orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 That being said I dont think my guesses were too bad. No, they were appallingly bad, to the extent that I'd lose a some degree of respect for all doctors if it weren't for Dalal's sensible posts on this thread to pull me back off that ledge. Frankly, it terrifies me that doctors exist who ignore evidence for gut feel, make wild speculations not even supported by common sense let alone facts, and then when the evidence proves them wrong, continue to insist that they were right. (What the heck is one to do if one seriously needs a doctor, and this is the doctor one gets? Just roll over and die?) Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Dalal's sensible posts? Jesus Christ, which ones? the chicken little the sky is falling ones? the never ending cock sucking of Taleb? The tiresome Buffett and Munger quotes? The personal attack ones? The one where he told Gregmal "Fuck you" when he was wrong? The never ending Trump bullshit and political innuendo. The ones where he insulted myself and others unabated? Cherzeca was right, you belong in the Dalal pile too. You want to align yourself with that childish bullshit? Be my guest. We could have a 10 page thread of just his/her insults throughout the message board. Quite a character on the end of that keyboard. Self assumingly witty, smart, and bumptious but in all honestly if the real life personality matched what has been typed out on this message board a DSM-5 evaluation would be in order.
cubsfan Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 I think the facts are, that major mistakes were made in the early innings in just about every country around the world. The mistakes may vary from country to country. Uh, yeah, that about sums it up - but why miss a chance to blame it all on Trump when you have the opportunity? John - you're kind of taking the grown up view, which doesn't fly around here..just ask Orthopa
cubsfan Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 That still means you were wrong though and every model you quoted and took to heart was also, and yes you quoted models. Tough to take I know. Your predictions never matched reality, and never were going to. You were unhinged and scared. People do weird things and are irrational when they are scared, and it was obvious you were. Your forgiven. Don't be too hard on these guys - they were only off by millions. Kind of like Gavin Newsome - in another couple of weeks, 56% of Californians were supposed to be infected - around 24 million residents, but since there are no subways and crowded busses in CA, these guys made up all kinds of excuses why it didn't happen. What else is new?
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 I think the facts are, that major mistakes were made in the early innings in just about every country around the world. The mistakes may vary from country to country. Uh, yeah, that about sums it up - but why miss a chance to blame it all on Trump when you have the opportunity? John - you're kind of taking the grown up view, which doesn't fly around here..just ask Orthopa No shit, I have tried taking the high road with many here but god damn its hard.
gary17 Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 these mistakes were based in part by poor info from China and a WHO don’t dispute Trump. Trudeau. many leaders are responsible. but i think the early info made people believe it is similar to SARS than flu in terms of transmission
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheels-are-in-motion-for-widespread-coronavirus-antibody-testing-in-new-york-2020-04-15?mod=mw_latestnews Antibody testing will be key to getting economies around the country moving again. “We have these estimates that it could be millions of people” in the U.S. who will qualify to go back to work once an antibody test is deployed, said Joshua M. Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at the New York University School of Global Public Health. "Until the tests are available, there’s no way of knowing just how many New Yorkers have had the virus, Racaniello said. He estimates it could be 10 times more than the official tally, due to lack of early testing and the potentially large number of asymptomatic carriers. " And no one hit me with that its been spreading since you said millions of people 5-6 weeks ago so thats why I could be that high now. If Dalal can say the curve was flattened and disaster was averted because of the lock down, then you cant in same breath said it has been spreading rapidly. Cant have it both ways.
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 That still means you were wrong though and every model you quoted and took to heart was also, and yes you quoted models. Tough to take I know. Your predictions never matched reality, and never were going to. You were unhinged and scared. People do weird things and are irrational when they are scared, and it was obvious you were. Your forgiven. Don't be too hard on these guys - they were only off by millions. Kind of like Gavin Newsome - in another couple of weeks, 56% of Californians were supposed to be infected - around 24 million residents, but since there are no subways and crowded busses in CA, these guys made up all kinds of excuses why it didn't happen. What else is new? Exactly. I get my nuts roasted for saying 100's of thousands/millions have the virus 5 weeks ago but at the same time Dalal, Gibbons, and alwaysdrawing are choking on their models predicting EXPONENTIAL DEATHS My assumption is still up for debate, theirs is totally, 100% without question wrong. But I guess what you do is scream and yell, and insult and rub someones face in it to prove their point.
Casey Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 Awesome. I would love to know if I've had this already.
Gregmal Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheels-are-in-motion-for-widespread-coronavirus-antibody-testing-in-new-york-2020-04-15?mod=mw_latestnews Antibody testing will be key to getting economies around the country moving again. “We have these estimates that it could be millions of people” in the U.S. who will qualify to go back to work once an antibody test is deployed, said Joshua M. Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at the New York University School of Global Public Health. And no one hit me with that its been spreading since you said millions of people 5-6 weeks ago so thats why I could be that high now. If Dalal can say the curve was flattened and disaster was averted because of the lock down, then you cant in same breath said it has been spreading rapidly. Cant have it both ways. LOL yea, or that the government response was a disaster, even though the numbers turned out to be pretty underwhelming. Or that Cuomo and De Blasio did a great just, when NY was the dumpster fire, WHILE broadcasting that the entire US was basically going to be Italy, when in realty it only ended up being his state and his elected officials... He didn't commit to things on purpose though, a lot of hucksters do this. That way, either way, they can claim they were right. Its a very NYer way to behave.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 Finally I haven't seen you piss all over Dalal, alwaysdrawing etc who foresaw exponential deaths and complete collapse of the healthcare system in WA and NYC. Those two cities were supposed to be a sign of things to come for the rest of the US which as of right now, is completely wrong. Please get a hard on for them too as I dont feel its necessary to run back and rub their nose in it. Be fair and do it for me. I made it policy to no longer respond to you (Schwab711 does a good job anyway), but you attempt to call me out here and grossly mischaracterize my statements--"fearing a collapse in the healthcare system" does not equal "predicting complete collapse of healthcare system": No, collapse did not happen thanks to - NYC lockdown, - every single hospital in NYC turning itself inside out, - Cuomo, - cancelling all elective cases, - A military ship, - Javit's center, - A tent in central park, - And more unprecedented, never before done actions taken Saying I should be criticized for fearing healthcare collapse in early March (before any of these things were put in place) is laughable. And btw, the deaths were exponential until the curve flattened thanks to all of these unprecedented, never-before-done measures. Finally, You are and have been consistently wrong and refuse to eat your bowl of crow. So, your bowl is going cold--can I just have it instead? Groceries are hard to come by these days. Thanks. That still means you were wrong though and every model you quoted and took to heart was also, and yes you quoted models. Tough to take I know. Your predictions never matched reality, and never were going to. You were unhinged and scared. People do weird things and are irrational when they are scared, and it was obvious you were. Your forgiven. Lol. Putting a seatbelt on does not mean one is predicting a car crash. But to each his own.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 That being said I dont think my guesses were too bad. No, they were appallingly bad, to the extent that I'd lose a some degree of respect for all doctors if it weren't for Dalal's sensible posts on this thread to pull me back off that ledge. Frankly, it terrifies me that doctors exist who ignore evidence for gut feel, make wild speculations not even supported by common sense let alone facts, and then when the evidence proves them wrong, continue to insist that they were right. (What the heck is one to do if one seriously needs a doctor, and this is the doctor one gets? Just roll over and die?) Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Dalal's sensible posts? Jesus Christ, which ones? the chicken little the sky is falling ones? the never ending cock sucking of Taleb? The tiresome Buffett and Munger quotes? The personal attack ones? The one where he told Gregmal "Fuck you" when he was wrong? The never ending Trump bullshit and political innuendo. The ones where he insulted myself and others unabated? Cherzeca was right, you belong in the Dalal pile too. You want to align yourself with that childish bullshit? Be my guest. We could have a 10 page thread of just his/her insults throughout the message board. Quite a character on the end of that keyboard. Self assumingly witty, smart, and bumptious but in all honestly if the real life personality matched what has been typed out on this message board a DSM-5 evaluation would be in order. You mean i told that guy to fuck off after he mocked NYers dying in “the cesspool”. You continue to make things up. It’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca A.k.a. The best of the best
LC Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 I just hope that when we are finally done with SARS-CoV-2, that there will be a World-Wide conclusion, to avoid that this - to the best of all nations - won't happen again. At the risk of sounding misanthropic: I think the lesson here is that, this WILL happen again (could be next year, next decade, next century - but viruses do not go away) ; and we will NOT be prepared, we will not learn from this, and to think otherwise is to grossly overestimate the ability for a bunch of tribal nations and populist leaders to "do what is right". Look at China and the US to see what the world powers are doing: totalitarian misinformation vs. egotistical misinformation. Nonsense all around.
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 That being said I dont think my guesses were too bad. No, they were appallingly bad, to the extent that I'd lose a some degree of respect for all doctors if it weren't for Dalal's sensible posts on this thread to pull me back off that ledge. Frankly, it terrifies me that doctors exist who ignore evidence for gut feel, make wild speculations not even supported by common sense let alone facts, and then when the evidence proves them wrong, continue to insist that they were right. (What the heck is one to do if one seriously needs a doctor, and this is the doctor one gets? Just roll over and die?) Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Dalal's sensible posts? Jesus Christ, which ones? the chicken little the sky is falling ones? the never ending cock sucking of Taleb? The tiresome Buffett and Munger quotes? The personal attack ones? The one where he told Gregmal "Fuck you" when he was wrong? The never ending Trump bullshit and political innuendo. The ones where he insulted myself and others unabated? Cherzeca was right, you belong in the Dalal pile too. You want to align yourself with that childish bullshit? Be my guest. We could have a 10 page thread of just his/her insults throughout the message board. Quite a character on the end of that keyboard. Self assumingly witty, smart, and bumptious but in all honestly if the real life personality matched what has been typed out on this message board a DSM-5 evaluation would be in order. You mean i told that guy to fuck off after he mocked NYers dying in “the cesspool”. You continue to make things up. It’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca A.k.a. The best of the best You typed that stuff no one else, and it has nothing to do with corners or teams. If in real life you treat people with same vitriol and aggression that you do on here then maybe you need to actually re read those Munger/Buffet quotes because let me tell you are not even in the same galaxy.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 That being said I dont think my guesses were too bad. No, they were appallingly bad, to the extent that I'd lose a some degree of respect for all doctors if it weren't for Dalal's sensible posts on this thread to pull me back off that ledge. Frankly, it terrifies me that doctors exist who ignore evidence for gut feel, make wild speculations not even supported by common sense let alone facts, and then when the evidence proves them wrong, continue to insist that they were right. (What the heck is one to do if one seriously needs a doctor, and this is the doctor one gets? Just roll over and die?) Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Dalal's sensible posts? Jesus Christ, which ones? the chicken little the sky is falling ones? the never ending cock sucking of Taleb? The tiresome Buffett and Munger quotes? The personal attack ones? The one where he told Gregmal "Fuck you" when he was wrong? The never ending Trump bullshit and political innuendo. The ones where he insulted myself and others unabated? Cherzeca was right, you belong in the Dalal pile too. You want to align yourself with that childish bullshit? Be my guest. We could have a 10 page thread of just his/her insults throughout the message board. Quite a character on the end of that keyboard. Self assumingly witty, smart, and bumptious but in all honestly if the real life personality matched what has been typed out on this message board a DSM-5 evaluation would be in order. You mean i told that guy to fuck off after he mocked NYers dying in “the cesspool”. You continue to make things up. It’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca A.k.a. The best of the best You typed that stuff no one else, and it has nothing to do with corners or teams. If in real life you treat people with same vitriol and aggression that you do on here then maybe you need to actually re read those Munger/Buffet quotes because let me tell you are not even in the same galaxy. Bro, I don’t care about arguing further. Like I said, new policy. I am glad it hasn’t been the worst case scenario and we’ve flattened. Just like being glad I didn’t have to use my seatbelt. If in your book that means I too predicted wrong, then so be it. Carry on.
rolling Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheels-are-in-motion-for-widespread-coronavirus-antibody-testing-in-new-york-2020-04-15?mod=mw_latestnews Antibody testing will be key to getting economies around the country moving again. “We have these estimates that it could be millions of people” in the U.S. who will qualify to go back to work once an antibody test is deployed, said Joshua M. Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at the New York University School of Global Public Health. "Until the tests are available, there’s no way of knowing just how many New Yorkers have had the virus, Racaniello said. He estimates it could be 10 times more than the official tally, due to lack of early testing and the potentially large number of asymptomatic carriers. " And no one hit me with that its been spreading since you said millions of people 5-6 weeks ago so thats why I could be that high now. If Dalal can say the curve was flattened and disaster was averted because of the lock down, then you cant in same breath said it has been spreading rapidly. Cant have it both ways. Dear orthopa, not taking sides, but Exponencial growth makes it possible. numbers were growing over 30% a day in most places prior to lockdown, which means healthcare capacity would be overwhelmed in those places were it not for the lockdowns: lockdowns earn you time by reducing case growth from over 30 to sub 10% (over here after a few weeks we are now on a 3-4% case growth per day). with that time you can plan, prioritize, buy supplies, organize campaign hospitals, etc. at over 30 % a day (in some places maybe over 50% a day) everybody gets sick before you can do anything. However, millions of cases is not something strange in a country as big as the us. And with a double in less than 3 days you very quickly reach the millions. The lockdowns however might have turned many millions into a few millions, which means this thing will last longer, but should not kill so many
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 I just hope that when we are finally done with SARS-CoV-2, that there will be a World-Wide conclusion, to avoid that this - to the best of all nations - won't happen again. At the risk of sounding misanthropic: I think the lesson here is that, this WILL happen again (could be next year, next decade, next century - but viruses do not go away) ; and we will NOT be prepared, we will not learn from this, and to think otherwise is to grossly overestimate the ability for a bunch of tribal nations and populist leaders to "do what is right". Look at China and the US to see what the world powers are doing: totalitarian misinformation vs. egotistical misinformation. Nonsense all around. Not only that but how well are we prepared for: 1. A tsunami that destroys the east/west coast 2. An earthquake that devastates California/west coast 3. A nuclear attack and associated fall out 4. An asteroid hitting earth 5. insert recent hollywood end of world movie. Hindsight is always 20/20. Any natural disaster(virus/disease included here) in the future will take us by surprise and we wont be prepared for it. We cant think of everything and as powerful as we think we are the natural forces that rule our world are way stronger then us. The BP spill was a shit show. The Haiti earthquake was a shit show. Katrina was a shit show, etc etc. We are humans, we make mistakes, we are forced by default to react in situations with limited knowledge and are horrible at making predictions. That being said is it any surprise this may have not been handled perfectly at every step along the way?
cobafdek Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 I'm trying to ask this uncontroversially mostly medical professionals here: assuming a gradual relaxation of the lockdown with no vaccine, no treatment, and no (or minimal) testing/tracking. Would you say going out is acceptable or too risky? Let's assume a medium-high risk state like MA. Let's assume not super vulnerable person. If we want to talk concrete "going out" categories, let's say going to parks, general shopping, meeting friends/family, going to office/work, going to a restaurant (I tried to order this from least risk to most risk). Outcome of "severe" infection sounds very scary. That has to be balanced with infection risks though. I know this is a bit theoretical and uncertain, but since there's a talk of "relaxation" even in NY state, maybe this could be useful. I could open a new topic... but probably not worth it. Thanks Today, yes, I think the risk is acceptable, based on general reports of curve flattening and general lack of overwhelmed local ERs and ICUs. The "re-opening" of local economies should be conditional on: 1. universal mask usage 2. maintaining 6-ft social distancing 3. no large crowds This can allow many businesses, restaurants, maybe some schools to re-open. The decision regarding timing, pace, and extent of re-opening will be left to state governors and local authorities, who can fine-tune the above conditions, based on local factors. If a surge of serious cases start to show up in ERs and ICUs, they'll have to clamp down again. The federal government level can mostly give permission to states and localities to open up around April 30 (maybe even before), when they feel ready. They can veto crazy decisions that might happen in some regional southern areas, such as large church services, movie theaters, sports arenas. As you say, there is no good medical treatment/vaccine, and testing has been disappointing. (Whenever you rush out with new tests for a new disease, being unable to evaluate accuracy and reliability systematically, we really can't trust the results.) But you don't need testing or treatment in new pandemics, since the only effective measure is various levels of quarantine and travel restrictions. (If South Korea had no testing but had only lockdowns, they would have still been fine.) Today, I think the risk of economic recession/depression (deaths, suicides, depressions, lack of confidence in authorities) is greater than the risk of swamping the medical system, especially if the heavy lockdown extends beyond April 30. I think this feeling is widespread, and is percolating from the bottom-up. Any heavy handed top-down governmental restrictions will be answered by spontaneous bottom-up rebellion - so in a way, I think your question is moot. Improvement in testing should go on, but their utility will primarily be in retrospective analysis for future outbreaks. We don't need precise knowledge from test results to know what to do now (again, the only thing to do is isolation with masks and some form of quarantine). And even if a vaccine is developed, I don't have confidence that it will be effective or safe enough, especially if it comes earlier rather than later.
RichardGibbons Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Sure. It's pretty simple. You were saying early on that hundreds of thousands or millions of people in the USA probably had it, and that testing was pointless. Then, hundreds of thousands of people in NYC actually got it and more than 10K died, which wouldn't have happened if all those people were infected already. And the countries that have done the best have been the ones who were good at testing and tracing. That said, I have come down more harshly on you than others simply because you're dishonest, and because--if you are actually a doctor--I think that dishonesty makes you dangerous. (I would have no problem whatsoever with you if you were simply wrong and adjusted your beliefs as the evidence changed. In fact, I'd have a whole pile of respect for you, if that were the case.) I also think that anyone who makes the argument that the worst case didn't arise so the worst case scenario couldn't possibly be true--after there was a massive, month-long lockdown to prevent the worse case scenario--is either disingenuous or stupid or both.
Spekulatius Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheels-are-in-motion-for-widespread-coronavirus-antibody-testing-in-new-york-2020-04-15?mod=mw_latestnews Antibody testing will be key to getting economies around the country moving again. “We have these estimates that it could be millions of people” in the U.S. who will qualify to go back to work once an antibody test is deployed, said Joshua M. Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at the New York University School of Global Public Health. And no one hit me with that its been spreading since you said millions of people 5-6 weeks ago so thats why I could be that high now. If Dalal can say the curve was flattened and disaster was averted because of the lock down, then you cant in same breath said it has been spreading rapidly. Cant have it both ways. LOL yea, or that the government response was a disaster, even though the numbers turned out to be pretty underwhelming. Or that Cuomo and De Blasio did a great just, when NY was the dumpster fire, WHILE broadcasting that the entire US was basically going to be Italy, when in realty it only ended up being his state and his elected officials... He didn't commit to things on purpose though, a lot of hucksters do this. That way, either way, they can claim they were right. Its a very NYer way to behave. I would put more blame on Blasio than on Cuomo for handling the COVID-19 epidemic. As a major, he is responsible to keep his city safe foremost and he failed to do so. When you look around the county, there were many majors (in Texas- DFW and Austin- etc) example), where majors before the state did and sometimes county the state advisory. Blasio failed in that regard it just continues his track record of failure (in my opinion) and while Cuomo wasn’t particular proactive either did manage the crisis well. The real hero’s (if you want to call it that) are Gary Newsom and Jay Inslee who were proactive, and despite having early exposure squashed this thing before the problem snowballed. It also can remind on the then derided decision of the SF major to shut down the city even though there were no cases at that time (February 25). Those folks deserve way more credit than Cuomo in my opinion.
hillfronter83 Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 This clearly shows virus was not wide spread in US in Jan 2020:
Guest cherzeca Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 @dalal "it’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca" hey fuckface, get the spelling of my user name right. are you stupid, dyslexic or both?
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheels-are-in-motion-for-widespread-coronavirus-antibody-testing-in-new-york-2020-04-15?mod=mw_latestnews Antibody testing will be key to getting economies around the country moving again. “We have these estimates that it could be millions of people” in the U.S. who will qualify to go back to work once an antibody test is deployed, said Joshua M. Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at the New York University School of Global Public Health. "Until the tests are available, there’s no way of knowing just how many New Yorkers have had the virus, Racaniello said. He estimates it could be 10 times more than the official tally, due to lack of early testing and the potentially large number of asymptomatic carriers. " And no one hit me with that its been spreading since you said millions of people 5-6 weeks ago so thats why I could be that high now. If Dalal can say the curve was flattened and disaster was averted because of the lock down, then you cant in same breath said it has been spreading rapidly. Cant have it both ways. Dear orthopa, not taking sides, but Exponencial growth makes it possible. numbers were growing over 30% a day in most places prior to lockdown, which means healthcare capacity would be overwhelmed in those places were it not for the lockdowns: lockdowns earn you time by reducing case growth from over 30 to sub 10% (over here after a few weeks we are now on a 3-4% case growth per day). with that time you can plan, prioritize, buy supplies, organize campaign hospitals, etc. at over 30 % a day (in some places maybe over 50% a day) everybody gets sick before you can do anything. However, millions of cases is not something strange in a country as big as the us. And with a double in less than 3 days you very quickly reach the millions. The lockdowns however might have turned many millions into a few millions, which means this thing will last longer, but should not kill so many I agree, and believe probably millions. Spreading rapidly and what that means is highly up for debate and probably useless to discuss right. Throw a number and situation out there and it seems plausible. My point was if the lock down slowed the spread and people stayed in their house, wore masks etc then the growth should have slowed exponentially. NY has been on a "pause" for a month. New cases caused by community spread should have hit rock bottom and in reality only now be from spread within families/close contacts etc. Once the pre lockdown infections progressed to recovered or death where else would the infection be coming from? So if NY is at 2 million cases after a complete lock down taking into account the slowest possible spread from the most extreme measures contemplated, that number of infected now is coming from a higher then expected initial base before the lock down. Whether or the lock downs actually worked or not maybe up for debate around the country. Different states locked down at different times. Different restrictions in each state. Some have only essential services, some don't. All seem to be working. Its likely the social distancing, standard precautions, hand washing, masks, etc that is having the most effect since that is probably the most consistent measure practiced across the entire US.
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 This clearly shows virus was not wide spread in US in Jan 2020: How wide spread was it on March 11th?
orthopa Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Sure. It's pretty simple. You were saying early on that hundreds of thousands or millions of people in the USA probably had it, and that testing was pointless. Then, hundreds of thousands of people in NYC actually got it and more than 10K died, which wouldn't have happened if all those people were infected already. And the countries that have done the best have been the ones who were good at testing and tracing. That said, I have come down more harshly on you than others simply because you're dishonest, and because--if you are actually a doctor--I think that dishonesty makes you dangerous. (I would have no problem whatsoever with you if you were simply wrong and adjusted your beliefs as the evidence changed. In fact, I'd have a whole pile of respect for you, if that were the case.) I also think that anyone who makes the argument that the worst case didn't arise so the worst case scenario couldn't possibly be true--after there was a massive, month-long lockdown to prevent the worse case scenario--is either disingenuous or stupid or both. I'm trying to ask this uncontroversially mostly medical professionals here: assuming a gradual relaxation of the lockdown with no vaccine, no treatment, and no (or minimal) testing/tracking. Would you say going out is acceptable or too risky? Let's assume a medium-high risk state like MA. Let's assume not super vulnerable person. If we want to talk concrete "going out" categories, let's say going to parks, general shopping, meeting friends/family, going to office/work, going to a restaurant (I tried to order this from least risk to most risk). Outcome of "severe" infection sounds very scary. That has to be balanced with infection risks though. I know this is a bit theoretical and uncertain, but since there's a talk of "relaxation" even in NY state, maybe this could be useful. I could open a new topic... but probably not worth it. Thanks Today, yes, I think the risk is acceptable, based on general reports of curve flattening and general lack of overwhelmed local ERs and ICUs. The "re-opening" of local economies should be conditional on: 1. universal mask usage 2. maintaining 6-ft social distancing 3. no large crowds This can allow many businesses, restaurants, maybe some schools to re-open. The decision regarding timing, pace, and extent of re-opening will be left to state governors and local authorities, who can fine-tune the above conditions, based on local factors. If a surge of serious cases start to show up in ERs and ICUs, they'll have to clamp down again. The federal government level can mostly give permission to states and localities to open up around April 30 (maybe even before), when they feel ready. They can veto crazy decisions that might happen in some regional southern areas, such as large church services, movie theaters, sports arenas. As you say, there is no good medical treatment/vaccine, and testing has been disappointing. (Whenever you rush out with new tests for a new disease, being unable to evaluate accuracy and reliability systematically, we really can't trust the results.) But you don't need testing or treatment in new pandemics, since the only effective measure is various levels of quarantine and travel restrictions. (If South Korea had no testing but had only lockdowns, they would have still been fine.) Today, I think the risk of economic recession/depression (deaths, suicides, depressions, lack of confidence in authorities) is greater than the risk of swamping the medical system, especially if the heavy lockdown extends beyond April 30. I think this feeling is widespread, and is percolating from the bottom-up. Any heavy handed top-down governmental restrictions will be answered by spontaneous bottom-up rebellion - so in a way, I think your question is moot. Improvement in testing should go on, but their utility will primarily be in retrospective analysis for future outbreaks. We don't need precise knowledge from test results to know what to do now (again, the only thing to do is isolation with masks and some form of quarantine). And even if a vaccine is developed, I don't have confidence that it will be effective or safe enough, especially if it comes earlier rather than later. You must have missed this post by cobafdek right before yours. My assumption is you think he/she is a dishonest doctor too. We will in time see if 100's of thousands or millions had it.
RichardGibbons Posted April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020 At the risk of sounding misanthropic: I think the lesson here is that, this WILL happen again (could be next year, next decade, next century - but viruses do not go away) ; and we will NOT be prepared, we will not learn from this, and to think otherwise is to grossly overestimate the ability for a bunch of tribal nations and populist leaders to "do what is right". Look at China and the US to see what the world powers are doing: totalitarian misinformation vs. egotistical misinformation. Nonsense all around. This is a really great point, but for some reason I'm still hopeful. I think a few good leaders could reverse this trend. Trump and most Republicans have abandoned good faith efforts to rule, but I still believe that people in aggregate are intrinsically good, and most people who get into politics really do want to do what they believe is best for the country. The only question is whether this phase in USA politics is a short-term thing, or if the system has been broken to the point where it's impossible for good leaders to be elected. If the latter, then I'd expect to see American power to continue to plummet in the world, as it drives away its allies and its anti-science/anti-education mentality dramatically weakens the country's competitive position. Just as happened with the Soviet Union, I think it's very hard to sustain (for much more than a century) a system whose values don't match reality. But I still think it's more likely that USA will pull out of this descent and remain a superpower. (Or that the blue states separate and become the new superpower, producing 2/3rds of the USA GDP--effectively the same thing. Secession isn't likely today, but after a few elections where the majority is repeatedly thwarted through tricks like voter suppression and gerrymandering, I think it becomes more likely.)
Recommended Posts