Coronavirus

[Gregmal]

Ahh, it's raining personal attacks! Nooooooo!

 

 

Skool was good. Spent most of my time lying about being a doctor.

[Dalal.Holdings]

And look how far you’ve come—now you spend much of your time on this forum following me around trying to one up me even if you’re completely wrong! “Herd immunity”!

[Gregmal]

LOL it wasn't even my trade. The world doesnt revolve around me doctor. I'm happy to debate and bear the proxy positions for everyone in the world whom you disagree with or hold a grudge against, but most of these big issues for you just arent really that big of a deal to me. I just got a kick out of people who took the other side of muscleman's trade, or gave him a hard time, or did a little bit of both but in all likelihood didnt actually have the fortitude to put skin in the game despite such surefire conviction in him being wrong....still running their mouths and claiming they were right and he was wrong even after he's wrapped up a profitable trade...but go ahead, rewrite his investment thesis..."if USA doesnt have below 20,000 covid cases a day and there isn't indisputable, countrywide herd immunity, I will lose my money!".....or something like that right?

 

Its funny, again being the total hypocrite you are...In February-March you were the cheerleader for "we're going lower because the numbers are going to be a lot worse in 30 days!"(unfortunately you got too emotionally attached and seemed to get caught up basking in the attention and now that same trade has ripped your face off)...now? HA! Oh yea, you "dont engage in short term speculating" and are condescending and petty when someone else basically puts on the same type of trade you felt special foreseeing in March! As I said earlier, you cant make this shit up.

[Dalal.Holdings]

LOL it wasn't even my trade. The world doesnt revolve around me doctor. I'm happy to debate and bear the proxy positions for everyone in the world whom you disagree with or hold a grudge against, but most of these big issues for you just arent really that big of a deal to me. I just got a kick out of people who took the other side of muscleman's trade, or gave him a hard time, or did a little bit of both but in all likelihood didnt actually have the fortitude to put skin in the game despite such surefire conviction in him being wrong....still running their mouths and claiming they were right and he was wrong even after he's wrapped up a profitable trade...but go ahead, rewrite his investment thesis..."if USA doesnt have below 20,000 covid cases a day and there isn't indisputable, countrywide herd immunity, I will lose my money!".....or something like that right?

 

Its funny, again being the total hypocrite you are...In February-March you were the cheerleader for "we're going lower because the numbers are going to be a lot worse in 30 days!"(unfortunately you got too emotionally attached and seemed to get caught up basking in the attention and now that same trade has ripped your face off)...now? HA! Oh yea, you "dont engage in short term speculating" and are condescending and petty when someone else basically puts on the same type of trade you felt special foreseeing in March! As I said earlier, you cant make this shit up.

 

You can and you do! The last sentence says it all—easy to disprove just like everything else you post. Apparently in Feb I was “rooting for things to go lower” (which they kinda did in March) but then I also “don’t commit to anything”! Lol! Which is it? Having two contradictory beliefs in one’s head! My trades have ripped my face off apparently ! Apparently you can indeed make stuff up!!

 

Often wrong, never in doubt!

[Gregmal]

LOL it wasn't even my trade. The world doesnt revolve around me doctor. I'm happy to debate and bear the proxy positions for everyone in the world whom you disagree with or hold a grudge against, but most of these big issues for you just arent really that big of a deal to me. I just got a kick out of people who took the other side of muscleman's trade, or gave him a hard time, or did a little bit of both but in all likelihood didnt actually have the fortitude to put skin in the game despite such surefire conviction in him being wrong....still running their mouths and claiming they were right and he was wrong even after he's wrapped up a profitable trade...but go ahead, rewrite his investment thesis..."if USA doesnt have below 20,000 covid cases a day and there isn't indisputable, countrywide herd immunity, I will lose my money!".....or something like that right?

 

Its funny, again being the total hypocrite you are...In February-March you were the cheerleader for "we're going lower because the numbers are going to be a lot worse in 30 days!"(unfortunately you got too emotionally attached and seemed to get caught up basking in the attention and now that same trade has ripped your face off)...now? HA! Oh yea, you "dont engage in short term speculating" and are condescending and petty when someone else basically puts on the same type of trade you felt special foreseeing in March! As I said earlier, you cant make this shit up.

 

You can and you do! The last sentence says it all—easy to disprove just like everything else you post. Apparently in Feb I was “rooting for things to go lower” (which they kinda did in March) but then I also “don’t commit to anything”! Lol! Which is it? Having two contradictory beliefs in one’s head! My trades have ripped my face off apparently ! Apparently you can indeed make stuff up!!

 

Often wrong, never in doubt!

 

So it is not possible to "root for things to go lower", insinuate doom, and still avoid publicly committing to pretty much anything? Even such basic questions as "do you own this?"...well, Dr. Dalal, you are living proof that doing the above is certainly possible.

 

What a poor attempt to wiggle and weasel your way out of that! Its all back in the posts, assuming they didnt magically get edited or deleted.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

"You fail to commit to anything"

 

"LOL, he made a quick buck on RCL puts in March when RCL sold off > 50%, but think of the carrying costs!"

 

"Lol, he still posts in TSLA thread even after selling out at $800 after buying at $200 last year",

 

"LOL he still posts in PTON thread which is up over 100%, but the robintrack data clearly shows he's a Robinhooder!"

 

"Covid was widespread in USA in January with more than hundreds of thousands of cases or more...wait by that I mean there were only a few cases here in January"

 

"NYC has a huge mortality rate which shows the failure of Cuomo! But at the same time, they were gunshot deaths labeled as covid according to some guy in SD!"

 

"When he said 'herd immunity', it doesn't matter because he was right about stonks going up!"

 

Endless entertainment! Impeccable analysis! And: often wrong, never in doubt!

[Gregmal]

As I said, it doesnt matter what you have to say, as you have demonstrated over and over that you are a habitual liar. The strategy of never committing but always insinuating gives the worm wiggle room to say "see I was right" when it goes his way, but also, favorably to say "dont put words in my mouth, I never said that"...when it doesnt.

 

Keep your head up Doc. Hopefully the skools reopen soon and you can get back to your pulpit with that PHD!

[Liberty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/white-house-suppressed-coronavirus-reports-and-downplayed-virus-house-panel-says.html

 

As the White House coronavirus task force privately warned state officials that they faced dire outbreaks over the summer, top Trump administration officials publicly downplayed the threat of Covid-19, documents released Monday by the House Select Subcommittee on Coronavirus show.

 

The subcommittee published eight weeks of internal White House coronavirus reports, which are prepared by the task force and sent privately to governors. The newly published reports begin on June 23 and the most recent report that’s published is from Aug. 9. The White House has declined to make all the reports public.

 

“Rather than being straight with the American people and creating a national plan to fix the problem, the President and his enablers kept these alarming reports private while publicly downplaying the threat to millions of Americans,” subcommittee Chairman James Clyburn, D-S.C., said in a statement.

[Cigarbutt]

Apologies for the interference with what appears to be a very instructive exchange.

From an evolutionary point of view and from a certain detached economic standpoint, aiming to acquire herd immunity can make sense but there are consequences. However, there is a problem when the consequences are not understood or ignored. No? Anyways, the evolving "strategy" is exemplified by a recent addition in the expert task force:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/new-trump-pandemic-adviser-pushes-controversial-herd-immunity-strategy-worrying-public-health-officials/ar-BB18xMz7?ocid=msedgntp

Opinion: It's not necessarily the strategy that cannot be defended, it's the way the strategy is understood or explained. It's very hard to reconcile at a time where financial risk has become socialized to such an extent.

Here's another set of data showing how Houston, for example, is not so different from NYC. Some states may have had slightly less economic interference for a while but most areas are pretty much on the same page at this point for several variables although the period during which excess mortality will have been recorded for the whole territory will be unusually exceptional.

 

 

@Castanza (if you made it this far)

Your comment about the 94% prevalence of co-morbidities is interesting although i wonder if you mean that in the long run we're all dead. If you fill a death certificate for a 20-year-old who just died from a motorcycle accident or a few bullets (outside of conspiratorial reports), only one line is likely to be filled. In that case, you end up with an expected residual life expectancy loss, which is large. When some people (a very significant proportion of US citizens have one or two risk factors and quite a few have more; the added risks with age give rise to an exponential curve of mortality) with risk factors "caught" Covid and ended up in hospital because of the virus, these people had underlying chronic conditions which already curtailed their residual life expectancy but, in some cases, the virus triggered complications (renal failure, vascular events etc) that would probably not have occurred absent Covid but still ended up on different lines on the death certificate. All that to say that, in the aggregate, the typical (median, average or whatever) person (out of the total that your country has reported, subject to upward adjustments) who died from Covid as a primary and proximate cause of death had much lower residual life expectancy compared to the twenty-year-old but what is the value of residual life and who's to decide? This is one of the reasons why the Spanish Flu was so devastating unless you belong to the group who says "let's bring it on, i can take it" and who realize (consciously or not) that the 1348 Black Death did wonders for wages (for those who survived).

[Dalal.Holdings]

Apologies for the interference with what appears to be a very instructive exchange.

From an evolutionary point of view and from a certain detached economic standpoint, aiming to acquire herd immunity can make sense but there are consequences. However, there is a problem when the consequences are not understood or ignored. No? Anyways, the evolving "strategy" is exemplified by a recent addition in the expert task force:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/new-trump-pandemic-adviser-pushes-controversial-herd-immunity-strategy-worrying-public-health-officials/ar-BB18xMz7?ocid=msedgntp

Opinion: It's not necessarily the strategy that cannot be defended, it's the way the strategy is understood or explained. It's very hard to reconcile at a time where financial risk has become socialized to such an extent.

Here's another set of data showing how Houston, for example, is not so different from NYC. Some states may have had slightly less economic interference for a while but most areas are pretty much on the same page at this point for several variables although the period during which excess mortality will have been recorded for the whole territory will be unusually exceptional.

 

 

@Castanza (if you made it this far)

Your comment about the 94% prevalence of co-morbidities is interesting although i wonder if you mean that in the long run we're all dead. If you fill a death certificate for a 20-year-old who just died from a motorcycle accident or a few bullets (outside of conspiratorial reports), only one line is likely to be filled. In that case, you end up with an expected residual life expectancy loss, which is large. When some people (a very significant proportion of US citizens have one or two risk factors and quite a few have more; the added risks with age give rise to an exponential curve of mortality) with risk factors "caught" Covid and ended up in hospital because of the virus, these people had underlying chronic conditions which already curtailed their residual life expectancy but, in some cases, the virus triggered complications (renal failure, vascular events etc) that would probably not have occurred absent Covid but still ended up on different lines on the death certificate. All that to say that, in the aggregate, the typical (median, average or whatever) person (out of the total that your country has reported, subject to upward adjustments) who died from Covid as a primary and proximate cause of death had much lower residual life expectancy compared to the twenty-year-old but what is the value of residual life and who's to decide? This is one of the reasons why the Spanish Flu was so devastating unless you belong to the group who says "let's bring it on, i can take it" and who realize (consciously or not) that the 1348 Black Death did wonders for wages (for those who survived).

 

Your charts are irrelevant. We've "reopened" and cases are going down (ignore that mobility/transit is way down, we're wearing masks, some of us are distancing, schools are closed, warm weather, etc etc), so that clearly means we have achieved herd immunity! We did it! Lol, good night!

[LongHaul]

Great information in here.  I recommend printing out and sharing with family.

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fB5pysccOHvxphpTmCG_TGdytavMmc1cUumn8m0pwzo/edit#

[Guest cherzeca]

the 94% comorbidity of covid deaths cuts right to the insanity of closing down the nation's economy.  there was a narrative that led to the closing down, and that narrative was that covid is highly infectious and if anyone catches it, there is an unacceptable risk that you will die.  and of course, this narrative is incorrect.  what is correct is that if you are over 80 or have serious pre-existing health conditions, your risk of death is unacceptably high.  so the obvious course of action was to protect this who are in the high risk pool, not lock down the entire economy...and of course, we locked down the entire economy and did not even protect those in the high risk pool (Cuomo).

[Cigarbutt]

the 94% comorbidity of covid deaths cuts right to the insanity of closing down the nation's economy.  there was a narrative that led to the closing down, and that narrative was that covid is highly infectious and if anyone catches it, there is an unacceptable risk that you will die.  and of course, this narrative is incorrect.  what is correct is that if you are over 80 or have serious pre-existing health conditions, your risk of death is unacceptably high.  so the obvious course of action was to protect this who are in the high risk pool, not lock down the entire economy...and of course, we locked down the entire economy and did not even protect those in the high risk pool (Cuomo).

So, where do you draw the line and proceed surgically to cut into the mosaic?

Magical thinking not allowed and please consider that the granularity and relative precision of data now is much less uncertain than in late Feb or early March.

And also note that there are occupational risk factors and, as a separate risk factor, it's been shown that inadequate medical coverage is also a relevant risk factor (during Covid, it's been reported that health coverage was significantly insufficient for at least 40% of your fellow citizens).

 

[muscleman]

After seeing the heated exchange between Gremal and Dalal Holdings, i am completely speechless.

Previously I thought Global Warming is the only BS science with people refusing to accept facts for many years. Now it seems like COVID facts are going in that direction too.

 

Whatever man...... You can do whatever you want with your own money. Who cares.  8)

[muscleman]

Warning to people who are still bullish on the market, I think the COVID situation is improving too fast and asset bubble is brewing too quickly and FED may be stopping the QE soon and I expect the market to build a major top here soon.

 

Could we see some type of sector rotation like what happened in 00 when IT stocks bursted and traditional value stocks doubled? Surely we could. But I think the most likely scenario is that we see a bear movement for all kinds of stocks.

 

I've been trying to take out most of the stock positions and buy some rental properties, but didn't have any success. The real estate market has gone wild as well. Even for rental properties with non-paying tenants, buyers are fighting for it. Our state has paused eviction for quite a while, but that won't deter buyers from buying rental properties that yield 2% cash on cash return, IF the tenants start paying again.

 

[muscleman]

To be fair, it is actually not too far away from the 20k prediction. But it doesn't matter. People who remained in cash from April to August and people who have Trump Derangement Syndromes remains biased that the COVID situation is terrible and getting worse and worse and we are going to hell soon.

It is totally comparable with the BS science for Global warming now.

[RichardGibbons]

Warning to people who are still bullish on the market, I think the COVID situation is improving too fast and asset bubble is brewing too quickly and FED may be stopping the QE soon and I expect the market to build a major top here soon.

 

To me, your comment seems to imply that:

A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps,

B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or,

C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered.

 

Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation.

 

So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks!

[Gregmal]

The global warming rabbit hole I think is much simpler. There is sufficient evidence that it is occurring. But there is zero credibility amongst the "experts"(again, primarily pure academics with zero real world or business experience) in terms of implementing an effective and efficient solution. Nor have they demonstrated the ability to ever determine accurate figures that correlate well to reducing the issue. Every "global warming" initiative to date, has more or less been a financial black hole and a get rich quick scheme for many friends and associates of the policy makers. So, at some point, its fair to ask them to put up or shut up, because nothing they've proposed to date has really been worth listening to.

 

With COVID, its basically just scream loud from the mountain tops, cite scary charts and scream "200,000 DEATHS!"(I am guessing that milestone will be a major celebration point for some), but as was consistent with a lot of the financial work done as far back as March(IIRC Brooklyn Investor did a nice piece on this) it just doesnt translate to economic disaster or long term stock market disarray. So being bearish since March, and then wailing at people who didnt buy into the "extinction level event" narrative because of "bbbbut covid cases went up" and then saying things like "stonks" with sarcasm, may make one feel better about reading it totally wrong, but it totally misses the bigger financial picture; the financial picture is ultimately what I'd imagine most on these type of forums are interested in.

[Guest cherzeca]

@cigar. shutting down the economy was intended to protect people from getting covid.  at best it was a second order intention, since most people who get it and are not over 80 or have health issues make it through just fine, so it was a prevent spread to people who will be fine so that the people who won't be fine won't get it intention.  our economy tanked and mental health (anxiety and depression) skyrocketed.  I have read a poll where 10% of the entire US population contemplated suicide during June (source=Glen Greenwald).  this is a direct result of the lockdown/job losses.  we could have been much more focused in our prophylactic effort, is all I am saying.  even today, with NYC infection rate <1% for recent testing, schools are being delayed by two weeks...because teachers have covid derangement syndrome.  suddenly, we are all unsafe in NYC until a vaccine is on market. I know, using NYC as an example for anything is fraught with sampling error...

[Cigarbutt]

@cigar. shutting down the economy was intended to protect people from getting covid.  at best it was a second order intention, since most people who get it and are not over 80 or have health issues make it through just fine, so it was a prevent spread to people who will be fine so that the people who won't be fine won't get it intention.  our economy tanked and mental health (anxiety and depression) skyrocketed.  I have read a poll where 10% of the entire US population contemplated suicide during June (source=Glen Greenwald).  this is a direct result of the lockdown/job losses.  we could have been much more focused in our prophylactic effort, is all I am saying.  even today, with NYC infection rate <1% for recent testing, schools are being delayed by two weeks...because teachers have covid derangement syndrome.  suddenly, we are all unsafe in NYC until a vaccine is on market. I know, using NYC as an example for anything is fraught with sampling error...

Thanks for the post but by writing: "we could have been much more focused in our prophylactic effort, is all I am saying", you are not providing any specific insight about how the issue could have been handled differently from a "we" or from an individual perspective.

The following shows the very unusual outcome related to excess mortality and even if the costs of lockdowns cannot be ignored and even if one should aim for the most productive measures under any circumstances or ideology, it is quite clear that the mortality bipolar curve would have been worse (much worse) without the nonspecific lockdown measures applied, measures which only supplemented spontaneous measures taken at the individual level.

 

 

i'm all ears for alternative scenarios but the mortality curve shows significant failures for initial containment and persistent community spread over many months after. Taking into account the blended age mortality curves shown in the following link, what specific measures could have been taken in order to result in less mortality per cost of measures? Your common sense arguments often imply that lower cost measures could have resulted in lower mortality but, like a 5-year old, i'd like to hear the simple explanation.

See "Provisional death counts for CV", by age group, interactive graph

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

 

This retrospective is fun and all but what counts is what's coming. We are going through the back-to-school phase now and there is potential for over-reaction. In a related way, the notion of herd immunity is important (herd immunity defined as a dynamic concept on top of natural immunity evolving according to spread, behavioral adaptations, seasonal factors etc). In this thread, i've come to think that your approach has been quite tribal (not tribal as way to say primitive for the sake of this specific post but as a way that you may tend to espouse all aspects of a certain ideology, even if not supported by facts or rational analysis). The following seems to indicate that certain graph directions can change once behavioral changes are modified (for example as an educated attempt to go back to school). Spain and France were significantly involved, with important community spread. Recently, their cases (and percent positive rates) have been going up significantly. This may simply reflect the inevitable episodic spikes which may punctually happen but the evolution of data strongly goes against herd immunity in areas that were felt to be hard-hit before.

Apologies for the discomforting evidence. In this exchange with you here, i feel it causes similar distress as when you see a homeless taking a dump on your way to Zabar's. You may wish that the data or analysis did not exist. Data/analysis that is ignored or displaced continues to exist unless root causes are addressed.

[Guest cherzeca]

cigar, no complete country lockdown.  lockdown nursing/lifecare facilities.  lockdown elderly in place and within families and provide meal etc services. lockdown those who are obese/diabetes/etc.  don't lockdown healthy adults or children. capiche? focus lockdown strategy on those who need it, not stupidly on everyone.  we knew very early on who were really threatened by covid.  common sense.

[cubsfan]

cigar, no complete country lockdown.  lockdown nursing/lifecare facilities.  lockdown elderly in place and within families and provide meal etc services. lockdown those who are obese/diabetes/etc.  don't lockdown healthy adults or children. capiche? focus lockdown strategy on those who need it, not stupidly on everyone.  we knew very early on who were really threatened by covid.  common sense.

 

Too simple, makes too much sense...

[Gregmal]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-footage-shows-pelosi-san-201038226.html

 

Nancy following the science! I'm sure they all still dine eloquently, while everyday citizens are told this type of stuff is "too dangerous"...

[Guest cherzeca]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-footage-shows-pelosi-san-201038226.html

 

Nancy following the science! I'm sure they all still dine eloquently, while everyday citizens are told this type of stuff is "too dangerous"...

 

as I recall Pelosi is 80.  she needs to be more careful

[Gregmal]

They probably got their employees all excited by calling them back in...creating this big production, only to tell them to go home since it was only a one off gig for a "do as I say not as I do" politician and that normal people arent allowed to get haircuts yet....