Coronavirus

[Read the Footnotes]

Based on how well COVID is controlled, Dr. Dalal Holdings should move to China and enjoy President Xi's governance.  ;)

BTW China just had a big celebration yesterday regarding how well they controlled COVID vs the rest of the world, and awarded a few top doctors and policy makers for that. You just can't stop winning there. ;)

 

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting...  :-X

 

The herd immunity hypothesis is not broken. Georgia, FL, TX have all reopened and cases continued to trend down. NY reopened some restaurants and look stable so far.

WA, CA's total cases/ population is only half the ratio of GA, FL, TX etc so I think they will get a new wave once they reopen.

I do not have time to track all 50 states.

 

What part do you see that makes you think herd immunity hypothesis is at risk?

I think your terminology is broken, though maybe not your thesis? I have asked before, how do you define herd immunity? You seem to have a non-standard definition.

[Read the Footnotes]

A little piece of advice to Dalal Holdings and others, Ed Secoda has a famous saying "Everybody gets what they wanted in the market". If you have myopia and laser focus on the bad side of COVID and how terrible Trump is, you will not be able to make the right calls on the market. (Same advice to die hard Trump supporters who only focus on the good things of COVID) You still get what you wanted -- endless entertainment from the most entertaining president of the US. But if you are serious about the stock market, you have to give up the exciting and entertaining portion of this process.

I've talked to really successful investors periodically and they are really smart and really humble. I don't see anyone of them who is ignorant and really proud of being ignorant.  ;)

 

Muscle, this is the most productive post I have seen from you in months. The only thing I don't agree with is that some of the people who are down on Trump or are very concerned about COVID have not sold any stock and/or have been adding aggressively and selectively. The idea that people who think that Trump is unnecessarily killing US citizens and that this is NOT going to go away by Easter and that it is NOT as hoax, must be selling out of their positions and going to cash is just wrong. In fact I don't personally know any members of this board who report to have done that although there have been many accusations fearful selling lobbed in this thread and in the politics section, those accusations are likely off base.

[muscleman]

Based on how well COVID is controlled, Dr. Dalal Holdings should move to China and enjoy President Xi's governance.  ;)

BTW China just had a big celebration yesterday regarding how well they controlled COVID vs the rest of the world, and awarded a few top doctors and policy makers for that. You just can't stop winning there. ;)

 

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting...  :-X

 

The herd immunity hypothesis is not broken. Georgia, FL, TX have all reopened and cases continued to trend down. NY reopened some restaurants and look stable so far.

WA, CA's total cases/ population is only half the ratio of GA, FL, TX etc so I think they will get a new wave once they reopen.

I do not have time to track all 50 states.

 

What part do you see that makes you think herd immunity hypothesis is at risk?

I think your terminology is broken, though maybe not your thesis? I have asked before, how do you define herd immunity? You seem to have a non-standard definition.

 

Herd immunity = 80% + population immune to the virus. Therefore if society is open and the daily new cases continue to trend down, that's sign of herd immunity. It is not equal to 0 daily cases every day, unless 100% of population has immunity.

 

There are lots of infections with no symptoms and probably a lot of people who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell has strong reaction to it. So it is naive to use the confirmed total cases to divide the US population and require that to be greater than 80%.

 

[muscleman]

A little piece of advice to Dalal Holdings and others, Ed Secoda has a famous saying "Everybody gets what they wanted in the market". If you have myopia and laser focus on the bad side of COVID and how terrible Trump is, you will not be able to make the right calls on the market. (Same advice to die hard Trump supporters who only focus on the good things of COVID) You still get what you wanted -- endless entertainment from the most entertaining president of the US. But if you are serious about the stock market, you have to give up the exciting and entertaining portion of this process.

I've talked to really successful investors periodically and they are really smart and really humble. I don't see anyone of them who is ignorant and really proud of being ignorant.  ;)

 

Muscle, this is the most productive post I have seen from you in months. The only thing I don't agree with is that some of the people who are down on Trump or are very concerned about COVID have not sold any stock and/or have been adding aggressively and selectively. The idea that people who think that Trump is unnecessarily killing US citizens and that this is NOT going to go away by Easter and that it is NOT as hoax, must be selling out of their positions and going to cash is just wrong. In fact I don't personally know any members of this board who report to have done that although there have been many accusations fearful selling lobbed in this thread and in the politics section, those accusations are likely off base.

 

You have probably missed my prior posts. I was calling for a major top in the end of August. You may go back and read my posts in the end of August for my reasoning.

 

There is no linear relationship between COVID improving -> buying stocks or COVID terrible -> selling stocks. People who think that way need to spend more time learning.

 

[Read the Footnotes]

A little piece of advice to Dalal Holdings and others, Ed Secoda has a famous saying "Everybody gets what they wanted in the market". If you have myopia and laser focus on the bad side of COVID and how terrible Trump is, you will not be able to make the right calls on the market. (Same advice to die hard Trump supporters who only focus on the good things of COVID) You still get what you wanted -- endless entertainment from the most entertaining president of the US. But if you are serious about the stock market, you have to give up the exciting and entertaining portion of this process.

I've talked to really successful investors periodically and they are really smart and really humble. I don't see anyone of them who is ignorant and really proud of being ignorant.  ;)

 

Muscle, this is the most productive post I have seen from you in months. The only thing I don't agree with is that some of the people who are down on Trump or are very concerned about COVID have not sold any stock and/or have been adding aggressively and selectively. The idea that people who think that Trump is unnecessarily killing US citizens and that this is NOT going to go away by Easter and that it is NOT as hoax, must be selling out of their positions and going to cash is just wrong. In fact I don't personally know any members of this board who report to have done that although there have been many accusations fearful selling lobbed in this thread and in the politics section, those accusations are likely off base.

 

You have probably missed my prior posts. I was calling for a major top in the end of August. You may go back and read my posts in the end of August for my reasoning.

 

There is no linear relationship between COVID improving -> buying stocks or COVID terrible -> selling stocks. People who think that way need to spend more time learning.

 

I think I have understood you except for your use of the term herd immunity, which is a separate conversation from the one quoted above.

 

My point in the quoted post above has nothing to do with you thesis. It has to do with the fact that in your post above you are giving advice to Dalal and others. There seem to be members of the board that assume that Dalal and others have gone to cash. I have not been following Dalal, so I do not know in his case, but I know in many other cases, those accusations are false. Just as many people who are political conservatives are called "libtards" and stuff like that. There are some very wrong assumptions regarding information that posters on this forum do not disclose such as how their portfolios are actually positioned, or what their actual political beliefs are.

[Cigarbutt]

^If one takes comparable populations, first the populations in Lombardy, New York and my area (Montreal) where initial containment was a key failed issue and second the populations of Florida, Georgia and Texas, the first group showed that, compared to the second group, it was possible to reach much higher levels of cases, hospitalizations and deaths per unit of population. What caused those numbers to compare better in the second group?  Herd immunity? If yes, what evidence suggests that the second group's immunity is different?

 

Also, how one defines "open" when leisure, retail, transit and work-related mobility are still way down in FL, GA and TX?

[Read the Footnotes]

Based on how well COVID is controlled, Dr. Dalal Holdings should move to China and enjoy President Xi's governance.  ;)

BTW China just had a big celebration yesterday regarding how well they controlled COVID vs the rest of the world, and awarded a few top doctors and policy makers for that. You just can't stop winning there. ;)

 

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting...  :-X

 

The herd immunity hypothesis is not broken. Georgia, FL, TX have all reopened and cases continued to trend down. NY reopened some restaurants and look stable so far.

WA, CA's total cases/ population is only half the ratio of GA, FL, TX etc so I think they will get a new wave once they reopen.

I do not have time to track all 50 states.

 

What part do you see that makes you think herd immunity hypothesis is at risk?

I think your terminology is broken, though maybe not your thesis? I have asked before, how do you define herd immunity? You seem to have a non-standard definition.

 

Herd immunity = 80% + population immune to the virus. Therefore if society is open and the daily new cases continue to trend down, that's sign of herd immunity. It is not equal to 0 daily cases every day, unless 100% of population has immunity.

 

There are lots of infections with no symptoms and probably a lot of people who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell has strong reaction to it. So it is naive to use the confirmed total cases to divide the US population and require that to be greater than 80%.

Finally!

Thank you for providing your definition of herd immunity. It is not the textbook definition of herd immunity, but that is not the majority of where you seem to be going wrong in your reasoning.

 

It's true that if we had achieved herd immunity that cases would be declining. It is NOT true that if cases are declining, we must have achieved herd immunity. If A then B, does not mean you can say, B therefore A.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent

 

I agree that it is likely that T-cell immune response likely varies widely and as I have said before I believe there are lots of reasons to believe the level of immunity in the US and elsewhere is likely materially underestimated. That doesn't mean that we are anywhere near the textbook definition of herd immunity anywhere in the world other than in a few narrowly defined communities.

 

[Gregmal]

A little piece of advice to Dalal Holdings and others, Ed Secoda has a famous saying "Everybody gets what they wanted in the market". If you have myopia and laser focus on the bad side of COVID and how terrible Trump is, you will not be able to make the right calls on the market. (Same advice to die hard Trump supporters who only focus on the good things of COVID) You still get what you wanted -- endless entertainment from the most entertaining president of the US. But if you are serious about the stock market, you have to give up the exciting and entertaining portion of this process.

I've talked to really successful investors periodically and they are really smart and really humble. I don't see anyone of them who is ignorant and really proud of being ignorant.  ;)

 

Muscle, this is the most productive post I have seen from you in months. The only thing I don't agree with is that some of the people who are down on Trump or are very concerned about COVID have not sold any stock and/or have been adding aggressively and selectively. The idea that people who think that Trump is unnecessarily killing US citizens and that this is NOT going to go away by Easter and that it is NOT as hoax, must be selling out of their positions and going to cash is just wrong. In fact I don't personally know any members of this board who report to have done that although there have been many accusations fearful selling lobbed in this thread and in the politics section, those accusations are likely off base.

 

You have probably missed my prior posts. I was calling for a major top in the end of August. You may go back and read my posts in the end of August for my reasoning.

 

There is no linear relationship between COVID improving -> buying stocks or COVID terrible -> selling stocks. People who think that way need to spend more time learning.

 

I think I have understood you except for your use of the term herd immunity, which is a separate conversation from the one quoted above.

 

My point in the quoted post above has nothing to do with you thesis. It has to do with the fact that in your post above you are giving advice to Dalal and others. There seem to be members of the board that assume that Dalal and others have gone to cash. I have not been following Dalal, so I do not know in his case, but I know in many other cases, those accusations are false. Just as many people who are political conservatives are called "libtards" and stuff like that. There are some very wrong assumptions regarding information that posters on this forum do not disclose such as how their portfolios are actually positioned, or what their actual political beliefs are.

 

Oh boy. When one states something, all we can do on an internet message community is take them at their word. Of course, some people have demonstrated to be liars or incapable of honesty, which again, is what it is on an internet forum. But "I went to cash" or criticizing(or in many cases outright attacking) people relentlessly for saying the market is overreacting....well, I dont know how we can rewrite that. Everyone was in cash in March and now at all time highs everyone claims to have bought aggressively....just lol-worthy. Maybe some people are folks who can be described as " posters on this forum do not disclose such as how their portfolios are actually positioned" but given this is an investment forum, well, I dont really know what these people are doing here in the first place then. If you can't be transparent and honest on an anonymous forum whats the point? Other than freeloading off others? There's plenty of established investment professionals on this site that are more than generous with their disclosure and transparency...so there isn't really any excuse for some of the lesser-bodies.

 

But yea "I hope you are invested in the market"....as they say.

[muscleman]

Based on how well COVID is controlled, Dr. Dalal Holdings should move to China and enjoy President Xi's governance.  ;)

BTW China just had a big celebration yesterday regarding how well they controlled COVID vs the rest of the world, and awarded a few top doctors and policy makers for that. You just can't stop winning there. ;)

 

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting...  :-X

 

The herd immunity hypothesis is not broken. Georgia, FL, TX have all reopened and cases continued to trend down. NY reopened some restaurants and look stable so far.

WA, CA's total cases/ population is only half the ratio of GA, FL, TX etc so I think they will get a new wave once they reopen.

I do not have time to track all 50 states.

 

What part do you see that makes you think herd immunity hypothesis is at risk?

I think your terminology is broken, though maybe not your thesis? I have asked before, how do you define herd immunity? You seem to have a non-standard definition.

 

Herd immunity = 80% + population immune to the virus. Therefore if society is open and the daily new cases continue to trend down, that's sign of herd immunity. It is not equal to 0 daily cases every day, unless 100% of population has immunity.

 

There are lots of infections with no symptoms and probably a lot of people who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell has strong reaction to it. So it is naive to use the confirmed total cases to divide the US population and require that to be greater than 80%.

Finally!

Thank you for providing your definition of herd immunity. It is not the textbook definition of herd immunity, but that is not the majority of where you seem to be going wrong in your reasoning.

 

It's true that if we had achieved herd immunity that cases would be declining. It is NOT true that if cases are declining, we must have achieved herd immunity. If A then B, does not mean you can say, B therefore A.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent

 

I agree that it is likely that T-cell immune response likely varies widely and as I have said before I believe there are lots of reasons to believe the level of immunity in the US and elsewhere is likely materially underestimated. That doesn't mean that we are anywhere near the textbook definition of herd immunity anywhere in the world other than in a few narrowly defined communities.

 

 

You must have a degree in Math, which unfortunately I don't. Mine is in biology. ;D

[LC]

Everyone with a brain knew the CDC was lying when they advised people not to wear a mask. They also understood the reason they lied was so there weren't even greater runs on supplies and that healthcare workers had supply. Same goes for stocking food/grocery stores/etc. You really, reeeeallly can't gander why?? it just might, make sense to manage the hysteria? Look at all the folks who reacted with hysteria in their approach to the markets...

 

Trump does not have the nation's interest at heart. Any actions to that end are purely coincidental.

 

If he was truly concerned with preventing national hysteria, he would have made efforts to meet BLM protesters in the middle, rather than stoke that fire.

 

His actions to protect national interests are inconsistent, because that is not his goal.

His actions to protect Trump interests are absolutely consistent, because that is his goal.

[DocSnowball]

Based on how well COVID is controlled, Dr. Dalal Holdings should move to China and enjoy President Xi's governance.  ;)

BTW China just had a big celebration yesterday regarding how well they controlled COVID vs the rest of the world, and awarded a few top doctors and policy makers for that. You just can't stop winning there. ;)

 

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting...  :-X

 

The herd immunity hypothesis is not broken. Georgia, FL, TX have all reopened and cases continued to trend down. NY reopened some restaurants and look stable so far.

WA, CA's total cases/ population is only half the ratio of GA, FL, TX etc so I think they will get a new wave once they reopen.

I do not have time to track all 50 states.

 

What part do you see that makes you think herd immunity hypothesis is at risk?

I think your terminology is broken, though maybe not your thesis? I have asked before, how do you define herd immunity? You seem to have a non-standard definition.

 

Herd immunity = 80% + population immune to the virus. Therefore if society is open and the daily new cases continue to trend down, that's sign of herd immunity. It is not equal to 0 daily cases every day, unless 100% of population has immunity.

 

There are lots of infections with no symptoms and probably a lot of people who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell has strong reaction to it. So it is naive to use the confirmed total cases to divide the US population and require that to be greater than 80%.

Finally!

Thank you for providing your definition of herd immunity. It is not the textbook definition of herd immunity, but that is not the majority of where you seem to be going wrong in your reasoning.

 

It's true that if we had achieved herd immunity that cases would be declining. It is NOT true that if cases are declining, we must have achieved herd immunity. If A then B, does not mean you can say, B therefore A.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent

 

I agree that it is likely that T-cell immune response likely varies widely and as I have said before I believe there are lots of reasons to believe the level of immunity in the US and elsewhere is likely materially underestimated. That doesn't mean that we are anywhere near the textbook definition of herd immunity anywhere in the world other than in a few narrowly defined communities.

 

This is something I'm thinking of as well. In many prior outbreaks like pandemic flu, there have been multiple waves. Just because cases went down after the first wave then did not mean herd immunity was already present. Similarly, most Coronavirus (antibody) serosurveys are showing population positivity rates between 5-20% making another wave highly likely. In SARS cases went to zero but they were dealing with small numbers and localized outbreaks, which is different from this pandemic where there are so many "seeds" that it likely won't die out by itself until it infects >50% of the population.

[Castanza]

Everyone with a brain knew the CDC was lying when they advised people not to wear a mask. They also understood the reason they lied was so there weren't even greater runs on supplies and that healthcare workers had supply. Same goes for stocking food/grocery stores/etc. You really, reeeeallly can't gander why?? it just might, make sense to manage the hysteria? Look at all the folks who reacted with hysteria in their approach to the markets...

 

Trump does not have the nation's interest at heart. Any actions to that end are purely coincidental.

 

If he was truly concerned with preventing national hysteria, he would have made efforts to meet BLM protesters in the middle, rather than stoke that fire.

 

His actions to protect national interests are inconsistent, because that is not his goal.

His actions to protect Trump interests are absolutely consistent, because that is his goal.

 

You don’t meet terrorists in the middle. There is zero middle ground when you go around burning, looting, and destroying private property. You don’t get to go around harassing and attacking random white people and then expect some “middle ground” to be met. Sorry LC but that is a terrible take on the current environment. The United States does not negotiate with terrorists. BLM by their own admission is a terrorist organization.

 

Terrorism is defined in the Code of Federal Regulations as “the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives”

[KCLarkin]

BLM by their own admission is a terrorist organization.

 

Please keep BLM on the political threads. This lie would take about 3 seconds to debunk, but I don't want to clutter this thread.

[Castanza]

BLM by their own admission is a terrorist organization.

 

Please keep BLM on the political threads. This lie would take about 3 seconds to debunk, but I don't want to clutter this thread.

 

Right....you must have missed the part where their leader said they were trained marxists right? And they justified the looting saying people should go take their reparations.

 

This response is quite comical coming from the guy who called out the Trump protests for spreading Covid but then had the balls to say 30m people protesting for months had zero impact on Covid spread.

 

Give me a break....  ;D

[Gregmal]

Dont forget to now mention all the liberal mouth breathers calling Sturgis a "super spreader event"....and here I took them at their word that outside events, like protesting the 1.5 dozen unarmed black people killed by cops last 12 months, were OK!

[KCLarkin]

This response is quite comical coming from the guy who called out the Trump protests for spreading Covid but then had the balls to say 30m people protesting for months had zero impact on Covid spread.

 

This is also a lie. I thought the protests WOULD result in spread. I haven't seen any evidence that they ACTUALLY HAVE though.

 

There is a very good reason why 30M people protesting might not impact overall spread of Covid. You are a smart guy, I'm sure you will figure it out. I needed someone smarter to explain it to me. Hint: there are more than 30 million people in the world.

[KCLarkin]

Dont forget to now mention all the liberal mouth breathers calling Sturgis a "super spreader event"....and here I took them at their word that outside events, like protesting the 1.5 dozen unarmed black people killed by cops last 12 months, were OK!

 

If you'd stop making everything political, there are actually some interesting conversations about Sturgis.

 

 

[Castanza]

This response is quite comical coming from the guy who called out the Trump protests for spreading Covid but then had the balls to say 30m people protesting for months had zero impact on Covid spread.

 

This is also a lie. I thought the protests WOULD result in spread. I haven't seen any evidence that they ACTUALLY HAVE though.

 

There is a very good reason why 30M people protesting might not impact overall spread of Covid. You are a smart guy, I'm sure you will figure it out. I needed someone smarter to explain it to me. Hint: there are more than 30 million people in the world.

 

You’re a smart guy too. If 6k people in an arena for one night result in covid spread. Then it should be logical to think that 30m people crossing state lines and protesting with and without masks for months would result in increased spread.

 

You know why there are no studies on it? Because it would be political suicide to come out against it.

[KCLarkin]

You know why there are no studies on it? Because it would be political suicide to come out against it.

 

There are plenty of studies. It is legit to question the quality or the bias of the research. COVID is so widespread and there are so many confounders, I doubt there will ever be high quality evidence in either direction.

[KCLarkin]

You’re a smart guy too. If 6k people in an arena for one night result in covid spread. Then it should be logical to think that 30m people crossing state lines and protesting with and without masks for months would result in increased spread.

 

You're an investor, so this should be obvious to you. You need to look at NET not GROSS.

 

If there are "30M" protestors on the street, you need to net them against the people who aren't out. For example, many cities had curfews. So how many people stayed home instead of going to restaurants or bars?

 

For many cities and many protests, net mobility was probably negative.

 

(plus the masked/unmasked, indoor/outdoor dynamics which you choose to ignore)

[LC]

For many cities and many protests, net mobility was probably negative.

 

Not probably, definitively:

 

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/briefing_US_09.03.2020_Page_10.png

[Cigarbutt]

Israel is an interesting case right now as they have to backpedal and go back to various lockdown measures. It's a delicate balance.

Herd immunity is likely not a significant issue here and at this point as they were able to contain the virus earlier. The key aspect appears to be related to stringency measures applied compared to others. Early on they ranked higher on the stringency index and, for the last few weeks, have ranked quite a bit lower on the index, relatively.

The spread now is more into the younger cohorts, the "vulnerables" are probably better protected and medical care has improved (more because of a better combination of timely treatments than new treatments) and the death curve is less ominous but it's a delicate balance.

The dynamics around this virus have a lot in common with fires in the wild.

[KCLarkin]

Dont forget to now mention all the liberal mouth breathers calling Sturgis a "super spreader event"....and here I took them at their word that outside events, like protesting the 1.5 dozen unarmed black people killed by cops last 12 months, were OK!

 

This article reflects my opinion on Sturgis:

https://slate.com/technology/2020/09/sturgis-rally-covid19-explosion-paper.html

 

 

[muscleman]

Looks like Herd immunity is the only way to go, without a vaccine.

Of course the Trump haters will keep saying, there is no evidence of herd immunity in Sweden. They simply changed their behavior!

Whatever man.

If you guys ever track the court rulings in the FnF thread here and see how those liberal judges bend the law backwards to fit their political views, you would never be surprised about how the liberal "scientists" and "doctors" bending the data backwards to fit their political views.  :)

[LC]

Looks like Herd immunity is the only way to go, without a vaccine.

 

On this, I don't disagree.