Defense contractors

[anshulp]

Can't build the plane without Dassault! 

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 12/10/2025 at 3:56 PM, anshulp said:

Can't build the plane without Dassault! 

They can't?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/germany-ready-to-bury-fcas-jet-amid-scramble-to-save-program

 

Quote

German defense officials have floated the idea that Germany and Spain could team up with Sweden and its defense leader Saab AB.

“If this can be achieved more effectively with other partners, we should consider it,” Moeller said. “I believe that is the right approach,”

 

[anshulp]

21 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

They can't?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/germany-ready-to-bury-fcas-jet-amid-scramble-to-save-program

 

 

I didn't word that well - I will just just refer back to my Nov 11th post and clarify I mean France doesn't need Germany for the technical knowledge to build the plane, nor do the Swedes. Its only the money. Not a good spot to be in 

[Dalal.Holdings]

5 hours ago, anshulp said:

I didn't word that well - I will just just refer back to my Nov 11th post and clarify I mean France doesn't need Germany for the technical knowledge to build the plane, nor do the Swedes. Its only the money. Not a good spot to be in 

Does Airbus Defence and Space not have the knowhow to do it?

 

I also think the Germans can build up their own rival to SAAB/Dassault if they put enough time and money towards it. They already have the money. The country is a leader in advanced manufacturing and pioneered rockets and jet engines in the past.

[anshulp]

I believe the French and Spanish governments own more of Airbus then the Germans (FCAS alliance) . The whole statement I made was just a comment that I wouldn't want to be in Germany position - who is pretty left out right now for a future fighter. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 12/13/2025 at 7:34 PM, anshulp said:

I believe the French and Spanish governments own more of Airbus then the Germans (FCAS alliance) . The whole statement I made was just a comment that I wouldn't want to be in Germany position - who is pretty left out right now for a future fighter. 

It looks like German and French ownership of airbus is equivalent at about 10.8% each. Spain is 4%. It also seems like Airbus defense division has strong german roots & presence (HQ in Germany). I don't think Germans have a problem with Airbus having key role in FCAS.

 

Their problem is Dassault (wholly French) wanting an outsized role in the project. 

 

The problem here is the Germans have something the French don't have -- money. While the French might have a legacy in Fighter jets through Dassault, Germans can find it elsewhere and/or build it themselves given enough time

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

It looks like German and French ownership of airbus is equivalent at about 10.8% each. Spain is 4%. It also seems like Airbus defense division has strong german roots & presence (HQ in Germany). I don't think Germans have a problem with Airbus having key role in FCAS.

 

Their problem is Dassault (wholly French) wanting an outsized role in the project. 

 

The problem here is the Germans have something the French don't have -- money. While the French might have a legacy in Fighter jets through Dassault, Germans can find it elsewhere and/or build it themselves given enough time

It is my understanding based on reading newspapers, that India is happy to underwrite both engine and plane development in exchange for technology transfer.  France of course would be stupid to do it, better to partner with Airbus, but...

[Dalal.Holdings]

33 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

It is my understanding based on reading newspapers, that India is happy to underwrite both engine and plane development in exchange for technology transfer.  France of course would be stupid to do it, better to partner with Airbus, but...

It seems like other defense firms in Europe have already done this type of thing:

 

https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2025/12/06/the-south-korean-navy-has-launched-a-plan-to-modernize-its-kss-ii-submarines-which-are-based-on-tkmss-type-214-design/

 

German TKMS taught the South Koreans how to build subs and now they find themselves competing with the Koreans on the huge Canadian sub contract.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Reawakening after a long slumber. I think they can be militarily bigger than France some day…

 

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/navy-announces-new-warship-for-trumps-golden-fleet-b8e0e516

 

Navy Announces New Warship for Trump’s ‘Golden Fleet’

The new frigate, built by HII’s Ingalls Shipbuilding, is designed to counter threats from China and other adversaries

 

The U.S. Navy will commission a new class of frigates, the first in a series of warships that will make up President Trump’s envisioned “Golden Fleet.” 

 

The Navy chose HII’s Ingalls Shipbuilding to build the new ship, it announced Friday in a video posted on social media. The new ship will be based on the Coast Guard’s Legend-class National Security Cutter, which Ingalls builds in Pascagoula, Miss., and will replace the Constellation-class frigate that the Navy canceled last month after years of delays.

[lnofeisone]

Somewhat dated news but ManTech (does a lot of defense contracting like CACI) bought Elder to beef up their AI. Elder is a recognized leader but I suspect they struggled to scale from "small" to medium/large. ManTech is owned by a PE shop. 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Hektor said:

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/navy-announces-new-warship-for-trumps-golden-fleet-b8e0e516

 

Navy Announces New Warship for Trump’s ‘Golden Fleet’

The new frigate, built by HII’s Ingalls Shipbuilding, is designed to counter threats from China and other adversaries

 

The U.S. Navy will commission a new class of frigates, the first in a series of warships that will make up President Trump’s envisioned “Golden Fleet.” 

 

The Navy chose HII’s Ingalls Shipbuilding to build the new ship, it announced Friday in a video posted on social media. The new ship will be based on the Coast Guard’s Legend-class National Security Cutter, which Ingalls builds in Pascagoula, Miss., and will replace the Constellation-class frigate that the Navy canceled last month after years of delays.

It will be interesting if this goes better than the Constellation class. The Constellation class was based on the Fincanterie Frigate design, which is proven,  but the  modification were so expensive (including bulking up the size ) that the resulting design had little to do with the original design and that’s why the build progress was slow and the result expensive.

 

HII shipyards are old too but maybe they have planned this one better to the ships can be build quicker and cheaper. If not the navy shipbuilding program is in deep trouble as the carrier groups won’t have enough escort ships to protect them.

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-germany-everyone-is-a-defense-manufacturer-now-139ca922

In Germany, Everyone Is a Defense Manufacturer Now

Manufacturers scramble to reinvent themselves as military vendors to tap in to the country’s accelerated rearmament

Across Germany, railcar factories are being retooled to build military vehicles, auto suppliers are joining with defense contractors, and former soldiers are suddenly hot commodities in the jobs market.

 

After Berlin pledged to spend more than half a trillion dollars on defense in the next decade, manufacturers facing stubborn economic stagnation and falling exports to the U.S. and China are scrambling to reinvent themselves as military vendors.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hektor]

20 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It will be interesting if this goes better than the Constellation class. The Constellation class was based on the Fincanterie Frigate design, which is proven,  but the  modification were so expensive (including bulking up the size ) that the resulting design had little to do with the original design and that’s why the build progress was slow and the result expensive.

 

HII shipyards are old too but maybe they have planned this one better to the ships can be build quicker and cheaper. If not the navy shipbuilding program is in deep trouble as the carrier groups won’t have enough escort ships to protect them.

Time will tell. Nevertheless, this new order bodes well for HII, I think.

[Spekulatius]

21 hours ago, Hektor said:

Time will tell. Nevertheless, this new order bodes well for HII, I think.

Yes, I kept my few shares in my taxable account . They are a double in less than a year. The problem either HII has never been the TAM, it has been execution.

 

Their shipyards are somewhere between outdated and decrepit.

[Xerxes]

I listened Trump speech:

Trump-class Battleships !?! First two, and then maybe 10 but potentially 25. 
 

Reinvigorating the industrial base. 
 

Reference to “Victory at Sea” documentary with Spruance and Haley leading battle groups not from aircraft carrier but battleship 

 

Golden Fleet,,, ?! and nod to Roosevelt’ Great White Fleet ? But I keep thinking about Austin Powers. 

 

Defence contractor coming under pressure to change dividends/buyback capital allocation policy 

 

Implicit statements:

 

Monroe 2.0 doctrine in full display with Venezuela and Greenland. 
 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

37 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I listened Trump speech:

Trump-class Battleships !?! First two, and then maybe 10 but potentially 25. 
 

Reinvigorating the industrial base. 
 

Reference to “Victory at Sea” documentary with Spruance and Haley leading battle groups not from aircraft carrier but battleship 

 

Golden Fleet,,, ?! and nod to Roosevelt’ Great White Fleet ? But I keep thinking about Austin Powers. 

 

Defence contractor coming under pressure to change dividends/buyback capital allocation policy 

 

Implicit statements:

 

Monroe 2.0 doctrine in full display with Venezuela and Greenland. 
 

 

 

Trump is responding to China. That's it. U.S. core geopolitical priorities are now in the Indo-pacific.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-germany-everyone-is-a-defense-manufacturer-now-139ca922

 

Quote

In Germany, Everyone Is a Defense Manufacturer Now

 

The nice thing about European defense spending is that the idiots in Brussels cannot easily stand in the way as it is a core concern of the sovereign nation

 

 

Edited December 23, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Spekulatius]

13 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I listened Trump speech:

Trump-class Battleships !?! First two, and then maybe 10 but potentially 25. 
 

Reinvigorating the industrial base. 
 

Reference to “Victory at Sea” documentary with Spruance and Haley leading battle groups not from aircraft carrier but battleship 

 

Golden Fleet,,, ?! and nod to Roosevelt’ Great White Fleet ? But I keep thinking about Austin Powers. 

 

Defence contractor coming under pressure to change dividends/buyback capital allocation policy 

 

Implicit statements:

 

Monroe 2.0 doctrine in full display with Venezuela and Greenland. 
 

 

Battleships ? Golden Fleets? This is not the early 20th century any more. I don’t think large battleships make sense since a missile destroyer or a single airplane can take them down just like smaller ships.
 

@Xerxes is correct about Monroe doctrine. However, the earth is a pretty small place right now and Russian or Chinese or any other adverse nation’s ballistic missiles can reach the US in an hour or so.

 

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Battleships ? Golden Fleets? This is not the early 20th century any more. 

 

I think the word “battleship” is really nod to the fact that it will the most powerful surface vessel that is not an aircraft carrier. The pictures shown doesn’t have anything remotely “battleshipy” about it. 
 

It is effectively a larger version of what was Kirov-class “battlecruiser” in the dying days of the Soviet Union. Note that there was nothing “battlecruisy” about Kirov-class, either. 
 

Battleship and battlecruiser are old concept. With the latter sporting the guns of the former but thin armour of a cruiser.

 

Kirov and Trump class are just weapons platforms that serves to project ego and power, in that order. 

 

 

On the naming convention from wiki:

 

The Trump class name, would challenge the United States ship naming conventions —albeit unevenly applied— of naming aircraft carriers after Presidents and battleships after States. Nearly all of the service's current aircraft carriers are named after former commanders-in-chief, including the USS Gerald R. Ford

[Spekulatius]

On 12/23/2025 at 7:49 PM, Xerxes said:

I think the word “battleship” is really nod to the fact that it will the most powerful surface vessel that is not an aircraft carrier. The pictures shown doesn’t have anything remotely “battleshipy” about it. 
 

It is effectively a larger version of what was Kirov-class “battlecruiser” in the dying days of the Soviet Union. Note that there was nothing “battlecruisy” about Kirov-class, either. 
 

Battleship and battlecruiser are old concept. With the latter sporting the guns of the former but thin armour of a cruiser.

 

Kirov and Trump class are just weapons platforms that serves to project ego and power, in that order. 

 

 

On the naming convention from wiki:

 

The Trump class name, would challenge the United States ship naming conventions —albeit unevenly applied— of naming aircraft carriers after Presidents and battleships after States. Nearly all of the service's current aircraft carriers are named after former commanders-in-chief, including the USS Gerald R. Ford

Large ships need to protected by a cordon of smaller ships, or they just become juicy targets. Now the US hasn’t even been able to build the smaller ships (Frigates) so now they immediately start building two of these large Trump Battleships with future tech like rails guns etc.

 

Sounds like a recipe for an expensive disaster.

[Dalal.Holdings]

It has been over a decade since Crimea was taken... how many more wake up calls does Europe need:

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-must-unite-or-its-finished-poland-donald-tusk-warns-us-donald-trump-salivates-over-greenland/

 

Quote

Tusk, a pro-European centrist, wrote on social media Monday that Europe won’t be taken “seriously” if it is “weak and divided: neither enemy nor ally.”  

“It is already clear now. We must finally believe in our own strength, we must continue to arm ourselves, we must stay united like never before,” he said. “One for all, and all for one. Otherwise, we are finished.” 

 

[anshulp]

Big increase if it happens

 

 

 

[coffeecaninvestor]

BAH is down more than 10% today after getting $21M in contracts with the Treasury canceled. My initial thoughts were to buy since the contract is so small relative to the market cap losses, and they just reported a little more optimistic outlook for 2026, but It worries me a little longer if BAH may be in the penalty box in a really tough environment on the Civil side of their business. 

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/26/trump-tax-records-treasury-cancels-booz-allen-contracts.html

 

https://investors.boozallen.com/financial-information#block--views-blockwidget-bundled-content-block-1--5871

 

[Xerxes]

Gemini inquiry bases on recent podcast/research

 

 

————-

How much Patriot and THAAD the gulf countries used in the recent war 

 

Contrast that with Ukraine usage of the patriot type since 2022

 

Contrast that with RTX / Lockheed production rate 

—————-

Gemini speaks:

 

 

Recent reports from early 2026 indicate a staggering "consumption gap" between the high-intensity air defense operations in the Middle East and the sustained attrition warfare in Ukraine.

1. Gulf & Middle East Usage (Recent War)
The intensity of the conflict following the February 2026 strikes has seen a record expenditure of advanced interceptors.

 * Patriot (PAC-3 MSE): In just three days of the February 2026 escalation, an estimated 800 Patriot missiles were fired by U.S. and Gulf allies (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles and drone swarms.
 * THAAD: Reports indicate that roughly 25% of the total U.S. THAAD stockpile was expended during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025. In the current 2026 conflict, usage remains high, with at least 150–250 interceptors used in single salvos.

 * Total Cost: Estimates suggest Gulf countries and the U.S. have spent over $5.1 billion on interceptors in the opening weeks of the 2026 conflict alone.

2. Ukraine Usage (2022–2026)
President Zelensky recently highlighted a stark contrast: the Middle East used more Patriots in three days than Ukraine received in four years.
 * Total Deliveries: Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, Ukraine has received approximately 600 to 620 Patriot interceptors in total.
 * The Disparity: Ukraine’s entire four-year supply is roughly 25% less than what was consumed in the Middle East in a single 72-hour window.
 * Operational Constraints: Due to limited stocks, Ukraine has had to be extremely selective, often only engaging high-value ballistic threats (like the Kinzhal) while letting lower-tier drones or cruise missiles pass through if other systems (NASAMS/IRIS-T) are unavailable.

3. RTX & Lockheed Production Rates (2026 Status)
The industrial base is currently in a "break-glass" expansion mode to meet this demand, but lead times remain a bottleneck.

 

> Key Insight: The U.S. currently produces roughly 50 PAC-3 missiles per month. During the peak of the 2026 Gulf conflict, allies were firing nearly 260 missiles per day. This represents a consumption rate roughly 150 times higher than the replacement rate.
> 
Would you like me to look into the specific technical improvements being made to the PAC-3 MSE "hit-to-kill" software to better handle the terminal-phase maneuvers seen in the 2026 conflict?