about a Vanguard Discretionary Consumer ETF.  I looked at the thing, and 31% of the fund was Amazon and Tesla.  He said it had returned 45% for the last 3 or 4 years. I told him congratulations on riding Tesla, but sell the POS immediately.

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We have a solid sign of weakness today on IWM.

 

Chart looks right about to reverse.

 

This could be a good hedge on any market weakness.

 

Then we have the FAANGM incapable to break above their highs. Some for 4-6 months. AAPL is the only one about to take it out but, seems extended on latest rally. GOOG had its high more recently.

 

Anyhow seems scary looking. I was amazed to look at some stocks mentioned by Gregmal and to see the volatility, one day doubles, etc.

 

Better be prepared for some air pocket ahead despite remaining constructive on the economy.

 

Cardboard

 

Did you switch to technical analysis? I remember you used to focus on O&G stocks.

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Yup. Its been topping out in slow-motion. I wouldn't fuck with the FANGs. I have a small AAPL put position and own GOOG and MSFT. The stuff you want to be hedging with and/or outright shorting is all conveniently placed inside a few of the worlds greatest ETFs.

 

ARKK, what else?

 

My dad was asking me about a Vanguard Discretionary Consumer ETF.  I looked at the thing, and 31% of the fund was Amazon and Tesla.  He said it had returned 45% for the last 3 or 4 years. I told him congratulations on riding Tesla, but sell the POS immediately.

 

All the Arks. SPAK is juicy as well. To me, its almost eerily similar to the mortgage bond stuff in a poetic sort of way. People are demanding something and the banks/firms, who give zero shits about quality, are building them these mega steaming piles of poo-poo. As a short seller, I hate the risk of single stock shorts, although I will do it anyway from time to time. So having a diversified poo-poo basket is just awesome.

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I think there is plenty in the pipeline to keep this going e.g. a fast vaccine roll-out, a big fiscal stimulus once Biden gets in, the Fed panicking over crappy Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 data and injecting more money into the system, US hospitalizations starting to fall as the virus burns out and vaccinations start to make an impact etc etc etc.

 

 

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It depends what markets people are referring to. The broader market? Real companies? IE S&P components? Sure. But there's plenty of signs that some of the other stuff is beginning to crack and its been occurring for weeks. For instance, there is an inevitable shift in supply demand that occurs. Over time, companies realize an outsized demand, and something as simple as an ATM will soon tap that out. A lot of the more speculative names Ive been following dont even do secondaries anymore. BEAM did an offering at 23.50 a few months ago and the stock then went to $90. So now you have companies like that just signing brokerage arrangements that are going to flood the market as long as prices stay where they are. This is just one example/data point of many. HTZ didnt stay at $5 for similar reasons. Just like AMC is inevitably going to 0 as well.

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We have a solid sign of weakness today on IWM.

 

Chart looks right about to reverse.

 

This could be a good hedge on any market weakness.

 

Then we have the FAANGM incapable to break above their highs. Some for 4-6 months. AAPL is the only one about to take it out but, seems extended on latest rally. GOOG had its high more recently.

 

Anyhow seems scary looking. I was amazed to look at some stocks mentioned by Gregmal and to see the volatility, one day doubles, etc.

 

Better be prepared for some air pocket ahead despite remaining constructive on the economy.

 

Cardboard

 

IWM up >1.4% morning after.  wonder if there was some whale executing a couple derivs trades yesterday that made counterparties scurry...

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Makes sense. It is much easier to invest a windfall in something high risk and high reward than money you actually worked for. And it isn't as though you can go and blow it on a holiday or bottles and models.

 

It will be interesting to see next year if there will be a lot of profit taking as people have better spending options and stop benefiting from rent and mortgage holidays. Also while a bunch of stuff has gone up 50-100% from the March lows and the more speculative stuff has gone up 5-10x 2021 will probably be a lot more boring.

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My neighbor informed me he is making $300 to $400 per day day-trading on Robinhood with a $25k account balance.  If anybody wants to know his secret I can forward his contact info.

 

That's 5% a week. Totally doable over the course of the next 30 years.  ;D

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To be fair the FANG stocks are up a lot (AMZN +71%, AAPL +76%, GOOG +28%, NFLX + ~64%, MSFT +38%, FB +30%) for the year.

 

I agree with you there are a lot of air pockets out there - those with more investment experience will invest accordingly.

History can show us what to avoid, even if it does not teach us what to do — by showing the most common mistakes that mankind is apt to make and to repeat.

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I was quite cautious about a potential top here as well, but the IBKR's clients' combined net short position makes me thing it is going higher. Also keep in mind that Cardboard was one of the worst investors in this forum, according to a prior thread of something like "masters of CoBF".

By inverting whatever he says, it might provide an edge.

Nothing personal to Carboard. He probably have improved a lot recently.

 

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