Investor20 Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 Very funny that you ask for evidence for masks (there is substantial evidence in the literature) but then claim that 90% of people are wearing masks (with no evidence). Because some were very sure if only everyone wears masks, the covid 19 will disappear. They say its our ""best defense" against Covid. I am only pointing out that even after over 90% are wearing the mask, masks being mandated in Europe and Ontario, big spikes and lockdowns are still there. I just hope masks are not in fact our best defense.
Cigarbutt Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 ... What we should demand from CDC is evidence, not pronouncements. @Investor20 What's your opinion about the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons? Are you a member? ... ----- This whole discussion about masks as a potential variable among many variables is seeing parallel developments in severe Covid survival data. There have been recent works published (solid data, peer-reviewed etc) from the New York (Langone) and UK experiences. If one accepts the three sub-waves definition, results from people reaching hospitals in the second wave were better (better survival) and it looks like this trend is continuing into the third wave although it is still too early to tell for this last one. This article covers the basics and i've looked at the underlying data: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/medical/death-rates-have-dropped-for-seriously-ill-covid-patients/ar-BB1avfbY?ocid=msedgntp The data shows that the improvement is only partially explained by the younger cohorts affected after the first phase. The data supports the hypothesis that there were no silver bullets. In the UK, the data reflects the introduction of 'new' treatments (as part of the Recovery Trial) and the NY data suggests a similar phenomenon but most of the improvement came from a better assembly of many small things (timely interventions, protocols based on sequential and shared learning, liberal use of steroids at the right stage (dexamethasone has been known for ages in the use against inflammatory respiratory distress), more dedicated use of blood thinners etc). Singling out how a specific aspect of the treatment improvements would be very difficult to delineate at this point and it may take a while to figure out but the improvement in survival has been impressive (clearly, we are on the right track). But the wheel has not been reinvented here, people have just learned to make it roll better. Some suggest (hypothesis) that people survive better because of the use of masks because a coherent link can be made between using masks and viral loads which have been clearly shown to be significant for disease severity. It's an interesting hypothesis and, frankly, wearing a mask is more comfortable than having a breathing tube down one's throat. A relatively negative aspect of this development is that there are more people fighting harder and longer for survival and, in some centers, that is resulting in longer hospital and intensive care unit stays, with obvious consequences for those waiting for care unrelated to Covid and this can be an acute problem when hospital capacity becomes a limiting factor. It's been shown (for Covid and other ailments) that acute episodes of excessive hospital disease burden can result in poorer results for all involved. Somehow, the Graham concept of margin of safety applies elsewhere also.
Investor20 Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 ... What we should demand from CDC is evidence, not pronouncements. @Investor20 What's your opinion about the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons? Are you a member? ... ----- This whole discussion about masks as a potential variable among many variables is seeing parallel developments in severe Covid survival data. There have been recent works published (solid data, peer-reviewed etc) from the New York (Langone) and UK experiences. If one accepts the three sub-waves definition, results from people reaching hospitals in the second wave were better (better survival) and it looks like this trend is continuing into the third wave although it is still too early to tell for this last one. This article covers the basics and i've looked at the underlying data: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/medical/death-rates-have-dropped-for-seriously-ill-covid-patients/ar-BB1avfbY?ocid=msedgntp The data shows that the improvement is only partially explained by the younger cohorts affected after the first phase. The data supports the hypothesis that there were no silver bullets. In the UK, the data reflects the introduction of 'new' treatments (as part of the Recovery Trial) and the NY data suggests a similar phenomenon but most of the improvement came from a better assembly of many small things (timely interventions, protocols based on sequential and shared learning, liberal use of steroids at the right stage (dexamethasone has been known for ages in the use against inflammatory respiratory distress), more dedicated use of blood thinners etc). Singling out how a specific aspect of the treatment improvements would be very difficult to delineate at this point and it may take a while to figure out but the improvement in survival has been impressive (clearly, we are on the right track). But the wheel has not been reinvented here, people have just learned to make it roll better. Some suggest (hypothesis) that people survive better because of the use of masks because a coherent link can be made between using masks and viral loads which have been clearly shown to be significant for disease severity. It's an interesting hypothesis and, frankly, wearing a mask is more comfortable than having a breathing tube down one's throat. A relatively negative aspect of this development is that there are more people fighting harder and longer for survival and, in some centers, that is resulting in longer hospital and intensive care unit stays, with obvious consequences for those waiting for care unrelated to Covid and this can be an acute problem when hospital capacity becomes a limiting factor. It's been shown (for Covid and other ailments) that acute episodes of excessive hospital disease burden can result in poorer results for all involved. Somehow, the Graham concept of margin of safety applies elsewhere also. Yes CFR has gone down. That could be because of virus itself attenuating. I dont have citation but the concept I read is the virus mutation that causes less severe disease spreads more than the virus mutation that causes more severe disease since the person who has more severe symptoms would quarantine irrespective of any mandates and it is the asymptomatic person who would go around more spreading the virus. Yes it may be because of better treatments except not many clinical studies I am aware showing positive results of treatment of hospitalized patients (except Dexamethasone may be). Regarding the inoculation level, I posted an article by several doctors from many top medical schools across US and world saying it works other way round. That the masks increase inoculation of infection at early stages. This is disputed area of research. Please see below Reduction of Self-Reinoculation It is well-recognized that COVID-19 exists outside the human body in a bioaerosol of airborne particles and droplets. Because exhaled air in an infected person is considered to be “loaded” with inoculum, each exhalation and inhalation is effectively reinoculation.15 In patients who are hospitalized, negative pressure is applied to the room air largely to reduce spread outside of the room. We propose that fresh air could reduce reinoculation and potentially reduce the severity of illness and possibly reduce household spread during quarantine. This calls for open windows, fans for aeration, or spending long periods of time outdoors away from others with no face covering to disperse and not reinhale the viral bioaerosol. https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(20)30673-2/fulltext#seccesectitle0005
Peregrine Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 I think anti-masking has become ideological just like how much of this debate has evolved. I think it's rather silly to object too much - it's a fairly small inconvenience with some possible benefits (if not reducing transmission then maybe reducing viral load) and none of the massive collateral damage that comes with lockdowns. I think the consensus gradually focusing on masking and moving away from lockdowns is a good thing on balance. It is not objecting to masks Frank. But pro-maskers were saying if only every one wears masks Covid disappears. Even CDC director said that - masks are more important than vaccine. CDC director said "masks are our best defence". If masks are our best defence and are better than vaccine, we are doomed. Because mask mandates have been tried in many places and masks are worn by above 90% people and yet there are big spikes in infections. The best defense is not working. Coming back to whether masks are better than not wearing, not everyone agrees on this. For example as per this article Reduction of Self-Reinoculation It is well-recognized that COVID-19 exists outside the human body in a bioaerosol of airborne particles and droplets. Because exhaled air in an infected person is considered to be “loaded” with inoculum, each exhalation and inhalation is effectively reinoculation..... We propose that fresh air could reduce reinoculation and potentially reduce the severity of illness and possibly reduce household spread during quarantine. This calls for open windows, fans for aeration, or spending long periods of time outdoors away from others with no face covering to disperse and not reinhale the viral bioaerosol. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7410805/ This article is written by some of the top doctors including Baylor, Johns Hopkins, Emory, Yale....and many more.... There is one randomized study that is cited by anti-maskers which is https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577.short This study does not have an arm of not wearing mask and it is not with Covid 19. It compares "Hospital wards were randomised to: medical masks, cloth masks or a control group (usual practice, which included mask wearing). Participants used the mask on every shift for 4 consecutive weeks." What we need are proper studies which are lacking. That is why I keep asking what is your evidence? There is no evidence. Only arguments and pronouncements. Now I am not going to tell you whether CDC director is correct (Masks are our best defence in which case we already lost because our best defence has been tried many places) or all these doctors are correct that re-innoculation of virus is bad and will lead to more severe disease. What we should demand from CDC is evidence, not pronouncements. Yes, I'm aware that the clinical evidence of mask effectiveness has not been particularly strong yet. But practically speaking, it's a minor inconvenience with low trade-offs - which is one reason why I think the public health messaging has shifted from lockdowns to masking. I don't think it's particularly helpful to get into the righteousness of all this stuff when people's lives have been upended to such a degree - we should be focusing on practicality.
Spekulatius Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Pretty typical microcosm of what is happening: https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/10/28/why-did-massachusetts-shut-down-ice-rinks-charlie-baker-says-blame-the-adults Massachusetts announced last Thursday that it was shutting down indoor ice rinks for two weeks, after more than 30 coronavirus clusters across the state were linked to hockey leagues. Other states, including Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, have taken similar action following their own hockey-related COVID-19 outbreaks. But according to Gov. Charlie Baker, hockey itself isn’t necessarily the threat. Rather, the transmission of the virus is “likely coming from all the activity around hockey and some irresponsible behavior from parents and coaches,”
Investor20 Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Yes, I'm aware that the clinical evidence of mask effectiveness has not been particularly strong yet. But practically speaking, it's a minor inconvenience with low trade-offs - which is one reason why I think the public health messaging has shifted from lockdowns to masking. I don't think it's particularly helpful to get into the righteousness of all this stuff when people's lives have been upended to such a degree - we should be focusing on practicality. Frank, I agree with the sentiment here. If we are aware that many of these dont have good research to back up and we are cautious about it, we are better off IMO. Personally I like the below Korean guidelines, but dont want to say I ask anyone else to do the same. I feel ventilation and distancing has better research so, the way they put it I like it better. One addition is (Koreans when they use a mask, they mostly use K95 mask), when I go to a shop or indoors with little ventilation, I use K95 mask because I dont believe that cloth masks do the job with small particles in the air indoors. But K95 masks are difficult to wear all the time, so I do that mostly indoors only such as shops and minimize my time there. Also, I feel indoor clusters are more important as discussed earlier in this thread. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/south-korea-office-coronavirus-covid19-work-enviroment/ Provide a well-ventilated, spacious area for the meeting and be sure to ventilate before the meeting. Take a break every hour to ventilate the space by opening doors and windows. Maintain a distance of two meters between every attendee (minimum one meter). If this cannot be met, refrain from meeting in person. If the meeting is still necessary, ensure every attendee wears a mask, even when speaking. Masks are up to personal discretion if ventilation and distancing can be followed.
Gregmal Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Pretty typical microcosm of what is happening: https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/10/28/why-did-massachusetts-shut-down-ice-rinks-charlie-baker-says-blame-the-adults Massachusetts announced last Thursday that it was shutting down indoor ice rinks for two weeks, after more than 30 coronavirus clusters across the state were linked to hockey leagues. Other states, including Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, have taken similar action following their own hockey-related COVID-19 outbreaks. But according to Gov. Charlie Baker, hockey itself isn’t necessarily the threat. Rather, the transmission of the virus is “likely coming from all the activity around hockey and some irresponsible behavior from parents and coaches,” Again, the fallacy of CASES! OMG! What a disaster...these people are total idiots. As I posted earlier...UF GAME CANCELLED BECAUSE OF COVID OUTBREAK......(tiny print) All 21 players are either asymptotic or show minor symptoms... Can we please create some place where a certain percentage of the population lives where there are high taxes, shutdowns every time one catches the flu. and absurd rules around things like soda, plastic bags and police officers doing their jobs...and another where there are no taxes, and people just live their lives??
RichardGibbons Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Can we please create some place where a certain percentage of the population lives where there are high taxes, shutdowns every time one catches the flu. and absurd rules around things like soda, plastic bags and police officers doing their jobs...and another where there are no taxes, and people just live their lives?? This would be a neat experiment to run. I think for now, the countries that would best meet your criteria are probably Denmark for the former and Somalia for the latter.
Gregmal Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 I guess we've come full circle. America was established by a bunch of folks tired of outrageous taxes, constant persecution for their beliefs, and overreaching governments....self governing I believe was the major theme. Now look at us!
Spekulatius Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Pretty typical microcosm of what is happening: https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/10/28/why-did-massachusetts-shut-down-ice-rinks-charlie-baker-says-blame-the-adults Massachusetts announced last Thursday that it was shutting down indoor ice rinks for two weeks, after more than 30 coronavirus clusters across the state were linked to hockey leagues. Other states, including Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, have taken similar action following their own hockey-related COVID-19 outbreaks. But according to Gov. Charlie Baker, hockey itself isn’t necessarily the threat. Rather, the transmission of the virus is “likely coming from all the activity around hockey and some irresponsible behavior from parents and coaches,” Again, the fallacy of CASES! OMG! What a disaster...these people are total idiots. As I posted earlier...UF GAME CANCELLED BECAUSE OF COVID OUTBREAK......(tiny print) All 21 players are either asymptotic or show minor symptoms... Can we please create some place where a certain percentage of the population lives where there are high taxes, shutdowns every time one catches the flu. and absurd rules around things like soda, plastic bags and police officers doing their jobs...and another where there are no taxes, and people just live their lives?? If you read the article - one of the main reason for the shutdown is that the coaches fail to cooperate with the contact tracers and even went to so far to told the team to ignore calls from contact tracers. So it is likely that more clusters were created by these activities that we don’t know about. Our governor Charlie Baker is Republican.
KCLarkin Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 “All the self-delusion has been self-defeating, as in a kind of tragic irony, the pursuit of each aim has led to its defeat.” https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the-west-has-failed-us-and-europe-have-made-a-mess-of-handling-the-crisis-1.4395473
Gregmal Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Governor Goldman, back at it! https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/nj-gov-on-a-covid-19-lockdown-if-we-have-to-shut-the-whole-place-down-we-will-205402414.html “This is real. People are dying,” --- This is life. People die every day Philip....but its a great campaign soundbite.
Cigarbutt Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 ... Yes CFR has gone down. That could be because of virus itself attenuating. I dont have citation but the concept I read is the virus mutation that causes less severe disease spreads more than the virus mutation that causes more severe disease since the person who has more severe symptoms would quarantine irrespective of any mandates and it is the asymptomatic person who would go around more spreading the virus. Yes it may be because of better treatments except not many clinical studies I am aware showing positive results of treatment of hospitalized patients (except Dexamethasone may be). Regarding the inoculation level, I posted an article by several doctors from many top medical schools across US and world saying it works other way round. That the masks increase inoculation of infection at early stages. This is disputed area of research. Please see below ... Reduction of Self-Reinoculation ... ---The attenuating theory is possible but does not fit with present data for the following reasons: -coronaviruses are not recognized for unusually high mutation rates -genomic follow-up studies have not consistently shown changes in correlation with significant changes in contagiousness or virulence -the Italian studies published around June that suggested this phenomenon were of poor quality and confounded improved levels of care and seasonality with virus attenuation (present trends also discredit those theories) -the extent of survival rates and time frame (just a few weeks) simply don't fit with an attenuating virus: From the NY Langone team study ---The self-inoculation theory is possible but very unlikely and, even if 'right', unlikely to be significant. The reasons are numerous and include coherence, disease transmission mechanisms etc. ----- @Investor20 Thank you for the ideas that can be (IMO) characterized as unconventional. i feel that the communication between us is sometimes deficient and i take full responsibility for it. The ideas that you suggest make me consider alternative theories. When reading your posts, i'm reminded of what happened with the inoculation controversy that happened in Boston in the early 1720s when a group (mostly led by religious characters) were pushing for self-inoculation of the smallpox virus in order to decrease individual and population harm. This group was resisted by various scientific and established dogma groups. There were even unconstructive personal attacks and of course, the tribal crowd got involved, making matters even more complicated. Still, in that specific case, the group pushing for self-inoculation was right and even if there were risks with their approach which included unnecessary deaths, they had the most solid experimental thought process and were eventually proven right. Even decades later when Mr. Jenner 'invented' vaccines (from a cow related disease, cow=vacca--)vaccine), the initial reactions from the establishment were negative and even derisive. Contrarians are not always wrong. :) Edit: for spelling mistakes
Gregmal Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 I was looking at various covid tracker sites and have yet to find one that counts the number of small business fatalities, or the ones in critical condition. Unlike people, these are generally not asymptomatic. The jobs lost are huge, and the consequences on families is real. In the beginning, there were people making the case that the shutdowns didnt cause this, but rather people not wanting to go out did. This has been shown to be utterly false. An open economy will do better than a closed one. This isn't even debatable. I dont want to make too big a deal of the economic rebound, because just like it was preposterous to go shouting about "OMG worst numbers since Great Depression!" when duh, its obvious thats whats going to happen when you force businesses to close, but its worth noting that when things are allowed to remain open they can do OK. This now seems to be consensus, outside of a few like Jurgis in the other thread thinking that unlike every other profession, teachers will just drop dead the second they go back to the classroom like its an M. Night Shyamalan movie. Will there be a point when people hold politicians accountable for shutdowns? The election has basically come down to voting on shutdowns and subsequent handouts. How disrespectful to the people who have fought for our freedoms, that folks now give them away to their local politicians in exchange for some stimulus money. Land of the free no more.
KCLarkin Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Greg, the nice thing about self-delusion is that you get to ignore any facts you don’t like. But in the real world, countries have tried your approach and it failed. Countries that acted aggressively have succeeded in reopening safely (or avoiding lockdowns in the first wave). Nobody wants this second round of lockdowns. They are forced upon places that didn’t do the work to put other containment strategies in place.
Gregmal Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 The nice thing about this thread is(barring the editors) its all documented. You have consistently danced from one "example" of "success" to the next and consistently exaggerated the severity of the "virus". Europe was the example, then they weren't. China "cant be believed", now "they did it the right way"...NY was peculiarly, "the example" but when they go back into lockdown you find some "flaw" that now moves to why some other place is your current example. Pretty amusing. Its like going month to month talking about who the best investor in the world is and why they are successful based on a monthly return figure.....Orthopa's post, #8015 pretty much sums up everything. Shutting places down because of rising case numbers is retarded and will have consequences. People want nothing to do with this...outside of the extreme liberals who want the politicians to control everything.
RichardGibbons Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 I was looking at various covid tracker sites and have yet to find one that counts the number of small business fatalities, or the ones in critical condition. While the broad rhetoric of this post doesn't make much sense to me, this is a fantastic idea. Does anyone know if there's some way to get something like "excess business deaths"? That would certainly be a useful data point. I'm guessing it might not be possible because when businesses die, there's not nearly the same amount of rigor involved in documenting that bankruptcy as we would with a human death. Maybe we can get approximate numbers at the end of 2021 based on 2020 tax filings? Any other ideas or anything I'm missing?
KCLarkin Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 You have consistently danced from one "example" of "success" to the next and consistently exaggerated the severity of the "virus". Greg, this is 100% false but lying about my opinions helps feed your delusion. The "success" countries include Vietnam, SK, Japan, Singapore, NZ. With one or two minor exceptions, the list has stayed the same since March. People want nothing to do with this...outside of the extreme liberals who want the politicians to control everything. The virus doesn't care about what the people think. Ask Boris Johnson.
rb Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 I was looking at various covid tracker sites and have yet to find one that counts the number of small business fatalities, or the ones in critical condition. While the broad rhetoric of this post doesn't make much sense to me, this is a fantastic idea. Does anyone know if there's some way to get something like "excess business deaths"? That would certainly be a useful data point. I'm guessing it might not be possible because when businesses die, there's not nearly the same amount of rigor involved in documenting that bankruptcy as we would with a human death. Maybe we can get approximate numbers at the end of 2021 based on 2020 tax filings? Any other ideas or anything I'm missing? I would say that it would be pretty hard to do that independently in North America where a lot of the company information is private. One way to do part of it I guess it's through the number of bankruptcy fillings. Though that will miss the companies that shut down and wind up voluntarily. It would be much easier to do in countries with a "companies house" where you can find data on all companies even if that data has a big time lag.
KCLarkin Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Physdude makes an excellent point. Almost nobody is talking about Vietnam. A country with 90MM people and 0 Covid deaths. Europe and the Americas failed to control the virus. And they paid the price with heavy lockdowns, deaths, and staggering economic and social costs. Greg, lying about my opinions is part of your delusion.
orthopa Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 cant believe how stupid we are Classic. Xenophobic rant when called out for using misleading stats. Hey Dickie you weren't in charge of that French track and trace program were ya?
orthopa Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 “All the self-delusion has been self-defeating, as in a kind of tragic irony, the pursuit of each aim has led to its defeat.” https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the-west-has-failed-us-and-europe-have-made-a-mess-of-handling-the-crisis-1.4395473 Now its the US and Europes' fault. Great, just great. Your making Dalal look bad now after his summer pronouncements.
Gregmal Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Interesting, a country with 90M people and 0 deaths...1, do you really believe that? 2, are you aware of cultural differences/effects? 3, is it possible that the virus just isn't as deadly as it was when NY/NJ/MA and Lombardi were doing their thing? As for the whole "the virus doesnt care" thing....this is just further part of the problem of giving this thing superpowers and all sorts of scary personalities hoping to whip up a frenzy....The flu doesnt care, chicken pox doesnt care either. Neither does HIV, and after asking, neither does peanut butter. We dont stop the world and usurp peoples freedoms and livelihoods for any of them. As someone mentioned in another thread, pretty soon you are gonna see the teachers unions pushing to make school hybrid/remote every year, during flu season. Because the flu can be pretty nasty too.
KCLarkin Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 Interesting, a country with 90M people and 0 deaths... My point wasn’t about Vietnam. It was about you blatantly lying when you said I considered Europe a successful model. And if it is so easy for you to lie about my positions when there is a written record, how easy is it to lie to yourself?
Gregmal Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 If I got your take wrong, I apologize. At least you didnt counter with "bbbut 225k deaths!". However my recollection is that you've been ultra critical of the US specifically(without calling out the worst offenders like NY/NJ/MA), and spent time justifying lockdowns and draconian government power grabs. Which under no circumstance, given the data we have now, are warranted.
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