Coronavirus

[Guest cherzeca]

"We have changed certain aspects of our behavior that will protect more individuals, but I do believe unfortunately that large portions of the population will continue to be high risk."

 

I distinguish between behavior and wellness, and ask being high risk for what.  I dont view behavior (such as handshaking) as an issue with covid, unless you refer to obesity as behavior, and I would ask high risk for what...most of the younger population (children and young adults) are not at high risk for even the sniffles with covid, and adults in general good health are at high risk, but only for a weeklong fever/sore throat.  that is a substantial portion of our population.

 

going forward, I would hope there are public service messages for the benefits of bariatric surgery, walking as a form of exercise available to almost all, and proper nutrition just like you see today for avoiding cigarettes. and I would love to see whether vaping is a risk factor for covid complications.

 

there is a lot we can do when we get back to opening society in addition to just opening society.

[StubbleJumper]

Millions of lives could be saved from flu deaths over the next decade if everyone would stop eating meat and dairy.  Is that statement correct?  My understanding is that the flu comes from livestock (pigs and chickens) via wild ducks.

 

Anyways, back to shutting down the world in order to save the same numbers from something else, and doing nothing as simple as a healthier diet for eradicating the flu...

 

 

Well, in the strictest sense, that is true.  But, in the North American reality, our consumption of pork and poultry does not create a meaningful risk of novel viruses because the vast bulk of our meat is produced in intensive livestock operations (factory farms).  Those facilities are on permanent lock-down status, with access restricted to only essential people, and access is granted only on a shower-in, shower-out basis.  The animals never leave the barn, and few people ever get access to the barn.

 

The biggest risk is actually the small operations such as the back-yard pig industry in China or back-yard poultry flocks anywhere.  A large portion of rural Chinese effectively live along side a couple of hogs and a few dozen chickens, and those animals also root around or scratch around outdoors.  With that operational structure, the poultry is susceptible to infection from migratory birds because a flock of birds flying overhead can shit into the backyard where the chickens are kept.  And then the chickens live in close proximity to the humans and the hogs, so that's where problems can arise.

 

The next time your neighbours lobby city council for a bylaw that permits people to keep backyard chickens, think about whether a few dozen eggs is really worth the risk posed by highly pathogenic H5N1.

 

 

SJ

[arcube]

"We have changed certain aspects of our behavior that will protect more individuals, but I do believe unfortunately that large portions of the population will continue to be high risk."

 

I distinguish between behavior and wellness, and ask being high risk for what.  I dont view behavior (such as handshaking) as an issue with covid, unless you refer to obesity as behavior, and I would ask high risk for what...most of the younger population (children and young adults) are not at high risk for even the sniffles with covid, and adults in general good health are at high risk, but only for a weeklong fever/sore throat.  that is a substantial portion of our population.

 

going forward, I would hope there are public service messages for the benefits of bariatric surgery, walking as a form of exercise available to almost all, and proper nutrition just like you see today for avoiding cigarettes. and I would love to see whether vaping is a risk factor for covid complications.

 

there is a lot we can do when we get back to opening society in addition to just opening society.

 

Handshaking is not a issue for you in the short term?

[Gregmal]

"We have changed certain aspects of our behavior that will protect more individuals, but I do believe unfortunately that large portions of the population will continue to be high risk."

 

I distinguish between behavior and wellness, and ask being high risk for what.  I dont view behavior (such as handshaking) as an issue with covid, unless you refer to obesity as behavior, and I would ask high risk for what...most of the younger population (children and young adults) are not at high risk for even the sniffles with covid, and adults in general good health are at high risk, but only for a weeklong fever/sore throat.  that is a substantial portion of our population.

 

going forward, I would hope there are public service messages for the benefits of bariatric surgery, walking as a form of exercise available to almost all, and proper nutrition just like you see today for avoiding cigarettes. and I would love to see whether vaping is a risk factor for covid complications.

 

there is a lot we can do when we get back to opening society in addition to just opening society.

 

Handshaking is not a issue for you in the short term?

 

Probably prefer the chest bump personally...

[Investor20]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/germans-could-be-fined-up-to-e2-82-ac10000-for-not-wearing-face-masks/ar-BB13gFo6

 

Germans could be fined up to €10,000 for not wearing face masks

 

New rules have come into force legally requiring most people in Germany to wear face masks on public transport, long-distance trains and in shops.

 

The so-called Maskenpflicht (mask duty) was introduced in 15 of the country’s 16 states on Monday morning. The northern state of Schleswig-Holstein will on Wednesday be the last state to implement the legislation.

 

Fines of between €25 and €10,000 can be imposed on those who fail to wear a mask, with rates differing widely across the country, and some states, such as Berlin and Brandenburg, insisting they would not levy fines at all, but would rely instead on people showing each other mutual respect by wearing them.

[patience_and_focus]

Glad to see that more people are recognizing what the "flatten the curve" exactly entails. It's not to eliminate/control the virus, but to stretch out the number of cases/deaths over time. There is always a danger of 2nd or 3rd spike even if you control it now (e.g., look at Singapore). Hence, the modeling papers such as the Imperial College's work recommend doing the intervention measures for 18 months or more, until the vaccine is found. I'm not sure those who religiously support the "flatten the curve" approach understands this! And I don't understand why some people would like to consider discovering a vaccine as a "black swan" event that could happen in the short term. All the EXPERTS agree that it will take about 18 months. Shouldn't we take their words?

 

Anyways, the problem I see is that the general public does not understand what the strategy entails. They are mostly left in the blind having to trust the government and their experts. Only after you read the actual modeling papers or run simulation yourself, you really understand the consequences and what's ahead of us with this strategy. And it's not just Trump in the US who is not communicating this, but the same in other countries as well.

 

I honestly don't know which measure will work out the best in the end...The future is impossible to predict. I'm not sure why many value investors suddenly believe anyone can model and predict the future... We used to laugh at so-called financial or economic "experts" who try to model and predict the market... It's not much different in the epidemiology world where the system you are trying to model is extremely complex and dynamic.

You seem to have left out one of the other principal reasons for flattening the curve in the first wave, which is simply to buy time. The hope is that we will have more tools available than simply hand washing and physical distancing, the same tools we we had hundreds of years ago.

 

A good analogy is to think of it as putting a patient in to a medically induced coma briefly in hopes that treatment will improve in the interim. The number of interventions large and small that can be developed in three months is often also underestimated buy those who oppose flattening the first wave.

 

Those are all fair points. I'm just not sure if the public is aware of this as the main reason. Perhaps the message would be too grim if they were told, "we are just buying time, hoping to find a cure...and it could take over a year".

 

That is where good leadership shines. Look at Germany and what Merkel said when cases were exploding. SHe was very somber but firm. They also executed afterwards on a plan. And look at South Korea and Taiwan (in terms of communication and follow-up action). These countries did not have all the same prescriptions but they did follow-up effectively to ramp up testing/tracing and public policy. I think we fail to imagine that good and honest communication followed by effective action builds confidence in general population and is equally important. Sadly, US in not in the same boat yet.

[LC]

That is where good leadership shines. Look at Germany and what Merkel said when cases were exploding. SHe was very somber but firm. They also executed afterwards on a plan. And look at South Korea and Taiwan (in terms of communication and follow-up action). These countries did not have all the same prescriptions but they did follow-up effectively to ramp up testing/tracing and public policy. I think we fail to imagine that good and honest communication followed by effective action builds confidence in general population and is equally important. Sadly, US in not in the same boat yet.

 

It's just unfair to compare Germany, which is led by a former quantum chemist, to the USA which is led by a reality TV persona.

[Liberty]

That is where good leadership shines. Look at Germany and what Merkel said when cases were exploding. SHe was very somber but firm. They also executed afterwards on a plan. And look at South Korea and Taiwan (in terms of communication and follow-up action). These countries did not have all the same prescriptions but they did follow-up effectively to ramp up testing/tracing and public policy. I think we fail to imagine that good and honest communication followed by effective action builds confidence in general population and is equally important. Sadly, US in not in the same boat yet.

 

It's just unfair to compare Germany, which is led by a former quantum chemist, to the USA which is led by a reality TV persona.

 

You don't have to go to PhDs in quantum chemistry... In general, it's hard to find a country led by someone dumber than the US right now. There's a lot of countries on the planet, so there's probably some out there, but none come to mind.

[Investor20]

That is where good leadership shines. Look at Germany and what Merkel said when cases were exploding. SHe was very somber but firm. They also executed afterwards on a plan. And look at South Korea and Taiwan (in terms of communication and follow-up action). These countries did not have all the same prescriptions but they did follow-up effectively to ramp up testing/tracing and public policy. I think we fail to imagine that good and honest communication followed by effective action builds confidence in general population and is equally important. Sadly, US in not in the same boat yet.

 

It's just unfair to compare Germany, which is led by a former quantum chemist, to the USA which is led by a reality TV persona.

 

You don't have to go to PhDs in quantum chemistry... In general, it's hard to find a country led by someone dumber than the US right now. There's a lot of countries on the planet, so there's probably some out there, but none come to mind.

 

From Worldometer Deaths/Million

 

Taiwan:  0.3

Japan: 3

S. Korea: 5

Germany: 74

 

Why do you think Germany is doing better than Taiwan, Japan, or S. Korea?

[Guest cherzeca]

"We have changed certain aspects of our behavior that will protect more individuals, but I do believe unfortunately that large portions of the population will continue to be high risk."

 

I distinguish between behavior and wellness, and ask being high risk for what.  I dont view behavior (such as handshaking) as an issue with covid, unless you refer to obesity as behavior, and I would ask high risk for what...most of the younger population (children and young adults) are not at high risk for even the sniffles with covid, and adults in general good health are at high risk, but only for a weeklong fever/sore throat.  that is a substantial portion of our population.

 

going forward, I would hope there are public service messages for the benefits of bariatric surgery, walking as a form of exercise available to almost all, and proper nutrition just like you see today for avoiding cigarettes. and I would love to see whether vaping is a risk factor for covid complications.

 

there is a lot we can do when we get back to opening society in addition to just opening society.

 

Handshaking is not a issue for you in the short term?

 

at some point real soon, I will start shaking hands again. minds follow actions as much as actions follow minds.  I dont want to be a person who regards other people as foreign or dangerous substances.  I wonder if people will shake hands with me.

 

but my larger point, which I will reiterate, is that covid attacks people not because of their "behavior", but because of their advanced age and lack of wellness (distinguishing for a moment from health).  "behavior" can actually be viewed as a class-based epithet...poor people who have to use subway to get to work and live in three generation households (the type of people who accounted for the majority of the deaths in NYC) are not exhibiting bad behavior, but rather exemplary behavior. 

 

my other point is that states are so misguided to think that everyone has to shelter in place unless they are an "essential" worker.  everyone who works to feed family and pay rent is an essential worker...essential to his/her family. and many people do not fit the profile of being at risk to serious consequences from covid...these people should be allowed to work.

[Liberty]

Well this speaks for itself:

 

 

"Some reportage from a Coronavirus Lockdown Protest in Sacramento, California on April 20, 2020."

[Liberty]

That is where good leadership shines. Look at Germany and what Merkel said when cases were exploding. SHe was very somber but firm. They also executed afterwards on a plan. And look at South Korea and Taiwan (in terms of communication and follow-up action). These countries did not have all the same prescriptions but they did follow-up effectively to ramp up testing/tracing and public policy. I think we fail to imagine that good and honest communication followed by effective action builds confidence in general population and is equally important. Sadly, US in not in the same boat yet.

 

It's just unfair to compare Germany, which is led by a former quantum chemist, to the USA which is led by a reality TV persona.

 

You don't have to go to PhDs in quantum chemistry... In general, it's hard to find a country led by someone dumber than the US right now. There's a lot of countries on the planet, so there's probably some out there, but none come to mind.

 

From Worldometer Deaths/Million

 

Taiwan:  0.3

Japan: 3

S. Korea: 5

Germany: 74

 

Why do you think Germany is doing better than Taiwan, Japan, or S. Korea?

 

Did I say that?

[Dalal.Holdings]

That is where good leadership shines. Look at Germany and what Merkel said when cases were exploding. SHe was very somber but firm. They also executed afterwards on a plan. And look at South Korea and Taiwan (in terms of communication and follow-up action). These countries did not have all the same prescriptions but they did follow-up effectively to ramp up testing/tracing and public policy. I think we fail to imagine that good and honest communication followed by effective action builds confidence in general population and is equally important. Sadly, US in not in the same boat yet.

 

It's just unfair to compare Germany, which is led by a former quantum chemist, to the USA which is led by a reality TV persona.

 

You don't have to go to PhDs in quantum chemistry... In general, it's hard to find a country led by someone dumber than the US right now. There's a lot of countries on the planet, so there's probably some out there, but none come to mind.

 

This is why I say just reopen and encourage precaution for those who will do it. We’re stuck with our leadership until Jan 2021 at the very least, so waiting it out with more lockdowns doesn’t seem to be worth the economic costs. Some places will come out of lockdown stronger/more prepared than others due to varying response throughout the country and varying demographics/density.

 

We proved we’re not S Korea and we’re proving we’re not Germany.

[Liberty]

Pence, head of Coronavirus task force:

 

[DooDiligence]

Pence, head of Coronavirus task force:

 

 

TBF, he has a lot of experience holding his breath with a mouth full of Trumps twig & berries.

[Jurgis]

Well this speaks for itself:

 

 

"Some reportage from a Coronavirus Lockdown Protest in Sacramento, California on April 20, 2020."

 

So many Darwin award candidates, so few viruses.

[Liberty]

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/4/27/21236270/bill-gates-coronavirus-covid-19-plan-vaccines-conspiracies-podcast

 

Interview with Bill Gates

[Guest cherzeca]

cost of the covid shutdown: 

 

"On that point, Casey Mulligan, the University of Chicago economist formerly on the White House Council of Economic Advisers, has calculated in a new paper the real cost of shutting down the economy as the government has done. He estimates about a $6 trillion loss of private market production a year, plus another $2 trillion for the future costs (i.e., higher taxes) of paying for current relief efforts. Subtract for black market effects and other things and he figures a $7 trillion net cost per year of shutdown."

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-gop-spending-split-11588115854?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

 

[Guest cherzeca]

the great Heather MacDonald:

 

"Nursing homes are ground zero for the disease, since their populations are exclusively the elderly infirm. These vulnerable individuals must be intensively protected. But to cancel most of the country’s economy for a problem, however tragic, that is highly ­localized was a devastating policy blunder that must be immediately corrected. Lives are being lost to the overreaction. The economic bans must be lifted, and any true public-health expert would tell those Central Park joggers and cyclists to tear off their masks and breathe free."

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/central-park-shows-just-how-over-fearful-of-coronavirus-weve-become/

 

[Investor20]

That is where good leadership shines. Look at Germany and what Merkel said when cases were exploding. SHe was very somber but firm. They also executed afterwards on a plan. And look at South Korea and Taiwan (in terms of communication and follow-up action). These countries did not have all the same prescriptions but they did follow-up effectively to ramp up testing/tracing and public policy. I think we fail to imagine that good and honest communication followed by effective action builds confidence in general population and is equally important. Sadly, US in not in the same boat yet.

 

It's just unfair to compare Germany, which is led by a former quantum chemist, to the USA which is led by a reality TV persona.

 

You don't have to go to PhDs in quantum chemistry... In general, it's hard to find a country led by someone dumber than the US right now. There's a lot of countries on the planet, so there's probably some out there, but none come to mind.

 

From Worldometer Deaths/Million

 

Taiwan:  0.3

Japan: 3

S. Korea: 5

Germany: 74

 

Why do you think Germany is doing better than Taiwan, Japan, or S. Korea?

Did I say that?

No.  Who ever said the following which I bolded in my comments "And look at South Korea and Taiwan (in terms of communication and follow-up action). These countries did not have all the same prescriptions but " (comparing to Germany)

[LC]

Let's not forget to add all the relevant data, particularly when the context is a comparison vs. the USA:

 

From Worldometer Deaths/Million

 

Taiwan:  0.3

Japan: 3

S. Korea: 5

Germany: 74

 

USA: 179

[Investor20]

February 13, 2020

https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-can-be-spread-by-people-who-dont-show-symptoms-cdc-warns/

 

Coronavirus can be spread through people who aren’t exhibiting symptoms of the illness, the director of the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention said Thursday.

 

Wow! Who knew? No, I mean literally WHO knew. Here is video from a WHO briefing on February 4th discussing asymptomatic transmission:

 

Can I suggest you save your efforts to scapegoat WHO for your Facebook friends? You do realize that WHO has the budget of one large U.S. hospital? It is a small group of underfunded bureaucrats not a wealthy gang of super-villians?

 

OK...you can go by a briefing where WHO said there is a possibility of asymptomatic transmission and ignore their published guidelines on April 2nd.

 

WHO guidelines on masks:

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

 

    If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19.

 

    Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.

 

Wondering if you agree with it?

[Investor20]

Let's not forget to add all the relevant data, particularly when the context is a comparison vs. the USA:

 

From Worldometer Deaths/Million

 

Taiwan:  0.3

Japan: 3

S. Korea: 5

Germany: 74

 

USA: 179

 

Yes...US is better than most European countries except Germany.  Eg. France 362

 

Most South East Asian countries are far better than Europe or US.

 

I think its because of masks policy.

 

Germany made masks compulsory with potential fines few days back in certain crowded places.

[LC]

Frankly there are lots of unknowns to explain such divergent results.

 

NYC has a tremendous casualty percentage, was this because they refused to wear masks while other areas (e.g. California) wore masks from the start? The evidence does not support that. Educated guesses would point to differences in population density.

 

But even using pop.density is difficult. Look at Taiwan, for example. Extremely dense, very low casualties.

 

There is most likely not one major factor. Rather a variety of factors (travel, density, masks, quarantine/social distancing, viral evolution, weather, demographics, etc.) that formed in deadly combinations in some areas rather than others. Knowing this is probably impossible.

 

What is possible is to control what we are able to control - wearing facemasks, quarantine procedures, and such. We can debate how large the effect these factors play, but they are easier to control compared to the weather.

[Guest cherzeca]

"There is most likely not one major factor. Rather a variety of factors (travel, density, masks, quarantine/social distancing, viral evolution, weather, demographics, etc.) that formed in deadly combinations in some areas rather than others. Knowing this is probably impossible."

 

being poor is a good explanatory factor.  having to take subway, live in crowded apartment. not having gone to primary care doctor for god knows how long.  eating happy meals for dinner.  this is life in bronx Brooklyn and queens.  the most interesting datum that we will never have is the socio-economic spectrum of covid fatalities.  you may have heard that covid doesnt discriminate among class, but the harshest effect of covid likely does.