Leaving New York City

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

If you live in NYC, buying a house in a nice suburb right now is very cheap insurance.  If Mr Mamdani gets elected and implements even 5% of his agenda (opening prisons, abolishing police, et all), tens of thousands of households will flee NYC.  Some will go elsewhere, but a vast majority will have to stay in commuting suburbs.  So call it 25,000 families.  However, inventory in the state of NJ, CT, Long Island and Westchester is: 37,520 units, and that includes towns that are not desirable, and towns that are 2 hours away commute one way, so not really practicable.  

My guess is that housing prices in the commuting suburbs of NYC will scream higher.  

It’s already screamed higher. It’s up maybe 20% during the last 3 months and at least 30% during the last one year. There’s no inventory. Nobody selling unless moving to Florida, divorce or dealth

[villainx]

Death seems like the worst way to get back at Mamdani's administration.

 

=P

[Marco Van Basten]

49 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

It’s already screamed higher. It’s up maybe 20% during the last 3 months and at least 30% during the last one year. There’s no inventory. Nobody selling unless moving to Florida, divorce or dealth

Really?  Would you mind providing the source?  I have not noticed it.  Thank you.

[sleepydragon]

5 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Really?  Would you mind providing the source?  I have not noticed it.  Thank you.

no concrete proof but my wife and I have been looking to buy a house for the last 4 years at greenwich ct, and price just kept going up. The house we used to be able to afford (but thought it's too expensive for the price) is now 40-50% higher , and at higher mortgage rate. The house we sold 4 years ago (also suburb CT, but 1.5 hr further from NYC) is now 30% higher from our sale price based on Zillow estimate.

[sleepydragon]

Just now, sleepydragon said:

no concrete proof but my wife and I have been looking to buy a house for the last 4 years at greenwich ct, and price just kept going up. The house we used to be able to afford (but thought it's too expensive for the price) is now 40-50% higher , and at higher mortgage rate. The house we sold 4 years ago (also suburb CT, but 1.5 hr further from NYC) is now 30% higher from our sale price based on Zillow estimate.

 

it's apparently all my fault -- cuz my wife asked me to put everything in PLTR when it's $19, and I insisted with my "value investing"

[Marco Van Basten]

3 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

no concrete proof but my wife and I have been looking to buy a house for the last 4 years at greenwich ct, and price just kept going up. The house we used to be able to afford (but thought it's too expensive for the price) is now 40-50% higher , and at higher mortgage rate. The house we sold 4 years ago (also suburb CT, but 1.5 hr further from NYC) is now 30% higher from our sale price based on Zillow estimate.

Oh, I agree that prices are 30-50% higher than 5 years ago.  Where in CT did you sell your house?  My friend just sold his house in Rye and it went within a week with a dozen bids.  Same thing in Bergen county.  Have you looked at Darien CT or are you just looking in Riverside?  Have you considered Westport?  

 

Edited June 29, 2025 by Marco Van Basten

[sleepydragon]

1 minute ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Oh, I agree that prices are 30-50% higher than 5 years ago.  Where in CT did you sell your house?  My friend just sold his house in Rye and it went within a week with a dozen bids.  Same thing in Bergen county.  Have you looked at Darien CT or are you just looking in Riverside?  Have you considered Westport?  

We used to live in Wilton.

darien is almost as expensive as Greenwich ( slightly less expensive). We saw a house at darien that had no basement and it was sold on the Monday following the open house. Westport is nice, but a bit far, though it’s on the train line. New cannan is also nice. But wife thinks greenwich is the best (but more expensive) because it’s closest to NYC. Are you looking to buy? 

[Marco Van Basten]

23 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

We used to live in Wilton.

darien is almost as expensive as Greenwich ( slightly less expensive). We saw a house at darien that had no basement and it was sold on the Monday following the open house. Westport is nice, but a bit far, though it’s on the train line. New cannan is also nice. But wife thinks greenwich is the best (but more expensive) because it’s closest to NYC. Are you looking to buy? 

I sent you a message.  I bought already.  

[sleepydragon]

Just now, Marco Van Basten said:

I sent you a message.  I bought already.  

 

Marco, give me some stock picks. I need to make some money quick

We saw a house my wife likes, and she want me to sell all my IRAs. 

[Marco Van Basten]

33 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

 

Marco, give me some stock picks. I need to make some money quick

We saw a house my wife likes, and she want me to sell all my IRAs. 

Ha, if I knew what would go up tomorrow, I'd be a billionaire.  For the long run, I'd buy Amrize here, Arcosa, CRH, CP, Airbus, NEN (that will work over say a decade or two), JOE, BLDR, MCO (I own all of these.)

 I also own Safran, GE, TDG, URI, Visa, Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange, Progressive, MCEM, Dior, Casey's, Heidelberg Materials, Fairfax, but I'd be hesitant to recommend these ones since I think they are cheap, but not that cheap having had big runs.  

Edited June 29, 2025 by Marco Van Basten

[Spekulatius]

@Marco Van Basten You should have picked Snake Plissken as yo screen name:

[Marco Van Basten]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

@Marco Van Basten You should have picked Snake Plissken as yo screen name:

I am an optimist who was born in the USSR!  I am not a misanthrope, but unfortunately I don't have martial art skills.  

[brobro777]

One thing about leaving NYC is you pay less tax because you're not paying NYC income tax anymore, which was nice when I moved to Los Angeles

 

Another thing about NYC is the biggest rat I've ever seen was the one I saw on the stairs in the subway station on 23rd and 6th (on the stairs leading to the platform where passengers stand to wait for trains, not on the tracks below the platform) - the rats you see scurrying around homeless tent camps in Los Angeles are like Mickey Mouse compared to NYC rats

 

haha

 

 

 

[Marco Van Basten]

The one advantage of NYC that I never used was the ease of getting and keeping a mistress.  Much harder to do in the suburbs.  

[sleepydragon]

3 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Ha, if I knew what would go up tomorrow, I'd be a billionaire.  For the long run, I'd buy Amrize here, Arcosa, CRH, CP, Airbus, NEN (that will work over say a decade or two), JOE, BLDR, MCO (I own all of these.)

 I also own Safran, GE, TDG, URI, Visa, Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange, Progressive, MCEM, Dior, Casey's, Heidelberg Materials, Fairfax, but I'd be hesitant to recommend these ones since I think they are cheap, but not that cheap having had big runs.  

Thanks! I did bought amrz and mco a few days ago. Also have small position in CP. I think i will buy some CRH. I think CRH will be added to sp500, just a matter of time.

[sleepydragon]

3 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

The one advantage of NYC that I never used was the ease of getting and keeping a mistress.  Much harder to do in the suburbs.  

Getting a mistress is like selling a put on half of one’s assets

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, brobro777 said:

One thing about leaving NYC is you pay less tax because you're not paying NYC income tax anymore, which was nice when I moved to Los Angeles

 

Another thing about NYC is the biggest rat I've ever seen was the one I saw on the stairs in the subway station on 23rd and 6th (on the stairs leading to the platform where passengers stand to wait for trains, not on the tracks below the platform) - the rats you see scurrying around homeless tent camps in Los Angeles are like Mickey Mouse compared to NYC rats

 

haha

 

@brobro777,

 

Carefully thought out posts here about NYC real estate prices, NYC taxes, and NYC rat sizes. Awesome, thank you!

[John Hjorth]

4 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

it's apparently all my fault -- cuz my wife asked me to put everything in PLTR when it's $19, and I insisted with my "value investing".

 

3 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

The one advantage of NYC that I never used was the ease of getting and keeping a mistress.  Much harder to do in the suburbs.  

 

35 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

Getting a mistress is like selling a put on half of one’s assets

 

Awesome exchange! I hope you still get kissed, @sleepydragon!

[Spekulatius]

Worth a NYC visit by itself, IMO:

 

[Gregmal]

In FL we continue to root for Zohan.....NYC will get what it deserves, and more deserving locations will continue to reap the benefits of the exodus of the quality citizens. 

 

I was revisiting some names, hoping mainly to see some ideas emerge in the wake of this short term stupidity and was a little surprised by the conclusion. We heard a lot of "NY isnt dead", even "NYC is back" even "thriving" talk. However upon visiting my typical NY basket of names....are there ANY NY related names that are anywhere near recovered from the covid damage? 

 

The MSG universe finally got there. ESRT despite solid execution, nope. VNO not even close. SLG, nope. Veris, nope. Was "the recovery" a myth? In what world are there credible investment cases around this city given the deteriorating politics and quality of overall taxpayer(let alone citizen resident)?

[thepupil]

12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

In FL we continue to root for Zohan.....NYC will get what it deserves, and more deserving locations will continue to reap the benefits of the exodus of the quality citizens. 

 

I was revisiting some names, hoping mainly to see some ideas emerge in the wake of this short term stupidity and was a little surprised by the conclusion. We heard a lot of "NY isnt dead", even "NYC is back" even "thriving" talk. However upon visiting my typical NY basket of names....are there ANY NY related names that are anywhere near recovered from the covid damage? 

 

The MSG universe finally got there. ESRT despite solid execution, nope. VNO not even close. SLG, nope. Veris, nope. Was "the recovery" a myth? In what world are there credible investment cases around this city given the deteriorating politics and quality of overall taxpayer(let alone citizen resident)?

 

I don't think those are NYC specific. VNO did no worse than BXP from 12/31/2019 to present despite a worse balance sheet and vast majority in NYC vs diversified across gateway cities like BXP.

 

CUZ only outperformed VNO by 10% (total return of -19% vs -30% from 12/2019). CUZ had big geographical tailwinds and a much better balance sheet and had not had a positive return. If it was just an NYC thing, then how come CUZ didn't destroy VNO? 

 

VRE's done pretty well fundamentally, but is overlevered for REIT mkt, tainted by  long slog of transition to pure play, trades at discount reflecting lack of scale, high leverage...

 

Not clear at all to me that the poor return of those stocks from pre-covid (herein defined as 12/2019) is an NYC thing. It's just a REIT thing. 

 

 

I think VRE seems like a decent r/r here. think there's good alignment, leverage improving, portfolio becoming more and  more coherent and neatly fit in another REIT or a PE fund. i recognize you still hold mgt in penalty box for the whole kushner episode, btu seems like a he said / she said to me...hell Kushner could bid again now that he's making billions of dollars. 

 

Edited November 4, 2025 by thepupil

[Gregmal]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/05/new-yorkers-will-leave-starwood-capital-sternlicht-mamdani.html

 

 

[Gregmal]

Florida looking at eliminating property taxes. Dipshit in NYC wants to hike them 10% lmfao. The gift that keeps on giving….

[73 Reds]

27 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Florida looking at eliminating property taxes. Dipshit in NYC wants to hike them 10% lmfao. The gift that keeps on giving….

Even as a FL resident and property owner, I'd shy away from eliminating property taxes in this State.  OTOH, consider who would vote for more property taxes in NYC.  Either the vote should come only from property owners - the people directly affected, or bring back polling tests.   Hate to think what NYC may look like at the end of this mayor's tenure and am glad I have no interests there whatsoever.

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Even as a FL resident and property owner, I'd shy away from eliminating property taxes in this State.  OTOH, consider who would vote for more property taxes in NYC.  Either the vote should come only from property owners - the people directly affected, or bring back polling tests.   Hate to think what NYC may look like at the end of this mayor's tenure and am glad I have no interests there whatsoever.

Agree, I don’t mind paying some taxes because here, the money is spent wisely and generally speaking, efficiently. In NY who knows where and to what stupid liberal cause it’s going to. Only after of course, it’s passed thru the skimmer ops. 
 

But overall it’s just staggering seeing a city that’s drowning keep asking for more water lol.