Defense contractors

[Fly]

32 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Gemini inquiry bases on recent podcast/research

 

 

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How much Patriot and THAAD the gulf countries used in the recent war 

 

Contrast that with Ukraine usage of the patriot type since 2022

 

Contrast that with RTX / Lockheed production rate 

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Gemini speaks:

 

 

Recent reports from early 2026 indicate a staggering "consumption gap" between the high-intensity air defense operations in the Middle East and the sustained attrition warfare in Ukraine.

1. Gulf & Middle East Usage (Recent War)
The intensity of the conflict following the February 2026 strikes has seen a record expenditure of advanced interceptors.

 * Patriot (PAC-3 MSE): In just three days of the February 2026 escalation, an estimated 800 Patriot missiles were fired by U.S. and Gulf allies (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles and drone swarms.
 * THAAD: Reports indicate that roughly 25% of the total U.S. THAAD stockpile was expended during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025. In the current 2026 conflict, usage remains high, with at least 150–250 interceptors used in single salvos.

 * Total Cost: Estimates suggest Gulf countries and the U.S. have spent over $5.1 billion on interceptors in the opening weeks of the 2026 conflict alone.

2. Ukraine Usage (2022–2026)
President Zelensky recently highlighted a stark contrast: the Middle East used more Patriots in three days than Ukraine received in four years.
 * Total Deliveries: Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, Ukraine has received approximately 600 to 620 Patriot interceptors in total.
 * The Disparity: Ukraine’s entire four-year supply is roughly 25% less than what was consumed in the Middle East in a single 72-hour window.
 * Operational Constraints: Due to limited stocks, Ukraine has had to be extremely selective, often only engaging high-value ballistic threats (like the Kinzhal) while letting lower-tier drones or cruise missiles pass through if other systems (NASAMS/IRIS-T) are unavailable.

3. RTX & Lockheed Production Rates (2026 Status)
The industrial base is currently in a "break-glass" expansion mode to meet this demand, but lead times remain a bottleneck.

 

> Key Insight: The U.S. currently produces roughly 50 PAC-3 missiles per month. During the peak of the 2026 Gulf conflict, allies were firing nearly 260 missiles per day. This represents a consumption rate roughly 150 times higher than the replacement rate.
> 
Would you like me to look into the specific technical improvements being made to the PAC-3 MSE "hit-to-kill" software to better handle the terminal-phase maneuvers seen in the 2026 conflict?
 

 

There needs to be a cheaper and more scalable alternative solution. I am not sure what it may be, something reusable perhaps? Fixed mount laser type of defense? I am not sure, just trying to think of any different way to address this interceptor missile issue. US/ME allies are sending extremely expensive missiles to destroy much cheaper drones/missiles. 

[Xerxes]

8 minutes ago, Fly said:

 

There needs to be a cheaper and more scalable alternative solution. I am not sure what it may be, something reusable perhaps? Fixed mount laser type of defense? I am not sure, just trying to think of any different way to address this interceptor missile issue. US/ME allies are sending extremely expensive missiles to destroy much cheaper drones/missiles. 

Zelenskyy has already offered his $2,000 drone killer. Innovation comes with counter innovation.

 

Just the fact that more then 800 Patriot/THAAD were fired in 3-4 days than the entire Ukraine-Russian War by Ukraine is mind boggling. 

Edited March 24 by Xerxes

[Castanza]

10 minutes ago, Fly said:

 

There needs to be a cheaper and more scalable alternative solution. I am not sure what it may be, something reusable perhaps? Fixed mount laser type of defense? I am not sure, just trying to think of any different way to address this interceptor missile issue. US/ME allies are sending extremely expensive missiles to destroy much cheaper drones/missiles. 

Israel has the Iron Beam and I believe it’s the first time it’s been deployed. Not sure how effective it has been, but I know laser systems and effectiveness are highly dependent on weather conditions. 

[Fly]

On 3/24/2026 at 1:42 PM, Xerxes said:

Zelenskyy has already offered his $2,000 drone killer. Innovation comes with counter innovation.

 

Just the fact that more then 800 Patriot/THAAD were fired in 3-4 days than the entire Ukraine-Russian War by Ukraine is mind boggling. 

 

It also shows a serious flaw in the system. Bombard it with cheap drones/missiles for a few days to deplete the defenders then launch the real attack missiles. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-germany-agree-give-next-generation-fighter-fcas-one-last-chance/

 

Quote

The project, known as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), has stalled for months because of bitter disagreements between France's Dassault and Germany's Airbus Defence and Space, but French and German officials said Thursday they will try to reboot the program.

"They just can’t seem to agree. Our job is to ensure they reach an agreement, so we have jointly decided to launch an initiative to bring Airbus and Dassault closer together in the coming weeks," French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters ahead of a European Council meeting. "This must be done in a calm and respectful manner, precisely to identify areas of common ground."

Just constant bickering. Even if they agree to move forward, the French are likely to stifle the project throughout its course

[Saluki]

There's a crappy IPO of a Ukraine drone company that just went public. It allows one user to control multiple drones, if I recall. Valuation was outrageous. Maybe I'll do a post on it. 

 

There was a company I looked at in Australia, I don't recall the name, that had some drone jamming tech and some sales. The problem is that, besides the valuation, it's literally an arms race with jammers being overcome by new tech on the drones, then new jammers and other workarounds like fiber optic cable to guide the drones for several miles etc. 

[EgonKuhn]

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

There's a crappy IPO of a Ukraine drone company that just went public. It allows one user to control multiple drones, if I recall. Valuation was outrageous. Maybe I'll do a post on it. 

 

There was a company I looked at in Australia, I don't recall the name, that had some drone jamming tech and some sales. The problem is that, besides the valuation, it's literally an arms race with jammers being overcome by new tech on the drones, then new jammers and other workarounds like fiber optic cable to guide the drones for several miles etc. 

Guess you are talking about DRO.AX (DroneShield Ltd.) here?

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Fly said:

 

It also shows a serious flaw in the system. Bombard it with cheap drones/missiles for a few days to deplete the defenders then launch the real attack missiles. 

I think if China attacks Taiwan, they could saturate the sky with drones and the US would run out of ammo in a couple of days, which means everything on the island would be under threat in few days. The island would be hard to hold  with any military stronghold being constantly under fire.

 

Any supporting carrier strike group would bee to be several hundred mile away from the island to reduce exposure to cheaper drones and get more of a warning time to intercept those long range ones. 
 

I think China has an Enron ours capacity to produce so what lower tech drones because much of their industry is way more dual use than western economies with state owned enterprises etc.