cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 more sanity from Dr. Wittkowski...https://www.aier.org/article/stand-up-for-your-rights-says-professor-knut-m-wittkowski/ posted especially for Dalal Nice find --- and facinating food for thought: With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated…. We are experiencing all sorts of counterproductive consequences of not well-thought-through policy…. Well, we will see maybe a total of fewer cases—that is possible. However, we will see more cases among the elderly, because we have prevented the school children from creating herd immunity. And so, in the end, we will see more death because the school children don’t die, it’s the elderly people who die, we will see more death because of this social distancing…. If we had herd immunity now, there couldn’t be a second wave in autumn. Herd immunity lasts for a couple of years, typically, and that’s why the last SARS epidemic we had in 2003, it lasted 15 years for enough people to become susceptible again so that a new epidemic could spread of a related virus. Because typically, there is something that requires cross-immunity, so if you were exposed to one of the SARS viruses, you are less likely to fall ill with another SARS virus. So, if we had herd immunity, we wouldn’t have a second wave. However, if we are preventing herd immunity from developing, it is almost guaranteed that we have a second wave as soon as either we stop the social distancing or the climate changes with winter coming or something like that…. [Extreme reactions] cost the US taxpayer $2 trillion, in addition to everything else that it costs, but it also has severe consequences for our social life, and depression is definitely something that we will be researching. I can say for myself, walking through New York City right now is depressing…. We should be resisting, and we should, at least, hold our politicians responsible. We should have a discussion with our politicians. One thing we definitely need to do, and that would be safe and effective, is opening schools. Let the children spread the virus among themselves, which is a necessity to get herd immunity. That was probably one of the most destructive actions the government has done. We should focus on the elderly and separating them from the population where the virus is circulating. We should not prevent the virus from circulating among school children, which is the fastest way to create herd immunity…. And the final question and answer: “So, is there anything else you want to say about this that—what’s been aggravating you the most? Or what would you like people to know?” I think people in the United States and maybe other countries as well are more docile than they should be. People should talk with their politicians, question them, ask them to explain, because if people don’t stand up to their rights, their rights will be forgotten. I’m Knut Wittkowski. I was at the Rockefeller University, I have been an epidemiologist for 35 years, and I have been modeling epidemics for 35 years. It’s a pleasure to have the ability to help people to understand, but it’s a struggle to get heard.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 Additional animated perspective: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-rapid-increase-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-in-one-graphic.html excellent graphic! We finally agree on something! Though I wonder if for different reasons... :-X
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 That is one interesting interview - posted by Cherczeca - this is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2491&v=lGC5sGdz4kg&feature=emb_title There seem to be plenty of epidemiologists that are questioning how this epidemic is being handled.
Viking Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 26-min interview with Bill Gates: Liberty, i am not sure where you find all of these sources :-) Please keep them coming... If anyone wants to understand exactly where the US is at today, and what it will take to re-open, watch this interview. - re-opening: perhaps early June, in limited way - key enabler to reopening: nationally coordinated testing capability able to prioritize tests so high priority people get results back within 24 hours and contract tracing can happen immediately. - Today testing results are not coordinated or prioritized at a national level; sounds like a helter skelter approach (he also inferred if you pay $ you can get a very quick result and be tested every day if you want). - Gates was pretty emphatic that what is done with testing in the next 7 weeks will determine how comprehensive and successful the re-opening phase will be. - very confident a treatment will be found in the next couple of months, which will help. - vaccine is likely 18 months away (perhaps a little sooner if all goes well).
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 Another interview - different group - Professor of Medicine, Stanford Medical School - who is astounded that we have shut down the economy for this:
Guest Schwab711 Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I can't help but think of all the posts deriding the folks worried about climate change as hypocrites. Go get infected with the disease and get immunity yourself if it's such a great idea. Report back with progress and I may consider doing the same in a few weeks.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 @MDs of cobf, Any thoughts or anecdotes on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat cv? Thanks this has become the default protocol, before some better antivirals engineered more specifically for covid become available. my buddy pulmonologist in Jax and my 3 MD friends in NYC all confirm that it is highly effective, though not 100%
Guest cherzeca Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I can't help but think of all the posts deriding the folks worried about climate change as hypocrites. Go get infected with the disease and get immunity yourself if it's such a great idea. Report back with progress and I may consider doing the same in a few weeks. you may already have
Jurgis Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 26-min interview with Bill Gates: Liberty, i am not sure where you find all of these sources :-) Please keep them coming... If anyone wants to understand exactly where the US is at today, and what it will take to re-open, watch this interview. - re-opening: perhaps early June, in limited way - key enabler to reopening: nationally coordinated testing capability able to prioritize tests so high priority people get results back within 24 hours and contract tracing can happen immediately. - Today testing results are not coordinated or prioritized at a national level; sounds like a helter skelter approach (he also inferred if you pay $ you can get a very quick result and be tested every day if you want). - Gates was pretty emphatic that what is done with testing in the next 7 weeks will determine how comprehensive and successful the re-opening phase will be. - very confident a treatment will be found in the next couple of months, which will help. - vaccine is likely 18 months away (perhaps a little sooner if all goes well). My guesses about reopening, etc.: - Reopening will be patchwork as were closures - There will be no fast national prioritized testing or contact tracing - It's gonna be muddle through with flare-ups and drops and a lot of continued acrimony across the country. In the best case flare-ups will not be huge and will be followed with local lockdowns immediately. - If there's treatment in next couple months, then we win. GAME OVER.
Jurgis Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I can't help but think of all the posts deriding the folks worried about climate change as hypocrites. Go get infected with the disease and get immunity yourself if it's such a great idea. Report back with progress and I may consider doing the same in a few weeks. Def this. Boris Johnson did this. Following his lead is the highest honor. We will appreciate your sacrifice. KK THX OK.
Guest Schwab711 Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I can't help but think of all the posts deriding the folks worried about climate change as hypocrites. Go get infected with the disease and get immunity yourself if it's such a great idea. Report back with progress and I may consider doing the same in a few weeks. you may already have If only I could've gotten a test at any point, we'd know. Someday government will actually address the problem that's leading to the economic problems. Until then, regardless of orders from governors, folks aren't going to spend money. That's the crux of all the "open the economy talk". There are 8 states with no stay at home orders right now. Spending still fell off a cliff in South Dakota just like everywhere else. SD small businesses are even getting larger bailouts than middle class workers in NYC, despite 'not being affected'. I don't even understand what epidemiologists you guys are blaming for the stay at home orders. Not one of them has any actual authority. It's this weird boogeyman. Aren't you supposed to be upset at Trump/governors?
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I can't help but think of all the posts deriding the folks worried about climate change as hypocrites. Go get infected with the disease and get immunity yourself if it's such a great idea. Report back with progress and I may consider doing the same in a few weeks. Don't forget--these people put the rest of us at risk with their efforts to derail the fight against this pandemic + climate change. The risks are not confined to the (foolish) individual, but are systemic.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 @MDs of cobf, Any thoughts or anecdotes on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat cv? Thanks If it worked as well as Trump thinks it does, you wouldn't be seeing 1700+ daily deaths. Invert, always invert.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 @MDs of cobf, Any thoughts or anecdotes on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat cv? Thanks If it worked as well as Trump thinks it does, you wouldn't be seeing 1700+ daily deaths. Invert, always invert. can you report a poster for abject stupidity? not to mention taking the name of a great investor in vain by mere association
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 @MDs of cobf, Any thoughts or anecdotes on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat cv? Thanks If it worked as well as Trump thinks it does, you wouldn't be seeing 1700+ daily deaths. Invert, always invert. can you report a poster for abject stupidity? not to mention taking the name of a great investor in vain by mere association You are a treasure!
Spekulatius Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I can't help but think of all the posts deriding the folks worried about climate change as hypocrites. Go get infected with the disease and get immunity yourself if it's such a great idea. Report back with progress and I may consider doing the same in a few weeks. you may already have If only I could've gotten a test at any point, we'd know. Someday government will actually address the problem that's leading to the economic problems. Until then, regardless of orders from governors, folks aren't going to spend money. That's the crux of all the "open the economy talk". There are 8 states with no stay at home orders right now. Spending still fell off a cliff in South Dakota just like everywhere else. SD small businesses are even getting larger bailouts than middle class workers in NYC, despite 'not being affected'. I don't even understand what epidemiologists you guys are blaming for the stay at home orders. Not one of them has any actual authority. It's this weird boogeyman. Aren't you supposed to be upset at Trump/governors? As long as the virus is around, you can open up all you want ,but not many people will go, except those they watch Fox News maybe. People will go to work, perhaps wearing masks and with precautions (which is what Imam doing right now) and than GTFH (Get the fuck home). Right now, the government should really get everything moving to get a humongous Testing capability installed everywhere. - in every drug store or larger work place, schools etc. That is the only way avoid flying blind and getting data (people with symptoms 1-2weeks after the fact and after they infected a bunch of others. Until this is in place the social distancing will be with us and every activity or business that involves larger groups can’t really operate without severe limitation or not all.
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 Additional animated perspective: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-rapid-increase-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-in-one-graphic.html excellent graphic! We finally agree on something! Though I wonder if for different reasons... :-X Hopefully this won't be the last time!
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 Additional animated perspective: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-rapid-increase-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-in-one-graphic.html excellent graphic! We finally agree on something! Though I wonder if for different reasons... :-X Hopefully this won't be the last time! Fingers crossed!
Guest cherzeca Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 @MDs of cobf, Any thoughts or anecdotes on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat cv? Thanks If it worked as well as Trump thinks it does, you wouldn't be seeing 1700+ daily deaths. Invert, always invert. can you report a poster for abject stupidity? not to mention taking the name of a great investor in vain by mere association You are a treasure! hidden treasure, mostly. but you are a disgrace, which is obvious to all. you want to talk about the therapeutic effects of plaq/z-pack, I am ready to do so. but you dont have a clue, do you
Guest cherzeca Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/ag-barr-draconian-coronavirus-restrictions-should-be-reevaluated/ Barr: “I think, you know, when this period of time at the end of April expires, I think we have to allow people to adapt more than we have and not just tell people to go home and hide under the bed, but allow them to use other ways of social distancing and other means to protect themselves,” Barr told Laura Ingraham." common sense
Cigarbutt Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 more sanity from Dr. Wittkowski...https://www.aier.org/article/stand-up-for-your-rights-says-professor-knut-m-wittkowski/ posted especially for Dalal Nice find --- and facinating food for thought: ... herd immunity ... If we had herd immunity now, there couldn’t be a second wave in autumn. Herd immunity lasts for a couple of years, typically, and that’s why the last SARS epidemic we had in 2003, it lasted 15 years for enough people to become susceptible again so that a new epidemic could spread of a related virus. Because typically, there is something that requires cross-immunity, so if you were exposed to one of the SARS viruses, you are less likely to fall ill with another SARS virus. So, if we had herd immunity, we wouldn’t have a second wave. However, if we are preventing herd immunity from developing, it is almost guaranteed that we have a second wave as soon as either we stop the social distancing or the climate changes with winter coming or something like that…. There are several assumptions held that do not fit with previous or present facts. The 2003 SARS epidemic was contained in the US. From CDC: "In the United States, only eight persons were laboratory-confirmed as SARS cases. There were no SARS-related deaths in the United States. All of the eight persons with laboratory-confirmed SARS had traveled to areas where SARS-CoV transmission was occurring." From this and other seroconversion data, herd immunity was not attained from SARS. This idea that cross immunity may exist from previous exposures to benign CVs is interesting but benign CVs are not that widespread and behave similarly to influenza. The basic problem for the COVID-19 is that it behaves in a bipartisan way (!) which may explain why it needs a bipartisan solution and why the discussion here gets so heated (?). From a scientific standpoint, this concept was described for SARS (the SARS paradox and tip of the iceberg concept of disease). SARS had a strong propensity to make people very sick which is very bad for the person getting it but good for the population because containment becomes easier to implement. The challenge for COVID-19 is that it behaves as a hybrid between SARS and typical influenzas in the sense that it is a relatively efficient killer (especially in groups at risk) while not severe enough to automatically raise barriers. The context of the host (1-at risk group being a large part of the population and being meshed, to a significant degree, with potential spreaders and 2-essentially absent immunity and no vaccine to start with) also potentiates the bad characteristics of COVID-19. This is why containment is very hard to achieve and why mitigation efforts may require a measured and gradual approach that will include a certain amount of tolerance for continuous community transmission in different areas. A lot is unknown but, with the present trajectory, this kind of compromise may in fact prevent reaching herd immunity. It's some kind of tradeoff. Assuming gradual genetic drift attenuation of the virus and no additional waves, it looks like the economic impact will continue to be felt for a few months, although to a gradually lower degree. It won't be a straight line though and even if the patient eventually heals, one has to wonder about the potential pre-existing and continuing comorbidities. All the central injections of $ are like steroids used to decrease lung inflammation. In these cases, steroids can help but the final outcome lies with the host's starting point and capacity to mount an immune response. I have a hard time seeing the patient discharged in a better shape compared to when admitted.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 "The context of the host (1-at risk group being a large part of the population and being meshed, to a significant degree, with potential spreaders and 2-essentially absent immunity and no vaccine to start with) also potentiates the bad characteristics of COVID-19." say what?
Cigarbutt Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 ^COVID-19 entered the American continent where the population profile included a heterogeneous mix of recipients with chronic systemic weaknesses (health risk factors) and no built-in immunity protection. An interesting parallel could be made with the arrival of European ‘visitors’ when they landed on this continent a few centuries and scores ago and transmitted their own set of foreign microbes. I wonder if the first settlers would not have preferred a flatter curve, given a choice or knowledge. Of course, the winners write history and some could argue that this was Manifest Destiny. What you propose (I understand and even appreciate some of the rationale behind this), in order to reach herd immunity, is to supposedly protect the extra weak, expose the weak and go through a period of relatively elevated deaths and some mortality shift to the young. This would be, in essence, unavoidable. Under that scenario, most people who would need to be back in action (low income service jobs, including beneficiary attendants to the institutionalized elderly), in comparison to white collars working from home, would be directly exposed to a disproportionate degree, as vectors of the virus and as sick recipients. There would be ways to alleviate this and perhaps, under unusual circumstances and luck, the outcome could be mitigated to some degree but there is no question, at least in my humble mind, that there would be a significant social cost that would not be evenly distributed. Is this the kind of society you want? (open-ended question) I think it is fair to consider reaching herd immunity but I’d say it requires that you (and others who don’t stand to benefit) accept what comes with the package. Magical thinking won’t do the trick here.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 "What you propose (I understand and even appreciate some of the rationale behind this), in order to reach herd immunity, is to supposedly protect the extra weak, expose the weak and go through a period of relatively elevated deaths and some mortality shift to the young. This would be, in essence, unavoidable." I wouldn't want to expose the weak. we knew very early that average mortality ages were high (75-80), so we should have focused on elderly. we also knew the as a respiratory inflammation, not being able to get O2 into your blood stream creates big issues for other other underlying conditions, so we should have focused on those with organ issues/diabetes etc. this was a very simple analysis to make. I also compare covid death numbers not to some ideal, such as zero deaths, but to a normal flu season of 10,000-50,000 US deaths (even with a predictive vaccine), which we find acceptable a priori. so there will be deaths. while I cant know for sure, it seems to me that we are being advised by so-called experts who cut their teeth on HIV, which is far more deadly but in principle far more mitigable (safe sex) than covid...so we used the wrong paradigm. avoid social interaction (not safe sex but safe distance, which meant stay at home) for a deadly virus...except HIV is far more deadly than covid
RichardGibbons Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 Further to your point, cherzeca, I actually think the comparable disease isn't HIV, but ebola--I imagine that was more of focus for experts recently than HIV. If ebola were airborne and transmissible by asymptomatic people, you could justify doing almost anything to prevent the spread.
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