BG2008 Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 All the trading and price discovery is done in the last 30 minutes of the day. What's it gonna be today?
ERICOPOLY Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 I'm wondering whether WFC can actually fall LESS than SPY today. I've got SPY down 10% and WFC down 9% at present.
Guest Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 Trump needs to do a new press conference. He said he could do them 5x a day to make the market do what it did on Friday. Why isn't he doing it? Does he not love us? He said he did! :'(
Guest Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 Blew right through the low of the day. These last 30 mins really are crazy. Might regret saying this but I was a net buyer today. :-X
chrispy Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 I haven't confirmed this but it seems like if the indices are negative or pos at 3pm they will skyrocket in the same direction by 4
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 I haven't confirmed this but it seems like if the indices are negative or pos at 3pm they will skyrocket in the same direction by 4 It does seem that way on most days.
rb Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 I haven't confirmed this but it seems like if the indices are negative or pos at 3pm they will skyrocket in the same direction by 4 Yeah, at the end of the day it's indexes buying or selling. So days movements will be amplified. It's definitely dumb trading. But that's not their job. Their job is to minimize tracking error and that's how it's done. Profit at will.
Spekulatius Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 I haven't confirmed this but it seems like if the indices are negative or pos at 3pm they will skyrocket in the same direction by 4 I kind of agree, but I think the time is 15:30pm when the mindless algos set in. I bet Renaissance Tech makes a fortune in this market.
pterhx Posted March 17, 2020 Posted March 17, 2020 Here's a theory that variance swaps have increased end of day volatility because dealers are hedging: ZeroHedge doesn't have the best credibility, so I'm curious what others think of that theory.
ERICOPOLY Posted March 17, 2020 Posted March 17, 2020 Trump needs to do a new press conference. He said he could do them 5x a day to make the market do what it did on Friday. Why isn't he doing it? Does he not love us? He said he did! :'( He did hold one today. When he got to the part about staying this way until August, market took a dive. This late day volatility happens when Trump opens his mouth.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 17, 2020 Posted March 17, 2020 Here's a theory that variance swaps have increased end of day volatility because dealers are hedging: ZeroHedge doesn't have the best credibility, so I'm curious what others think of that theory. They have a pretty good track record on explaining the underlying plumbing of the financial system that we all ignore. Just take the end of world predictions that come with every article with a massive grain of salt.
LC Posted March 18, 2020 Posted March 18, 2020 Mr. Market either caught COVID-19 or has been taking meth.
rb Posted March 18, 2020 Posted March 18, 2020 That was definitely some meth level shit! The whole market went up like 4%? Some stuff like EPD went from -18 to -2!
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 18, 2020 Posted March 18, 2020 Well that was WEIRD AS FUCK!!! Agreed. Was getting excited what the last 30 minutes would hold after we were down 7%....
james22 Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 In this type of market, it’s important to watch how equity prices trade all the way to market close to get a sense of how many leveraged investors need to raise collateral to satisfy their margins with their prime brokers. Often during the depths of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the equity market would appear to stabilize 20 to 30 minutes before close, only to see the indexes drop precipitously over the last 15 minutes of trading. This happened because hedge fund managers waited until the end of the day to get the most accurate calculation of just how much cash they needed to raise before the markets closed, and then liquidated what they could to raise enough cash to meet collateral calls. This type of end-of-day market action has already occurred several times during the COVID-19 crisis. Once the leveraged funds are shaken out of their positions and forced selling begins to decrease, we expect a substantial amount of market volatility to subside. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/973164/even-safe-haven-assets-are-feeling-the-pressure
Kaegi2011 Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 In this type of market, it’s important to watch how equity prices trade all the way to market close to get a sense of how many leveraged investors need to raise collateral to satisfy their margins with their prime brokers. Often during the depths of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the equity market would appear to stabilize 20 to 30 minutes before close, only to see the indexes drop precipitously over the last 15 minutes of trading. This happened because hedge fund managers waited until the end of the day to get the most accurate calculation of just how much cash they needed to raise before the markets closed, and then liquidated what they could to raise enough cash to meet collateral calls. This type of end-of-day market action has already occurred several times during the COVID-19 crisis. Once the leveraged funds are shaken out of their positions and forced selling begins to decrease, we expect a substantial amount of market volatility to subside. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/973164/even-safe-haven-assets-are-feeling-the-pressure Interesting. Thanks for posting!
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