Coronavirus

[Liberty]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has quietly released detailed guidance for reopening schools, mass transit and nonessential businesses that had been shut down in an attempt to curb the spread of the coronavirus in the United States.

 

The 60-page document, dated only as May and posted on the website without a formal announcement, comes after some states announced they would lift stay-at-home orders and begin reopening parts of their economies. The CDC has remained largely quiet on the pandemic. Agency officials haven’t held a coronavirus-related briefing in more than two months.

 

The 60-page document comes weeks after some states announced that they would lift stay-at-home orders and would begin reopening parts of their economies.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/coronavirus-cdc-quietly-releases-detailed-guidelines-for-reopening-us.html

 

CDC still seems paralyzed and not playing its role, either because of incompetence or fear of angering Trump. They all saw people getting fired or attacked for contradicting him, and since he himself contradicts himself all the time (from on day to the other it's "shelter in place" to "reopen America"), it's hard to know where to stand to be safe. Of course, Trump is in charge of the CDC as head of the federal government and picked CDC leadership, so all this is his responsibility.

[Liberty]

Article on states hiring contact tracers. Better late than never, I guess:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/what-is-a-coronavirus-contact-tracer-and-how-to-get-hired-as-one.html

[RichardGibbons]

It's worthwhile noting that Investor20 is right about the masks. There's a huge amount of value to everyone just wearing masks.

 

That said, it's now a political issue so it will be hard to get everyone wearing masks, but it's still worth doing it.

[Liberty]

It's worthwhile noting that Investor20 is right about the masks. There's a huge amount of value to everyone just wearing masks.

 

That said, it's now a political issue so it will be hard to get everyone wearing masks, but it's still worth doing it.

 

Of course masks are good. I was also highly in favor of masks early in this thread. You just can't keep saying that masks aren't being pushed because of WHO. It's also because of Trump, who won't even wear one, who won't use his influence and reach to convince people to wear them (one of the main powers of the presidency is explaining things to citizens and persuading them of something), and who didn't order emergency production of PPE months ago despite talking about it repeatedly, and has greatly contributed by his words and actions to politicizing them (should seatbelts and condoms and vaccines also be politicized? so stupid). It's not like other countries can't and haven't pushed masked whatever the WHO said early on, or if they listened at first, haven't later course-corrected rather than kept going in the wrong direction.

[Liberty]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/coronavirus-distancing-deaths.html?referringSource=articleShare

 

Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, researchers found.

 

If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.

 

And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.

 

Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May. [...]

 

After Italy and South Korea had started aggressively responding to the virus, President Trump resisted canceling campaign rallies or telling people to stay home or avoid crowds. The risk of the virus to most Americans was very low, he said.

 

“Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on,” Mr. Trump tweeted on March 9, suggesting that the flu was worse than the coronavirus. “At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”

[ERICOPOLY]

It's worthwhile noting that Investor20 is right about the masks. There's a huge amount of value to everyone just wearing masks.

 

That said, it's now a political issue so it will be hard to get everyone wearing masks, but it's still worth doing it.

 

I overheard a woman yesterday saying "i'm not drinking the cool-aid" (walked into the medical office without a mask).  People have bought into the "this is just a hoax" line and won't take precautions.  All fallout from politicizing the virus, and this only costs lives and economic damage.

[RichardGibbons]

I overheard a woman yesterday saying "i'm not drinking the cool-aid" (walked into the medical office without a mask).  People have bought into the "this is just a hoax" line and won't take precautions.  All fallout from politicizing the virus, and this only costs lives and economic damage.

 

The irony is that because of who Trump is, and how his supporters act, it isn't too late for him to support masks.

 

Trump constantly flips positions, and his propaganda network pretends his previous statements don't exist, and his supporters all jump in line. And there's no real political cost to him from flip-flopping. (The non-Trump supporters largely don't need to be persuaded, since the mostly understand science and accepting mild inconvenience for the greater good.)

 

So, if Trump did reverse his position, it would probably work out quite well. But he won't, because he's vain.

[Read the Footnotes]

It's worthwhile noting that Investor20 is right about the masks. There's a huge amount of value to everyone just wearing masks.

 

That said, it's now a political issue so it will be hard to get everyone wearing masks, but it's still worth doing it.

 

I overheard a woman yesterday saying "i'm not drinking the cool-aid" (walked into the medical office without a mask).  People have bought into the "this is just a hoax" line and won't take precautions.  All fallout from politicizing the virus, and this only costs lives and economic damage.

 

Anchoring Bias. Some of them will never update their estimate of the value of a mask.

 

Same with Trump himself, once he anchored to the hoax narrative, it was all over. Can anyone find an example where Trump says he was wrong about something? At a minimum it doesn't seem to be common.

[Jurgis]

Practical-side observations/thoughts of masks:

 

I and my wife wear masks to stores and anywhere we have to interact closely with people. We wear masks at home when someone comes from outside - e.g. we had a chimney sweep come recently.

 

Since mask wearing sucks (I cannot wear a mask and eyeglasses - they fog over), and IMO the infection risk outdoors is very low, we don't wear masks outdoors when we go for walks. I guess this is being bad role model though. ::)

 

It would be nice to be able to buy N95 masks for store visits, but AFAIK they are not reliably available. (Feel free to post pointers if you think they are).

 

I thought about buying face shields for going to stores, but still not sure it's worth it. It's additional hassle, you still have to wear mask underneath and supply is unreliable. (Feel free to post pointers if you have pointers for good supply.)

 

It sucks when a neighbor comes over without a mask and starts talking to you. First, no mask - bad. Second, talking - also bad (worse than just walking by or standing closely and not talking). I don't have a good way to tell them not to do it without them being offended.  ::)

[vinod1]

Practical-side observations/thoughts of masks:

 

I and my wife wear masks to stores and anywhere we have to interact closely with people. We wear masks at home when someone comes from outside - e.g. we had a chimney sweep come recently.

 

Since mask wearing sucks (I cannot wear a mask and eyeglasses - they fog over), and IMO the infection risk outdoors is very low, we don't wear masks outdoors when we go for walks. I guess this is being bad role model though. ::)

 

It would be nice to be able to buy N95 masks for store visits, but AFAIK they are not reliably available. (Feel free to post pointers if you think they are).

I thought about buying face shields for going to stores, but still not sure it's worth it. It's additional hassle, you still have to wear mask underneath and supply is unreliable. (Feel free to post pointers if you have pointers for good supply.)

 

It sucks when a neighbor comes over without a mask and starts talking to you. First, no mask - bad. Second, talking - also bad (worse than just walking by or standing closely and not talking). I don't have a good way to tell them not to do it without them being offended.  ::)

 

Most asian stores (Chinese or Indian) have KN95 masks, which I am told are quite similar if not same as N95. Bought a few myself. There are kids versions of those masks too. That one I do not trust as much but still likely better than cloth I think.

 

This also has the added benefit that you are not taking away N95 masks from the front line workers.

 

Vinod

[LC]

Right - the question is not whether masks are effective. It has been proven that they are. It's a respiratory virus, for pete's sake - of course masks will be effective.

 

The question(s) are why masks are not widespread. Liberty addressed this one at least hitting the main points (poor federal leadership - a common theme during this pandemic).

 

And the follow up is, if mask use does become widespread - is this sufficient to "reopen" the US economy?

 

[Liberty]

Politicizing masks further:

 

"I didn't want to give the press the pleasure of seeing it," Trump says he wore a mask at the Ford plant behind the scenes, but not in front of the cameras.

[patience_and_focus]

It's worthwhile noting that Investor20 is right about the masks. There's a huge amount of value to everyone just wearing masks.

 

That said, it's now a political issue so it will be hard to get everyone wearing masks, but it's still worth doing it.

 

Of course masks are good. I was also highly in favor of masks early in this thread. You just can't keep saying that masks aren't being pushed because of WHO. It's also because of Trump, who won't even wear one, who won't use his influence and reach to convince people to wear them (one of the main powers of the presidency is explaining things to citizens and persuading them of something), and who didn't order emergency production of PPE months ago despite talking about it repeatedly, and has greatly contributed by his words and actions to politicizing them (should seatbelts and condoms and vaccines also be politicized? so stupid). It's not like other countries can't and haven't pushed masked whatever the WHO said early on, or if they listened at first, haven't later course-corrected rather than kept going in the wrong direction.

 

Hallmarks of a good investor (and should I dare say someone who is good at anything else) is to realize their mistakes if they have been made (they don't even have to publicize them) and course correct when facts change on the ground. Can't say that with the current white house -

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/trump-doesnt-wear-coronavirus-mask-to-ford-plant.html

 

[Gregmal]

I'm not really sure how masks are a political issue. Its common sense, and low risk to just wear one. Given whats going on, its stupid not to, at least right now. What part of this involves politics?

[patience_and_focus]

I'm not really sure how masks are a political issue. Its common sense, and low risk to just wear one. Given whats going on, its stupid not to, at least right now. What part of this involves politics?

 

Clearly many in the white house have not gotten this memo and are setting a different example for their supporters to emulate.

[Liberty]

I'm not really sure how masks are a political issue. Its common sense, and low risk to just wear one. Given whats going on, its stupid not to, at least right now. What part of this involves politics?

 

Exactly, it shouldn't involve politics at all, and it doesn't in other places, afaik. Just like the virus, it's a medical/scientific question. We should make the best decisions with the best data available at the time, the things with the highest probability of mitigating negative effects of the crisis because it's so incredibly expensive that even tiny improvements will be worth billions and save thousands of lives...

 

But it has been politicized, just like the virus. When the most powerful, most visible person in the world spends weeks calling something a hoax perpetuated by his opponents to hurt him and downplays it (and then all his surrogates at Fox News amplify his message 24/7) and tweets in all caps LIBERATE and says "masks are totally optional, I won't wear one" and then doesn't wear one for weeks as his medical advisors clearly are wearing masks behind him, that makes it political, and it weakens greatly the call for citizens to wear masks.

 

Which is stupid because it's such a low cost, effective way to help us reopen quicker and save lots of lives. In 10 days the whole Czec Republic made cloth masks and it helped a lot. Austria similarly, iirc, like pretty much all successful countries.

 

But I'm pretty sure Trump tried one on, looked in the mirror and thought "that looks weak", so his narcissism is keeping him from doing the obviously correct thing.

[Liberty]

Pre-making decision, regardless of the facts in the future:

 

"Trump says he won’t close the country if second wave of coronavirus hits"

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/trump-says-he-wont-close-the-country-if-second-wave-of-coronavirus-hits.html

[Gregmal]

If there is anyone who probably doesnt need to wear a mask, its probably folks who have secret service/security teams guarding them 24/7 as it is practically impossible for social distancing not to occur, especially if there is an effort to avoid shaking hands, which I dont know if that is the case or not. Either way, if some in the WH are doing this, great thats their choice. But its not really political and only becomes political because people try to label it as such. I live in a moderately right leaning but generally even split town. Everyone wears masks. The other day I stopped at a fish and hunting store to pick up some slip bobber ties. Place was run by the most red neck die hard Republicans you'll ever meet. Pretty sure the business was open despite not being essential. Whatever. Both husky pickup driving dudes had masks on. Trump can do something, and it doesnt have to automatically become standard for lefties to brandish that behavior as political and representative of "his base". I mean, infidelity certainly isn't exclusive to Republicans...

 

Although I do agree, must be extremely psychologically difficult for true narcissists to wear the mask.

[ERICOPOLY]

He reportedly wore a mask inside of the Ford plant but would not allow any photographs to be taken because he didn't want the press to get them.  It really is about ego. 

 

My wife makes this great voice of a child digging in and refusing to eat his green beans.  "No, I won't do it and you can't make me because  I... DON'T...  WAN'T... TO!!".

[ERICOPOLY]

then doesn't wear one for weeks as his medical advisors clearly are wearing masks behind him, that makes it political

 

Watch the scene again where Robert Duvall is standing tall while everyone around him is taking shelter and he's acting like a war isn't going on all around him and nothing is going to scratch him, and he wants to surf the beach.  It's all showbusiness.

[ERICOPOLY]

If the "churches will be packed by Easter" appeared out of touch, this explains things very well.  Imagine if your therapist worked with you for years on learning the tool of how to "think magically" to get you through hard times. 

 

Was it all taught?

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-magical-thinking-on-coronavirus-is-rooted-in-the-teachings-of-this-famous-pastor/ar-BB14pONf

 

 

[cwericb]

One can understand the frustration of some with so much political discourse on this thread.

 

But how do you separate out the political aspect of the fight against COVID-19 when the man in charge of the country has made himself a major part of any discussion on the virus by consistently minimizing its threat? By his ignoring his own health experts? By refusing to wear a mask and setting a poor example for the country? By admitting to taking a drug that health experts warn against and in fact, may deprive people in need that drug?

 

Has not Trump made his politics and his personality a integral part of any discussion on COVID-19.

 

Just a thought.

[ERICOPOLY]

Let's talk about Fairfax as an investment, but discussion of the CEO and how the CEO is managing the company is not permitted.  How often is Elon Musk's mental state or alleged manipulation discussed on the TSLA thread?  It isn't called 'politics' when we're trying to understand the man in charge of a corporation.

[Investor20]

Let's talk about Fairfax as an investment, but discussion of the CEO and how the CEO is managing the company is not permitted.  How often is Elon Musk's mental state or alleged manipulation discussed on the TSLA thread?  It isn't called 'politics' when we're trying to understand the man in charge of a corporation.

 

SARS-1 happened in 2003 when (as per interview with Kim Woo-Joo) learnt of usefulness of masks with coronavirus.

[Investor20]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1

 

Twelve studies were identified with usable data to enter into calculations. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.113% to 25.9% and adjusted seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.309% to 33%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.03% to 0.50% and corrected values ranged from 0.02% to 0.40%.

 

He seems to have left out Spain which had higher number but included 12 studies.