Suck It Value Investors! You guys suck!

[Guest]

People have been saying it feels like 1999 for several years now.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/business/in-some-ways-its-looking-like-1999-in-the-stock-market.html

 

Personally I don't think it's 1999. Even the FAANG stocks (well most) trade at pretty reasonable valuations given how low interest rates are and they're monopolistic like power. Now, if the government steps in or interest rates shoot up, then things could change pretty quickly.

 

Well, beware of November then, if that is what you think is holding this up.

 

Personally, I think the markets have come to terms that March was a media hoax and that while the virus is real, it is much closer to the flu than some doomsday bug. To the extent that politicians dont shut the economy down, things will grind it out, with the weaker numbers more than offset by confirmation of long term ZIRP and the goldilocks scenario where mainstreet needs stimulus for a longer time than Wall St does. I am still quite bearish, but this seems to be my read on why the market is trading where it is.

 

Further, as BG mentioned, we had extreme excess and exuberance in some social media and biotech maybe 5 years ago, tech and pot 3 or so years ago, etc, which shook itself out. There certainly isn't a case that there arent stocks you can buy for reasonable valuations right now. But as always, you have to pay up for quality. If you wanted firesale prices, you should have been buying in March.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to a real bear market. I would actually welcome it. I'm just saying that we're not close to 1999 levels from a euphoria (or valuation) perspective in my opinion.

[jschembs]

People have been saying it feels like 1999 for several years now.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/business/in-some-ways-its-looking-like-1999-in-the-stock-market.html

 

Personally I don't think it's 1999. Even the FAANG stocks (well most) trade at pretty reasonable valuations given how low interest rates are and they're monopolistic like power. Now, if the government steps in or interest rates shoot up, then things could change pretty quickly.

 

But in 1999 we weren't in the middle of a very obvious, and likely very severe, recession.

Well, beware of November then, if that is what you think is holding this up.

 

Personally, I think the markets have come to terms that March was a media hoax and that while the virus is real, it is much closer to the flu than some doomsday bug. To the extent that politicians dont shut the economy down, things will grind it out, with the weaker numbers more than offset by confirmation of long term ZIRP and the goldilocks scenario where mainstreet needs stimulus for a longer time than Wall St does. I am still quite bearish, but this seems to be my read on why the market is trading where it is.

 

Further, as BG mentioned, we had extreme excess and exuberance in some social media and biotech maybe 5 years ago, tech and pot 3 or so years ago, etc, which shook itself out. There certainly isn't a case that there arent stocks you can buy for reasonable valuations right now. But as always, you have to pay up for quality. If you wanted firesale prices, you should have been buying in March.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to a real bear market. I would actually welcome it. I'm just saying that we're not close to 1999 levels from a euphoria (or valuation) perspective in my opinion.

[Spekulatius]

People have been saying it feels like 1999 for several years now.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/business/in-some-ways-its-looking-like-1999-in-the-stock-market.html

 

Personally I don't think it's 1999. Even the FAANG stocks (well most) trade at pretty reasonable valuations given how low interest rates are and they're monopolistic like power. Now, if the government steps in or interest rates shoot up, then things could change pretty quickly.

 

Well, beware of November then, if that is what you think is holding this up.

 

Personally, I think the markets have come to terms that March was a media hoax and that while the virus is real, it is much closer to the flu than some doomsday bug. To the extent that politicians dont shut the economy down, things will grind it out, with the weaker numbers more than offset by confirmation of long term ZIRP and the goldilocks scenario where mainstreet needs stimulus for a longer time than Wall St does. I am still quite bearish, but this seems to be my read on why the market is trading where it is.

 

Further, as BG mentioned, we had extreme excess and exuberance in some social media and biotech maybe 5 years ago, tech and pot 3 or so years ago, etc, which shook itself out. There certainly isn't a case that there arent stocks you can buy for reasonable valuations right now. But as always, you have to pay up for quality. If you wanted firesale prices, you should have been buying in March.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to a real bear market. I would actually welcome it. I'm just saying that we're not close to 1999 levels from a euphoria (or valuation) perspective in my opinion.

 

The 1999 stock market was very bifurcated with a lot of cheap but also very expensive pensive stocks. The well known quality large cap stocks were very expensive as were fat growing tech stocks, many of which had questionable business model.

 

Now, the bubble seems to be in stocks like TESLA (and it’s imitators), SHOP, SAAS companies as well as millennial stocks like LMND. This pretty much looks like 1999 to me, except they in 1999 interest rates were higher, but also the economy was in much better shape.

[Guest]

"To appreciate just how great a year it was for the winners, compare Qualcomm, the best-performing stock of 1999 (among those that began the year over $5 a share) with the top performers of previous years. Qualcomm rose 2,619 percent in 1999. Twelve other stocks on Nasdaq that started the year over $5 managed to climb at least 1,000 percent. A further seven issues rose at least 900 percent.

 

By contrast, in the first nine years of the decade, only one such stock ever rose as much as 900 percent in a year. That was Amazon.com, which soared 966 percent in 1998."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/03/business/the-year-in-the-markets-1999-extraordinary-winners-and-more-losers.html

 

Not even Telsa is up that much over the past year.

 

 

 

[york]

Gold, silver, copper, and uranium.

 

Can I still be a value investor if these are my core holdings?

[rkbabang]

Gold, silver, copper, and uranium.

 

Can I still be a value investor if these are my core holdings?

 

What precautions do you need to take to store/handle uranium?

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Gold, silver, copper, and uranium.

 

Can I still be a value investor if these are my core holdings?

 

What precautions do you need to take to store/handle uranium?

 

 

Uranium investments get interesting once you reach critical mass.

[Jurgis]

Gold, silver, copper, and uranium.

 

Can I still be a value investor if these are my core holdings?

 

What precautions do you need to take to store/handle uranium?

 

 

Uranium investments get interesting once you reach critical mass.

 

You have to diversify to avoid the blow up.

[nickenumbers]

Gold, silver, copper, and uranium.

 

Can I still be a value investor if these are my core holdings?

 

What precautions do you need to take to store/handle uranium?

 

 

Uranium investments get interesting once you reach critical mass.

 

You have to diversify to avoid the blow up.

 

It is a regulated material so you have to protect and secure it. 

I would suggest putting it in your right front pocket and at night sleeping with it under you pillow. ;)

[Jurgis]

Gold, silver, copper, and uranium.

 

Can I still be a value investor if these are my core holdings?

 

What precautions do you need to take to store/handle uranium?

 

 

Uranium investments get interesting once you reach critical mass.

 

You have to diversify to avoid the blow up.

 

It is a regulated material so you have to protect and secure it. 

I would suggest putting it in your right front pocket and at night sleeping with it under you pillow. ;)

 

That should guarantee glowing returns.

[rkbabang]

Gold, silver, copper, and uranium.

 

Can I still be a value investor if these are my core holdings?

 

What precautions do you need to take to store/handle uranium?

 

 

Uranium investments get interesting once you reach critical mass.

 

You have to diversify to avoid the blow up.

 

It is a regulated material so you have to protect and secure it. 

I would suggest putting it in your right front pocket and at night sleeping with it under you pillow. ;)

 

I've found lead wool blankets (https://marshield.com/medical-shielding/lead-blankets/), but I can't seem to find lead pillow covers anywhere. Weird.

[Spekulatius]

I wonder about the difference between U-238 and U-235. I know it looks and tastes the same.

The Russian dealer I have been chatting with sells both.

[rkbabang]

I wonder about the difference between U-238 and U-235. I know it looks and tastes the same.

The Russian dealer I have been chatting with sells both.

 

It depend on how long you intend to hold.  U-238 lasts longer.  But U-235 is going to explode.  To the moon!

[Jurgis]

I wonder about the difference between U-238 and U-235. I know it looks and tastes the same.

The Russian dealer I have been chatting with sells both.

 

Russian dealers are so 20th century.

Just buy it on Amazon FFS: https://smile.amazon.com/Images-SI-Uranium-Ore/dp/B000796XXM/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2X6ULNHYIQ44Q&dchild=1&keywords=uranium+ore&qid=1595350695&sprefix=uranium%2Caps%2C157&sr=8-1

[muscleman]

 

 

Of course, this is likely like the monkey who accidentally got 40 heads in a row

 

 

 

But what if all those monkeys came from the same town let’s call it “Robinhoodville” then would it not show that this is not just luck ?

 

That's only if you sample both winners and losers from “Robinhoodville”. I recently saw a story in twitter about such a guy who put up 20k and then in a few days turn his account into negative 800k and killed himself.

 

“Robinhoodville” tells rookie investors that out of money call options expiring in one month are high risk, and at the money calls expiring in one month are medium risk and in the money expiring in one month are low risk. I think this is outright deceit.

 

Of course these rookies will fill out the form like "option trading experience: 10 years" to make sure they can start trading options, even if they have zero experience, just like when they open a porn site and click "Yes" to the question: "Are you at least 18 years old?"

 

[pinky1417]

We're now in the period of separating the true value investors from the speculators. It has nothing to do with returns and everything to do with psychology. Can you keep a cool head while everyone around you is supposedly getting rich fast?

 

I'm getting a few texts from friends telling me bragging about their returns over the last ~12 months. One friend thinks he has special skill because he invested in the FANGs ex-Apple and should thus start a hedge fund. Another routinely sends me texts telling me about successes in short term gains by buying Hertz stock or trading various options. These aren't dumb people: we're talking about JD-MBAs, engineers, and degrees from Yale, Harvard, and MIT. I'm happy that my friends made money and I'm not inclined to follow their lead in "investing" strategy. But I see how they might influence their social circle to engage in short-term trading, greater-fool "investing," and other speculation. I try to warn them that their short-term success is hazardous to their wealth because they'll start believing that they have special skills or that they can't lose.

[nickenumbers]

I wonder about the difference between U-238 and U-235. I know it looks and tastes the same.

The Russian dealer I have been chatting with sells both.

 

Russian dealers are so 20th century.

Just buy it on Amazon FFS: https://smile.amazon.com/Images-SI-Uranium-Ore/dp/B000796XXM/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2X6ULNHYIQ44Q&dchild=1&keywords=uranium+ore&qid=1595350695&sprefix=uranium%2Caps%2C157&sr=8-1

 

Good news!  I was able to get in contact with a prince from Nigeria.  Wired him money to buy call options on Uranium.  He said he has both U-238, and U-235.  He said he would US mail me a confirmation.

[york]

Gold, silver, copper, and uranium.

 

Can I still be a value investor if these are my core holdings?

 

What precautions do you need to take to store/handle uranium?

 

 

Uranium investments get interesting once you reach critical mass.

 

You have to diversify to avoid the blow up.

 

It is a regulated material so you have to protect and secure it. 

I would suggest putting it in your right front pocket and at night sleeping with it under you pillow. ;)

 

I've found lead wool blankets (https://marshield.com/medical-shielding/lead-blankets/), but I can't seem to find lead pillow covers anywhere. Weird.

 

Too bad MarsMetal wasn't publicly traded...

[Jurgis]

Can you keep a cool head while everyone around you is supposedly getting rich fast?

 

Can I just get rich fast instead?

[rb]

Can you keep a cool head while everyone around you is supposedly getting rich fast?

 

Can I just get rich fast instead?

I don't know. Can you? If you figured the secret sauce please share. No need to post openly here if you don't want. You can also PM me. ;D

[Jurgis]

Can you keep a cool head while everyone around you is supposedly getting rich fast?

 

Can I just get rich fast instead?

I don't know. Can you? If you figured the secret sauce please share. No need to post openly here if you don't want. You can also PM me. ;D

 

If I knew the secret sauce, I'd be on a private island sipping mai tais and not posting on CoBF.

 

 

 

But then maybe I am and I'm just trolling you guys.  8)

 

 

 

Or maybe I'm a true value investor and I'm way too cheap for a private island.  ::)

[rb]

I'm a true cheap value investor but I would totally go for a private island, especially these days. That's why I was asking.  ;)

[Jurgis]

I'm a true cheap value investor but I would totally go for a private island, especially these days. That's why I was asking.  ;)

 

Eh, screw it, you're nice guy, so here's the secret sauce just for you: buy some momo stocks, when they go up, sell them. If they don't go up, don't buy them.

[Spekulatius]

I wonder about the difference between U-238 and U-235. I know it looks and tastes the same.

The Russian dealer I have been chatting with sells both.

 

Russian dealers are so 20th century.

Just buy it on Amazon FFS: https://smile.amazon.com/Images-SI-Uranium-Ore/dp/B000796XXM/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2X6ULNHYIQ44Q&dchild=1&keywords=uranium+ore&qid=1595350695&sprefix=uranium%2Caps%2C157&sr=8-1

 

Good news!  I was able to get in contact with a prince from Nigeria.  Wired him money to buy call options on Uranium.  He said he has both U-238, and U-235.  He said he would US mail me a confirmation.

 

I think we can find Uranium closer to home now - how about Ohio? It seems it’s not needed there any more. I wonder who the goto guy is now. Apparently “marketing” is done by politicians:

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/07/fbi-agents-deployed-to-ohio-house-speaker-larry-householders-farm-report.html

[rkbabang]

I'm a true cheap value investor but I would totally go for a private island, especially these days. That's why I was asking.  ;)

 

Eh, screw it, you're nice guy, so here's the secret sauce just for you: buy some momo stocks, when they go up, sell them. If they don't go up, don't buy them.

 

I knew it!  Rich enough to buy a private island, but too cheap to buy one, sitting in your little shack trolling us for years before revealing the secret sauce. You forgot to add "Follow me for more recipes".